Time to Call the Election [Archive]

SpcMs

11-01-2004, 04:43 PM

I should tell you i don't live in America and my opinion means jack shit. But since you asked:
Personally, i'm strongly against Bush and somewhat for Kerry. Untill a few days ago, however, i was convinced Bush is gonna win this with ease, scaring people into voting for him. Somewhat sadly, Kerry has resorted to the same tactics lately, and the ironic thing is, i think it will pay off.
Here's the deal: whoever wins Florida will win the election. And my gut feeling tells me it will be Kerry. Although i'm very sceptical about my gut feeling. So there :D.

Northgate

11-01-2004, 04:52 PM

Popular Vote: Kerry 53% - Bush 46% - Nader 1%

Electoral Vote: Kerry 280 - Bush 248 - Nader 0

BRussell

11-01-2004, 04:54 PM

Originally posted by Northgate
Electoral Vote: Kerry 285 - Bush 270 - Nader 0 So both Kerry and Bush become president. ;)

Northgate

11-01-2004, 04:58 PM

Originally posted by BRussell
So both Kerry and Bush become president. ;)

Ha ha. I never was good at math. Fixed it. ;)

Popular Vote: Kerry 53% - Bush 46% - Nader 1%

Electoral Vote: Kerry 280 - Bush 248 - Nader 0

Whisper

11-01-2004, 05:00 PM

I predict that it's too close to call right now and we won't really have a clue until the exit polls start getting released.

Wrong Robot

11-01-2004, 05:00 PM

When was the last time a president won majority? clinton's first term?

I know he didn't have majority his second term, nor did bush have majority his first term.

what about bush sr. and reagan did they get majority?

electoral-vote.com (which appears to be DoSed or something right now) had kerry with 298 and bush with 231 today, yesterday Kerry had (rounded down numbers) 280 to bush's 240, and before that bush had 280 to kerry's 240.

Given that new voters tend to vote overwhelmingly for the challenger, it would seem like kerry has this in the bag. But I dunno, I'm not making any calls.

Northgate

11-01-2004, 05:03 PM

Originally posted by Whisper
I predict that it's too close to call right now and we won't really have a clue until the exit polls start getting released.

Come on! Stick your neck out! That's what this thread is for. Predictions baby!

superkarate monkeydeathcar

11-01-2004, 05:05 PM

Originally posted by Wrong Robot
When was the last time a president won majority? clinton's first term?

I know he didn't have majority his second term, nor did bush have majority his first term.

what about bush sr. and reagan did they get majority?

clinton's second term had a majority, no? the first term was the election with ross perot.

superkarate monkeydeathcar

11-01-2004, 05:07 PM

his second term he only got 49% so i take it back.

BRussell

11-01-2004, 05:08 PM

Clinton had 43% in 92 and 49% in 96. Bush got 48% in 2000. I suspect someone will get to 50% this time around, just because third party challenges seem weaker this time.

Wrong Robot

11-01-2004, 05:14 PM

Originally posted by BRussell
Clinton had 43% in 92 and 49% in 96. Bush got 48% in 2000. I suspect someone will get to 50% this time around, just because third party challenges seem weaker this time.

true, but 55% still seems *very* unlikely no matter who you are.

superkarate monkeydeathcar

11-01-2004, 05:17 PM

another good prediction would be "how many americans (total) will vote tomorrow"?
I think turnout will be massive.....120 million.

BRussell

11-01-2004, 05:29 PM

Originally posted by Wrong Robot
true, but 55% still seems *very* unlikely no matter who you are. Oh absolutely. No one's getting more than 51%, IMO. But it still could be a rout in the electoral college.

Here's (http://election.princeton.edu/) a prediction based on analyses of turnout and undecided voters. It shows Kerry winning with 50%-48%, but with 323 electoral votes. :wow: It does make sense, with so many large states so close. If Kerry is being underestimated by the polls due to turnout and undecideds, he could basically win all the swing states - Florida, Ohio, PA, Minn., Wisc., NM, NV, etc. Even Colorado if things go really well. Same with Bush, if gay marriage gets people going, or the war-time president thing, or even just white turnout is really high. He could absolute crush Kerry, winning all of those states above, and leaving Kerry with New England and California. It could happen.

applenut

11-01-2004, 05:29 PM

Originally posted by superkarate monkeydeathcar
another good prediction would be "how many americans (total) will vote tomorrow"?
I think turnout will be massive.....120 million.

no way.

are there even that many registered voters?

Wrong Robot

11-01-2004, 05:35 PM

Originally posted by BRussell
Oh absolutely. No one's getting more than 51%, IMO. But it still could be a rout in the electoral college.

Here's (http://election.princeton.edu/) a prediction based on analyses of turnout and undecided voters. It shows Kerry winning with 50%-48%, but with 323 electoral votes. :wow: It does make sense, with so many large states so close. If Kerry is being underestimated by the polls due to turnout and undecideds, he could basically win all the swing states - Florida, Ohio, PA, Minn., Wisc., NM, NV, etc. Even Colorado if things go really well. Same with Bush, if gay marriage gets people going, or the war-time president thing, or even just white turnout is really high. He could absolute crush Kerry, winning all of those states above, and leaving Kerry with New England and California. It could happen.

I don't think bush can crush kerry, at best it'll be another snafu like before.

given that people tend to vote against the incumbent when in doubt, and also there are more registered voters now that registered specifically to boot bush.

eitherway, I wonder how the candidates are feeling right now.

Wrong Robot

11-01-2004, 05:36 PM

Originally posted by applenut
no way.

are there even that many registered voters?

a stinging little factoid most people forget when they say the country is split right down the middle 50/50 blah blah blah...when in reality it's more akin to 25% kerry 25% bush and 50% "what time is trading spouses on again?"

lolo

11-01-2004, 05:43 PM

I predict that Kerry will win. 273 vs. 265.

trumptman

11-01-2004, 05:57 PM

I'm too lazy to predict the exact electoral count.

I predicted the national percentage months ago in a thread like this and I'm sticking too it.

Bush - 49%
Kerry - 46%

Bush will get somewhere between 280-300 electoral votes.

Republicans will keep the House and make gains in the Senate including Colorado. Daschle will lose.

Terry will be fired on Wednesday.

Nick

hardeeharhar

11-01-2004, 06:04 PM

I say Bush will have a blow out. He will rock the body politic. 540 Electoral VOTES!!! YEAAAAAAH!!

Ahem.

superkarate monkeydeathcar

11-01-2004, 06:16 PM

Originally posted by applenut
no way.

are there even that many registered voters?

The last presidential election had over a hundred million people cast ballots.
With record number registrations, and an election that actually appears to be holding peoples attention more than the latest episode of SURVIVOR, I don't think 120 million is out of the realm of possibility.

InactionMan

11-01-2004, 06:22 PM

Bush will win a squeaker. Democrats all over America will go bonkers. Millions will flee to Canada. The Canadian government will be forced to set up massive refugee camps at all major border crossings. Thousands of Americans will tough out an especially nasty Canadian winter.

Placebo

11-01-2004, 06:23 PM

I think Bush will win.

And I'm not thrilled at the prospect, but I'll have to live with it.

jimmac

11-01-2004, 06:53 PM

If Kerry wins I predict we won't have to put up with Common Man much longer.;)

bunge

11-01-2004, 06:57 PM

Most factors point to a Kerry victory tomorrow.

I'm getting the feeling that he's going to win the swing states, but not necessarily Pennsylvania. Rain might play a factor here. I think he'll have a "comfortable" electoral victory, and close to 50% of the popular vote. Will he get over 50%? I say no.

Dems get the presidency while congress stays republican.

shetline

11-01-2004, 07:23 PM

Take a look at this from electoral-vote.com:

http://www.shetline.com/img/elector-vote-pred.png

(I've captured the above image and I'm hosting it myself, because electoral-vote.com is getting hammered now! If you can get to the site, the original image is interactive, revealing details about each state -- exact numbers, polling source, results from 2000, etc., when you point at each state.)

When I look at that map, I also consider the following things:

Most of the polls in 2000 were off 2-4 points in favor of Bush. There's good reason to believe that the same bias and more still exists, including the fact that cell-phone only voters, who are mostly young, urban, and lean democratic, have been left out of most of the polling.

GOTV (Get Out The Vote). All indications I've seen are that the Democratic GOTV operation is better than ever, and doing much better than the Republican effort. Newly registered Democrats are handily outstripping newly registered Republicans. As anecdotal evidence, I can say that here in NH Dems are out in force. I see Kerry supporters all the time out on the streets waving Kerry/Edwards signs. On the other hand, I've barely seen any Republican effort except for bumper stickers and yard signs. In Manchester yesterday, I saw only a couple of Republican protesters in a sea of Kerry visibility people, all lining the streets of Manchester during the Kerry rally there. From what I heard, there were a few more protesters than that who I missed, but still they were majorly overwhelmed.

Democrats want this election, BADLY. Maybe some of the die-hard Christian Right is just as fired up, but I don't feel like the overall Republican drive to get out and vote holds a candle to the Democratic commitment to do so.

Considering all of the above, I doubt that any state shown as blue will in reality turn red, I think the exact ties (CO and NM, total of 14 EV) are likely to go to Kerry, and it won't surprise me at all for one or two "Barely Bush" states to turn blue too.

I also believe tend to believe, based on the skew I suspect exists in most polls, that there's enough of a comfortable margin to overcome Republican RTV (Repress The Vote) efforts (Republican plans to have partisan amateurs challenge voter elibility at polls in Ohio was struck down as unconstitutional today), and enough of a margin of error to overcome one or two suprise losses to Bush, even a big state like Florida.

Northgate

11-01-2004, 07:29 PM

Originally posted by shetline
Take a look at this from electoral-vote.com:

When I look at that map, I also consider the following things:

Most of the polls in 2000 were off 2-4 points in favor of Bush. There's good reason to believe that the same bias and more still exists, including the fact that cell-phone only voters, who are mostly young, urban, and lean democratic, have been left out of most of the polling.

GOTV (Get Out The Vote). All indications I've seen are that the Democratic GOTV operation is better than ever, and doing much better than the Republican effort. Newly registered Democrats are handily outstripping newly registered Republicans. As anecdotal evidence, I can say that here in NH Dems are out in force. I see Kerry supporters all the time out on the streets waving Kerry/Edwards signs. On the other hand, I've barely seen any Republican effort except for bumper stickers and yard signs. In Manchester yesterday, I saw only a couple of Republican protesters in a sea of Kerry visibility people, all lining the streets of Manchester during the Kerry rally there. From what I heard, there were a few more protesters than that who I missed, but still they were majorly overwhelmed.

Democrats want this election, BADLY. Maybe some of the die-hard Christian Right is just as fired up, but I don't feel like the overall Republican drive to get out and vote holds a candle to the Democratic commitment to do so.

Considering all of the above, I doubt that any state shown as blue will in reality turn red, I think the exact ties (CO and NM, total of 14 EV) are likely to go to Kerry, and it won't surprise me at all for one or two "Barely Bush" states to turn blue too.

I also believe tend to believe, based on the skew I suspect exists in most polls, that there's enough of a comfortable margin to overcome Republican RTV (Repress The Vote) efforts (Republican plans to have partisan amateurs challenge voter elibility at polls in Ohio was struck down as unconstitutional today), and enough of a margin of error to overcome one or two suprise losses to Bush, even a big state like Florida.

Well done.

SDW2001

11-01-2004, 07:54 PM

Originally posted by Northgate
Well done.

No, it's called wishful thinking. No way Kerry is getting 318. No way. Republican's GOTV and ground tactics have been better than ever.

faust9

11-01-2004, 08:16 PM

Originally posted by SDW2001
No, it's called wishful thinking. No way Kerry is getting 318. No way. Republican's GOTV and ground tactics have been better than ever.

Better than ever is not a comparission to what the Dems have done. It's your form of wishful thinking here SDW. Better than ever would be in reference to past republicna efforts. The Dems tronced the repubs in voter sign up thus the republican plans in multiple states to slow down the voting process.

Kerry will win-311 EV. That's all that matters

shetline

11-01-2004, 08:25 PM

Originally posted by SDW2001
No, it's called wishful thinking. No way Kerry is getting 318. No way. Republican's GOTV and ground tactics have been better than ever.
I'll agree more despicable than ever... but I still don't think it's enough to match what the Dems are doing, nor to match the higher enthusiasm and dedication of the Kerry voters themselves.

Update: The Ohio vote Republican vote supressing squads (AKA "challengers") have now received the OK from the Ohio State Supreme Court to go ahead with there plans to try to scare off voters and slow down voting in Ohio's predominatly black and urban voting districts. Whether or not the federal court decision disallowing this action takes precedence over the state court is unclear to me at this point.

faust9

11-01-2004, 08:45 PM

Fox news predicts Kerry? http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/week_2004_10_31.php#003889

edit: this too: http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/000910.php

Gene Clean

11-01-2004, 08:53 PM

I predict that Kery will get around 300, and Ohio and most likely Florida will go to him.

tonton

11-01-2004, 08:56 PM

Originally posted by SDW2001
No, it's called wishful thinking. No way Kerry is getting 318. No way. Republican's GOTV and ground tactics have been better than ever.

I'm starting to become more confident. I think it's going to be a blowout. Kerry will win states we completely don't expect him to win. Arizona. Iowa. Missouri. Nevada. Colorado.

Bush will win Pennsylvania and *gasp* Florida (there will be plausible accusations of massive voting irregularities).

Scott

11-01-2004, 09:08 PM

I think you'll see largely the same result from 2000 with a % tilt to Bush.

trick fall

11-01-2004, 09:08 PM

I think Kerry has the chance to have a blowout. If its close it could go either way, especially since the Republiscums will do anything to maintain power.:smokey:

Scott

11-01-2004, 09:21 PM

How can you people think there's going to be a "blow out" when the polls show it to be a statistical tie?

trick fall

11-01-2004, 09:34 PM

Personally I was referring to the potential for an electoral college blowout. The popular vote could be very close, yet still result in an electoral college blowout no?

tonton

11-01-2004, 09:36 PM

Originally posted by Scott
How can you people think there's going to be a "blow out" when the polls show it to be a statistical tie?

Because the polls are still using historical data to predict voter turnout, and adjusting their numbers accordingly. This election will not follow historical trend.

trumptman

11-01-2004, 09:44 PM

Originally posted by faust9
Better than ever is not a comparission to what the Dems have done. It's your form of wishful thinking here SDW. Better than ever would be in reference to past republicna efforts. The Dems tronced the repubs in voter sign up thus the republican plans in multiple states to slow down the voting process.

Kerry will win-311 EV. That's all that matters

Sorry faust but it is you and the others who have the fanciful, wishful thinking. Most of these late breaking polls that even have Kerry gaining some ground is basically the poll-meisters tweaking their likely voter models and giving most undecideds to Kerry. Even with that, Bush leads by a couple points.

The Democrats have done better than Republicans in sign ups in some areas. However the Republican efforts were true party efforts with follow up contacts involving face time, true confirmation of addresses and people, etc. Democratic efforts were largely third party, by people paid per signature (with large numbers of false returns amazingly enough) and no follow ups.

The Republican GOTV effort has already had a very successful result. We've had the 2002 elections which featured the Republicans making unprecidented midterm gains including retaking the Senate. Polls have shown that most Republicans are energetic and voting FOR Bush. They have also shown that most Democrats endorse Kerry but are mainly voting for him because he isn't Bush.

All these little incidentals you've brought up are just spin and you don't even realize it. They are there to give guys like you a little hope since the polls haven't broken your way for months.

Nick

trumptman

11-01-2004, 09:46 PM

Originally posted by tonton
Because the polls are still using historical data to predict voter turnout, and adjusting their numbers accordingly. This election will not follow historical trend.

The historical data you mention entirely mispredicted the Republican results for 2002. If anything, these polls dramatically underestimate Republican results. They did in 2002.

Nick

tonton

11-01-2004, 09:49 PM

Originally posted by trumptman
The historical data you mention entirely mispredicted the Republican results for 2002. If anything, these polls dramatically underestimate Republican results. They did in 2002.

Nick

2002 was the first election following 9/11.

InactionMan

11-01-2004, 10:36 PM

Originally posted by Scott
How can you people think there's going to be a "blow out" when the polls show it to be a statistical tie?

I know it a different country, different political system but in Canada's last Federal election the majority of polls indicated the Conservatives would win a majority government. This was the weekend before the election. In the end, the Liberals won a minority and the Conservatives barely go a seat east of Manitoba. The only polls I'll trust are the exit polls. Nothing else matters. This could still be a blow out for either side.

Anna Mated

11-01-2004, 10:39 PM

Originally posted by Scott
How can you people think there's going to be a "blow out" when the polls show it to be a statistical tie?

Because we know that polls have a GOP bias, therefore to reach a tie in the polls means that alot more people have expressed a preference for Kerry over Bush.

Sadly for you, that means that as the elections are not statistically biased, more people will vote for Kerry.

bunge

11-01-2004, 10:41 PM

Originally posted by Scott
I think you'll see largely the same result from 2000 with a % tilt to Bush.

So you think Kerry will win too huh?

jimmac

11-01-2004, 11:56 PM

Originally posted by SDW2001
No, it's called wishful thinking. No way Kerry is getting 318. No way. Republican's GOTV and ground tactics have been better than ever.

He, he, he, he, !:lol:

BRussell

11-02-2004, 12:17 AM

I thought this (http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2genT.htm) was interesting. It has all the polls from the final days of the 2000 election. There are a grand total of 2, out of about 20 in the final days, that show a Gore lead. Bush is leading by 4 or 5 on average.

bunge

11-02-2004, 12:29 AM

Originally posted by BRussell
I thought this (http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2genT.htm) was interesting. It has all the polls from the final days of the 2000 election. There are a grand total of 2, out of about 20 in the final days, that show a Gore lead. Bush is leading by 4 or 5 on average.

That's insane. But that's why I think Kerry is actually ahead even before the undecided.

Kirkland

11-02-2004, 12:58 AM

My Final Election Prediction (http://kirkmcpike.com/archives/000169.html), explained in mind-numbing detail regarding how I've calculated my results (transparency is good).

My abstract:

Bush win the popular vote 49.3% to 48.9%.

Kerry wins the Electoral College 286 to 252.

Wrong Robot

11-02-2004, 01:09 AM

/\ whoa, you put a lot of time into that, I commend you for it.

Kirkland

11-02-2004, 01:38 AM

Thanks.

In my own defense, I'm not just a political junkie, but do intend to actually be a political scientist. :)

Harald

11-02-2004, 04:43 AM

I think Kerry is going to win.

jimmac

11-02-2004, 08:25 AM

I think it's almost too close to call but I think ( hope ) that Kerry will win.

On a side note.......

http://money.cnn.com/2004/11/02/news/economy/retail_sales.reut/index.htm

I think we all would like to stop reading disappointing news like this. I think if Kerry wins we'll finally be able to.

Placebo

11-02-2004, 08:27 AM

Originally posted by Harald
I think Kerry is going to win.
I hope you're right.

shetline

11-02-2004, 08:44 AM

I just came back from voting, and the turnout is looking great. It wasn't a long wait to vote -- took me maybe 15 minutes -- but my ward's polling station has always been very fast and efficient.

What really showed the turn-out was how cars were lined up far up and down the street from the elementary school where we vote. I've never seen more than a few cars spill-over from the school's parking lot before, and never had to park so far away.

If turn-out favors Democrats, and I'm pretty sure that it will, Kerry is doing GREAT here.

From 12-8pm I'll be driving around getting more people in to vote, so I'll be doing what I can to make the turn-out even bigger. :) :D

Powerdoc

11-02-2004, 08:51 AM

I believe that we will know the name of the new president of the US before december. ( a huge improvment compared to 2000)

groverat

11-02-2004, 09:03 AM

If Kerry wins electoral and Bush wins popular I will laugh very hard for a very long time. The irony would be too perfect.

That said, Bush wins by a lot. I don't really think it will be very close. I feel very fatalistic and that's my only real logic in making that prediction.

I hope Kerry wins, and then I hope the progressive element of society that was awoken does not go back to sleep and instead keeps pressure on those in power. I have a feeling that is likely, since so many are anti-Bush and not necessarily pro-Kerry.