Projected winner? How does that work then?

[digitaldave]

OK, first off, I'm not from the US, so I don't really know the finer details of how your election system works, but I've picked up a few bits over the last few days. But...

Could someone please explain to me what is meant by 'projected winner'? For example, various news sites are listing projected wins for the respective candidates, and basing the theoretical result on that. But are these 'projected wins' just predictions based on exit polls, or are they something more precise, for example not all votes have been counted, but one candidate already has a majority greater than the amount of as yet uncounted votes?

Thanks :).

Dave.

[THT]

Originally posted by Dave Abrey
Could someone please explain to me what is meant by 'projected winner'? For example, various news sites are listing projected wins for the respective candidates, and basing the theoretical result on that. But are these 'projected wins' just predictions based on exit polls, or are they something more precise, for example not all votes have been counted, but one candidate already has a majority greater than the amount of as yet uncounted votes?

Each state is divided into many smaller "counties" and "districts". They individually report their results. The news organizations project a winner out of the actual vote results of those counties who report on time or early.

It takes an hour or two, or more, for all of the counties to report their results, but a winner can be projected based on the results of the counties reporting their results on time and previous voting patterns of the counties reporting late. If the early results show a insurmountable statistical lead, a winner can be declared.

[digitaldave]

Originally posted by THT
Each state is divided into many smaller "counties" and "districts". They individually report their results. The news organizations project a winner out of the actual vote results of those counties who report on time or early.

It takes an hour or two, or more, for all of the counties to report their results, but a winner can be projected based on the results of the counties reporting their results on time and previous voting patterns of the counties reporting late. If the early results show a insurmountable statistical lead, a winner can be declared.

Cool, thanks for clearing that up :). Like I suspected, the 'insurmountable statistical lead' comes in to play.

Cheers,

Dave.

[MCQ]

Link to CNN's methodology:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/misc/projected.html