The way Kerry keeps bringing up bin Laden makes me wonder...

[shetline]

Kerry obviously wants to get the point across that Bush's priorities are wrong, putting so many resources into Iraq when the "real fight", in Kerry's opinion, is in Afghanistan, and the most important enemy is Al Qaeda.

But Kerry doesn't leave it at just that. He keeps specifically mentioning Bush's failure to get Osama bin Laden. Personally, I think bin Laden himself has far more symbolic value at this point than real strategic value, but that's not my concern at the moment.

What bothers me is this: What if Bush does pull off an "October Surprise" and he pulls bin Laden out of a hat? Wouldn't Kerry be screwed, skewered on his own rhetoric which would inevitably be thrown back in his face?

Why should Kerry risk this? Why hasn't he simply talked in more general terms about Al Qaeda and the terrorist network, leaving bin Laden specifically out of it? Does using bin Laden's name add that much more rhetorical and emotional force to Kerry's case against Bush to be worth the risk?

Or, if you'll pardon me going a bit tin-foil-hattish here, does Kerry know something he isn't telling us? Might Kerry be privy to some intelligence that makes him certain that bin Laden simply can't be pulled out of a hat anytime soon if at all?

[shetline]

PS: Could some kind moderator please change "bring" to "bringing" in the title of this thread? Thanks!

[pfflam]

If OBL shows up in October it would be simply too good to believe . . . I'm not sure it would work, too manyquestions too many people would ask: why now? after all this time

[sammi jo]

Or, if you'll pardon me going a bit tin-foil-hattish here, does Kerry know something he isn't telling us? Might Kerry be privy to some intelligence that makes him certain that bin Laden simply can't be pulled out of a hat anytime soon if at all? [/B]

They pulled him out of a hat shortly after 9-11, if you recall that notorious videotape "found in Kandahar, Afghanistan". That tape was a fake, and a terrible fake at that, but it was good enough for the majority. The administration, if it wants to serve up bin Laden on a silver platter in front of the American people", can do just that, dead or alive. As long as he's a tall middle-aged person from Afghanistan with a long beard, then we got our man. Who is going to question their word?

[Towel]

About a month ago, I opined in a thread that it wasn't surprising Kerry hadn't pushed the Osama angle up till them, because doing so only set him up to get flattened if Osama was captured. The time to start bringing it up is when you're close enough to the election that Bush can't avoid serious suspicion of foul play if Osama suddenly appears.

Sounds like Kerry thinks now's the right time to go for it. Assuming he knows as much as us, he can't control whether Bush pulls Osama out of a hat. Bush can hardly be hurt by capturing Osama, whether of not Kerry was making an issue of it. But it's now close enough that a sudden capture would raise eyebrows, especially after Kerry begins suddenly hammering away about Osama. If there's no Osama, Kerry scores lots of big points - "where's Osama" is a powerful, resonant argument. If Osama does appear, the only way to deflate the bounce it will give Bush is to try to raise eyebrows, and making a major campaign issue of it will help do that. Kerry obviously made a tough choice - bang on Osama, hard, now. I would expect to hear a lot more of this, since once he's committed to doing it, the louder the better.

[segovius]

There is no way on earth that they could have Osama under wraps and waiting for a coup de theatre.

Firstly, Bush would have played the card within minutes of his capture - and if not then there are many occasions since where it has been necessary.

Secondly, and more importantly, if anyone thinks that such a feat could be pulled off without it becoming at least a rumour in the ME then they really are worrying unnecessarily.

Basically, there is no way they could keep the lid on it - Kerry knows this. Do you really think he wouldn't here a whisper about it in whatever circles he or his minions move in ?

Also, ponder this: they are feverishly building up Zarqawi as the bogeyman to threaten Joe Public with now. It's reached saturation levels - remember when everything was 'al Qaeda' from the DC sniper, to powercuts to your granny's missing cat ?

Well, that's when they believed they'd get OBL. If they had him that particular propaganda dial would still be turned to 11.

It isn't. Zarqawi is the daddy now - ergo: they don't have Osama. They may have Zarqawi - think of those reports of 'high level al-Qaeda (number 2 or something ?) caught in Pakistan a few months back. All over the TV and your local rag like a cheap suit and then next day nothing, nada. And then curiously, Zarqawi starts popping up all over everywhere like a rash, despite his missing leg.

If Bush pulls anyone out of the hat (and it is the kind of cheap stunt he would pull) it will be Zarqawi. Of course, that will mean they've been lying about his omnipresence throughout Iraq but then they don't care about that do they ?

Macavity's a mystery cat he's called the hidden paw.......

[shetline]

Originally posted by segovius
There is no way on earth that they could have Osama under wraps and waiting for a coup de theatre.
No, I don't think this is too likely. There's still the possibility, however, that this October would be when, just by chance, Osama happens to be caught. With Osama still at large, and no reason to rule out the possibility of him being caught soon, Kerry's bin Laden-baiting seems a little riskier than it has to be, since I think Kerry could get the same mileage out of talking about Al Qaeda in general without mentioning Osama.

So, it's not a possible bin Laden-out-of-a-hat trick which gives me a touch of TFHS (Tin Foil Hat Syndrome) as much as this: What if bin Laden is dead and Kerry knows this?

From shortly after the time of the Afghanistan invasion, when we stopped seeing Osama videos and pictures, and instead got nothing but increasingly rare audio-only recordings, of bad quality, and second-hand message deliveries, I've wondered if bin Laden had been killed, but that we've decided that keeping his death a secret was in the best strategic interest of the US.

I know Bush would love to crow that Osama had died. But think about the terrorism backlash that the news of his death could unleash. Perhaps Osama had even pre-arranged that his untimely death should be taken as a signal for some coordinated series of attacks.

It seems to me that the safest move in the event of Osama's death is to keep it secret. Let Osama's followers believe that their leader is hiding out somewhere, still on the run, still running things behind the scenes. We create a situation where Osama can quietly fade into legend, and if anyone begins to worry about his death, it's a slow and uncertain revelation with no definitive moment to rally around, no definitive state of martyrdom.

If this is true, and Kerry is privy to such secrets, might Kerry knowingly bait Bush with this knowledge, safely aware that Bush simply can't produce Osama and can't reveal why?

[segovius]

Originally posted by shetline
No, I don't think this is too likely. There's still the possibility, however, that this October would be when, just by chance, Osama happens to be caught. With Osama still at large, and no reason to rule out the possibility of him being caught soon, Kerry's bin Laden-baiting seems a little riskier than it has to be, since I think Kerry could get the same mileage out of talking about Al Qaeda in general without mentioning Osama.

So, it's not a possible bin Laden-out-of-a-hat trick which gives me a touch of TFHS (Tin Foil Hat Syndrome) as much as this: What if bin Laden is dead and Kerry knows this?

From shortly after the time of the Afghanistan invasion, when we stopped seeing Osama videos and pictures, and instead got nothing but increasingly rare audio-only recordings, of bad quality, and second-hand message deliveries, I've wondered if bin Laden had been killed, but that we've decided that keeping his death a secret was in the best strategic interest of the US.

I know Bush would love to crow that Osama had died. But think about the terrorism backlash that the news of his death could unleash. Perhaps Osama had even pre-arranged that his untimely death should be taken as a signal for some coordinated series of attacks.

It seems to me that the safest move in the event of Osama's death is to keep it secret. Let Osama's followers believe that their leader is hiding out somewhere, still on the run, still running things behind the scenes. We create a situation where Osama can quietly fade into legend, and if anyone begins to worry about his death, it's a slow and uncertain revelation with no definitive moment to rally around, no definitive state of martyrdom.

If this is true, and Kerry is privy to such secrets, might Kerry knowingly bait Bush with this knowledge, safely aware that Bush simply can't produce Osama and can't reveal why?

Yes, I think you are near the truth here. I was thinking along similar lines.

Perhaps they even had Osama and he died in custody for one reason or another. He was/is very ill with a kidney disease apparently and I think he cannot survive on the run without medical treatment.

That way Kerry would know and taunt Bush as you say - certainly there is an air of that in his jibes and really there is no way that the Kerry campaign would gamble and knowingly open themselves up to this kind of achilles heel. Imo anyway.

[Fellowship]

Originally posted by segovius
Yes, I think you are near the truth here. I was thinking along similar lines.

Perhaps they even had Osama and he died in custody for one reason or another. He was/is very ill with a kidney disease apparently and I think he cannot survive on the run without medical treatment.

That way Kerry would know and taunt Bush as you say - certainly there is an air of that in his jibes and really there is no way that the Kerry campaign would gamble and knowingly open themselves up to this kind of achilles heel. Imo anyway.

The only problem with all this is this:

Let's say that Kerry is elected and then it is found that both he and Bush "knew" OBL was dead and both carried on as if "they were ignorant of the situation".

This does not exactly give Kerry a boost of public integrity confidence when he will pretend to not know OBL is dead "playing along with Bush of all people"

That is just not likely.

It is possible I grant you but I think Kerry would also be asked some questions if it is found that OBL died and it happened as you speculate in your posts above.

Fellowship

[segovius]

Originally posted by Fellowship
The only problem with all this is this:

Let's say that Kerry is elected and then it is found that both he and Bush "knew" OBL was dead and both carried on as if "they were ignorant of the situation".

This does not exactly give Kerry a boost of public integrity confidence when he will pretend to not know OBL is dead "playing along with Bush of all people"

That is just not likely.

It is possible I grant you but I think Kerry would also be asked some questions if it is found that OBL died and it happened as you speculate in your posts above.

Fellowship

Well, it's all speculation really isn't it. Everything.

In the end in the 'real world' one should (imo) act according to one's conscience in voting (or anything else) and try to be sincere and uphold that in who and what one supports.

Speculation and conjecture is fun but I wouldn't base important choices on it and really we all should know that none of us will ever really know half of what is going on. All we can have is opinions.

As long as we don't take them for facts we should be ok.

</sanctimonious sermon>

[midwinter]

Kerry left himself an out, actually. When he mentions OBL, it's always in the context of misplaced priorities. It's not that we haven't found OBL. It's that we had a good chance to get OBL and Bush blew it, and then he diverted attention away from OBL to SH.

[Powerdoc]

Kerry pointed it out, that in his war against terrorism Bush hitted the wrong target.
The war against Iraq cost a lot of money, this money should have been use more efficiently for the war against terrorism.

Blair said some weeks ago, that Iraq has becoming an incubator for terrorism (it's not exactly his words, because it's translated from english to french to english) and that the help of many countrie to rebuild Iraq is welcome. People will judge if removing a bloody dictator, worth that price (money, deaths, more terrorism)

[Powerdoc]

Originally posted by midwinter
Kerry left himself an out, actually. When he mentions OBL, it's always in the context of misplaced priorities. It's not that we haven't found OBL. It's that we had a good chance to get OBL and Bush blew it, and then he diverted attention away from OBL to SH.

Unfortunately (and I don't think you will say otherwise) the death of OBL will not mean the end of Al Quaeda.

[segovius]

Originally posted by Powerdoc
People will judge if removing a bloody dictator, worth that price (money, deaths, more terrorism)

People have already judged.

The point is they can't do anything about it - we have dictators of our own and they are far more effective because they have an unpaid army of millions who will fight to their last breath to say that the dictator isn't a dictator.

But it revolves just the same...

[Powerdoc]

Originally posted by segovius
People have already judged.

The point is they can't do anything about it - we have dictators of our own and they are far more effective because they have an unpaid army of millions who will fight to their last breath to say that the dictator isn't a dictator.

But it revolves just the same...

I will not follow you here Sego :wow: :D

[segovius]

Originally posted by Powerdoc
I will not follow you here Sego :wow: :D

Excellent - that's what we need more of Powerdoc: Independent Individualism !

:D

[midwinter]

Originally posted by Powerdoc
Unfortunately (and I don't think you will say otherwise) the death of OBL will not mean the end of Al Quaeda.

Are you kidding? The death of OBL will mean the end of terrorism forever! ;)