Watching Iraqi government is fascinating

[spindler]

I'm really, really excited about the possibility of democracy and peace actually forming in Iraq. So I'd like to have a rational, non-partisan discussion of the future.

Now, I personally think George Bush was eager for war and I feel bad about all the deaths. Yet no matter how horrible the operation, you can still talk rationally about the chances of survival afterwards.

So, it seems like the basic situation is that the Iraqi parliament has two ways to go:

(a) compromise, and balance the Shiites, Kurds, and Sunnis in the military forces
(b) refuse to compromise, and watch more death and disaster take place.

Now some on the liberal side who are the overreacting types will say "This is foolishness. You can't force democracy on people!!!" But the Iraqi politicians DO NOT have to be experts in democracy. All they need is common sense, because common sense would lead to compromise, which leads to balance of power, and voila, you have democracy. They don't have to do anything out of love of democracy, but democracy is just the natural course to take if you favor stability over more killings.

This Nouri al-Maliki seems like an absolutely great guy. Whereas the ass clown before him couldn't compromise at all, he has quickly come in and set up a government. Also, though he is a Shiite, he has offered to choose a Sunni as a leader of the security forces.

So the big question for now is if the rest of the Iraqi parliament can stop being ass clowns and actually compromise. Can they put equal numbers of the different religions in the security forces and then weed out the bad guys?

If the Iraqis can form a united security force, then the U.S, can mostly leave. If the U.S. mostly leaves, the terrorists will have no real excuse for killing people other than being murderers. If the security forces are strong, the terrorists may have no real reason to go on attacking. If it is obvious that they are not going to get control of the government back, and if they are taking some losses themselves, there won't be much point in fighting on.

So the question is can the citizens of Iraq be able to get along and not kill each other, given a background of solid security forces and real punishment and jail time attacks on other citizens? Given the right circumstances, can these religious loonies get along and move into the modern world?

[sammi jo]

There won't be any chance of overall peace, an essential element in permitting a functional Iraqi democratic-style government to form, until that country is free of all occupation forces. But those occupation forces will not leave until there is overall peace. This is a closed circle.

When is the occupation ending, if ever? The Jordanian paper al-Arab al-Yawm wrote in 2003:

The sources revealed the names of these bases and the planned positions for permanent deployment. They are:

. Al-Habbaniyah Airbase [already an RAF airbase for much of the last century] near the city of al-Fallujah, 65km west of Baghdad;

. Ash-Sha'biyah Airbase in Basra, 600km south of Baghdad;

. 'Ali ibn Abi Taleb Airbase on the outskirts of the city of an-Nasiriyah, 400km south of Baghdad;

. al-Walid Airbase about 330km north west of Baghdad;

. al-Ghazlani Camp in the city of Mosul, 400km north of Baghdad;

. A permanent deployment of forces in the east of Iraq in what is known as the Hamrin mountain range that extends from Diyala Provice, 60km east of Baghdad, and borders on Iran and extends to the oil-rich city of Kirkuk, 260km north of Baghdad

The investment in these bases, and maybe others as of yet still on the drawingboard, runs into $billions, perhaps 10s of $billions. Also the US is building a new "embassy" in Baghdad; it's the size of the Vatican and has 5500 employees, at a budget if 1$billion. Is the US building all these mega-facilities, only to abandon them a few short years later? Answer is an obvious "no chance in hell". The occupation is entrenched and probably will last well into the forseeable future, meaning probably decades.

Democracy in Iraq is an academic exercise. While under occupation, it will remain violent, and that violence will kill any pretence at genuine representative, ie non-puppet, government.

Currently, "fiasco" is as good as Iraq can hope for.

[Gon]

Originally posted by spindler
So, it seems like the basic situation is that the Iraqi parliament has two ways to go:

(a) compromise, and balance the Shiites, Kurds, and Sunnis in the military forces
(b) refuse to compromise, and watch more death and disaster take place.I think that is only because the US will block other higher-freedom options like an independent Kurdistan in favor of having to maintain only one puppet government.

[e1618978]

Originally posted by Gon
I think that is only because the US will block other higher-freedom options like an independent Kurdistan in favor of having to maintain only one puppet government.

Actually, I think that an independant Kurdistan is the most likely option. The US will pull all its forced back to the huge military base they are building there, and the Sunnis and Shia will have to sort out the rest.

[Gene Clean]

What Iraqi Government?

[midwinter]

Isn't three states the inevitable outcome of this? 40 years of forced confederation clearly hasn't worked.

[vinea]

Originally posted by midwinter
Isn't three states the inevitable outcome of this? 40 years of forced confederation clearly hasn't worked.

Turkey would be really pissed about an independent Kurdistan. As would Iran but I don't think we mind that. On the other hand it could potentially spark yet another Kurdish uprising in Iran with a US aligned Kurdistan supporting it.

So I dunno that the region would be more stable with an independent Kurdistan.

On the other hand, Kurds might flock to Kurdistan and as long as it didn't try to recapture traditional Kurdish territory the other countries might be happier with smaller Kurdish minorities.

Vinea

[midwinter]

Oh sure, there'd be a crazy realignment in the region if Iraq splits into the three states it wants to be, but I don't know that that would be any worse than what we have now, which is a state that for its entire existence has required either massive military occupation by a foreign power or the brutal hand of a dictator to keep from ripping apart at the seams.

And I have to correct myself. 40 years. Yeesh. I apparently need to go back to remedial math to get that from 1932 - 2006 is greater than 40. ;) At any rate, it's for nearly 100 years now, if we consider the entire British period of occupation after WWI.

And just think, everything would have been fine if weren't for those pesky Ottoman Empire fellows!

[Aurora]

Originally posted by Gene Clean
What Iraqi Government? I would agree, as long as everyone is running around with the Koran that country will allways be a mess. A couple of tennis players were killed there for get this...wearing shorts? this is the type of brainwashing that has polluted Iraq. What a waste of time,money and men. killing folks for wearing shorts. bbc carried this. How you going to have a democracy on top of that?

[Nightcrawler]

Originally posted by Aurora
I would agree, as long as everyone is running around with the Koran that country will allways be a mess. A couple of tennis players were killed there for get this...wearing shorts? this is the type of brainwashing that has polluted Iraq.

I would wish these iraqi insurgents to take a deep look into the Quran, before they commit such blatantly sinful atrocities.

I'm not even sure if wearing shorts is forbidden in the Quran, but even if, there is no punishment allowed for those who don't keep to that quranic clothing-order (if there is any one).

Quranic punishments are only allowed for public sexual intercourse between nonmarried partners, repeated stealing out of greed (and not out of hunger) and murder.

And only for murder, the punishment is death.

So considering that, these iraqis that killed the iraqis that wore shorts were clearly commiting one of the gravest sins, ie. murder and should be brought to justice if possible. If not, in the afterlife they will burn in hell for it.

Nightcrawler