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segovius
06-17-2006, 05:52 AM
This is important and fascinating. The US forces claim to have found a letter in the rubble of Zarqawi's bombed house. Text Here (http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/World/Iraq/2006/06/15/1634921-ap.html).

Passing quickly over the 911-passport-esque issue of how so many articles could survive precision strikes by 500lb bombs there are only two possibilities: it is real or it is a fake. I don't know which and it is not my point to express an opinion but let's proceed logically:

1) If it is a fake then it is more proof of US continued lying (or black-ops if you prefer) in relation to Zarqawi. That is to say, whether you agree with that analysis or not, the US faked it and are presenting it as real.

2) If it is real and Zarqawi wrote it then it is a wake-up call for all wing-nuts or supporters of the US admin's current foreign policies as it clearly spells out disturbing facts.

And this is what is interesting: out of the only two possibilities it clearly shows a very disturbing pattern relating to current Bush admin policies. I will demonstrate with examples that are self-evident and explain for those who might find it uncomfortable and not clearly understand the import. Remember - these words were written EITHER by Zarqawi or someone in US employ, they are the only two possibilities:

1) Firstly, 'Zarqawi' draws a distinction between his group and the resistance. This is clearly admitting that they are two separate things - but worse, he clearly states that his group opposes the resistance and supports the US troops (for reason he later explains).

This to my mind would tend to suggest the letter is genuine. It is not the sort of thing (one would hope) that even a US spook would risk putting out there. And of course the situation the ground with Iraqis being murdered daily supports this.

'Zarqawi' lists the measures his group take against the resistance:

However, here in Iraq, time is now beginning to be of service to the American forces and harmful to the resistance for the following reasons:

1. By allowing the American forces to form the forces of the National Guard, to reinforce them and enable them to undertake military operations against the resistance.

2. By undertaking massive arrest operations, invading regions that have an impact on the resistance, and hence causing the resistance to lose many of its elements.

3. By undertaking a media campaign against the resistance resulting in weakening its influence inside the country and presenting its work as harmful to the population rather than being beneficial to the population.

4. By tightening the resistance's financial outlets, restricting its moral options and by confiscating its ammunition and weapons.

5. By creating a big division among the ranks of the resistance and jeopardizing its attack operations, it has weakened its influence and internal support of its elements, thus resulting in a decline of the resistance's assaults.

There are more in the linked article - point 3 is particularly interesting and pertinent to my theme as it not only shows that the group have a policy of media propaganda but they can successfully implement it. This is key and so far such a source has not been identified. What is the nature of this propaganda and its media?

But now to my my main point to which the above is the background - remember, Zarqawi's group (which still is operational) either has a sophisticated propaganda network or the US is making all this up and being highly irresponsible in doing so.

Zarqawi goes on to identify the resistance as predominantly Shi'i and, not surprisingly, to frame the conflict as being against them. This is fairly well-known anyway but this is the shocker:

Consequently, to embroil America in another war against another enemy is the answer that we find to be the most appropriate, and to have a war through a delegate has the following benefits:

1. To occupy the Americans by another front will allow the resistance freedom of movement and alleviate the pressure imposed on it............

7. A war between the Americans and Iran. We have noticed that the best of these wars to be ignited is the one between the Americans and Iran.......

The question remains, how to draw the Americans into fighting a war against Iran?

Hence, it is necessary first to exaggerate the Iranian danger and to convince America and the west in general, of the real danger coming from Iran, and this would be done by the following:

1. By disseminating threatening messages against American interests and the American people and attribute them to a Shi'a Iranian side.

2. By executing operations of kidnapping hostages and implicating the Shi'a Iranian side.

3. By advertising that Iran has chemical and nuclear weapons and is threatening the west with these weapons.

4. By executing exploding operations in the west and accusing Iran by planting Iranian Shi'a fingerprints and evidence.

5. By declaring the existence of a relationship between Iran and terrorist groups (as termed by the Americans).

6. By disseminating bogus messages about confessions showing that Iran is in possession of weapons of mass destruction or that there are attempts by the Iranian intelligence to undertake terrorist operations in America and the west and against western interests.

And this is the crux - here you have a list of what 'Zarqawi' says need to be done to draw the US into a war with Iran. Such things can be seen to correspond to reality on the ground.

Now this letter is either true or it is a fake. Let's refine the options:

1) If it is true then it inevitably follows that:


The propaganda you are hearing and following about Iran's nukes is very likely emanating from Zarqawi.
The path Bush is following by his 'stand' (that the wingers support) is essentially a trap.
The US admin is blindly and unknowingly following a script written by the terrorists and therefore doomed to lost the WOT.


Before considering the ramifications of the 'false' view, let's just look at point 3 there: this militates against the 'real' hypothesis and virtually proves it is a product of US intel.

Think: how could the US continue on it's path of confrontation with Iran having found such a letter? If the letter is genuine and states exactly this and the US continue......well, it is right up there with ignoring the warnings pre-911.

2) If it is false then it inevitably follows that:

The US is behaving irresponsibly - to say the least - in suggesting that the policy they are pursuing re Iran could in fact be the product of a terrorist plan and not based on actuality. think about that for a moment -if Iran really are planning nukes and the US is committed to a diplomatic solution then what purpose can creating this fiction possibly serve/ It can only benefit terrorists surely?

Seriously, I would like to hear from supporters of Bush and those who believe Iran to be a real threat - if this document is real then does it change your view? Or are you going to continue to sleepwalk into a 'terrorist' trap? Or perhaps you have some alternate justification?

Let's hear em - send em in on the usual number....

segovius
06-18-2006, 07:24 AM
Hehehe - no one interested.

Guess I forgot the inflammatory title and some quasi-libellous and insulting reference to the beliefs of small Christian sects....damn....

:devil:

rufusswan
06-18-2006, 12:23 PM
Well, it certainly had a "Wiley Coyote" feel to it. You forgot to hide the box labelled 'ACME IED's" so folks had some warning.

Just so's ya don't go home empty handed, how bout this. Instead of me tossin some rocks and chuckin some spears at you, and you then responding with more and larger rocks & more and longer spears, how bout I just say where you lost me?

The letter. Let's assume it was truly found in Z's house after the bombing. It is real in the sense that it exists. I'm looking at it now. No title, no date, every word spelled correctly, perfectly written. Can't tell if it was a piece of paper or a digital file.

So, we can't assume that Z did or did not write this. If he didn't, then someone faked it for unknown motives. Hell, as propaganda, anybody could benefit. The US, Irag govt, Iranian govt, Syria. Shaky start for the logic tree you try to build.

Then the quote:
"but worse, he clearly states that his group opposes the resistance and supports the US troops (for reason he later explains)"

I truly could not find or support the quote above in the CNN letter. Discretion being the better part of valor, I decided not to be the one to do the 1st post. 4th or 5th maybe, but not the first.

Paz

segovius
06-18-2006, 12:57 PM
Originally posted by rufusswan
I truly could not find or support the quote above in the CNN letter.

Beginning of third paragraph:

However, here in Iraq, time is now beginning to be of service to the American forces and harmful to the resistance for the following reasons:

rufusswan
06-18-2006, 10:46 PM
Sego,

Your quote:

"but worse, he clearly states that his group opposes the resistance and supports the US troops (for reason he later explains)."

Actual text from letter where you, yourself indicated that I could find it:

"As an overall picture, time has been an element in affecting negatively the forces of the occupying countries, due to the losses they sustain economically in human lives, which are increasing with time. However, here in Iraq, time is now beginning to be of service to the American forces and harmful to the resistance for the following reasons:"

Yes, over time US is getting more bad press as the war drags on, but the quote above in no way says that his group opposes the resistance movement in Irag, and it does not say that he supports the US troops.

What might be a little confusing is the use of the word "However" to tie together the two halves of the paragraph. In the 1st half, he is stating that as the war goes on it does have negative impacts to aspects of the US effort, but if we tie that to the 2nd half with REGARDLESS, then he goes on to say in effect "the war dragging on is harmful to the resistance, ALSO." and begins to list those reasons.

Paz

SDW2001
06-19-2006, 08:56 AM
rufusswan:

Yes, over time US is getting more bad press as the war drags on, but the quote above in no way says that his group opposes the resistance movement in Irag, and it does not say that he supports the US troops.


I was going to say "exactly," but then I noticed "more bad press." What the letter means is that the US is taking advantage of the media to harm the resistance, and that time is not on the side of resistance. Seg is totally off base with his interpretation though...you're right about that. It does not say Zarqawi opposes the resistance and favors US Troops.

Seg:

Think: how could the US continue on it's path of confrontation with Iran having found such a letter? If the letter is genuine and states exactly this and the US continue......well, it is right up there with ignoring the warnings pre-911.

You've really shifted the burden to the US entirely with this statement. You completely ignore that Iran, not the US is primarily responsible for heeding it's own international obligations. Iran is provoking this situation, not the US. If anything, there has been a huge and concilliatory shift in US policy in recent weeks.

Secondly, you're assuming that Mr. Z. is correct in his apparent stance that a US-Iran war would be beneficial to his cause. Just because that was Al-Queda's goal doesn't mean they were right. Also, it assumes a military conflict would mirror tactics used in Iraq. It might look very different, with a much heavier reliance on airpower and without as much focus on regime change. This would change the post-invasion dynamic considerably.

But really, you're whole post is one gigantic false dilemma. We're damned if the letter's real and damned if it's not.

segovius
06-19-2006, 02:17 PM
Originally posted by SDW2001
rufusswan:



I was going to say "exactly," but then I noticed "more bad press." What the letter means is that the US is taking advantage of the media to harm the resistance, and that time is not on the side of resistance. Seg is totally off base with his interpretation though...you're right about that. It does not say Zarqawi opposes the resistance and favors US Troops.

Seg:



You've really shifted the burden to the US entirely with this statement. You completely ignore that Iran, not the US is primarily responsible for heeding it's own international obligations. Iran is provoking this situation, not the US. If anything, there has been a huge and concilliatory shift in US policy in recent weeks.

Secondly, you're assuming that Mr. Z. is correct in his apparent stance that a US-Iran war would be beneficial to his cause. Just because that was Al-Queda's goal doesn't mean they were right. Also, it assumes a military conflict would mirror tactics used in Iraq. It might look very different, with a much heavier reliance on airpower and without as much focus on regime change. This would change the post-invasion dynamic considerably.

But really, you're whole post is one gigantic false dilemma. We're damned if the letter's real and damned if it's not.

Actually - you are right. After further thought on this matter I have to admit that on this occasion I have got it totally wrong and my implications are in error.

That is to say, the Zarqawi letter did NOT say the things I implied it did and I misunderstood the article BUT...... I still think the US is lying about Iran and driving to war regardless and I do still believe a plan of disinformation possibly using 'terrorists' to disseminate it is in fact under way.

It's merely that this is not the smoking gun.

e1618978
06-19-2006, 03:06 PM
I think that the letter is real - there is no way the US would make it look like they are being tricked into attacking Iran, particularly when we might actually have to go to war. The whole letter reminds me of the board game "diplomacy" - does that much backstabing and trickery actually take place between nations?

If it is real, it is pretty good news. It means that even before this big roundup of resistance figures (due to the treachery of whoever turned in Zarquwi) things were going very badly for the resistance movement in Iraq.

Maybe Cheney was right when he said that Iraq has turned a corner. Stability in Iraq before the November elections?...

segovius
06-19-2006, 03:20 PM
Originally posted by e1618978
Stability in Iraq before the November elections?...

Even if that were the case - that stability was near - I'm afraid that you have an administration that can f**-up any good situation and will.

They will merely take it as a vindication of policy and storm into Iran sooner - in fact the insurgency's success is the main reason they haven't yet.

Anyone who thinks that will increase stability in the region is wrong.

PBG4 Dude
06-20-2006, 07:37 AM
Originally posted by e1618978
I think that the letter is real - there is no way the US would make it look like they are being tricked into attacking Iran, particularly when we might actually have to go to war. The whole letter reminds me of the board game "diplomacy" - does that much backstabing and trickery actually take place between nations?

What if the letter is fake and planted by the US as an excuse for an Iran 'rethink'? We've already seen the fire & brimstone rhetoric from Condie and Bush subside into "let's talk".

Maybe this letter was planted to get all the people here in the US who would want us to turn Iran into glass to pause for a second. Actually as a piece of propaganda to turn us back from war with Iran on someone in the US' gov't terms, this letter could do the trick, don't you think?

We're already occupying two middle east countries with troops in Pakistan as well. Can we afford to start up with Iran too? I don't think we have the manpower or the cash to attack yet another country.

segovius
06-20-2006, 07:40 AM
Originally posted by PBG4 Dude
What if the letter is fake and planted by the US as an excuse for an Iran 'rethink'? We've already seen the fire & brimstone rhetoric from Condie and Bush subside into "let's talk".

Maybe this letter was planted to get all the people here in the US who would want us to turn Iran into glass to pause for a second. Actually as a piece of propaganda to turn us back from war with Iran on someone in the US' gov't terms, this letter could do the trick, don't you think?

We're already occupying two middle east countries with troops in Pakistan as well. Can we afford to start up with Iran too? I don't think we have the manpower or the cash to attack yet another country.

Could well be - especially as the North Korea thing is now blowing up.

Not only do they have to deal with it but it makes them look stupid to be focussing so much on a country that may or may not want nukes but doesn't have one and yet ignoring a country that does who are about to launch a missile that could hit Alaska.

e1618978
06-20-2006, 07:48 AM
Originally posted by PBG4 Dude
What if the letter is fake and planted by the US as an excuse for an Iran 'rethink'? We've already seen the fire & brimstone rhetoric from Condie and Bush subside into "let's talk".

Maybe this letter was planted to get all the people here in the US who would want us to turn Iran into glass to pause for a second. Actually as a piece of propaganda to turn us back from war with Iran on someone in the US' gov't terms, this letter could do the trick, don't you think?

We're already occupying two middle east countries with troops in Pakistan as well. Can we afford to start up with Iran too? I don't think we have the manpower or the cash to attack yet another country.

It depends what you mean by "afford". We are a lot richer now than we were in 1945, and we "afforded" 2 trillion dollars (inflation adjusted) on WWII. We have only spent 300 billion on Iraq - of course, the current national debt is basically the cost of WWII + interest, so I guess that we could not afford it then either...

It does not matter if we want to invade Iran or not, there is no way that congress is going to vote for an Iranian invasion.

SDW2001
06-20-2006, 09:04 AM
Originally posted by segovius
Actually - you are right. After further thought on this matter I have to admit that on this occasion I have got it totally wrong and my implications are in error.

That is to say, the Zarqawi letter did NOT say the things I implied it did and I misunderstood the article BUT...... I still think the US is lying about Iran and driving to war regardless and I do still believe a plan of disinformation possibly using 'terrorists' to disseminate it is in fact under way.

It's merely that this is not the smoking gun.

Fair enough Seg. That has to be one of the most honest posts I've read here at AI. You don't need to stress "on this occasion" either. I will not do what others do...take on example of being wrong on something and pervert it into you being wrong on future issues. You'll still be wrong of course, but not for this reason ;)

SDW2001
06-20-2006, 09:07 AM
Originally posted by PBG4 Dude
What if the letter is fake and planted by the US as an excuse for an Iran 'rethink'? We've already seen the fire & brimstone rhetoric from Condie and Bush subside into "let's talk".

Maybe this letter was planted to get all the people here in the US who would want us to turn Iran into glass to pause for a second. Actually as a piece of propaganda to turn us back from war with Iran on someone in the US' gov't terms, this letter could do the trick, don't you think?

We're already occupying two middle east countries with troops in Pakistan as well. Can we afford to start up with Iran too? I don't think we have the manpower or the cash to attack yet another country.

I thik it's real, but that's an interesting thought. That said, if the issue is on eof military capability, I have no doubt we have the resources to attack Iran. A ground invasion would strain us bigtime, but a massive air campaign? We would have no problem with that.

SDW2001
06-20-2006, 09:14 AM
Originally posted by segovius
Could well be - especially as the North Korea thing is now blowing up.

Not only do they have to deal with it but it makes them look stupid to be focussing so much on a country that may or may not want nukes but doesn't have one and yet ignoring a country that does who are about to launch a missile that could hit Alaska.

That's purely rhetorical and somewhat intellectually dishonest. When you say "ignoring" and "focusing," one can only conclude you are actually referring to military action. We've been focusing on NK for some time now. The Iraq war doesn't change that. That is, unless you advocated or are advocating attacking NK pre-emptively. Is that what you propose? Would you have supported that course of action in lieu of attacking Iraq? I think not.

jamac
06-20-2006, 09:42 AM
What is disturbing here is that Mr. Z was more eloquent than GW and the terrorists have a better grasp on whats going than the US.

segovius
06-20-2006, 11:00 AM
Originally posted by SDW2001
That's purely rhetorical and somewhat intellectually dishonest. When you say "ignoring" and "focusing," one can only conclude you are actually referring to military action. We've been focusing on NK for some time now. The Iraq war doesn't change that. That is, unless you advocated or are advocating attacking NK pre-emptively. Is that what you propose? Would you have supported that course of action in lieu of attacking Iraq? I think not.

I meant focussing by the media. I can't say what it is like in the US but here in Europe all we have heard is Iran, Iran, Iran....

Yesterday was the first time I read an article on the BBC about NK for about a year.....

I don't wish to see NK or Iran (or anyone else) attacked necessarily - just saying NK is more of a threat than Iran right now and that hasn't been allowed to filter through to public consciousness.

hardeeharhar
06-20-2006, 11:28 AM
Originally posted by jamac
What is disturbing here is that Mr. Z was more eloquent than GW and the terrorists have a better grasp on whats going than the US.

It became apparent to me during my trip to morocco that the US has no fucking clue as to how to stop terrorism or even to secure arab allies. We come across as some sort of morally degenerate nation filled with sluts and "niggas" with guns -- with more money than we know what to do with.

We aren't even effectively tackling the implicit notion that the west is a bad place, but are trying to convince arabs that the act of terrorism is a misinterpretation of piece of their religious minutia.

Fucking putting the cart before the horse.

jamac
06-20-2006, 02:08 PM
Originally posted by hardeeharhar
It became apparent to me during my trip to morocco that the US has no fucking clue as to how to stop terrorism or even to secure arab allies. We come across as some sort of morally degenerate nation filled with sluts and "niggas" with guns -- with more money than we know what to do with.

We aren't even effectively tackling the implicit notion that the west is a bad place, but are trying to convince arabs that the act of terrorism is a misinterpretation of piece of their religious minutia.

Fucking putting the cart before the horse.

I made many friends in Marocco, mostly musicians. They were very welcoming and warm. I have had great experiences with Persian families.
Sometimes I wonder if the whole thing is some weird movie script. Zarqawi is an US invention. The guy would not have existed without the invasion. We are making heroes out of the very people we are supposed to fear.

hardeeharhar
06-20-2006, 11:24 PM
Originally posted by jamac
I made many friends in Marocco, mostly musicians. They were very welcoming and warm.

Yeah... So I have heard. From my experience the country is no different in terms of warmth of people than anywhere else. In fact, Morocco is the only place where I have received tirades of english curses four times in one day when I said no to buying hashish. My experience with english speaking teenagers in morocco was far more telling still -- they seriously found it weird that I don't have bitches on the side. What american culture leaks into the arab world is the least cultured we produce -- the britney spears' of america...

Nightcrawler
06-21-2006, 08:16 AM
The full text of the Zarqawi-letter is even more interesting:

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iraq/2004/02/040212-al-zarqawi.htm

If the letter is real and from Zarqawi, then it is a proposal to Alqaeda-headquarters to change its strategy of confronting the US to Zarqawi's idea to confront instead the shias since Zarqawi accuses the shia of being an apostasy and the worst enemy of Islam, supposedly worse than crusaders and zionists.

He states that the shia, including Iran, and the supposed US-crusaders and Israel-zionists have allied each other in order to destroy Islam, and that the shortterm outcome of this would be the division of Iraq and a few other middle-eastern states between Israel and Iran. Israel would then be allowed to become the Greater Israel that it supposedly wishes to become, reaching from the sea to the euphrates, while Iran would get the remaining chunks to again become Persia.. the sunnis would then be either banned, killed or forced to convert.

Not all of this is explicitly stated, but it's readable between the lines.. in Zarqawi's supposed letter.

Nightcrawler

SDW2001
06-21-2006, 09:37 AM
Originally posted by segovius
I meant focussing by the media. I can't say what it is like in the US but here in Europe all we have heard is Iran, Iran, Iran....

Yesterday was the first time I read an article on the BBC about NK for about a year.....

I don't wish to see NK or Iran (or anyone else) attacked necessarily - just saying NK is more of a threat than Iran right now and that hasn't been allowed to filter through to public consciousness.

Well, blame the media then.

segovius
06-21-2006, 09:42 AM
Originally posted by SDW2001
Well, blame the media then.

That's what I'm doing: blaming them for being butt-sucking toadies of a quasi-fascist movement being installed by totalitarian regimes in the making led by Bush and Blair....

SDW2001
06-21-2006, 12:40 PM
Originally posted by segovius
That's what I'm doing: blaming them for being butt-sucking toadies of a quasi-fascist movement being installed by totalitarian regimes in the making led by Bush and Blair....

Oh come on. That's a little over the top, even for you.