Global Systemic Rupture

[Cosmos 1999]

I'd like to share somme information with you, about what could happen in the next months: a probable world economic and perhaps military crisis related to Iran nuclear weapons question, the upcoming Teheran Euro-based oil bourse and its implication on US$ and €, and the US economic retortion answer (end of publication of the M3 macro-economic indicator followed by an uncontrolled boost of "money printing") and possibly a US military answer too (unilaterally conducted without UN approbation).

Associate this with a current violent background: the Bush administration plan to use mini-nukes in such a conflict, strong Chinese opposition, US Army sinking in Irak, public opinions not in line with governments, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's last statements about Israel, the Al quaeda terrorism background... and you have different paths converging to what is known as a "historical node".

Just remember that Saddam Hussein did change its oil stock exchange from US Dollar to a Euro currency based bourse just before Irak invasion under "Weapons of Mass Destruction" official reasons. A "paper" currency like the dollar is only a "fiat money" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_currency), ie people must trust (use) that money in order to make that money strong.

ABSTRACT:
« The Laboratoire Europeen d'Anticipation Politique Europe 2020 (LEAP/E2020) now estimates to over 80% the probability that the week of March 20-26, 2006 will be the beginning of the most significant political crisis the world has known since the Fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989, together with an economic and financial crisis of a scope comparable with that of 1929. This last week of March 2006 will be the turning-point of a number of critical developments, resulting in an acceleration of all the factors leading to a major crisis, disregard any American or Israeli military intervention against Iran. In case such an intervention is conducted, the probability of a major crisis to start rises up to 100%, according to LEAP/E2020. »

Read the complete follow-on:
"EUROPE 2020 ALARM / Global Systemic Rupture - March 20-26, 2006: Iran/USA - Release of global world crisis" (http://www.europe2020.org/en/section_global/150206.htm)


LEAP/E2020 (http://www.europe2020.org/en/who.htm) is a think tanks group dedicated to European political anticipation. They are pretty serious as you can read who they are and what they've done in the past. They usually talk about european economy and political evolution, but this time their analysis has stronger implication worldwide.

[MarcUK]

It doesn't take a genius to work out that one little thing too many in the Middle East could tip the world into major economic disaster.

I hope you're all looking forward to $20 a gallon petrol prices.

[Northgate]

Good.

Because something needs to shake American out of it's shoulder shrugging attitude about oil dependence more than a good ol' crisis!

[Harald]

This is serious shit.

[shetline]

Can the crisis please wait a couple of weeks until after I get back from Egypt and Libya? I've been planning this vacation for two years now -- this is no time for a major GSR.

[Anders]

Originally posted by shetline
Can the crisis please wait a couple of weeks until after I get back from Egypt and Libya? I've been planning this vacation for two years now -- this is no time for a major GSR.

The solar thing?

ITS A SIGN!!!:wow: :wow: :wow: !!!!!11111eyeseyeseyeseyes

[trumptman]

Originally posted by MarcUK
It doesn't take a genius to work out that one little thing too many in the Middle East could tip the world into major economic disaster.

I hope you're all looking forward to $20 a gallon petrol prices.

Did you even read that? It had nothing to do with petrol and everything to do with currency.

Originally posted by Northgate
Good.

Because something needs to shake American out of it's shoulder shrugging attitude about oil dependence more than a good ol' crisis!

You're an ass. You've just kicked out your own teeth for nothing more than spite. This has NOTHING to do with oil in terms of use. The only role of oil is Iran forming the bourse which gives it the ability to manipulate currency. Your statement amounts to hoping for harm to the poorest of people.

Originally posted by Harald
This is serious shit.

It is but all we really get to decide is who's shit stinks worse because it is all play money now. Where are you going to run to in term fo currency. The Euro is a fiat currency just like the dollar.

Nick

[Cosmos 1999]

Originally posted by trumptman
It had nothing to do with petrol and everything to do with currency [...] The Euro is a fiat currency just like the dollar.
Nick
Exactly. In economic terms, a strong trusted currency (like the dollar) is called in French a "monnaie fiduciaire" which I translated directly here to "fiduciary money". It appears English language rather refers to the more appropriate term "fiat currency".
I edit my first post to reflect a more correct explanation.

There's a good English Wikipedia page about Fiat currency (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_currency).

[MarcUK]

Originally posted by trumptman
Did you even read that? It had nothing to do with petrol and everything to do with currency.


yes i did read it, and I was just making a side point. mmmK?

[Harald]

Originally posted by trumptman
Did you even read that? It had nothing to do with petrol and everything to do with currency.
Nick

Duh.

What do you think underpins the value of the dollar?

(Clue: it's what the article is about that you just read)

What do you think a devaluation of the dollar will do to prices?

You're not very good at joined-up thinking Nick, really, are you?

[trumptman]

Originally posted by Harald
Duh.What do you think underpins the value of the dollar?

What underpins the value of any fiat currency is scarcity and the willingness of other parties to accept it. This is true of all fiat currencies and if you believe that pricing oil in Euros will somehow allow the printing presses to run without recourse in Europe then you are wrong.

(Clue: it's what the article is about that you just read)

Clue: I still think you have a need for some understanding.

What do you think a devaluation of the dollar will do to prices?

It really depends on the relationships to other currencies and whether the country that has those currencies can endure an economic downturn by the United States with regard to buying all their crap.

There are not any other large economies I am aware of that have enough growth that they can basically absorb excessive imports and thus shed some of their growth to other nations.

So it isn't just say, dollar versus yen. The question is what happens to the yen when the dollar has adjust and Japan cannot count on an extra 100 billion of wealth being imported each year. It also means that when it is realized that the U.S. economy cannot sustain this that the 800 billion of U.S. treasuries Japan holds might be "revalued" as well. That revaluation and loss of wealth will affect the value of the yen as well. Who eats the loss of a trillion dollars and still has great currency value?

You can apply this with any country holding dollars. Part of the value of their own currency is based in part on the fact that they are net exporters and also hold billions in something considered valuable, U.S. dollars via treasury bonds. If they lose this value and are not a net exporter, their currency will reflect that just as bad if not worse than they dollar.

You're not very good at joined-up thinking Nick, really, are you?

If you're going to insult me, at least do it while buying me a pint.

Nick

[Harald]

Aha ...

The point is that the US currency is less of a fiat currency then others -- it's value is based upon oil. Petrodorrahs.

I know that the euro is also buggered when this happens, but only as a consequence of the total financial collapse caused by most of the banks in Asia debts becoming unfulfillable by anything but play money when the dollar becomes worthless.

The pound is UTTERLY fucked because the UK has so many dollars in reserve.

Sorry for the cheap insult.

But you're still wrong.

[trumptman]

Originally posted by Harald
Aha ...

The point is that the US currency is less of a fiat currency then others -- it's value is based upon oil. Petrodorrahs.


You can't be sort of fiat currency. The money is either backed by something or it is not. The dollar is not backed by petrodollars. All the fact that certain markets operate in dollars does is create a need for parties to keep some dollars on hand. This simply moves the scarcity issue come up a little further down the road. It does not eliminate it. All those Arabic nations holding dollars and bonds run into the same issues as Asian countries which is, where the hell do we spend these thing. Hence, why they want to buy businesses (like shipping ports) in the United States.

I know that the euro is also buggered when this happens, but only as a consequence of the total financial collapse caused by most of the banks in Asia debts becoming unfulfillable by anything but play money when the dollar becomes worthless.

What it shows is that NO currency, even that of the most powerful country on earth is above the nature of trade balance and currency manipulation. If a country refuses to allow the value of their own currency to adjust in order to maintain a trade advantage then an adjustment still occurs because eventually all the currency they are holding becomes worth less later down the line. The piper gets paid, it is just a matter of when.

And it isn't just the Euro that will be buggered. Every western government has been irresponsible with their currency and this has been the nature of currency since the dawn of time.

Sorry for the cheap insult.

Sorry that there is nothing new under the sun.

But you're still wrong.

Try again.
Nick

[Cosmos 1999]

Additional news following this curve: "Arab central banks move assets out of dollar" (http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article351127.ece) (by Philip Thornton from UK newspaper "The Independant", March 14th, 2006)

Now Syrian, and even Saudian banks in United Arab Emirates, are partially abandonating the dollar in a move to euro.

FIRST THREE PARAGRAPHS OF THE PAPER:
« Middle Eastern anger over the decision by the US to block a Dubai company from buying five of its ports hit the dollar yesterday as a number of central banks said they were considering switching reserves into euros.

The United Arab Emirates, which includes Dubai, said it was looking to move one-tenth of its dollar reserves into euros, while the governor of the Saudi Arabian central bank condemned the US move as "discrimination".

Separately, Syria responded to US sanctions against two of its banks by confirming plans to use euros instead of dollars for its external transactions. »

[Cosmos 1999]

And here is a new update (03/15/2006) from LEAP/E2020 team:
USA-Dollar-Iran / Confirmation of Global Systemic Crisis end of March 2006 (http://www.europe2020.org/en/section_global/150306.htm)
INTRO:
« Nine indicators developed in this month’s GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin, coordinated by Franck Biancheri, out of which 5 are presented in this public communication, enable LEAP/E2020 to confirm the beginning of a global systemic crisis by the end of March 2006. The recent international trends that particularly affect the international financial system, and the preoccupying trends in the US, namely as concerns the reliability of statistics on the US economy, have brought our research team to conclude that this global systemic crisis is already unfolding. »

[Cosmos 1999]

Following the disparition of the publication of M3 data set March 20, 2006...

The White House would be on the point of printing 2 trillion dollars secretly (April 6, 2006) :
News Flash: Dollar Tanking? The Bush Administration may be destroying the US dollar (http://www.oss.net/extra/news/?module_instance=1&id=2719&article_sent=true)

If true, the Bush administration will have a short period of time to "act" (whatever this means) before the massive cash flood to the whole market is publicly discovered.