N. Korea. missiles, the US and Japan

[Bergermeister]

The North Koreans are preparing to test-fire a missile that could possibly reach the US mainland (or at least Alaska) and thus is raising a few eyebrows. The US and Japan have strengthened their ties to oppose this threat.

Should the US strike first to disable the missile?

Should Japan (using US-made defence systems) shoot down the missile (or should the US?).

What does NK hope to gain by all of this?

[segovius]

It's ok - relax. Nobody needs to do anything. There are no Muslims in NK and the missile hasn't the range to reach Israel.

[Bergermeister]

:lol:

When do you think a memo showing Al Quaida and Kim John Ill are poker buddies will emerge?

[hardeeharhar]

Tomorrow.

[Placebo]

http://img227.imageshack.us/img227/1813/kimjongil2yc.jpg
(obligatory two-minute photoshop)

[jimmac]

Originally posted by Placebo
http://img227.imageshack.us/img227/1813/kimjongil2yc.jpg
(obligatory two-minute photoshop)



Yee Haw!

Yeeeeeeee Haw!

Wha hoo!

Yee....

:lol:

[audiopollution]

Hmm. North Korea are now stating that, "the army and people of the DPRK are now in full preparedness to answer a pre-emptive attack with a relentless annihilating strike and a nuclear war with a mighty nuclear deterrent."

http://edition.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapcf/07/03/north.korea.ap/index.html

That photoshop-job doesn't seem so improbable.

[Placebo]

Wow, that's going to end up being a touchy situation.

[Bergermeister]

3 missiles launched early this morning (our time here in Japan) according to CNN. Here we go!



Add to jimmac's post: SPLAT! (or in reality: splash!)

[occam whisker]

Originally posted by Bergermeister
3 missiles launched early this morning (our time here in Japan) according to CNN. Here we go!



Add to jimmac\'s post: SPLAT! (or in reality: splash!)


The missiles I heard failed in the first 35 or 40 seconds. Must be humiliating for Kim Jong-Il. Wonder if he might try something just to save face.

Of course, the Iranian buyers of NOKOR technology might also be concerned. Reminds me of the IDF over Lebanon against the Syrians. Nothing is funnier than when the enemy finally realizes they bought BILLIONS worth of junk. LOL

[backtomac]

All of a sudden, 'star wars' missle defense doesn't seem like a waste of money.

[hardeeharhar]

Originally posted by backtomac
All of a sudden, 'star wars' missle defense doesn't seem like a waste of money.

That would be true IF you had any reason to expect them to work, which no one does.

[occam whisker]

Originally posted by hardeeharhar
That would be true IF you had any reason to expect them to work, which no one does.

Oh, I have my suspisions with this one. A 35 to 40 sec failure, sounds like the missiles were in their boost-phase. That\'s about right for a missile defense system to do its magic.

[groverat]

KJI wants some handouts.

[hardeeharhar]

Originally posted by occam whisker
Oh, I have my suspisions with this one. A 35 to 40 sec failure, sounds like the missiles were in their boost-phase. That\'s about right for a missile defense system to do its magic.

There was ONE intercontinental missile fired and its the first time NK has attempted to fire such a missile.

I think it is far more likely that they just failed.

[occam whisker]

Originally posted by hardeeharhar
There was ONE intercontinental missile fired and its the first time NK has attempted to fire such a missile.

I think it is far more likely that they just failed.


From the UK Telegraph:

\"North Korea provoked an international crisis last night by launching six missiles. Two of them were thought to be long-range ballistic rockets capable of reaching American soil, US officials said.

The secretive Stalinist state fired four Scud-type missiles over several hours. The first landed in the sea 370 miles from mainland Japan, Japanese media said. The second was said to have landed much nearer Russian territory.

North Korea then fired two intercontinental Taepodong 2 missiles which Washington fears could, when perfected, be used to carry a nuclear warhead into US territory.\"

[hardeeharhar]

Ok... I heard differently.

Edit: CNN says its one.

[Bergermeister]

The news reports here in Japan are saying it was 5 missiles, four landing in the same large are and the fifth landing a bit closer to Japan. CNN says six. Guess we'll find out later today.

How many times did thhe US fail when launching rockets and missiles? They are new at this and are going through the same trial and error that other missile-possessing nations have gone through.

Could this whole thing be a response to the US-Japan test of knocking down a ballistic missile not so many weeks ago?

(and possibly a NK way of saying, "We need more food"?)

[jimmac]

Originally posted by occam whisker
Oh, I have my suspisions with this one. A 35 to 40 sec failure, sounds like the missiles were in their boost-phase. That\'s about right for a missile defense system to do its magic.


:lol: :lol: :lol: :no:

[jimmac]

I'm with the security council. Breast beating by our president will do nothing but make the situation worse.

We need to work with China primarily to put leverage on N. Korea to stop. We need to stop trying to be the worlds's policeman. It just pisses the rest of the world off. And we've done that quite enough.

[jimmac]

Originally posted by occam whisker
From the UK Telegraph:

\"North Korea provoked an international crisis last night by launching six missiles. Two of them were thought to be long-range ballistic rockets capable of reaching American soil, US officials said.

The secretive Stalinist state fired four Scud-type missiles over several hours. The first landed in the sea 370 miles from mainland Japan, Japanese media said. The second was said to have landed much nearer Russian territory.

North Korea then fired two intercontinental Taepodong 2 missiles which Washington fears could, when perfected, be used to carry a nuclear warhead into US territory.\"

I heard one also. And it was a failure.

[SDW2001]

Originally posted by jimmac
I'm with the security council. Breast beating by our president will do nothing but make the situation worse.

We need to work with China primarily to put leverage on N. Korea to stop. We need to stop trying to be the worlds's policeman. It just pisses the rest of the world off. And we've done that quite enough.

Breast beating? Bush has not said a word today. Even when he does, it hardly qualifies as breast beating. We've said we have no plans to attack NK. We've said we want to use Chinese leverage. In other words, we're already doing exactly what you want.

[jimmac]

Originally posted by SDW2001
Breast beating? Bush has not said a word today. Even when he does, it hardly qualifies as breast beating. We've said we have no plans to attack NK. We've said we want to use Chinese leverage. In other words, we're already doing exactly what you want.

I'd like to believe that on this most sensitive issue. However that hasn't been this administration's pattern in the past.

[SDW2001]

Originally posted by jimmac
I'd like to believe that on this most sensitive issue. However that hasn't been this administration's pattern in the past.

For the most part, it has. There was the Axis of Evil speech, I'll give you that. That said, NK had just announced it's intentions to pull out of the Clinton admin's agreement...and that actually, it had been developing weapons all along. In my opinion you really can't blame the Bush admin for taking an initial hardline with them after that.

It's my feeling that agreements really don't mean a thing with NK though. He'll just violate them again. Let's talk about [i]that[/]track record.

[jimmac]

Originally posted by SDW2001
For the most part, it has. There was the Axis of Evil speech, I'll give you that. That said, NK had just announced it's intentions to pull out of the Clinton admin's agreement...and that actually, it had been developing weapons all along. In my opinion you really can't blame the Bush admin for taking an initial hardline with them after that.

It's my feeling that agreements really don't mean a thing with NK though. He'll just violate them again. Let's talk about [i]that[/]track record.

Korea wants the same deal we're offering Iran.

As to how this plays out. We'll see.

[SDW2001]

Originally posted by jimmac
Korea wants the same deal we're offering Iran.

As to how this plays out. We'll see.

Offering them anything is pointless. Even Iran has a better track record than NK.

[jimmac]

Originally posted by SDW2001
Offering them anything is pointless. Even Iran has a better track record than NK.


What do you know? We're in agreement on something!

However the problem remains and I don't think we'd have the international support if we just resorted to military force on our own. Just a statement not that I've heard we'll do that.

[jimmac]

Originally posted by occam whisker
Oh, I have my suspisions with this one. A 35 to 40 sec failure, sounds like the missiles were in their boost-phase. That\'s about right for a missile defense system to do its magic.


Occy baby here's a little education on the current state of missle defense :

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1210029,00.html

[occam whisker]

Originally posted by jimmac
Occy baby here\\\'s a little education on the current state of missle defense :

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1210029,00.html

Sorry buddy, I don\\\'t smoke dat shit. You wanna inhale dat Saudi camel shit, be my guest.

[Gilsch]

The Russians already tested new missiles that would make Star Wars completely useless....if it worked that is.

[jimmac]

Originally posted by occam whisker
Sorry buddy, I don\\\'t smoke dat shit. You wanna inhale dat Saudi camel shit, be my guest.


In other words you deal in the reality of " What if it was this way instead of the way it is? "

I'd gathered as much from of your other posts.
;)

[occam whisker]

Originally posted by jimmac
In other words you deal in the reality of \" What if it was this way instead of the way it is? \"

I\'d gathered as much from of your other posts.
;)


Hey jimmac, we can\'t all be hippies.

If you\'re really interested in this stuff, there are lots of serious publications on the internet that concentrate on the subject of (missile) defense systems.

[jimmac]

Originally posted by occam whisker
Hey jimmac, we can\'t all be hippies.

If you\'re really interested in this stuff, there are lots of serious publications on the internet that concentrate on the subject of (missile) defense systems.


:lol:

And Time isn't a serious publication?


:lol:

Well I'll give you one for effort!

However we can't all be the secret, conservative, in the know, elite.

Geez!:lol:

[occam whisker]

.

[occam whisker]

Originally posted by jimmac
:lol:

And Time isn\'t a serious publication?


:lol:

Well I\'ll give you one for effort!

Geez!:lol:


:D

Only if you\'re stoned.

[jimmac]

Originally posted by occam whisker
:D

Only if you\'re stoned.


This Hippie discription would have been applicable back in the early 70's. I do retain some of the liberal attitudes as many still do.;)


It's funny though most of your attitudes seem to come from the 1950's.

[occam whisker]

Originally posted by jimmac
This Hippie discription would have been applicable back in the early 70\'s. I do retain some of the liberal attitudes as many still do.;)


It\'s funny though most of your attitudes seem to come from the 1950\'s.

It\'s that counter counter culture Different Think™. :)

[jimmac]

Originally posted by occam whisker
It\'s that counter counter culture Different Think™. :)

As opposed to the " let's just get back to basics of god and country stuff that failed the first time and led to where we are today thinking ".

Notice I didn't use baby Jesus. ;)

[vinea]

Originally posted by occam whisker
If you\'re really interested in this stuff, there are lots of serious publications on the internet that concentrate on the subject of (missile) defense systems.

Heh, no source any more credible than Time exists on the net regarding missile defense systems. Meaning that what got published in Time is the same kind of stuff you will see on MDA's site (www.mda.mil) or service branches like SMDC (www.smdc.army.mil).

You might see more technical discussion but no one credible will suggest a boost phase intercept is possible anytime soon even if in theory a SM-3 is a potential ascent/mid-course inteceptor.

A fielded BPI system is on the same level as UFO sightings at the moment. Science Fiction.

The mostly likely reason is a range officer or safety system saw the test missile was off course and destroyed the missile. Not even NK is crazy enough to just let a rogue missile crash into Japan.

Vinea

[Placebo]

I'm creating a new ideology called "don't be a fucking idiot".

[jimmac]

Originally posted by vinea
Heh, no source any more credible than Time exists on the net regarding missile defense systems. Meaning that what got published in Time is the same kind of stuff you will see on MDA's site (www.mda.mil) or service branches like SMDC (www.smdc.army.mil).

You might see more technical discussion but no one credible will suggest a boost phase intercept is possible anytime soon even if in theory a SM-3 is a potential ascent/mid-course inteceptor.

A fielded BPI system is on the same level as UFO sightings at the moment. Science Fiction.

The mostly likely reason is a range officer or safety system saw the test missile was off course and destroyed the missile. Not even NK is crazy enough to just let a rogue missile crash into Japan.

Vinea


-----------------------------------------------------------
" Heh, no source any more credible than Time exists on the net regarding missile defense systems. "

-----------------------------------------------------------

Time's a " Hippie " magazine. Didn't you know?:lol:

[occam whisker]

Originally posted by vinea
Heh, no source any more credible than Time exists on the net regarding missile defense systems. Meaning that what got published in Time is the same kind of stuff you will see on MDA\'s site (www.mda.mil) or service branches like SMDC (www.smdc.army.mil).

You might see more technical discussion but no one credible will suggest a boost phase intercept is possible anytime soon even if in theory a SM-3 is a potential ascent/mid-course inteceptor.

A fielded BPI system is on the same level as UFO sightings at the moment. Science Fiction.

The mostly likely reason is a range officer or safety system saw the test missile was off course and destroyed the missile. Not even NK is crazy enough to just let a rogue missile crash into Japan.

Vinea

:lol:


Oh, the comedy never stops.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airborne_Laser

:smokey:

[jimmac]

Originally posted by occam whisker
:lol:


Oh, the comedy never stops.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airborne_Laser

:smokey:


I agree!:lol:

-----------------------------------------------------------

" Originally scheduled for operation by 2008, due to development difficulties the program was "rescoped". The current plan calls for a prototype ABL to attempt shoot down of a test missile in 2008, delaying the final production design until after this test. The MDA says this is to allow design changes based on data acquired during the test. In essence it delays the ABL attaining operational capability for several years.

The plan has been for the U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA) and the Air Force to develop two prototype aircraft. The Air Force would then take over subsequent development. "

-----------------------------------------------------------


This might work someday. But not yesterday.



:smokey:

[occam whisker]

The Airborne Laser (ABL) weapons system, designated YAL-1A, is a megawatt class chemical oxygen iodine laser (COIL) primarily designed to shoot down theatre ballistic missiles (TBMs) similar to the Scud while in boost phase. The laser system is fitted to a heavily modified Boeing 747-400F freighter and is still in the test period. The laser has been test fired on the ground but not yet in flight. However a much less powerful early flying prototype successfully shot down several missiles in the 1980s. It was called the Airborne Laser Laboratory, and was a technological pathfinder for the ABL [1].

The ABL doesn\'t burn through a missile, or disintegrate it. Rather it heats the missile skin, weakening it and causing failure due to flight stresses. If proven successful, a fleet of seven Boeing 747s with the ABL system would be constructed. In operation they would be divided between two combat theaters.

Team ABL proposed and won the contract for this system in 1996.

[jimmac]

Originally posted by occam whisker
The Airborne Laser (ABL) weapons system, designated YAL-1A, is a megawatt class chemical oxygen iodine laser (COIL) primarily designed to shoot down theatre ballistic missiles (TBMs) similar to the Scud while in boost phase. The laser system is fitted to a heavily modified Boeing 747-400F freighter and is still in the test period. The laser has been test fired on the ground but not yet in flight. However a much less powerful early flying prototype successfully shot down several missiles in the 1980s. It was called the Airborne Laser Laboratory, and was a technological pathfinder for the ABL [1].

The ABL doesn\'t burn through a missile, or disintegrate it. Rather it heats the missile skin, weakening it and causing failure due to flight stresses. If proven successful, a fleet of seven Boeing 747s with the ABL system would be constructed. In operation they would be divided between two combat theaters.

Team ABL proposed and won the contract for this system in 1996.


And.......?

[occam whisker]

Originally posted by vinea

You might see more technical discussion but no one credible will suggest a boost phase intercept is possible anytime soon even if in theory a SM-3 is a potential ascent/mid-course inteceptor.

Vinea


:lol:

[jimmac]

Originally posted by occam whisker
:lol:

It's 2 years away ( at least ).

Right now it doesn't exist yet.

It's not part of the reality right now.

And even after they start testing it again in 2008 there's no guarantee that it will work.

Get it?

[occam whisker]

Sorry, but our friend vinea is about as credible as the NYT and Time magazine combined.

[jimmac]

Originally posted by occam whisker
Sorry, but our friend vinea is about as credible as the NYT and Time magazine combined.

Now you're just rambling.

Are you sure you're not stoned?;)

[occam whisker]

Ha! You hippies never like to deal with reality, but not to worry. According to Howard Dean, \"We\'re about to enter the \'60s again\". :lol:

[jimmac]

Originally posted by occam whisker
Ha! You hippies never like to deal with reality, but not to worry. According to Howard Dean, \"We\'re about to enter the \'60s again\". :lol:

Well given that Bush has been trying to push us back into the 50's ( again ) that would only follow as a natural course ( see earlier post on this subject ).;)

[occam whisker]

Originally posted by jimmac
-----------------------------------------------------------
\" Heh, no source any more credible than Time exists on the net regarding missile defense systems. \"

-----------------------------------------------------------

Time\'s a \" Hippie \" magazine. Didn\'t you know?:lol:


Actually, I called Time magazine \"Saudi camel shit\". Meaning, that it\'s camel shit that is owned by the Saudis.

[jimmac]

Originally posted by occam whisker
Actually, I called Time magazine \"Saudi camel shit\". Meaning, that it\'s camel shit that is owned by the Saudis.


Yada, yada, yada.

Whatever.

[occam whisker]

Originally posted by jimmac
Yada, yada, yada.

Whatever.


Heheh. I notice you aint laughing no more. :lol:

[Placebo]

There's a better thread about this on SomethingAwful because SomethingAwful is a better forum.

[hardeeharhar]

Originally posted by Placebo
There's a better thread about this on SomethingAwful because SomethingAwful is a better forum.

That really isn't saying much.

[jimmac]

Originally posted by occam whisker
Heheh. I notice you aint laughing no more. :lol:


Nah. It's just that you're running out of material.;)

[vinea]

Originally posted by occam whisker
:lol:

Oh, the comedy never stops.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airborne_Laser

:smokey:

Heh, you want to use Wikipedia as an authoritative source? Mmmmkay.

In any case ABL was downgraded from a weapon system to a "technology demonstration".

http://www.military.com/features/0,15240,88020,00.html

As such, I dunno that they can expect full funding for block 2007 and 2008 given the costs of the current war. They already lost $5B from their budget between 2006 and 2011.

“During the period up to the lethal shoot-down, the program manager will capture additional knowledge that will assist in future design alternatives for the second ABL; in addition, this realignment has added flexibility to the overall [Ballistic Missile Defense] program by making resources available for other efforts and allowing us to avoid premature termination of promising technologies.”

In other words: we may have to reprogram money to pay for other projects that are more likely to bear near term fruit. Like the Aegis SM-3 system. And only the ABL or the KEI will move forward from 2008. One or the other boost phase system will get cut.

In short, the vibes from "hippy" sources like MDA are that their boost phase intercept programs have "issues" that aren't likely to be solved anytime soon and the money is starting to get diverted to other purposes. On the plus side, it wasn't outright cancelled which was a real (if unlikely) possibility.

In August of 2005 a congressional report noted that the system was seriously overweight. A design goal of 14 laser modules were supposed to weigh 175,000 lbs. 6 laser modules currently weigh 180,000 lbs. Pretty much you're looking at a 50% reduction in laser power from the design goal as things stood in 2005.

Other key challenges are targetting and adaptive optics. Hard to get good visibility into these areas (no pun intended) given the secrecy of subjects but its considered "challenging" to put it mildly.

The study also notes:

"The lethality test is important for a number of reasons, many of which have to do with the long advocated potential for this ABL test aircraft for emergency or contingency missions immediately after the lethality test. First, the test will demonstrate whether or how well the various ABL subsystems and component parts are working together. The fact that this test has been delayed several times and for several years now, suggests to some that continued systems integration problems are forcing this delay."

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/RL32123.pdf

(yeah, FAS is a "hippy" org...but the report is from the CRS)

Given that we have, in the past, released weapon systems that were not quite effective for the morale factor against ballistic missiles (Patriot) and have fielded another ABM system with dubious capabilities (GMD) it seems real unlikely that the ABL is operational even in an emergency scenario. Even if it WERE capable we'd hardly bother to shoot down a test missle and show our hand if we're keeping this capability uber-sekrit by sandbagging ABL program status...

A 747 in high orbit doing figure 8s within 400km of your missile launch site is hardly stealthy. The No Dong test facility is around that distance from the S. Korean border so its probable that they'd send someone to have a look-see on their side of the border. The ABL has a distinctive nose so it'd be kinda hard to mistake it for something else if you can get within visual range.

So...that was the long winded way of saying a working ABL is the stuff of Hollywood at the moment. A semi-operational emergency system, even in 2008, is a long shot (heh, again, no pun intended) given the spotty record of both the ABL and ABM systems in general.

As I said in the Rush thread...talk shows have significantly dumbed down the conservative base. Perhaps that's just my misremembering the "good old days" when I could trust fellow Republicans not to be quite as gullible on defense and foreign policy issues.

Better a cokehead hippy than a dittohead conservative. At least the cokeheads had a better time while killing their brain cells.

Vinea

PS As an aside, the 2006 flight tests are with low powered lasers against a NKC-135 aircraft with a ballistic missile painted on the side. The high power lasers are being refurb'd for installation in 2007 for ground tests prior to the full up demonstration in 2008.

[occam whisker]

Originally posted by vinea


Better a cokehead hippy than a dittohead conservative. At least the cokeheads had a better time while killing their brain cells.

Vinea

Better an optimist than a pessimist. Yes, the system was downgraded due to budget constraints and funding being redirected elsewhere, but that can change with a shoot-down in 2008. Or 2006. :D

Anyway, I thought your statement regards boost phase intercept technology was rather absolutist and from my standpoint smelled of ignorance. I showed that there are such programs, and that they might be viable in the VERY near future.

[vinea]

Originally posted by occam whisker
Better an optimist than a pessimist. Yes, the system was downgraded due to budget constraints and funding being redirected elsewhere, but that can change with a shoot-down in 2008. Or 2006. :D

Anyway, I thought your statement regards boost phase intercept technology was rather absolutist and from my standpoint smelled of ignorance. I showed that there are such programs, and that they might be viable in the VERY near future.

There is being a pessimist and there's being a realist. If it sounded absolutist it's more from being moderately informed than ignorant of the current state of the art (as much as a layperson can be informed anyway). Our shooting down the Korean test missile with hidden technology makes about as much sense as our shooting down that TWA flight or hiding UFOs in the desert.

A working combat laser is just one of those things that were viable in the "next few years" since I started voting. Kinda like viable voice recognition. Yes, I actually use dragon from time to time and its much better than what we had in 1986 but not so much as to give up a keyboard.

Vinea

[Gilsch]

Is this guy for real? Someone's been watching way too many Star Wars re-runs.

[SDW2001]

Originally posted by jimmac
What do you know? We're in agreement on something!

However the problem remains and I don't think we'd have the international support if we just resorted to military force on our own. Just a statement not that I've heard we'll do that.

Holy crap! We do agree! We need to mark this down jimmac.

I don't support military action at the moment. However, if we think there is an imminent threat from a fueled missile, or troops massing near the border of SK, or both...I'd suppport a pre-emptive strike.

[Bergermeister]

Go quickly to CNN... they are flashing a headline saying NK is not readying another missile for launch and are quoting "untelligence reports"!!!


Edit: It has been corrected.

[jimmac]

Originally posted by occam whisker
Better an optimist than a pessimist. Yes, the system was downgraded due to budget constraints and funding being redirected elsewhere, but that can change with a shoot-down in 2008. Or 2006. :D

Anyway, I thought your statement regards boost phase intercept technology was rather absolutist and from my standpoint smelled of ignorance. I showed that there are such programs, and that they might be viable in the VERY near future.


Your source said 08. It didn't say anything about 06.

So unless you have secret info from the Bat phone or something........:rolleyes:

[occam whisker]

Originally posted by jimmac
Your source said 08. It didn\'t say anything about 06.

So unless you have secret info from the Bat phone or something........:rolleyes:


I said I have my suspicions.

[jimmac]

Originally posted by occam whisker
I said I have my suspicions.


You mean wishful thinking.

[occam whisker]

Originally posted by jimmac
You mean wishful thinking.

And is that so bad?

[vinea]

Originally posted by occam whisker
And is that so bad?

It is if you're deciding on what makes for good foreign policy from your leaders.

While you or I have a very small impact, talk show hosts that promote the idea that we shot down the NK missile (and I did hear that opinion on the radio yesterday from some conservative host) they reach a large and evidently gullible base. Who are very vocal if not very bright leading to politicians pandering to that conservative base to make some dumb decisions.

Wishful thinking used to be the purview of liberal Democrats...

Vinea

[jimmac]

Originally posted by occam whisker
And is that so bad?


No but that's not how you were portraying this originally.

Oh puller of chains.;)

[jimmac]

Void double post.

[occam whisker]

Originally posted by vinea
It is if you\'re deciding on what makes for good foreign policy from your leaders.



Vinea, where are you getting this from?


Here\'s what I said:

Originally posted by occam whisker
The missiles I heard failed in the first 35 or 40 seconds. Must be humiliating for Kim Jong-Il. Wonder if he might try something just to save face.

Of course, the Iranian buyers of NOKOR technology might also be concerned. Reminds me of the IDF over Lebanon against the Syrians. Nothing is funnier than when the enemy finally realizes they bought BILLIONS worth of junk. LOL

[vinea]

Originally posted by occam whisker
Vinea, where are you getting this from?

Here\'s what I said:


Oh, I have my suspisions with this one. A 35 to 40 sec failure, sounds like the missiles were in their boost-phase. That's about right for a missile defense system to do its magic.




If you believe we have a credible missile defense system (enough to try to ridicule folks for thinking otherwise) you would want to take a harder line against countries with a limited launch capability (i.e. NK and Iran) and tend toward pre-emptive solutions as there is lower risk to the US and out allies. If we had a 400km range boost-phase interceptor that worked we wouldn't have as much to worry about either country from a missile perspective.

You might vote for someone who talks a hard line game and might get some idiot that believes in the same "magic" technology you do with potentially unpleasant results.

As I said, it used to be democrats that had the francise on wishful thinking vis a vis defense and foreign policy.

Vinea

[occam whisker]

You\'re reading too much into what was said. I raised the possibility that a certain scenario might be possible, even likely. You disagree. That\'s fine. I think the rest of your reply has more to do with the fact that you\'re just sore about the fact that I dismissed Time magazine as a source I might want to consider reading, as well as the fact that I pointed out that your original statement was incorrect and rather misleading.

[jimmac]

Originally posted by occam whisker
You\'re reading too much into what was said. I raised the possibility that a certain scenario might be possible, even likely. You disagree. That\'s fine. I think the rest of your reply has more to do with the fact that you\'re just sore about the fact that I dismissed Time magazine as a source I might want to consider reading, as well as the fact that I pointed out that your original statement was incorrect and rather misleading.


-----------------------------------------------------------

" Oh, I have my suspisions with this one. A 35 to 40 sec failure, sounds like the missiles were in their boost-phase. That's about right for a missile defense system to do its magic. "

-----------------------------------------------------------


I just don't seem to see the word " possible " here do you?
;)

As a matter of fact given the amount of evidence to the contrary ( that's been posted here in response ) I think it's very unlikely. Even impossible.

[occam whisker]

Originally posted by jimmac
-----------------------------------------------------------

\" Oh, I have my suspisions with this one. A 35 to 40 sec failure, sounds like the missiles were in their boost-phase. That\'s about right for a missile defense system to do its magic. \"

-----------------------------------------------------------


I just don\'t seem to see the word \" possible \" here do you?
;)

As a matter of fact given the amount of evidence to the contrary ( that\'s been posted here in response ) I think it\'s very unlikely. Even impossible.

There is no evidence. What there is, is speculation and inferences based on gleamed public sources. Further, neither you nor Vinea nor I know how accurate that public information is. These are top secret military programs, and since neither of us is remotely connected to these programs, the best that can be said is, that one is suspicious about this or that scenario likely to have occurred. Which is precisely what I said originally. :D

[jimmac]

Originally posted by occam whisker
There is no evidence. What there is, is speculation and inferences based on gleamed public sources. Further, neither you nor Vinea nor I know how accurate that public information is. These are top secret military programs, and since neither of us is remotely connected to these programs, the best that can be said is, that one is suspicious about this or that scenario likely to have occurred. Which is precisely what I said originally. :D

In other words you got your info via the Bat Phone.:lol:

[jimmac]

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapcf/07/06/korea.missile.us/index.html



Well it looks like they never had control of the missile.

[occam whisker]

Originally posted by jimmac
In other words you got your info via the Bat Phone.:lol:



In other words.... In other words.... In other words...

:No:


In other words you figure everyone else here is too stupid to figure out what I\'ve written without you having to translate it for them.

[jimmac]

Originally posted by occam whisker
In other words.... In other words.... In other words...

:No:


In other words you figure everyone else here is too stupid to figure out what I\'ve written without you having to translate it for them.


You're still not laughing.;)


By the way.....http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13752067/

From that news conference :

" Bush said the United States had "a reasonable chance" of shooting down the long-range missile, if it had not failed.

But he also said that "our anti-ballistic systems are modest, they are new."

[occam whisker]

Originally posted by jimmac
You\'re still not laughing.;)

That\'s because my cheek muscles are already dead sore from you guys. :grumble: :lol:

[occam whisker]

Originally posted by jimmac
By the way.....http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13752067/

From that news conference :

\" Bush said the United States had \"a reasonable chance\" of shooting down the long-range missile, if it had not failed.

But he also said that \"our anti-ballistic systems are modest, they are new.\"


I think that\'s the best approach. Let the NOKORs think it failed. :D

[jimmac]

Originally posted by occam whisker
That\'s because my cheek muscles are already dead sore from you guys. :grumble: :lol:

Better.

[jimmac]

Originally posted by occam whisker
I think that\'s the best approach. Let the NOKORs think it failed. :D


Yeah right.:no:

[backtomac]

My original post should have been clearer. I don't think that the USA shot down the NK missle. I was referring to expenditures related to missle defense developement. It may not be a bad idea to pour millions(billions) of dollars into developement for this if NK and later Iran are going to develope and test ICBMs.