California Primary and Midterm Elections

[trumptman]

Obviously as a Californian, I must act as most people in California do and must force you to realize it is really all about us.

So we look at the results for the California primary and one of them included a special election to replace Randy "Duke" Cunningham and was considered a litmus test about the likelihood of Democratic house prospects for the fall.

Another one bites the dust (http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewPolitics.asp?Page=/Politics/archive/200606/POL20060607b.html)

Additionally we have that most Democratic of ideals going down to defeat. It helps the kids, it enables the women, it taxes the rich and it was shown the door.

Ladies, gentlemen and then those of you who don't agree with me on this board, I present.. universal preschool. (http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2006/06/07/MNGI7J9UH11.DTL)

The implications for the midterm elections? I'll simply leave you with this very persuasive piece called "What about the Senate?" (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2006/04/what_about_the_senate.html) I'll dedicate it to Jimmac who always likes to cite previous trends when looking at future results.

It claims the following:

The consensus on the Senate is actually a major problem for the consensus on the House. Historically speaking, the House only switches when the Senate switches. In other words, the improbability of a Democratic capture of the Senate is a sign that a capture of the House is improbable.

Trends are only true until they are not. However this one has a 100% success rate for 92 years. Perhaps it will be wrong this time though.

Nick

[Northgate]

Get to the point Nick. Democrats are losers. Neener.

[Northgate]

Republicans had to pump ELEVEN MILLION DOLLARS into what should have been a safe seat.

The NRCC by themselves spent about $5 million, which erased about 20% of their $25 million. When you take into consideration the numbers of seriously challenged Republican House members, they won't have anywhere near this kind of money to play defense in November. And Elizabeth Dole has been a disaster for the NRCC.

Does this mean big wins for Democrats? Probably not. Republicans are way too good at demogaguery and their noise machine is still alive and healthy.

[Northgate]

Update: The GOP was forced to spend $11 and the Dems $4.7 million. That only got the Republicans a 4-point victory in one of the most Republican districts in the country. Busby lost that seat by 22 points in 2004.

[Chris Cuilla]

Nick, shouldn't the title of your thread be about how the people have sold out the people?

;)

[Northgate]

Big shocker. A heavily republican district elected...wait for it...a republican.

News at 11:00.

[sammi jo]

I am happy that Debra Bowen won her bid in the CA democratic primary as candidate for Secretary of State, just on her fiercely anti-nonrecountable voting machine technology stand.

[Gilsch]

Originally posted by Northgate
Big shocker. A heavily republican district elected...wait for it...a republican.

News at 11:00. No kidding. :lol:

[southside grabowski]

Democrats need to make some serious changes in their thinking if they expect the people to elect them. Most are unhappy with where the Republicans have taken the country, but see worse in the Democrats.

[jimmac]

Originally posted by southside grabowski
Democrats need to make some serious changes in their thinking if they expect the people to elect them. Most are unhappy with where the Republicans have taken the country, but see worse in the Democrats.


Uh yeah! That's why the republicans are running scared because of the polls.

I guess you'll only believe it when you see the smokestacks going beneath the waves.;)

[Northgate]

I really wish that would be the result.

But unfortunately we live in a world of Rovian politics where anything you say can be spun and twisted against you and if you don't provide them the ammo they'll just make shit up.

Republicans will pull out of this nose dive. It'll be an astonishing accomplishment and they'll spend A LOT of money to do it.

[Gilsch]

Originally posted by Northgate
Republicans will pull out of this nose dive. It'll be an astonishing accomplishment and they'll spend A LOT of money to do it. Astonishing accomplishment how? It's been lies and scandal after scandal for years and it has become their M.O so I won't be surprised one bit if nothing changes. Nothing surprises me anymore.

:(

[Northgate]

True. The minute people start poking around they'll scream, "Look! Over there! Brown people!"

[jimmac]

Originally posted by Northgate
I really wish that would be the result.

But unfortunately we live in a world of Rovian politics where anything you say can be spun and twisted against you and if you don't provide them the ammo they'll just make shit up.

Republicans will pull out of this nose dive. It'll be an astonishing accomplishment and they'll spend A LOT of money to do it.

We'll see. They have more than just an inept president working against them this time. The parties have run in cycles for as long as I've been alive. They've made some bad mistakes at the wrong part of the cycle. Sure they'll pull out of this someday. Just not in time for the next two elections. They'll have to wait awhile until the public has forgot. With what's been going on that will be quite a few years now.

[Northgate]

Originally posted by jimmac
We'll see. They have more than just an inept president working against them this time. The parties have run in cycles for as long as I've been alive. They've made some bad mistakes at the wrong part of the cycle. Sure they'll pull out of this someday. Just not in time for the next two elections. They'll have to wait awhile until the public has forgot. With what's been going on that will be quite a few years now.

Yes, but if Democrats can't pick up a seat in Duke Cunningham's old district (the poster boy of the culture of corruption) then I truly have no hope for November.

While I agree it was always going to be difficult to pick it up it wasn't impossible. Considering she was outspent by a factor of three I am encouraged by how well she did. But a loss is a loss.

I think Dems will make some gains in less Red districts, I doubt it will be enough to achieve majority status in either house.

American's truly don't care about corruption in government. They truly don't want to hold anyone accountable for the massive failures that led up to 9/11. They certainly aren't interested in why Iraq is FUBAR.

American's only care about ugly brown people whether they be middle-eastern or hispanic. They truly only care about gays not obtaining equality. They want their A.M. hate radio.

That's the truth.

[tonton]

Southern Orange County, Palm Springs and parts of San Diego are very dependably "red states". This means nothing to indicate a defeat of Democrats is in the works.

[pfflam]

the Repubs don't need the people, they'll just take what ever important elections they want . . . they've done it before and they'll do it again.