Apple cell phone is real and ready for production - analyst

[AppleInsider]

Analysts for American Technology Research on Tuesday encourage investors to get aggressive in purchasing shares of Apple Computer prior to the launch of the company's much rumored iPod cell phone, which it says is likely to revolutionize the handset industry.

"Our research indicates that an Apple-designed smart phone has moved from concept to prototype and recently has progressed to near completion as a production unit," analyst Shaw Wu told clients in a research note on Tuesday. "We believe this smart phone has been in development for over 12 months and has overcome substantial challenges including design, interference, battery life and other technical glitches."

Pointing to the existing smart phone market, Wu noted the challenges companies face when trying to produce a converged product of high quality. However, he said Apple chief executive Steve Jobs "is finally satisfied with the end product Apple engineers have produced in terms of quality and the right blend of cell phone and portable media player."

Given Jobs' previous track record, the analyst said he has the utmost confidence the Apple branded cell phone, which he says will conform to a sleek candy bar form factor, will meet the highest of standards with "no exception."

"Clearly, we would like to share more detail as we have conducted extensive work on the product pipeline, but for now, here is what we will convey," Wu wrote. "The design will be an iPod nano-like candy bar form factor and come in three colors (we are not certain of the exact colors but we suspect black, white and platinum, similar to Apple's current color scheme of iPods and Macs)."

For Apple to enter the cell phone market in the United States, it would first need to gain approval from the FCC. The process would require the traditionally tight-lipped company to disclose both photos and specifications in public filings prior to launch. But Wu says Apple could avoid premature public disclosure by announcing the device in advance with a later ship date. Moreover, he said, it could possibly submit the filing through a OEM manufacturer, similar to the route Microsoft took by gaining FCC approval for its upcoming Zune player through a Toshiba filing.

Still, what is unclear to Wu is Apple's go-to-market strategy for the device, which he believes is an ongoing and serious debate within the Cupertino, Calif.-based company. While it could take the traditional route and partner with existing wireless giants like Cingular and Verizon, it could also adopt the MVNO (mobile virtual network operator) model, where it would rent and then resell space from such carriers under its own brand.

"We believe the go-to-market strategy is likely the gating factor in Apple shipping its cell phone imminently," the analyst wrote. "However, we believe the company's 155 Apple stores will prove to be a boon regardless of the marketing strategy, proving Apple local presence and competitive advantage."

Nevertheless, Wu said, he is "very positive" about Apple's prospect for building a material smart phone business given its strong brand name, loyal customer base, unique user experience, large installed base of 58 million iPods, and what he estimates to be about 300 million iTunes users.

"Should Apple gain 1 percent share in the billion unit market, we believe that could amount to a $2 billion opportunity assuming around 10 million units at a $200 average selling price (similar to its current iPod), but not including potential services and accessories revenue," he wrote.

Wu notes that despite being universally panned by critics, LG's new Chocolate phone is a strong seller for Verizon, accounting for nearly 15 percent of its volume. "We view this as a positive for Apple as this indicates that the US market has some degree of market acceptance of converged cell phone-MP3 player and that a product of mediocre quality like the LG Chocolate phone can still do very well," he wrote.

Given the results of his findings on the Apple cell phone project, Wu is modeling modest contributions (about $100 million) from cell phone sales into his fiscal year 2007 outlook for the company. "We believe our cell phone assumptions are conservative given the high-end user demand for an Apple cell phone and the key point is that this is an incremental new opportunity that could help drive sales of other Apple products," he told clients.

The analyst is now modeling Apple to generate $22.2 billion in revenue and $2.60 in earnings-per-share during fiscal 2007. He also raised his price target on the iPod maker from $75 to $91.

For additional information on the Apple's cell phone initiative, please see a recent AppleInsider piece, which similarly reported that the device is nearing arrival.[c][ View this article at AppleInsider.com ] (http://www.appleinsider.com/article.php?id=2017)

[backtomac]

One of these days Wu is going to be right.

[icibaqu]

hopefully that day is today and we'll find out sept 12. especially because my phone just got waterlogged yesterday when a friend and i threw eachother into a pool (and i'd forgotten my phone was in my pocket). whoops!

[mugwump]

Wither Mobile OS X? Mobile spotlight, mobile Safari, mobile iCal, mobile Mail, mobile iChat?

This would be a real smartphone, if only Apple could figure out the text entry. Is the keyboard the only way?

[revs]

Ijust got a Nokai N73 on a 18mont contract.. so im in no rush :)

[melgross]

One of these days Wu is going to be right.

He is, a lot more often he isn't, or than people here ever are.

But I hope that the idea of it being a smart phone is correct. that's the only way Apple might be able to take my business from my Treo 700p. Which is the best smart phone around right now.

[pairof9s]

:???:
In the article, it mentions that LG's Chocolate media phone has been panned by critics. I've yet to see these. What are the major complaints on it?

The TV ads make it look "sweet" but that's expected in a PR spin.

[melgross]

:???:
In the article, it mentions that LG's Chocolate media phone has been panned by critics. I've yet to see these. What are the major complaints on it?

The TV ads make it look "sweet" but that's expected in a PR spin.

It's a pretty bad phone.

For one thing, it's supposed to be a music phone. But, unless you buy the music from them, it might not play at all.

[backtomac]

He is, a lot more often he isn't, or than people here ever are.

But I hope that the idea of it being a smart phone is correct. that's the only way Apple might be able to take my business from my Treo 700p. Which is the best smart phone around right now.
Don't get me wrong Mel, I hope he is right and Apple goes with a MVNO model for service. I'll be all over it. It can't be any worse than the phone I have now.

[amac4me]

I hope they release it this year prior to the holiday shopping season. It would generate a lot of buzz as it would be on the wishlist for millions of people.

I'm sure it will be an awesome blend of phone and iPod technology.

[bdj21ya]

It's a good time to be an Apple afficionado. Here's to all those who stuck with them through the hard times.

[Mr. H]

One of these days Wu is going to be right.

Actually, I'm not sure if he's ever been wrong…

…usually by virtue of the fact that he states the bleeding obvious.

In this case however, he seems to have some insider info. It'll be interesting to see how right/wrong he is.

[melgross]

Actually, I'm not sure if he's ever been wrong…

…usually by virtue of the fact that he states the bleeding obvious.

In this case however, he seems to have some insider info. It'll be interesting to see how right/wrong he is.

It's the usual case of something being obvious only AFTER someone else says it.

[xUKHCx]

:???:
In the article, it mentions that LG's Chocolate media phone has been panned by critics. I've yet to see these. What are the major complaints on it?

The TV ads make it look "sweet" but that's expected in a PR spin.


The phone is really slow, if you are a reasonable fast texter then it will regularly miss characters. When going through menus it presents a loading screen and quit often (with a new phone) there would be nothing in the folder. Had it for a week and got rid of it as it was shockingly bad. Went back to the sony ericssons, best phones out there (as yet).

[Denton]

I've been using a Nokia for years. Their menu structure is Applesque (ie. just like the iPod, iTunes, finder, etc). Seems to me that Apple has had some problems with patent infringement by using this menu structure (Creative?). I'd be willing to bet that Nokia holds a patent when it comes to such a structure on a cell-phone (but I might be wrong). I certainly know that Motorola and Samsung have terrible UI (comparing my brother's phones to mine), and so I suspect the reason is that they can't use the nice menu that Nokia has for patent reasons. Now, it's one thing for Apple to throw $100M at Creative, but Nokia will not be so easy. (Correct me if I'm wrong about cell-phone UIs.)

[melgross]

According to MacDailyNews:

http://macdailynews.com/index.php/weblog/comments/10782/

But it's back now. I'm not sure what changed. I'm not there every day.

Can anyone tell if anything has been changed?

[Chucker]

"The design will be an iPod nano-like candy bar form factor

Oh, so you've seen it, Wu?

and come in three colors (we are not certain of the exact colors but we suspect black, white and platinum, similar to Apple's current color scheme of iPods and Macs)."

Oh, so you haven't seen it, Wu?

[ShadowX]

The phone is really slow, if you are a reasonable fast texter then it will regularly miss characters. When going through menus it presents a loading screen and quit often (with a new phone) there would be nothing in the folder. Had it for a week and got rid of it as it was shockingly bad. Went back to the sony ericssons, best phones out there (as yet).

Yep - I played around with one at a Best Buy as I'm eligible, today in fact, to upgrade my phone at a discount. It felt cheap and the touch menu navigation SUCKED. After about 30 seconds I simply put it down and walked away, shocked at how bad it was. This is coming from someone who still has and enjoys a 3G iPod... it has its quirks but it's light-years ahead of the Chocolate... funny how it is over 3 years old!

I'm glad my Verizon contract is up in 2 months... can't wait to see what Apple may have up its sleeve :)

[ReCompile]

Has there been any mention of a camera or video capabilities?

[Haggar]

It will be a 1 button phone because Steve says people find the 10 digit keypad confusing. To operate the phone, you press the button once to dial a 1, double-press to dial 2, triple-press to dial 3, and so on. Other functions can be activated by holding down the button for a certain length of time. Hold for 1 second to access the menu, hold 2 seconds to turn the phone on or off, hold 3 seconds to activate speakerphone, hold 4 seconds to turn vibrator on or off, etc.

Next will be Apple's own line of cars with only 1 foot pedal because Steve says 3 pedals are confusing.

[bdj21ya]

It will be a 1 button phone because Steve says people find the 10 digit keypad confusing. To operate the phone, you press the button once to dial a 1, double-press to dial 2, triple-press to dial 3, and so on. Other functions can be activated by holding down the button for a certain length of time. Hold for 1 second to access the menu, hold 2 seconds to turn the phone on or off, hold 3 seconds to activate speakerphone, hold 4 seconds to turn vibrator on or off, etc.

Next will be Apple's own line of cars with only 1 foot pedal because Steve says 3 pedals are confusing.

:lol: :lol: :lol: I think this is a good candidate for the funniest thing I will read/hear today, and it's still not even 9:30 in the morning. I hope Steve someday realizes that people are actuall pretty good with multiple buttons. I think this is one thing that is really holding Apple back. For example, how many people would like a good "off" button on their iPod so they didn't have to sit there waiting, especially since holding play only works about half the time on my wife's Nano.

[psilopsyche]

:lol: :lol: :lol: I think this is a good candidate for the funniest thing I will read/hear today, and it's still not even 9:30 in the morning. I hope Steve someday realizes that people are actuall pretty good with multiple buttons. I think this is one thing that is really holding Apple back. For example, how many people would like a good "off" button on their iPod so they didn't have to sit there waiting, especially since holding play only works about half the time on my wife's Nano.

:lol: Funny! However it has been said that perfection is not reached at the point where you can add no more, but at the point where nothing else can be taken away.

[admactanium]

:???:
In the article, it mentions that LG's Chocolate media phone has been panned by critics. I've yet to see these. What are the major complaints on it?

The TV ads make it look "sweet" but that's expected in a PR spin.
my girlfriend was ready to buy one just based on seeing it in the commercials. i was prone to be positive about it until i played with it. it really is a piece of junk. the front navigation dial is also not a dial. it's just lousy touch-sensitive buttons that also press. but not like the ipod's click-wheel at all. i was CONSTANTLY pressing the wrong buttons by accident. and the menu structure is just abysmal. i've never gone from expecting to like a product to actually hating it in such a short time. my girlfriend disliked it enough that she just delayed her purchasing decision for a few weeks since it was such a disappointment. plus the interface design is gaudy colorful and just ugly.

[melgross]

Oh, so you've seen it, Wu?



Oh, so you haven't seen it, Wu?

He doesn't have to have seen it. all he has to have done is speak to people who know about it. That doesn't mean that they will know everything about it.

[Chucker]

He doesn't have to have seen it. all he has to have done is speak to people who know about it. That doesn't mean that they will know everything about it.

If he merely has sources, and hasn't actually seen any proof himself, why does he make it sound like this is definite, rather than just a rumor?

[melgross]

If he merely has sources, and hasn't actually seen any proof himself, why does he make it sound like this is definite, rather than just a rumor?

Because his sources are better than the ones the rumors sites use. They get to talk to the executives, not the errand boy.

It's like the WSJ Intel rumor.

[sCreeD]

:lol: :lol: :lol: I think this is a good candidate for the funniest thing I will read/hear today, and it's still not even 9:30 in the morning. I hope Steve someday realizes that people are actuall pretty good with multiple buttons. I think this is one thing that is really holding Apple back. For example, how many people would like a good "off" button on their iPod so they didn't have to sit there waiting, especially since holding play only works about half the time on my wife's Nano.

Call me crazy (pause...) but I thought about a phone with only a iPod scroll wheel. Most people don't dial somebody out of the blue. They usually have them in their contacts and choosing a contact with a scroll wheel would be as easy as choosing a playlist. Entering a new number could also be done using the wheel.

A before anyone raises the issue, 911 would be a built-in preset. :p

[Denton]

Call me crazy (pause...) but I thought about a phone with only a iPod scroll wheel. Most people don't dial somebody out of the blue. They usually have them in their contacts and choosing a contact with a scroll wheel would be as easy as choosing a playlist. Entering a new number could also be done using the wheel.:p

You don't send text messages, do you?

[T'hain Esh Kelch]

Good timing. My T630 is dying!

And I could probably throw it in with my ADC discount, while i Buy my Merom MBP in a month.. ;)

[melgross]

You don't send text messages, do you?

You could use the scrollwheel to select letters, numbers, etc from a matrix on the screen. Easier than those two or three button combinations on most phones.

[Kesh]

You could use the scrollwheel to select letters, numbers, etc from a matrix on the screen. Easier than those two or three button combinations on most phones.

You've never tried entering a message on a gaming console using the controller, have you?

:)

Suffice to say, I think using an iPod scroll wheel as a "rotary dial" phone would be great... but it'd be murder for text messaging.

[aegisdesign]

You could use the scrollwheel to select letters, numbers, etc from a matrix on the screen. Easier than those two or three button combinations on most phones.

T9 Text dictionaries v scrolling through letters like an arcade machine circa 1978? Don't be silly. :smokey:

Maybe they'll bring back the Newton text recognition for their phone.

IMHO, they can do no better than to reskin UIQ 3.1 from Sony Ericsson and a quick tidy up. They've already got experience of writing Symbian applications as that's how iSync works on Nokia Series 60 and UIQ. The chipsets for Symbian are a fraction of the power requirements of Windows Mobile and Palm.

If they base the design on American users then it'll be laughed out of Europe as a smartphone. If they base it on European design then there'll just be cries of "Can't I get a stinkin phone that just dials like a phone with no other crap on?" from America.

Then again they could just sell it on style alone like Motorola and LG do. Crap phones that are a pain to use but mighty purdy.

[sCreeD]

You don't send text messages, do you?
Nope, not a one.

Proud of myself about that. :D

If I did, I'd buy a Blackberry.

[SpamSandwich]

Wu's really sticking his neck out here. If he's wrong this time, I'm changing my sig. :)

[McHuman]

This is it :

http://www.nitenichiryu.org/images/iPhone.jpg


;)
well, probably more like this :

http://www.floatingpears.com/garage/iPhone.jpg

[Johnny Mozzarella]

I hope they introduce more than one model of phone.
A basic and an advanced.

Did I mention my phone contract expires on Oct 17th? : )

[vinney57]

This is it :

http://www.nitenichiryu.org/images/iPhone.jpg


;)
well, probably more like this :

http://www.floatingpears.com/garage/iPhone.jpg

Wow, this would totally OWN the Pixie demographic.

[bdkennedy1]

Let's hope it's not made out of the crappy, scratchy iPod Nano plastic :)

[melgross]

Wow, this would totally OWN the Pixie demographic.

Now, that's what I call a phone!

[SpamSandwich]

This is it :

http://www.nitenichiryu.org/images/iPhone.jpg


;)
well, probably more like this :

http://www.floatingpears.com/garage/iPhone.jpg

Little Suzy wants to know... does it come in pink?

[backtomac]

This is it :

http://www.nitenichiryu.org/images/iPhone.jpg


;)
well, probably more like this :

http://www.floatingpears.com/garage/iPhone.jpg
<smacks hand on forehead>

Why didn't I think of this first!?

[McHuman]

Let's hope it's not made out of the crappy, scratchy iPod Nano plastic :)

My guess is that it will use the metal housing we are hearing about the new Nanos having. If those go over well, expect the iPhone to follow. The new iPod/iPhone-look will be born Sept 12. :D

[SpamSandwich]

My guess is that it will use the metal housing we are hearing about the new Nanos having. If those go over well, expect the iPhone to follow. The new iPod/iPhone-look will be born Sept 12. :D

Nano...iPhone...nano...iPhone... waitagoshdarnminute!... the nano is the iPhone! The iPhone is the nano! (smacks head with rubber hammer, falls on ground and runs in a circle á la Curly from the Three Stooges) :lol:

[Waking the Dead]

Nano...iPhone...nano...iPhone... waitagoshdarnminute!... the nano is the iPhone! The iPhone is the nano! (smacks head with rubber hammer, falls on ground and runs in a circle á la Curly from the Three Stooges) :lol:
Finkle is Einhohorn.... Einhorn is a man!

<insert Crying Game them music here>

[SpamSandwich]

Finkle is Einhohorn.... Einhorn is a man!

<insert Crying Game them music here>

:lol: :lol: :lol:

[Caribou Killa]

God i hope the iPhone or whatever isnt a flop. I want for so much to have people really respect the iPhone. It seems silly to want this one product to succeed so much but it seems like if it flops its going to be a really big flop.

[SpamSandwich]

God i hope the iPhone or whatever isnt a flop. I want for so much to have people really respect the iPhone. It seems silly to want this one product to succeed so much but it seems like if it flops its going to be a really big flop.

Trust me, if Virgin Mobile can succeed, Apple has millions of rabid fans (I'm one of 'em) ready to pounce on this when it's (possibly) announced. :D

[IQ78]

My guess is that it will use the metal housing we are hearing about the new Nanos having. If those go over well, expect the iPhone to follow. The new iPod/iPhone-look will be born Sept 12. :D


Come on folks, there has been nothing indicating that this is going to be announced next week. A matter-of-fact, it seems like it is likely 3-6 months away from going into production from reading Wu's remarks. Or did I miss something?


I am stupid.

[SpamSandwich]

Come on folks, there has been nothing indicating that this is going to be announced next week. A matter-of-fact, it seems like it is likely 3-6 months away from going into production from reading Wu's remarks. Or did I miss something?


I am stupid.


I'd give 'em up to another year from now to allow a shakeout in the cell carrier biz, and time for them to build up their network (if they're going that route).

[aegisdesign]

Trust me, if Virgin Mobile can succeed, Apple has millions of rabid fans (I'm one of 'em) ready to pounce on this when it's (possibly) announced. :D

VirginMobile sell multiple different phones from different manufacturers and contracts. There's not been a successful phone company built on selling just the one phone.

[SpamSandwich]

VirginMobile sell multiple different phones from different manufacturers and contracts. There's not been a successful phone company built on selling just the one phone.

Who says Apple will only sell one model of iPhone (if and when they decide to do such a thing)?

[aegisdesign]

Who says Apple will only sell one model of iPhone (if and when they decide to do such a thing)?

Perhaps there's three different models. That's still about 50 less than any other company.

In Europe, they'll have to sell it through Vodaphone, Orange, O2, TMobile, Telefonica and all the other local providers or they'll otherwise have no high street presence. They'll HAVE to sell it with a contract from one of them also else they'll cost money. We're used to mostly free phones in the UK or at most maybe $100-150.

Why pay for an Apple phone when you can get SE P990i smartphones for free?

[melgross]

Perhaps there's three different models. That's still about 50 less than any other company.

In Europe, they'll have to sell it through Vodaphone, Orange, O2, TMobile, Telefonica and all the other local providers or they'll otherwise have no high street presence. They'll HAVE to sell it with a contract from one of them also else they'll cost money. We're used to mostly free phones in the UK or at most maybe $100-150.

Why pay for an Apple phone when you can get SE P990i smartphones for free?

While I'm not familiar with that model, I would say that people would join up BECAUSE of Apple's phones. One doesn't need 50 different models to become successful.

Apple would be appealing to a select group of people. If they get a few million people to join a service, they could make a few billion a year. Over time they could add a few more models.

Creative, with its 30 or so mp3 player models, has only 4.3% share of the market. There is no safety in numbers.

I well understand that the phone business is different. But I doubt that Apple would expect to get more than a fraction of users.

The reason why manufacturers have so many models, and why phone companies do as well is because they are trying to get as many customers as possible. We know very well, every time we complain why Apple doesn't make the model we really, really want, that they are willing to give up customers who they think don't make up their demographic.

[SpamSandwich]

Perhaps there's three different models. That's still about 50 less than any other company.

In Europe, they'll have to sell it through Vodaphone, Orange, O2, TMobile, Telefonica and all the other local providers or they'll otherwise have no high street presence. They'll HAVE to sell it with a contract from one of them also else they'll cost money. We're used to mostly free phones in the UK or at most maybe $100-150.

Why pay for an Apple phone when you can get SE P990i smartphones for free?

Ugh. I just looked at it http://www.sonyericsson.com/spg.jsp?cc=global&lc=en&ver=4001&template=pp1_1_1&zone=pp&lm=pp1&pid=10336

The reason you'd pay for the iPhone (over the above horror) would be thanks to beautiful, economical, intelligent design and ease of use. Not for a 15-in-1 combo corkscrew-phone-flosser.

[aegisdesign]

Ugh. I just looked at it http://www.sonyericsson.com/spg.jsp?cc=global&lc=en&ver=4001&template=pp1_1_1&zone=pp&lm=pp1&pid=10336

The reason you'd pay for the iPhone (over the above horror) would be thanks to beautiful, economical, intelligent design and ease of use. Not for a 15-in-1 combo corkscrew-phone-flosser.

If it doesn't do all those functions that the p990 does, I'm not buying. Pretty would be nice too and I'm sure Apple could do a LOT better than Sony Ericsson there, but for a smartphone these days, the p990 is the one to beat. I've the earlier p910i and that is almost as good but needs wifi and push email support. UIQ 3 is quite a bit better than UIQ2 on my p910 too.

If Apple are just doing candybar non-smartphones then I've got my SE T610 still for when I don't need a smartphone.

Typically in the UK we have about 3 phones each for different occasions.

[aegisdesign]

Apple would be appealing to a select group of people. If they get a few million people to join a service, they could make a few billion a year. Over time they could add a few more models.

Possibly. But this isn't selling iPods. There's a whole extra infrastructure needed for a phone company, even if they're MVNOing someone else's phone company.

[SpamSandwich]

If it doesn't do all those functions that the p990 does, I'm not buying. Pretty would be nice too and I'm sure Apple could do a LOT better than Sony Ericsson there, but for a smartphone these days, the p990 is the one to beat. I've the earlier p910i and that is almost as good but needs wifi and push email support. UIQ 3 is quite a bit better than UIQ2 on my p910 too.

If Apple are just doing candybar non-smartphones then I've got my SE T610 still for when I don't need a smartphone.

Typically in the UK we have about 3 phones each for different occasions.

First of all, anything that complicated is not a smartphone as far as I'm concerned. Second, people use 3 different phones for different occasions? That is the clearest indicator yet of poor industrial/ergonomic design in the current market leader. Apple should be able to destroy 50% or better of the current phone makers. :lol:

[addabox]

......Why pay for an Apple phone when you can get SE P990i smartphones for free?

Because you're purchasing a Nano that has a phone in it. If you were planning on getting a Nano (and millions are and will be), why not pay a modest premium to have it be a phone?

Yes, entirely speculative as to form factor and pricing, but it makes sense: Apple will market this an iPod that has the killer feature of being a phone.

[aegisdesign]

First of all, anything that complicated is not a smartphone as far as I'm concerned.

It's not complicated. It's one of the least complicated phones I've ever had. It's less complicated to use than a Nokia from 5-6 years ago.

Second, people use 3 different phones for different occasions? That is the clearest indicator yet of poor industrial/ergonomic design in the current market leader. Apple should be able to destroy 50% or better of the current phone makers. :lol:

No. I have three phones.

1) SE p910i - Everyday phone that does everything.
2) SE T610 - It's small. It fits in my trouser pocket without looking like I've a hard on.
3) Nokia 6310i - It's battery lasts about 3 weeks and I can treat it like shit as it's old. It's the one that gets bashed about in the bottom of my Camelback when out biking.


Replace those three phones with iPod, iPod Nano and iPod Shuffle and perhaps you'll have more of a clue.

[rtdunham]

Analysts for American Technology Research on Tuesday encourage investors to get aggressive in purchasing shares of Apple Computer prior to the launch of the company's much rumored iPod cell phone, which it says is likely to revolutionize the handset industry.

Three possibilities.

Wu's simply wrong.

Wu's right and has been told by Apple that it's ok to release this information.

Wu's right, Apple doesn't approve of the release of the news, and Wu's going to find it hard in the future to get the information he needs to accurately track the company.

Since I'm in the market for an Apple phone, i hope one of the latter two possibilities is accurate. But either way, this will be an interesting story in the business market.

[aegisdesign]

Because you're purchasing a Nano that has a phone in it. If you were planning on getting a Nano (and millions are and will be), why not pay a modest premium to have it be a phone?

The SE P990i plays music too. So does the earlier P910i. SE's Walkman phones are pretty good music players. As good as a Nano IMHO. Plus you can stick MemoryStick cards in them so your storage potential is much greater.

This is what Apple will be increasingly up against as the technology from the smartphones trickles down to the cheaper phones. It won't be long before phones like this will be available on Pay-As-You-Go contracts here.

[melgross]

Possibly. But this isn't selling iPods. There's a whole extra infrastructure needed for a phone company, even if they're MVNOing someone else's phone company.

Of course. And Virgin didn't have one either. But they are doing very well, at least here in the States.

I'm sure that if Apple wanted to do this, they could. They aren't a small, just barely making it, compamy any more.

[melgross]

Three possibilities.

Wu's simply wrong.

Wu's right and has been told by Apple that it's ok to release this information.

Wu's right, Apple doesn't approve of the release of the news, and Wu's going to find it hard in the future to get the information he needs to accurately track the company.

Since I'm in the market for an Apple phone, i hope one of the latter two possibilities is accurate. But either way, this will be an interesting story in the business market.

All of these analysts poke around. In fact, it's not legal for companies to cut them out because of it. It's considerd to be a proper method of getting information for the public.

[SpamSandwich]

It's not complicated. It's one of the least complicated phones I've ever had. It's less complicated to use than a Nokia from 5-6 years ago.

Alright, I'll just tell you I've refused to buy a new phone for about 3-4 years now, opting to keep my old Samsung S105 I got from T-Mobile (it happens to be a tri-band, something American phone makers no longer offer as standard) until I find something better. I'm still waiting.

No. I have three phones.

1) SE p910i - Everyday phone that does everything.
2) SE T610 - It's small. It fits in my trouser pocket without looking like I've a hard on.

You know, some girls are attracted to the whole big phone in pants look.

3) Nokia 6310i - It's battery lasts about 3 weeks and I can treat it like shit as it's old. It's the one that gets bashed about in the bottom of my Camelback when out biking.

Replace those three phones with iPod, iPod Nano and iPod Shuffle and perhaps you'll have more of a clue.

I'd love to.

[aegisdesign]

Of course. And Virgin didn't have one either. But they are doing very well, at least here in the States.

Virgin Mobile have just been bought by NTL, a cable TV company, in the UK. They weren't doing very well here, falling way behind Vodafone, 3, O2, Orange, T-Mobile and dog knows how many others.

Virgin Mobile sold through hundreds of high street stores here and also through some supermarkets. There are 5 Apple stores in the UK last I checked. Apple have an antagonistic approach to other retailers here too. They still aren't shipping wireless Mighty Mouse to Apple dealers yet for instance. You can only buy it from Apple.

Apple would have to sell through other retailers if they wanted high street presence.

[aegisdesign]

You know, some girls are attracted to the whole big phone in pants look.



"Why do you have two big phones in your trousers? Oh :blush:"


:D

[melgross]

Virgin Mobile have just been bought by NTL, a cable TV company, in the UK. They weren't doing very well here, falling way behind Vodafone, 3, O2, Orange, T-Mobile and dog knows how many others.

Virgin Mobile sold through hundreds of high street stores here and also through some supermarkets. There are 5 Apple stores in the UK last I checked. Apple have an antagonistic approach to other retailers here too. They still aren't shipping wireless Mighty Mouse to Apple dealers yet for instance. You can only buy it from Apple.

Apple would have to sell through other retailers if they wanted high street presence.

Virgin is sold in Sprint stores all over the place, because they provide the network. They are also sold in independent stores, and over the internet.

That would be essencially the same way Apple would sell theirs. Sprint would likely provide the network. They are the biggest provider of this service to third party companies. Disney is now doing this too.

I don't see a problem here.

But, you know, we'll just have to wait.

Even if the phone IS ready, it doesn't mean Apple is ready to sell it.

[Amorya]

You could use the scrollwheel to select letters, numbers, etc from a matrix on the screen. Easier than those two or three button combinations on most phones.

Been done (http://froogle.google.co.uk/froogle?q=nokia+7280&hl=en&lr=&sa=X&oi=froogle&ct=title)

It sucked (http://www.mobile-review.com/review/nokia-7280-en.shtml)

"Entering a number with Nokia7280 is a durable process and it's at least two-three times longer than for usual phones. The device is not very ergonomic in this parameter. I'd recommend to all the fashionable women to enter the contacts to the phone book first (that's better to do via a PC) and then searching for a contact and calling it will take less time."

"Comparing the way text is entered here with standard phones I'd like to say it is slow due to the absence of a keypad and using a circle selector is not a cure. And often entering 70 characters of SMS take about several minutes, that is long."

"The absence of a usual keypad is a disadvantage and the result is low speed of entering numbers and working with texts. That is partly liven down working with the phone book or when the number of incoming calls is much more than outgoing ones. The device is ideal as a second phone for a woman, but it won't be suitable for active work or those who consider themselves a business lady."



I've actually read even more scathing reviews about that input method; that is one of the milder ones I've seen.


Amorya

[Amorya]

Regarding the iPhone, I think I'll pass. Unless:

It has wifi and bluetooth
I can load my own apps onto it, or...
it comes with SSH client, decent web browser, MSN messenger client (AIM or iChat is not good enough), etc.
It has 2mp or so camera
It has screen of greater than 320x240

I'm not being unreasonable in my demands here either. Nearly any modern Nokia will do all of the above. I see an Apple phone not allowing third party software, and that will lose them a sale I suspect, since I doubt they'll support ssh and MSN messenger by default. Lack of wifi could also be an issue.

Does that mean I'm out of the target demographic? Possibly. But the demographic I am in is pretty large and growing :)


Amorya

[SpamSandwich]

Regarding the iPhone, I think I'll pass. Unless:

It has wifi and bluetooth
I can load my own apps onto it, or...
it comes with SSH client, decent web browser, MSN messenger client (AIM or iChat is not good enough), etc.
It has 2mp or so camera
It has screen of greater than 320x240

I'm not being unreasonable in my demands here either. Nearly any modern Nokia will do all of the above. I see an Apple phone not allowing third party software, and that will lose them a sale I suspect, since I doubt they'll support ssh and MSN messenger by default. Lack of wifi could also be an issue.

Does that mean I'm out of the target demographic? Possibly. But the demographic I am in is pretty large and growing :)


Amorya

Yes, you're out of the target demographic (I think). ;)

[tilt]

Maybe I am just dreaming here, but could it not be a Nano/phone with only voice activated everything? To add a contact, spell the name out loud, dictate the number and it's stored. Announce the name to make a call. When someone calls you, hit the 'Play' button to answer the call.

Text Messaging also by dictation preceded by saying "Send Text" or whatever?

Or am I confusing iPhone with HAL? :)

Cheers

[SpamSandwich]

Maybe I am just dreaming here, but could it not be a Nano/phone with only voice activated everything? To add a contact, spell the name out loud, dictate the number and it's stored. Announce the name to make a call. When someone calls you, hit the 'Play' button to answer the call.

Text Messaging also by dictation preceded by saying "Send Text" or whatever?

Or am I confusing iPhone with HAL? :)

Cheers

I think that would be a nightmare to use. On-Star vehicle system uses just a few words for navigation and 1/2 the time it gets it wrong. Voice reco sucks.

[tilt]

I think that would be a nightmare to use. On-Star vehicle system uses just a few words for navigation and 1/2 the time it gets it wrong. Voice reco sucks.

Yeah, but I thought with Apple designing the whole thing it would work better *wishful thinking *

[vinney57]

Regarding the iPhone, I think I'll pass. Unless:

It has wifi and bluetooth
I can load my own apps onto it, or...
it comes with SSH client, decent web browser, MSN messenger client (AIM or iChat is not good enough), etc.
It has 2mp or so camera
It has screen of greater than 320x240

I'm not being unreasonable in my demands here either. Nearly any modern Nokia will do all of the above. I see an Apple phone not allowing third party software, and that will lose them a sale I suspect, since I doubt they'll support ssh and MSN messenger by default. Lack of wifi could also be an issue.

Does that mean I'm out of the target demographic? Possibly. But the demographic I am in is pretty large and growing :)


Amorya

You are out of the target demographic.

[melgross]

Been done (http://froogle.google.co.uk/froogle?q=nokia+7280&hl=en&lr=&sa=X&oi=froogle&ct=title)

It sucked (http://www.mobile-review.com/review/nokia-7280-en.shtml)

"Entering a number with Nokia7280 is a durable process and it's at least two-three times longer than for usual phones. The device is not very ergonomic in this parameter. I'd recommend to all the fashionable women to enter the contacts to the phone book first (that's better to do via a PC) and then searching for a contact and calling it will take less time."

"Comparing the way text is entered here with standard phones I'd like to say it is slow due to the absence of a keypad and using a circle selector is not a cure. And often entering 70 characters of SMS take about several minutes, that is long."

"The absence of a usual keypad is a disadvantage and the result is low speed of entering numbers and working with texts. That is partly liven down working with the phone book or when the number of incoming calls is much more than outgoing ones. The device is ideal as a second phone for a woman, but it won't be suitable for active work or those who consider themselves a business lady."



I've actually read even more scathing reviews about that input method; that is one of the milder ones I've seen.


Amorya

That's because it's never been done correctly.

Just like our keyboards, the letters and numbers are arranged in a very inefficient pattern.

When I said "matrix" I meant that they would be arranged so that the most often used letters would be in the center of the matrix, with the least used ones at the edges. they would be arranged as a circle, so that the letters at the edges would be at the same distance from the center. Same thing for numbers. The numeric keypad works well for this reason. Most movement would be just three letters from the center, in any direction. You could do it with one hand.

The way it is now, you have to move much too far most of the time.

This isn't so difficult, but no one has been interested in trying anything other than the standard lines going abcdefghij etc.

Just learning the T9, ot other methods used is a chore. And if you don't use it all the time, you forget it anyway.

Besides texting is falling out of favor with younger people.

[melgross]

Maybe I am just dreaming here, but could it not be a Nano/phone with only voice activated everything? To add a contact, spell the name out loud, dictate the number and it's stored. Announce the name to make a call. When someone calls you, hit the 'Play' button to answer the call.

Text Messaging also by dictation preceded by saying "Send Text" or whatever?

Or am I confusing iPhone with HAL? :)

Cheers

I can do that, and a lot more with my Treo 700p. there are a couple pf programs that allow voice control, numerous methods of recording, etc. And you can use it on the 2Gb SD card. You can also use the phone as an external HD with it, and put all of the recordings on your computer, to use there.

http://www.palmgear.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=software.showsoftware&PartnerREF=&siteid=1&catid=0&area=software.topsales&searchtitle=Best%2DSelling&searchterm=&step=1&orderby=sales&direction=asc&userid=0&prodid=103548

I can't find the one right now that allows you to control functions with voice, but it's there somewhere. I don't remember the name right now.

[aegisdesign]

You are out of the target demographic.

But that's almost exactly the list of items every smartphone this year will have and that most smartphone users demand. Almost every Nokia S60 and Sony Ericsson UIQ phone this year will have all those features. All the HTC phones will. All the Palm phones will (if they're ever allowed back in to Europe). Some of the not-so-smart phones lower down the ranges have most of those features even.

If Apple are doing a 'smartphone' as Wu states, they'll be laughed out of town without those features, and that's just to catch up with what everybody else has already.

[aegisdesign]

Just learning the T9, ot other methods used is a chore. And if you don't use it all the time, you forget it anyway.

Besides texting is falling out of favor with younger people.

The point being, T9 is well established and many people can type on it as quickly as a qwerty keyboard (also well established).

And where do you get the idea texting is falling out of favour?

It's even going up in America...

"After lagging behind Western Europe and Japan for years, Americans are finally getting into the habit of SMS. 48.7 billion SMS messages were sent in the last six months of 2005, an increase of 50 per cent from 32.5bn in the first six months of last year. About 40 per cent of the more than 200m mobile phone subscribers in the US now use text mes..."

Source: http://www.mobileyouth.org/my_item/sms_traffic_rise_america

[addabox]

But that's almost exactly the list of items every smartphone this year will have and that most smartphone users demand. Almost every Nokia S60 and Sony Ericsson UIQ phone this year will have all those features. All the HTC phones will. All the Palm phones will (if they're ever allowed back in to Europe). Some of the not-so-smart phones lower down the ranges have most of those features even.

If Apple are doing a 'smartphone' as Wu states, they'll be laughed out of town without those features, and that's just to catch up with what everybody else has already.

Since when has Apple been in the business of piling on features to be competitive, or to "catch up"?

You could just as easily make the argument that the iPod lacks a number of "critical" features that users "demand", such as recording, fm radio, flash card, etc.

Or that Apple's laptops fail to bristle with ports and slots and dedicated function keys. Or that the Front Row remote is pathetically underpowered compared to the massive button count of its Windows analogue. Or that the lack of a tablet cripples Apple's line up.

For a certain buyer these are all indeed deficiencies, but keeping it simple is pretty much what Apple is all about. In fact, it often seems the case that Apple achieves ease of use and elegance because they limit the function set, which is to say they have the design discipline to resist "competing" by simply piling on "features".

My guess is Apple will follow a similar design philosophy for an iPhone, focusing on ease of use and elegance within a limited function set. Do a few things, and do them really well.

And yes, I'm sure a certain number of buyers will "laugh it out of town", but there would be quite a few more people who find the merger of a Nano and a clean, well functioning phone with a killer interface to be just the thing.

[aegisdesign]

And yes, I'm sure a certain number of buyers will "laugh it out of town", but there would be quite a few more people who find the merger of a Nano and a clean, well functioning phone with a killer interface to be just the thing.

And if so, that isn't a 'smartphone'.

If it's just a music phone, then it's up against phones that cost £30 on Pay-as-you-go contracts. Pretty much all ultra-low end phones will play mp3s now.

[aegisdesign]

Apparently Palm Treo's are now allowed back in to Europe.

See http://www.vodafonebusinessshop.co.uk/index.cfm?fuseaction=Phones.productdetails&menuactive=1&mnuid=2&sbmid=2.1&prodid=2869

Rumoured to be the Treo 750 with Windows Mobile.

Available Sept 12th

Previously they were banned due to containing dangerous substances banned in Europe.

[sunilraman]

It's a good time to be an Apple afficionado. Here's to all those who stuck with them through the hard times.

I'm not one of those people, but some of my happiest moments in life have been with a Mac... Or being intimate with someone while chill tunes flowed from iTunes. Or just having the damn sexy Mac hardware somewhere in the room...!!!!!! Goes well with Vellux blankets :D (Velour) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velour

[Celco]

No matter if Wu is wrong or right he's still a fuckwit. Wu one minute bag apple next minute buy...
I really do hope apple gains a foothold in the market I want someway of adding contacts / appointments to my ipod on the go. And my Treo has died.

No wu for u.

[Celco]

I'm not one of those people, but some of my happiest moments in life have been with a Mac... Or being intimate with someone while chill tunes flowed from iTunes. Or just having the damn sexy Mac hardware somewhere in the room...!!!!!! Goes well with Vellux blankets :D (Velour) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velour
sunil please tell me you didn't have your i sight on whilst you were being "intimate" :)

[sunilraman]

sunil please tell me you didn't have your i sight on whilst you were being "intimate" :)

ROFLMAO - This was back before iSights were built-in. And the "standalone" iSight was/is not that cool. So no worries - I'm not part of the webcam-girl/ youtube-exhibitionist generation :D

[sunilraman]

OMG new iMac WTF.

[melgross]

The point being, T9 is well established and many people can type on it as quickly as a qwerty keyboard (also well established).

And where do you get the idea texting is falling out of favour?

It's even going up in America...

"After lagging behind Western Europe and Japan for years, Americans are finally getting into the habit of SMS. 48.7 billion SMS messages were sent in the last six months of 2005, an increase of 50 per cent from 32.5bn in the first six months of last year. About 40 per cent of the more than 200m mobile phone subscribers in the US now use text mes..."

Source: http://www.mobileyouth.org/my_item/sms_traffic_rise_america

Not only have there been articles saying that texting is going out of favor with the younger set, the one that will grow into the next group of buyers, but I have some closer to home evidence.

My friends daughter, now 18 uses texting , though less than before. She says that her friends use it, but less as well.

My daughter, who is 15, says that she and her friends don't use it at all.

that coincides with what I've been reading over the past year, or more.

And while T9 is easy once you learn it, you do have to learn it.

Texting started in Japan amongst teenagers because, at least there, texting was cheaper than voice calls. That's not so anymore. At least, not here in the US. Some companies even charge extra for it. If parents won't pay for it, it won't be used. and if students can't afford to pay for it themselves, they won't get it. Adults almost never use it. so it is mostly confined to the young, and some adults in their early twenties. It seems that as people get older, their interest in texting diminishes as well.

So, it's less popular as one goes down in age from the late teens, and also is less popular as people get older.

It's a narrow demographic, that seems to be getting narrower as time goes on.

It does have a use, but not a big one.

I think that most of its use is faddish, and will disappear, mostly, but not go away completely.

[melgross]

Apparently Palm Treo's are now allowed back in to Europe.

See http://www.vodafonebusinessshop.co.uk/index.cfm?fuseaction=Phones.productdetails&menuactive=1&mnuid=2&sbmid=2.1&prodid=2869

Rumoured to be the Treo 750 with Windows Mobile.

Available Sept 12th

Previously they were banned due to containing dangerous substances banned in Europe.

It's probably the new Treo 700wx, which is the old Treo 70x, but with 60MB user memory.

More of the same Windows junk. Here's one typical review.

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1895,2009941,00.asp

[aegisdesign]

It's a narrow demographic, that seems to be getting narrower as time goes on.


If that's the case then that narrow demographic is now using it more and more than ever before as text messages have gone up 50% over last year in the USA.

Here in the UK, my survey amongst our 10-11 year olds and their friends would differ radically with the USA. They spend about £5 a month (and no more as that's all the credit we give them) on text and rarely ever phone anyone. Beaming each other mp3s and pictures seems to be the latest craze. Thankfully that's free.

[Ireland]

Take your pick?


http://static.flickr.com/84/236494938_aff35631c5_o.jpg.....http://static.flickr.com/93/236496612_ebb11c983d_o.jpg


http://static.flickr.com/88/236497733_e1cb8acf0d_o.jpg :D

[aegisdesign]

It's probably the new Treo 700wx, which is the old Treo 70x, but with 60MB user memory.

More of the same Windows junk. Here's one typical review.

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1895,2009941,00.asp

No, it's a 750. The 700wx is banned in Europe.

[addabox]

And if so, that isn't a 'smartphone'.

If it's just a music phone, then it's up against phones that cost £30 on Pay-as-you-go contracts. Pretty much all ultra-low end phones will play mp3s now.

But Apple isn't obliged to respect artificial marketing categories like "smart phone" vs. "just a music phone". They can design something that avoids the "must do everything" mania of the consumer electronics industry while improving the overall experience with a great interface and whatever "Apple " touches they've come up with.

I don't see iPod sales and iTMS use tumbling, so despite the appeal of whatever music playing phones are already on the market, apparently the iPod/iTMS system still fits the bill to a lot of people.

I can't see why an iPod that acted as a phone would change that.

I still say looking at this as phone that also plays music which has to compete feature for feature with other phones that play music gets it backwards.

It's an iPod with a killer new feature. Assuming the premium over a standard iPod isn't too steep, the market so far suggests that's slam dunk.

[melgross]

No, it's a 750. The 700wx is banned in Europe.

What's the difference? The numbers are often different in different markets.

Are you sure it's the wx that is banned, and not the older w model? The wx just came out. It isn't even available in most places yet. Maybe not anywhere.

[sunilraman]

Nice mock-up roundup Ireland :thumbs up:

[aegisdesign]

What's the difference? The numbers are often different in different markets.

Are you sure it's the wx that is banned, and not the older w model? The wx just came out. It isn't even available in most places yet. Maybe not anywhere.


Treo 750 - http://www.engadget.com/2006/08/30/new-treo-750-photos-du-jour/

Sorry, I was wrong about the 700 being banned. The 650 is banned under European Reduction of Hazardous Substances (RoHS) legislation. The 700 doesn't work in Europe at all anyway. The 650 was their only phone in Europe. I thought they'd moved on to the 700 by now.

They should do better with the 750 as they've got rid of the stupid stub aerial. It made the 650 look like something out of the 90s.

[sunilraman]

I don't get Treos, PocketPC and Windows Mobile. I'm just not a PDA/smartphone kinda guy. I had a Dell Axim in 2004 for a while with Wifi built in, it was, bleahh.. Maybe Apple can do something about phone/ pda/ 3g/ iPod/ etc.................................... Hmm

[aegisdesign]

But Apple isn't obliged to respect artificial marketing categories like "smart phone" vs. "just a music phone". They can design something that avoids the "must do everything" mania of the consumer electronics industry while improving the overall experience with a great interface and whatever "Apple " touches they've come up with.

They sure aren't obliged and that's why they often come up with something good. However, they've the Walkman phones to beat for music phones and those use the same OS as the higher up smartphones, use the same apps and same Walkman music application which has been coming on in leaps and bounds since the first phones Sony branded Walkman.

There's room for a range of iPod phones perhaps. I really hope they do both a music centered phone and a smart phone. I could really care less about music on my phone but I do need a web browser, email and good texting.

Currently on my p910i, I've also got GPS (entire map of Europe) and various geek tools like an ssh terminal that I'd really rather not be without but I can see how that's not essential for everyone. :)

I've also got about a gigabyte of music and almost all the old Lucasarts SCUMM games for when I have time to kill. That's not often.

I don't see iPod sales and iTMS use tumbling, so despite the appeal of whatever music playing phones are already on the market, apparently the iPod/iTMS system still fits the bill to a lot of people.

It's usage is distorted by America where you've crap phones and crap phone companies. Elsewhere in the world, particularly the far east, more songs are sold via mobile phone than by the iPod/ITMS.


I can't see why an iPod that acted as a phone would change that.

I still say looking at this as phone that also plays music which has to compete feature for feature with other phones that play music gets it backwards.

It's an iPod with a killer new feature. Assuming the premium over a standard iPod isn't too steep, the market so far suggests that's slam dunk.

But most people already have a phone. It's far from a slam dunk. If all an iPod phone does is basic phone stuff AND be an iPod then I'll pass. Got that already plus lots more even if it's not shiny/scratchy white and impossibly thin.

[Joe_the_dragon]

a if apple come out with a phone with I-tunes that data better be free or that $0.99 song may come with a $5+ data bill.

[melgross]

Treo 750 - http://www.engadget.com/2006/08/30/new-treo-750-photos-du-jour/

Sorry, I was wrong about the 700 being banned. The 650 is banned under European Reduction of Hazardous Substances (RoHS) legislation. The 700 doesn't work in Europe at all anyway. The 650 was their only phone in Europe. I thought they'd moved on to the 700 by now.

They should do better with the 750 as they've got rid of the stupid stub aerial. It made the 650 look like something out of the 90s.

It's interesting that while consumers prefer no external antenna, studies have shown that the best reception is had for phones with external pull-out antenna's, the next best is with stubs, and the worst is with internal antenna's.

But this is one place where convenience and style really do win.

[melgross]

It's usage is distorted by America where you've crap phones and crap phone companies. Elsewhere in the world, particularly the far east, more songs are sold via mobile phone than by the iPod/ITMS.



I'd like to see some evidence of that. Ring tones that are part of songs, etc., yes. But I haven't read anything about phone companies having sold over a billion actual songs over their phone networks.

And I don't agree about crap phones and xompanies. I can't stand most European phones. Nokia doesn't impress me at all, and neither does does their smartphones, nor any Symbian phones.

[ryukyu]

Looks to be much more than most suspect.
http://www.macsimumnews.com/index.php/archive/apple_files_patent_for_handheld_device_with_multip le_touch_sensing_devices/

[aegisdesign]

It's interesting that while consumers prefer no external antenna, studies have shown that the best reception is had for phones with external pull-out antenna's, the next best is with stubs, and the worst is with internal antenna's.

But this is one place where convenience and style really do win.

Not really been a problem in Europe though since the Analogue to Digital switch in about 1995. We've a much more densely packed population. I can see three phone masts from here for instance and I'm out in the sticks up in the the Pennine hills. I've mountiain biked in much of the country and rarely do you lose a signal.

I'd like to see some evidence of that. Ring tones that are part of songs, etc., yes. But I haven't read anything about phone companies having sold over a billion actual songs over their phone networks.

In the UK alone, songs sold via mobile phone accounted for 7% of all chart eligible sales in March. That's about 70,000 a week and it doesn't include ringtones. It's estimated it'll reach 20% of all sales by the end of the year.

See http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/4854740.stm

iTunes accounts for about 50% of the charts. Allofmp3, Napster, eMusic, HMV the rest.

And I don't agree about crap phones and xompanies.

You don't agree that Verizon disabling bluetooth or phone companies having systems that don't interoperate is crap? You don't agree that Moto have some of the worst phone interfaces in the business? You don't agree that you're months behind in even getting US made phones on your networks compared to Europe?

I can't stand most European phones. Nokia doesn't impress me at all, and neither does does their smartphones, nor any Symbian phones.

Can't say I do either. Nokia sell more than anybody and they suck. SE's UIQ is much better than Nokia's S60 but it's still not exactly cutting edge. Nokia lost it shortly after the 6110. UIQ 3 is quite a leap over 2 though.

I don't think ANY of the current smart phone OSs is that hot to use which is why I'm hoping Apple does something worthwhile in that arena. Symbian can adopt different personalities so Apple can relatively easily add their touch onto a solid base OS that has very light hardware requirements by comparison to Windows, Palm and *nix. It would get them a host of 3rd party developers quickly too.

[melgross]

Not really been a problem in Europe though since the Analogue to Digital switch in about 1995. We've a much more densely packed population. I can see three phone masts from here for instance and I'm out in the sticks up in the the Pennine hills. I've mountiain biked in much of the country and rarely do you lose a signal.



In the UK alone, songs sold via mobile phone accounted for 7% of all chart eligible sales in March. That's about 70,000 a week and it doesn't include ringtones. It's estimated it'll reach 20% of all sales by the end of the year.

See http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/4854740.stm

iTunes accounts for about 50% of the charts. Allofmp3, Napster, eMusic, HMV the rest.



You don't agree that Verizon disabling bluetooth or phone companies having systems that don't interoperate is crap? You don't agree that Moto have some of the worst phone interfaces in the business? You don't agree that you're months behind in even getting US made phones on your networks compared to Europe?



Can't say I do either. Nokia sell more than anybody and they suck. SE's UIQ is much better than Nokia's S60 but it's still not exactly cutting edge. Nokia lost it shortly after the 6110. UIQ 3 is quite a leap over 2 though.

I don't think ANY of the current smart phone OSs is that hot to use which is why I'm hoping Apple does something worthwhile in that arena. Symbian can adopt different personalities so Apple can relatively easily add their touch onto a solid base OS that has very light hardware requirements by comparison to Windows, Palm and *nix. It would get them a host of 3rd party developers quickly too.

I see that you backed off on the music sales picture somewhat. Phone sales of songs lags mightally behind internet sales, and will for a long time (meaning several years).

But While I don't find any company to be 100% consumer friendly, no matter where they are from, I simply don't find most of the problems you mention to be real problems. Most people simply don't care. The companies here will back down on a number of issues such at the lack of BT support, as Verison did, if there is a large enough part of the customer base that isn't happy about it.

I use Sprint, and I can use my 700p as a modem for a laptop, if I want. Consumers here are different from those in Eurpoe. We want, and demand different things, at times.

I, for one, don't care about most of these issues. Neither do most people I know. Generally, these days, now that you can keep your number when switching cell companies, the company you are switching to will pay the fee owed to the company you are leaving. The phone might work as well. If not, they will either give, or sell you a newer one. It's just not a big deal to most people, as people who care about what phone they have buy another one between every 12 to 18 months anyway. When we look to Europe, what you do there looks strange, and odd, and we ask why you do thangs that badly. you do the same thing when you look here.

It's a matter of perspective more than anything else.

You also still have a much larger number of much smaller markets, while we have one large one. The competition is fiercer there than here, and that's a reason for certain things being the way they are as well.

[aegisdesign]

I see that you backed off on the music sales picture somewhat. Phone sales of songs lags mightally behind internet sales, and will for a long time (meaning several years).


What? I quoted you figures for the UK as an example that it will grow from 7% to 20% THIS YEAR. That's nearly 200% growth in market share in a market that's exploding.

Want another one?

"In Japan, the most developed mobile music market, mobile sales reached US$211 million, representing 96% of all digital music sales, for the first nine months of the year."

Source: http://www.ifpi.org/site-content/press/20060119.html

They will converge as phone capabilities improve.


But While I don't find any company to be 100% consumer friendly, no matter where they are from, I simply don't find most of the problems you mention to be real problems. Most people simply don't care. The companies here will back down on a number of issues such at the lack of BT support, as Verison did, if there is a large enough part of the customer base that isn't happy about it.

I use Sprint, and I can use my 700p as a modem for a laptop, if I want. Consumers here are different from those in Eurpoe. We want, and demand different things, at times.

And you get them.... a decade later. I've been able to use my phone as a modem since my Ericsson GS18 in 96/97.

I've never heard of a a carrier disabling a feature and the talk on the net of 'Will Verizon/Cinqular/etc allow an iPhone?' is frankly puzzling to us Europeans. It's just not a question that would come up, ever.

Text messaging is a classic example where in the US you couldn't send a message to someone else on a different network and IIRC at one point people had to pay to receive messages?

No wonder it isn't popular.

I, for one, don't care about most of these issues. Neither do most people I know. Generally, these days, now that you can keep your number when switching cell companies, the company you are switching to will pay the fee owed to the company you are leaving. The phone might work as well.

This never comes up in Europe. You get a PAC code from your phone company, pass that to your new phone company and that's it. Costs nothing, same phone, same number, takes a couple of hours.

If not, they will either give, or sell you a newer one. It's just not a big deal to most people, as people who care about what phone they have buy another one between every 12 to 18 months anyway. When we look to Europe, what you do there looks strange, and odd, and we ask why you do thangs that badly. you do the same thing when you look here.

What do you think we do badly/strangely?


It's a matter of perspective more than anything else.

You also still have a much larger number of much smaller markets, while we have one large one. The competition is fiercer there than here, and that's a reason for certain things being the way they are as well.

Not really. Europe has been one market for quite a long time, unless you're Apple or the music industry who seem happy to ignore EC rules.

On the phone front, the whole of Europe uses one phone standard so a phone bought in Italy will work with a Portuguese carrier with an Irish SIM card accessing a French music sales company.

[peharri]

(The audience listens to some kind of easy-listening pop music, the lights dim, and, to great applause, The Steve walks on stage, he waits for the applause to die down.)

Hi, hi, yes, hello, and thanks for joining us. It's been another great year for Apple. In January, we released our first Intel based Macs, and now, of course, all of our Macs are based on Intel chips, and they're just flying off the shelves. You've all seen the iPod nano, it's now the number one selling iPod in the world

(Massive applause)

...and we've upgraded iTunes with movies and stuff too. Now, I'd like to talk about a brand new product. I'm really excited by it. It's an Apple cellphone. Say hello to the iPhone

(Huge applause. Whoops from audience. Excitement increases as pictures of elegant phone appear on screen. Steve pulls one from his pocket. It's small. It's beautiful.)

Now, we asked our engineers to combine the best of the iPod with some amazing cellular technology. We're producing two versions, a GSM one, and a Verizon/Sprint version. And we're going to sell it directly to anyone who wants it for just $500, or you can buy a subsidized version from an operator that supports it.

(Applause. People mindlessly clap their hands)

Now, let me show you how it works. Let's flip this open, and... ok, notice the scrollwheel. You access all the functions of the phone using this, except on the Verizon model we have a special "VerizonWeb" button on the side. I'm demonstrating the T-Mobile version here though, so you can see the T-MobileWebPlus option, that's the first option, although on other carriers versions of the phone, you can just move that. Obviously if you buy the version from the Apple Store, it will not have the carrier-specific customizations.

(Audience looks puzzled)

Now, let me scroll down to the music, and... oh, yes this one has the "T-Mobile Multimedia Ringtones And Fun! " as the first option but you can scroll down to the playlists. Note that that doesn't appear on the Cingular version, the Cingular version has "GET MORE MUSIC!!!" as the second option on the main menu.

(Audience is getting somewhat restless)

Ok, this is my personal phone, so it has a bit of my music on it

(Steve scrolls through several dozen "REM" playlists, finally settling on "U2's greatest hits")

Ok, and a click on the middle button, and it's playing music. The phone plays through a normal headset or a bluetooth headset.

Well, I'm sure you'll agree it's a great product. We're expecting to replace our utter domination of the MP3 player market with at least a 3-5% share of the cellphone network by 2010. Woo. Yeah.

(Audience claps politely)

Ok, well, on to our next product. I'd like to introduce the WinMac. It's a Mac, but we sell it with Windows instead of Mac OS X. We're actually dropping our entire line of Mac OS X running machines in favour of the new WinMac, and BookWinMac.

(Audience is looking very puzzled at this point)

We decided to go for a classic Boxy Beige design. And we're selling one desktop, and one laptop. We think this'll replace our 100% share of the Mac compatible market with... at least 1% of the PC market.

(Audience begins to throw tomatoes)

Now, er, stop that! Stop. I have more products. Hey. Stop. Ok. Now, as you know, we started putting TV shows on our iTunes Music Store a few months ago, and it's been a great success. But we at Apple felt that we could be doing more. TV shows traditionally have lacked style and elegance. So we decided to come up with a series of great reality shows instead.

Now, of course it does mean that none of the major, or minor, or any actually, TV networks want to have anything to do with us any more given we're competing with them, but I think you'll agree that this clip of "The Last One Left" will convince you we've made the right decision.

(Lights dim further, and a clip from a reality show is shown on TV.)

(Audience fails to clap)

Ok, well, erm, I thought that'd go over better. Also we've started making our own music for the iTunes Music Store, which is really great. Me and Phil came up with some great stuff in the garage the other day. Unfortunately most of the major music publishers pulled out of iTunes when we told them we'd be selling our own music as well as their's, but, like, it's good music. We've done a whole bunch of cover versions of my favourate REM tunes.

(Audience begins booing. More tomatoes are thrown)

Well, anyway, thanks for coming

(The Steve runs off the stage.)

[melgross]

What? I quoted you figures for the UK as an example that it will grow from 7% to 20% THIS YEAR. That's nearly 200% growth in market share in a market that's exploding.

I said that you changed, because your first statement was that in the rest of the world more songs are sold through phones than through the iPod/iTunes combo, which is not true for most of the world.


Want another one?

"In Japan, the most developed mobile music market, mobile sales reached US$211 million, representing 96% of all digital music sales, for the first nine months of the year."

Source: http://www.ifpi.org/site-content/press/20060119.html

I agree about Japan. But it's been a short time for Apple and iTunes, and Apple's sales have jumped as well. So have iPod sales, so we'll just have to see what happens there. But, remenber that the number is from 2005, before iTunes really got off the ground. I'd like to know the numbers at the end of 2006. I'm sure it's pretty different.

But that same report shows that 40% of the digital song revenue is from mobile phones—with MOST of that being song ring tones, not real song buying. So that doesn't really count.


They will converge as phone capabilities improve.

Of course they will. That's why Apple has to do something that is better than what the phone companies are doing in that area, which is not much.


And you get them.... a decade later. I've been able to use my phone as a modem since my Ericsson GS18 in 96/97.

As I've said, they are different markets. Most people here haven't been interested in this feature until recently, so now they are being accommodated.

[quiote]
I've never heard of a a carrier disabling a feature and the talk on the net of 'Will Verizon/Cinqular/etc allow an iPhone?' is frankly puzzling to us Europeans. It's just not a question that would come up, ever.

I'm sure that question will come up. European Governments are very protective of their home grown corporations. You can see it in the merger agreements that have been stopped, particularly when American companies are the principal factor. Same thing is true for products. I've seen that over the years as well.

Do you really think that the French would have put that law through if it was a French company that was involved, rather thas Apple? I doubt it very much.

[quote]
Text messaging is a classic example where in the US you couldn't send a message to someone else on a different network and IIRC at one point people had to pay to receive messages?

No wonder it isn't popular.

But, cell calls were cheaper here than elsewhere for a long time, especially than those in Japan where calls were very expensive until reletively recently. That's why they came out with texting in the first place. It uses less network bandwidth, so it was a less expensive alternative to calls. No one here needed that, so it wasn't offered. Only when the Japanese craze started here amongst kids did texting gain interest a few years ago. The networks had to add it on as an extra servive that they weren't set-up to offer, so some of them (not all) charge extra. But those charges are disappearing, ironically, just as the interest in the service is waning.


This never comes up in Europe. You get a PAC code from your phone company, pass that to your new phone company and that's it. Costs nothing, same phone, same number, takes a couple of hours.

It hardly matters anymore, though it was a pisser when it did. All of that is, or has, changed. Most people here would rather get a new phone anyway than change a card on an old phone.



What do you think we do badly/strangely?

Well, that's a whole 'nother conversation.


Not really. Europe has been one market for quite a long time, unless you're Apple or the music industry who seem happy to ignore EC rules.

On the phone front, the whole of Europe uses one phone standard so a phone bought in Italy will work with a Portuguese carrier with an Irish SIM card accessing a French music sales company.

By different markets, I mean the whole language, cultural, political situation that makes it so difficult to get licensing for almost any business. The phone companies have one technical standard, but everything else is broken down into different pricing markets, etc. You can't buy some items in one country at the same equivalent price in another, etc. Auto buying is a mess, etc.

I had some German engineers working on a major machine installation for me. They were telling me that when they come to the US, they buy as much as they can, and send it back, because pricing is so much less here, because of VAT and local laws as to how much something is allowed to sell for as opposed to the same item in another country.

[melgross]

This is as good a place as any to post this.

http://www.macnn.com/blogs/?p=98

[SpamSandwich]

This is as good a place as any to post this.

http://www.macnn.com/blogs/?p=98

Yeah, I saw that. Could point the way to multi-functional iPod that changes screens and becomes iPod for music and video, iPhone, and an iTV remote control. When you aren't constrained by the limitations of physical keys, your Swiss Army knife can get a whole lot bigger. :lol:

[melgross]

Yeah, I saw that. Could point the way to multi-functional iPod that changes screens and becomes iPod for music and video, iPhone, and an iTV remote control. When you aren't constrained by the limitations of physical keys, your Swiss Army knife can get a whole lot bigger. :lol:

It seems to lead to the possibility of quite a few things. I'm not sure exactly what...

[sunilraman]

Looks to be much more than most suspect.
http://www.macsimumnews.com/index.php/archive/apple_files_patent_for_handheld_device_with_multip le_touch_sensing_devices/

Heh. First there were rumours of "no touch". Now it's "multi-touch". Next it's "super-multi-feelgood-ohyeah-touch". :lol:

[melgross]

Heh. First there were rumours of "no touch". Now it's "multi-touch". Next it's "super-multi-feelgood-ohyeah-touch". :lol:

Just be careful where you go with that. You could get arrested.

By the way. how come you're so skinny?

[sunilraman]

Yeah, I saw that. Could point the way to multi-functional iPod that changes screens and becomes iPod for music and video, iPhone, and an iTV remote control. When you aren't constrained by the limitations of physical keys, your Swiss Army knife can get a whole lot bigger. :lol:

Introducing... the iKnifePod.
Cue bad steak-knives infomercial.

Host (Phil Schiller): [Rocks out to some adult contemporary while cutting an aluminium can in half to audience applause]
Phil: "Let's see what the audience thinks. Yes, ma'am, you with the crochet blouse..."
Audience member #12: "Yeah wow, looks great, now I can cut my meat AND listen to the latest hip tunes all at once..."

Phil: "That's right, it's also a great way to get your lazy teenagers to learn to cook for themselves..."

[sunilraman]

I have no idea WTF a crochet blouse is.

[sunilraman]

By the way. how come you're so skinny?

Huh? I'm 72kg (convert to pounds yourself..!) and 5'8". You must be looking at some slanderous paparazzi shots of me while I was on detox/ holiday with a couple of hookers :D

[melgross]

Huh? I'm 72kg (convert to pounds yourself..!) and 5'8". You must be looking at some slanderous paparazzi shots of me while I was on detox/ holiday with a couple of hookers :D

Look at post #110.

I have no comment about your hookers though. At least none that I should post.

[sunilraman]

Look at post #110...

I still don't get it :???:

[melgross]

I still don't get it :???:

You were away too long. 8)

Isn't there a difference in the width of your info column? All the rest are the usual width, but yours is skinny.

[sunilraman]

You were away too long. 8)
Isn't there a difference in the width of your info column? All the rest are the usual width, but yours is skinny.

Wow weird. I can't see it, resizing my browser in Firefox in various ways, here at 1024x768. Ah, at least it makes me stand out (even more) YEAHH :D :lol:

[melgross]

Wow weird. I can't see it, resizing my browser in Firefox in various ways, here at 1024x768. Ah, at least it makes me stand out (even more) YEAHH :D :lol:

I knew you would be happy.

[sunilraman]

It's not the size of your post count, it's how you (ab)use it. :D

[aegisdesign]

I said that you changed, because your first statement was that in the rest of the world more songs are sold through phones than through the iPod/iTunes combo, which is not true for most of the world.

But that's not what I actually wrote.

I wrote "Elsewhere in the world, particularly the far east, more songs are sold via mobile phone than by the iPod/ITMS."

Elsewhere != 'rest of the world'

There's plenty of countries where iTunes doesn't exist.


I'm sure that question will come up. European Governments are very protective of their home grown corporations. You can see it in the merger agreements that have been stopped, particularly when American companies are the principal factor. Same thing is true for products. I've seen that over the years as well.

Do you really think that the French would have put that law through if it was a French company that was involved, rather thas Apple? I doubt it very much.

That's just the French and possibly the Italians they seem to have unique ways of interpreting EC directives that they can bend to their own protectionist ends. Elsewhere you'll find most countries are a lot more cooperative with fellow member nations. Some, like the UK also roll over on our back to America, China and Japan even if it's not in our interest.


But, cell calls were cheaper here than elsewhere for a long time, especially than those in Japan where calls were very expensive until reletively recently. That's why they came out with texting in the first place. It uses less network bandwidth, so it was a less expensive alternative to calls. No one here needed that, so it wasn't offered. Only when the Japanese craze started here amongst kids did texting gain interest a few years ago. The networks had to add it on as an extra servive that they weren't set-up to offer, so some of them (not all) charge extra. But those charges are disappearing, ironically, just as the interest in the service is waning.

In Europe it's never been the case that calls were more expensive than texting. Calls are typically 20-30p a minute, Text's are 10-12p but you almost always get free minutes and free texts and you can say a lot in a minute. We just like texting. There's situations where you can't use a voice call that texting wins out in. I've 1000 free minutes a month on my phone and 400 text free plus periods where calls are entirely free regardless. I still send around 200-300 texts a month. My servers send me at least 2 a day. My Bank sends me 1 a day per account. Every TV news program that allows comment has a semi permanent 'Text your news to 811088' or whatever on the bottom of it. I pay my bills via Text messages. Some people even VOTE via text message.

Get it yet? Texting isn't going away.



Well, that's a whole 'nother conversation.


Not really, this is a thread about phones yes? Seems this is the conversation?

My contention being that if your attitude to what we do in Europe is prevalent in Apple's design decisions then an Apple phone will fly off the shelves like a lead turd in Europe.


By different markets, I mean the whole language, cultural, political situation that makes it so difficult to get licensing for almost any business. The phone companies have one technical standard, but everything else is broken down into different pricing markets, etc. You can't buy some items in one country at the same equivalent price in another, etc. Auto buying is a mess, etc.


Individual member states can charge what they want but there are laws which state they have to offer their products to any EC resident at the same prices. That's why at one point us Brits used to buy our cars from Holland as they had cheaper taxes at the time. Each member state has it's own tax laws - they aren't homogenised across the whole of the EC.


I had some German engineers working on a major machine installation for me. They were telling me that when they come to the US, they buy as much as they can, and send it back, because pricing is so much less here, because of VAT and local laws as to how much something is allowed to sell for as opposed to the same item in another country.

There are no laws in Germany dictating prices. That's illegal. As I said there are laws specifically in place that STOP them doing that. They have higher taxes, that's all. In the USA you have lower taxes, less social provision and higher deficits.

[melgross]

But that's not what I actually wrote.

I wrote "Elsewhere in the world, particularly the far east, more songs are sold via mobile phone than by the iPod/ITMS."

Elsewhere != 'rest of the world'

There's plenty of countries where iTunes doesn't exist.




That's just the French and possibly the Italians they seem to have unique ways of interpreting EC directives that they can bend to their own protectionist ends. Elsewhere you'll find most countries are a lot more cooperative with fellow member nations. Some, like the UK also roll over on our back to America, China and Japan even if it's not in our interest.




In Europe it's never been the case that calls were more expensive than texting. Calls are typically 20-30p a minute, Text's are 10-12p but you almost always get free minutes and free texts and you can say a lot in a minute. We just like texting. There's situations where you can't use a voice call that texting wins out in. I've 1000 free minutes a month on my phone and 400 text free plus periods where calls are entirely free regardless. I still send around 200-300 texts a month. My servers send me at least 2 a day. My Bank sends me 1 a day per account. Every TV news program that allows comment has a semi permanent 'Text your news to 811088' or whatever on the bottom of it. I pay my bills via Text messages. Some people even VOTE via text message.

Get it yet? Texting isn't going away.




Not really, this is a thread about phones yes? Seems this is the conversation?

My contention being that if your attitude to what we do in Europe is prevalent in Apple's design decisions then an Apple phone will fly off the shelves like a lead turd in Europe.



Individual member states can charge what they want but there are laws which state they have to offer their products to any EC resident at the same prices. That's why at one point us Brits used to buy our cars from Holland as they had cheaper taxes at the time. Each member state has it's own tax laws - they aren't homogenised across the whole of the EC.



There are no laws in Germany dictating prices. That's illegal. As I said there are laws specifically in place that STOP them doing that. They have higher taxes, that's all. In the USA you have lower taxes, less social provision and higher deficits.

Our posts here are getting to be a bit long for me., so I'm going to reply in one area, in an abbreviated form.

We were talking about songs sold in the US, so elsewhere, as you stated it, certainly looked to mean everywhere else, as you have noticed here in this post that iTunes is only available in certain areas of the world. Where iTunes is not available, it doesn't count, because we can't say anything about what would happen if iTunes did appear, except to relate it to what has happened elsewhere when iTunes did appear. In those places, iTunes continues to gather a greater percentage of songs sold as time goes on. And again, remember that "songs" in the case of the cell companies, continues to include snippits used for ringtones, which accounts for the vast majority of so-called song downloads through those phone companies, and are not really songs as we mean it to be.

France does what it does, but we have the Scandinavians also trying to do absurd things as well here, so who knows?

i;m not sure what you are trying to say about texting. You disagree, saying that texting is NOT less expensive, then you give figures to show that it is a LOT less expensive.

You may love texting, but despite your examples, it doesn't mean that it may not go away. You would have to show examples of user age groups. All I can say is that it is losing popularity here, and where it started, in Japan, amongst younger users who will make up the next group of subscribers. I'd be curious to see what is happening in Eastern Europe, and other areas of the far East.

There is no reason why Apple should even be interested in providing a phone for Europe. I certainly don't see any good reasons why. Maybe in the future, after they are established here. But, a worldwide introduction just seems to be too complex an affair when starting out in an industry that they have no experience with. If they do come out with a virtual network here, they could easily be raking in 3 to 5 billion a year, without even looking at Europe.

Maybe, living in England, you don't pay attention to it, but it doesn't work quite the way you think it does. As you are not part of the Euro currency group, you are not required to pay attention to their rules. But, from what I've read in the financial journals, pricing in the Eurozone must correspond to the concept of economic pricing. That is, prices for an item in Spain will be less than they are in Italy, which will, in turn, be less than the price in France, and in France, less than in Germany.

This has nothing to do with individual laws in Germany, or anywhere else. It is a regulation from Brussels.

As I said, you are not required to be part of that, because you are not part of the Eurozone—yet.

And, yes, the tax laws are another pain, and does break up the market. That's why there have been scandles with people, and companies trying to by bug ticket items in countries that charge less, and then smuggling them back to France and Germany. Auto's are the big problem there.

[monkeyastronaut]

It's the usual case of something being obvious only AFTER someone else says it.

of course not mel. with the wu it's different. the wuman rehashes all the stuff macgeeks dream and bleed about in rumor forums and then he predicts 100 different things in his "special reports". big analysis. come on. apple cell phone. how many years have we been talking about that. of course it might be ready for production. it's been years. what else could it be? either that or it doesn't exist. either way he wins. if it doesn't come out, he'll just make another research note saying that production problems came up and that it was delayed.

[SpamSandwich]

of course not mel. with the wu it's different. the wuman rehashes all the stuff macgeeks dream and bleed about in rumor forums and then he predicts 100 different things in his "special reports". big analysis. come on. apple cell phone. how many years have we been talking about that. of course it might be ready for production. it's been years. what else could it be? either that or it doesn't exist. either way he wins. if it doesn't come out, he'll just make another research note saying that production problems came up and that it was delayed.

Makes me wonder how much Wu is wurth... er, worth. :lol:

[aegisdesign]

We were talking about songs sold in the US, so elsewhere, as you stated it, certainly looked to mean everywhere else,

No. Elsewhere as in other countries, not elsewhere as in 'everywhere else added up in total'.

I've quoted you two sets of figures now for individual countries, not 'everywhere else other than the US'.

as you have noticed here in this post that iTunes is only available in certain areas of the world. Where iTunes is not available, it doesn't count, because we can't say anything about what would happen if iTunes did appear, except to relate it to what has happened elsewhere when iTunes did appear.

That is a strawman.

If Apple wants to sell phones then they need to do it regardless of the country having an iTunes store. Most people don't buy iPods to buy songs from an iTunes store.


In those places, iTunes continues to gather a greater percentage of songs sold as time goes on. And again, remember that "songs" in the case of the cell companies, continues to include snippits used for ringtones, which accounts for the vast majority of so-called song downloads through those phone companies, and are not really songs as we mean it to be.

The figures I quoted for the UK show songs sold through mobile phones increasing market share from 7% to 20% of the charts by the end of this year. They are not ringtones. Ringtones are not eligible for the charts. iTunes accounts for about 50% of the market here. It will continue to fall in market share.

France does what it does, but we have the Scandinavians also trying to do absurd things as well here, so who knows?

I imagine the whole of Europe will follow at some point. The problem is the technology is moving quicker than the legislators. It's not so absurd an idea. DRM is counter consumer and Europe has much stronger laws about protecting the consumer than America. Apple (and Microsofts) ability to change the rules of their DRM after purchase is against the law in some Scandinavian countries and also in Denmark. It's probably illegal in others too.

i;m not sure what you are trying to say about texting. You disagree, saying that texting is NOT less expensive, then you give figures to show that it is a LOT less expensive.

No I did not. I said Price of text = 10p. Price of 1 minute voice = 20-30p. You get a lot more for 20-30p. 160 characters v 1 minute of voice. It's irrelevant though, they're used differently and I gave you lots of examples why they are used instead of voice. Price isn't important.

Try this CNN article - http://money.cnn.com/magazines/business2/business2_archive/2006/08/01/8382255/index.htm

"Why we don't get the (text) message"

You may love texting, but despite your examples, it doesn't mean that it may not go away. You would have to show examples of user age groups. All I can say is that it is losing popularity here, and where it started, in Japan, amongst younger users who will make up the next group of subscribers. I'd be curious to see what is happening in Eastern Europe, and other areas of the far East.

Ugh. Again - I quoted American stats from 'MobileYouth' showing texting increasing over 50% but you say it's losing popularity?

How about - http://www.analysys.com/default_acl.asp?Mode=article&iLeftArticle=2002&m=&n= which says SMS use will grow from 4.8% to 10% of phone company revenue between 2005-2010 in the USA.

In Japan, text messaging is proving more popular than voice. Revenue is taking a tumble because of it - http://www.mobilemonday.net/mm/story.php?story_id=4750

Data services in Japan are up 39% over last year - http://aorta.wordpress.com/2006/07/21/japan-continues-solid-growth-in-mobile-data/


There is no reason why Apple should even be interested in providing a phone for Europe. I certainly don't see any good reasons why.

No, you wouldn't see a future in a market which has ONE phone standard and is bigger than the USA.

Last Quarter 41.4 million phones were sold in Western Europe. 42.5 million to Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa. 38.6 million were sold in the USA/Canada of which about half don't work in Europe at all so depending on which standard Apple picks it will have half the market in the USA it would have in Western Europe alone.

http://www.cellular-news.com/story/19008.php

Maybe in the future, after they are established here. But, a worldwide introduction just seems to be too complex an affair when starting out in an industry that they have no experience with.

A European release would be a load easier than a domestic US release as they've only one technology to contend with and a much greater acceptance of technology in phones than the USA.

If they do come out with a virtual network here, they could easily be raking in 3 to 5 billion a year, without even looking at Europe.

Unlikely. Virgin Mobile only managed £276 million in revenue in the UK for the first half of this year. I couldn't find USA numbers. Yet you reckon Apple can do 5 billion in the USA alone, without all the European data lead services that are unpopular in the US, with a limited number of phones and no experience?

Maybe, living in England, you don't pay attention to it, but it doesn't work quite the way you think it does. As you are not part of the Euro currency group, you are not required to pay attention to their rules.

Yes we are. I've been Director of two companies here and wrote software specifically for European Monetary Union for the Bank of England. I pay attention. You have to as even before the Euro there were rules as to selling to other EC members.

But, from what I've read in the financial journals, pricing in the Eurozone must correspond to the concept of economic pricing. That is, prices for an item in Spain will be less than they are in Italy, which will, in turn, be less than the price in France, and in France, less than in Germany.

This has nothing to do with individual laws in Germany, or anywhere else. It is a regulation from Brussels.

No. That's not right. The Euro-zone works through tieing together effective exchange rates between it's members. The EU central bank measures certain cost indicators such as labour costs and inflation for each member and levies fines on those that step outside the bands imposed. Each member state is allowed to price it's goods how it wants but the Euro restrictions tend to hold down massive deviations as the bands are relatively tight. Just because a pickle in Germany is €4, doesn't mean it has to be €4 in Spain. If it was the equivalent of €2 before the Euro they can still price it €2. The Euro zone works on macro economics, not micro.


As I said, you are not required to be part of that, because you are not part of the Eurozone—yet.


The UK isn't a member of the Euro-zone but we are a member of EMU, just not the last bit - the single currency. If as a company I want to sell to the rest of Europe then the first two stages of requirements in EMU still apply. I also have to provide prices in Euros.



And, yes, the tax laws are another pain, and does break up the market.


No, they don't. Taxes apply in the member state in which you purchase the goods. It's dead simple. If as a company you are VAT registered, you can claim back VAT from member states just as easily as your own through an agreement set out in the 90s. You provide the company you're buying from or selling to your registration number. They do their returns, I do mine and it's all worked out by the two governments.


That's why there have been scandles with people, and companies trying to by bug ticket items in countries that charge less, and then smuggling them back to France and Germany. Auto's are the big problem there.

No. It's perfectly legal to buy goods in any other member state. That was the whole point of European Monetary Union and the single market. It's not smuggling. Have you never been through a European airport terminal and wondered why there's two customs channels - one for European nationals and one for the rest? Guess why. That's right, so we can walk through customs without having to declare anything.

It's also why Apple is on dubious grounds with it's iTunes store which doesn't let me, for instance, buy from the German store.

[SpamSandwich]

The shape of things to come?...

http://www.engadget.com/2006/09/08/toshiba-shows-off-ds-e-book-concept/

[melgross]

of course not mel. with the wu it's different. the wuman rehashes all the stuff macgeeks dream and bleed about in rumor forums and then he predicts 100 different things in his "special reports". big analysis. come on. apple cell phone. how many years have we been talking about that. of course it might be ready for production. it's been years. what else could it be? either that or it doesn't exist. either way he wins. if it doesn't come out, he'll just make another research note saying that production problems came up and that it was delayed.

The difference though, is that we cover hundreds of topics, many veering from the sane. And that's all in fun. Sometimes some of us even say something that makes sense!

But there is a world of difference between saying what we wish to be true, and what is possible at that time. I was talking about Apple making a phone several years ago. So what? It means nothing. But these guys do the footwork. It isn't that they are predicting like we are, out of our hopes. They are saying what they think Apple is doing, not what they hope Apple is doing.

That's very different. They say what they do, because they have sources that tell them things that we have no reasonable way of finding out on our own. If a company that makes iPods for Apple starts to order large amounts of parts from several suppliers that are used in iPod -like devices, they can assume that the company is going to make iPod-like devices. This can be a couple of months before production begins. If they order large amounts of 4 and 8 GB flash chips, it can be assumed that Apple is making both a 4 and an 8 GB iPod-like device.

They base their reports on information like that. They usually get it right. But Apple may delay the introduction for reasons of their own, or even delay the manufacturing, if they change the design for some other reason. So they aren't always spot on.

But they aren't sitting in their chairs with their hands clasped behind their heads, and guessing. They have a tough job.

So, if what they say may coincide with what some of us say, it doesn't mean anything. Believe me, they don't scour the rumors sites looking for ideas.

Most people here, such as yourself, do know that, so I just wonder why all of the criticism.

[melgross]

No. Elsewhere as in other countries, not elsewhere as in 'everywhere else added up in total'.

I've quoted you two sets of figures now for individual countries, not 'everywhere else other than the US'.



That is a strawman.

If Apple wants to sell phones then they need to do it regardless of the country having an iTunes store. Most people don't buy iPods to buy songs from an iTunes store.




The figures I quoted for the UK show songs sold through mobile phones increasing market share from 7% to 20% of the charts by the end of this year. They are not ringtones. Ringtones are not eligible for the charts. iTunes accounts for about 50% of the market here. It will continue to fall in market share.



I imagine the whole of Europe will follow at some point. The problem is the technology is moving quicker than the legislators. It's not so absurd an idea. DRM is counter consumer and Europe has much stronger laws about protecting the consumer than America. Apple (and Microsofts) ability to change the rules of their DRM after purchase is against the law in some Scandinavian countries and also in Denmark. It's probably illegal in others too.



No I did not. I said Price of text = 10p. Price of 1 minute voice = 20-30p. You get a lot more for 20-30p. 160 characters v 1 minute of voice. It's irrelevant though, they're used differently and I gave you lots of examples why they are used instead of voice. Price isn't important.

Try this CNN article - http://money.cnn.com/magazines/business2/business2_archive/2006/08/01/8382255/index.htm

"Why we don't get the (text) message"



Ugh. Again - I quoted American stats from 'MobileYouth' showing texting increasing over 50% but you say it's losing popularity?

How about - http://www.analysys.com/default_acl.asp?Mode=article&iLeftArticle=2002&m=&n= which says SMS use will grow from 4.8% to 10% of phone company revenue between 2005-2010 in the USA.

In Japan, text messaging is proving more popular than voice. Revenue is taking a tumble because of it - http://www.mobilemonday.net/mm/story.php?story_id=4750

Data services in Japan are up 39% over last year - http://aorta.wordpress.com/2006/07/21/japan-continues-solid-growth-in-mobile-data/




No, you wouldn't see a future in a market which has ONE phone standard and is bigger than the USA.

Last Quarter 41.4 million phones were sold in Western Europe. 42.5 million to Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa. 38.6 million were sold in the USA/Canada of which about half don't work in Europe at all so depending on which standard Apple picks it will have half the market in the USA it would have in Western Europe alone.

http://www.cellular-news.com/story/19008.php



A European release would be a load easier than a domestic US release as they've only one technology to contend with and a much greater acceptance of technology in phones than the USA.



Unlikely. Virgin Mobile only managed £276 million in revenue in the UK for the first half of this year. I couldn't find USA numbers. Yet you reckon Apple can do 5 billion in the USA alone, without all the European data lead services that are unpopular in the US, with a limited number of phones and no experience?



Yes we are. I've been Director of two companies here and wrote software specifically for European Monetary Union for the Bank of England. I pay attention. You have to as even before the Euro there were rules as to selling to other EC members.



No. That's not right. The Euro-zone works through tieing together effective exchange rates between it's members. The EU central bank measures certain cost indicators such as labour costs and inflation for each member and levies fines on those that step outside the bands imposed. Each member state is allowed to price it's goods how it wants but the Euro restrictions tend to hold down massive deviations as the bands are relatively tight. Just because a pickle in Germany is €4, doesn't mean it has to be €4 in Spain. If it was the equivalent of €2 before the Euro they can still price it €2. The Euro zone works on macro economics, not micro.



The UK isn't a member of the Euro-zone but we are a member of EMU, just not the last bit - the single currency. If as a company I want to sell to the rest of Europe then the first two stages of requirements in EMU still apply. I also have to provide prices in Euros.




No, they don't. Taxes apply in the member state in which you purchase the goods. It's dead simple. If as a company you are VAT registered, you can claim back VAT from member states just as easily as your own through an agreement set out in the 90s. You provide the company you're buying from or selling to your registration number. They do their returns, I do mine and it's all worked out by the two governments.



No. It's perfectly legal to buy goods in any other member state. That was the whole point of European Monetary Union and the single market. It's not smuggling. Have you never been through a European airport terminal and wondered why there's two customs channels - one for European nationals and one for the rest? Guess why. That's right, so we can walk through customs without having to declare anything.

It's also why Apple is on dubious grounds with it's iTunes store which doesn't let me, for instance, buy from the German store.

I have no idea what you are trying to show me with those articles. None of them back up anything you have said. Some don't even directly address the issues. Information from 2004 is much too outdated to be of much use. A prediction made on that data must be suplimented by more recent information. Not every predicted trend has shown to be correct. And my own experience tells me that it won't be.

And, again, texting is much cheaper on most places than voice calls, even the articles show that. Price is the main reason why texting is so popular where it is popular.

Yes, I know that ou compared text messagw wit a minute voice rate. But, that's correct! And is shows why texting is cheaper. People who text spend less time doing it than tyalking on the phone. That's in addition to it being cheaper by itself. Per call.

and, yes, in Japan, customers have been resisting, feircely, 3G services that have been foisted upon them. Thewy don't want to spend the extra money. But, as they noted, texting revenue is falling too. In Japan it seems that that revenue is going lower while texting email is still popular. But, then again, it's much cheaper.

We also don't know just what they mean by "other" mobile content in the other article. Tv over cell is very popular in Japan, and they could mean that as well.

Insofar as sales in markets other than North America (including Canada, of course), Western Europe, and Japan go, it really isn't in the equation. As we know, and the last article points out, other markets are looking for low cost phones. Apple won't be addressing that. They will likely be looking to cherry pick the top of the market. Japan is a tough nut, but Apple could look there. The same thing is true of W Europe. I'm not saying that Apple will never go there, but it isn't correct to think that Apple can divert energy to more than one market at a time. It's more important to work the home market first. After that is established, they can move out.

The point About Virgin, which is doing pretty well over here, is that Apple won't have to deal with the various phone companies. Where the big companies have between 40 million to 70 million subscribers apiece here, Apple could gather from that large market, several million customers. Apple users will be a big source. iPod users will be a bigger source. I can see Apple getting a good 3 million subscribers after a couple of years. If they play their cards right, they could get more. At an average of $50 a month, that surely adds up.

They tying together of exchange rates with different economic indicators is just what I said, but with detail I didn't bother to add. This ends up with different pricing across the continent. Again, what I said. I don't understand why you disagree.

I understand that as a company, you would have to understand, and apply the Euro rules. We have to do that from here as well, when we sell into that market.

I'm afraid that the smuggling is true though. You aren't supposed to buy a Mercedes in Spain, for example, at those rates, and then bring it back into Germany.

I was speaking of the consumer. I realise that YOU understand.

Yes, I've been through the customs. I much prefer customs in England. They seem to be friendlier.

[monkeyastronaut]

The difference though, is that we cover hundreds of topics, many veering from the sane. And that's all in fun. Sometimes some of us even say something that makes sense!

But there is a world of difference between saying what we wish to be true, and what is possible at that time. I was talking about Apple making a phone several years ago. So what? It means nothing. But these guys do the footwork. It isn't that they are predicting like we are, out of our hopes. They are saying what they think Apple is doing, not what they hope Apple is doing.

That's very different. They say what they do, because they have sources that tell them things that we have no reasonable way of finding out on our own. If a company that makes iPods for Apple starts to order large amounts of parts from several suppliers that are used in iPod -like devices, they can assume that the company is going to make iPod-like devices. This can be a couple of months before production begins. If they order large amounts of 4 and 8 GB flash chips, it can be assumed that Apple is making both a 4 and an 8 GB iPod-like device.

They base their reports on information like that. They usually get it right. But Apple may delay the introduction for reasons of their own, or even delay the manufacturing, if they change the design for some other reason. So they aren't always spot on.

But they aren't sitting in their chairs with their hands clasped behind their heads, and guessing. They have a tough job.

So, if what they say may coincide with what some of us say, it doesn't mean anything. Believe me, they don't scour the rumors sites looking for ideas.

Most people here, such as yourself, do know that, so I just wonder why all of the criticism.

well, yes. i'm getting you. that makes a lot of sense.

maybe my criticism towards Wu comes because i just feel he repeats too much of the same stuff we read here all the time. so it makes me wonder about his sources. but of course, like you said, he probably has contacts in the industry and it just coincides with the hundreds of topics discussed here and elsewhere.

the guy just rubs me the wrong way because, i don't know, i guess part of me wants to hear disparate, new rumors. get the iphone out already and hear new stuff. i'm getting impatient apple has taken way too long to release this thing. :)

i bet it'd be very funny for Steve Jobs and Co. if we were all wrong, and the iphone was never in their plans, and would never see the light of day. :err:

[melgross]

well, yes. i'm getting you. that makes a lot of sense.

maybe my criticism towards Wu comes because i just feel he repeats too much of the same stuff we read here all the time. so it makes me wonder about his sources. but of course, like you said, he probably has contacts in the industry and it just coincides with the hundreds of topics discussed here and elsewhere.

the guy just rubs me the wrong way because, i don't know, i guess part of me wants to hear disparate, new rumors. get the iphone out already and hear new stuff. i'm getting impatient apple has taken way too long to release this thing. :)

i bet it'd be very funny for Steve Jobs and Co. if we were all wrong, and the iphone was never in their plans, and would never see the light of day. :err:

Apple, like most manufacturing companies has many projects they are looking at. That's called research. If word gets out that they are researching something, people assume it WILL be a product. But, even if it does move to the development end of the R&D acronim, it doesn't mean it will be produced. They may just be interested in what they could come up with IF they wanted to. That's why reports of what they are doing can get screwed up as well.

Just like these patents. They do the research, and patent a good idea. They MAY use it, or not.

Remember Asteroid?

[aegisdesign]

What a fuckwit you can be for the sake of it Melgross.

Absolutely everything you wrote in that last post was totally wrong. I spent a long time carefully researching those stats yet you just deny they are of significance because texting isn't popular with your daughter. Meh. I'm done. Stick your head up your arse and sing la-la-la if you want to.

Even Wu makes more sense than you do.

[Chucker]

Nyah nyah nyah.

[melgross]

What a fuckwit you can be for the sake of it Melgross.

Absolutely everything you wrote in that last post was totally wrong. I spent a long time carefully researching those stats yet you just deny they are of significance because texting isn't popular with your daughter. Meh. I'm done. Stick your head up your arse and sing la-la-la if you want to.

Even Wu makes more sense than you do.

I didn't think you could be so childish.

I'm sorry you spent so much time on them.

[sunilraman]

What a fuckwit you can be for the sake of it Melgross.

Absolutely everything you wrote in that last post was totally wrong. I spent a long time carefully researching those stats yet you just deny they are of significance because texting isn't popular with your daughter. Meh. I'm done. Stick your head up your arse and sing la-la-la if you want to.

Even Wu makes more sense than you do.

Ouch. Saying Wu makes more sense than Mel is a bigger insult than calling him a fuckwit :wow:

[melgross]

Ouch. Saying Wu makes more sense than Mel is a bigger insult than calling him a fuckwit :wow:

I'm not quite sure how to take that.:???:

[sunilraman]

I'm not quite sure how to take that.:???:

I'd take it as aegisdesign really hates your ass. :(

[SpamSandwich]

Someone's getting cranky ahead of the announcement...

[sunilraman]

Someone's getting cranky ahead of the announcement...

Yeah. Everyone's deeply emotionally involved with the Sep 12 deal. So much so nobody has the cahones to even put one countdown post in the Official Countdown thread, besides me :no: :lol:
http://forums.appleinsider.com/showthread.php?t=66454&goto=newpost

People are scared to get hyped up coz' they're afraid if it's dissapointing they'll crash.

I'm looking forward to a new iPod though because it's my birthday (20th Sep) soon and my brother has asked me what I want :D :D :D

[sunilraman]

There's 99.999% probability new iPods will be announced, so I am happy. I don't give a frack about movie downloads, iPhone, or iHome, AirMovies, or whatever else :devil:

[melgross]

I'd take it as aegisdesign really hates your ass. :(

Well, I don't hate his.

[addabox]

Well, I don't hate his.

Unilateral ass hatred? That could be....destabilizing.

[monkeyastronaut]

I'd take it as aegisdesign really hates your ass. :(

sunilraman, you are the funniest appleinsider member i read in this forums. LOL :lol:

[aegisdesign]

Well, I don't hate his.

I don't have an ass. I'm British.

[sunilraman]

sunilraman, you are the funniest appleinsider member i read in this forums. LOL :lol:

:D Well, I'm happy I have my fans. But there are the haters out there :( :lol:

[sunilraman]

TUAW: NO FRACKING iPhone peoples...!! http://www.tuaw.com/2006/09/11/apples-agenda-for-the-media-event/
Oh, and get this. TubePort. Told you AirMovies would have sounded way way better.

AND MELGROSS: Read the TUAW article especially the bit of how it connects to your standard def or HDTV...... Told you so... nah na na na na nah, na na na na nah nah.

My 854x480p guess may still be on the mark, but apparently there will be iPod rez and Higher Density rez. Makes sense. This offers a higher resolution than 854x480p (hopefully) while delivering something like 640x360 16:9 native widescreen on the new widescreen iPod video with virtual *no touch...heh* (touchscreen) scrollwheel. MMM... they better have their chemical-materials engineers in the bag with the ultra-scratch and greasy-fingerprint-resistant screens...!

MM... iPod Nano metal. Let's have a recap of what this might look like (images below):

http://i75.photobucket.com/albums/i293/sunilraman/ipod_nano_003.png

http://i75.photobucket.com/albums/i293/sunilraman/ipod_nano_000.jpg

http://i75.photobucket.com/albums/i293/sunilraman/ipod_nano_001.jpg

http://i75.photobucket.com/albums/i293/sunilraman/ipod_nano_002.jpg

[sunilraman]

Actually Melgross, apologies, the TUAW report on TubePort does not show composite- or s-video outputs. Hmmmmmm WTF

[sunilraman]

No iPod Phone, the iPod Widescreen on the right of this image is closest to what I think it will be.

I just had a conversation with my mum and she was quite brilliant, touchscreen scrollwheel will be towards the right or on the left for right-handers or left-handers. because it is widescreen scrollwheel should not be in the center. pull out your wallet and imagine it is the ipod video widescreen.... note where your thumb is ;)

http://i75.photobucket.com/albums/i293/sunilraman/ipodvideo.jpg

[sunilraman]

It still may be possible iPhone is one more thing... closely guarded secret. Apple may have leaked the agenda with the iPhone left out so they can spring it on us unsuspecting peoples. :D

[sunilraman]

Showtime.

http://i75.photobucket.com/albums/i293/sunilraman/sep12.jpg

[melgross]

Actually Melgross, apologies, the TUAW report on TubePort does not show composite- or s-video outputs. Hmmmmmm WTF

Told you...nah, I won't stoop to that.:)

By the way, even though you got me doing it as well, it's 852 x 480.

[sunilraman]

NO iPHONE...!!

[sunilraman]

iTV (formerly referred to by me as TubePort/ AirMovies) has only component video and HDMI , possibly DVI outputs. No S-Video or Composite out, from the looks of it.

[melgross]

NO iPHONE...!!

What are you doing up at this time?

[sunilraman]

I got up at 3:am to follow the drip feed of news. Frack me, it's 4:30am now... ! Waiting for iTunes7 to download, I'll check that out, then go back to sleep. The new iPod nano and shuffle does nothing for me. Good, I'll save my birthday present from my brother for something like another 6600GT nVidia to SLI my rig and maybe another 512mb x 2 to bring my RAM to 2GB on the rig. Sweeeet...

[melgross]

iTV (formerly referred to by me as TubePort/ AirMovies) has only component video and HDMI , possibly DVI outputs. No S-Video or Composite out, from the looks of it.

Now, does it have DRM? No mention of that. If it does, then HD should play over it, assuming the bandwidth of the WiFi is up to it. Otherwise the Ethernet should work. But what speed is that? 100Mbs? That's what I would assume, though I rather it is 1Gbs.

[sunilraman]

Maybe some upgrades of my heatsinkfans:

http://www.zalman.co.kr/upload/product/8000_c_p.jpg

http://www.zalman.co.kr/upload/product/vf900_culed_c_p.jpg

[melgross]

Maybe some upgrades of my heatsinkfans:


You're suggesting that it would need those?

[beargaga]

Agree with that, people are really crazy for Apple iPhone.

[JRC]

Did the iPhone thingy come out?

[beargaga]

Did the iPhone thingy come out?

No, at least I don't see it.

[Dr Millmoss]

I don't know why this thread from three years ago was suddenly revived, but it does make for instructive reading. How many were even remotely close to guessing what Apple would deliver in 2006?