Mid-Term Predictions

[midwinter]

House: small Democratic majority (+15)
Senate: dead even to +1 Dem
Governors: no idea. +5?

[addabox]

House: small Democratic majority (+15)
Senate: dead even to +1 Dem
Governors: no idea. +5?

I'll go a little higher on the house-- +22

Agree with the Senate. Probably even, if the dems pick up the plus one it will be a squeaker.

I know of about 4 governors races that look pretty much in the bag, there may be more.

[FormerLurker]

+17 D in the House

+1 R or dead even in the Senate

+5 D Governors

[addabox]

+17 D in the House

+1 R or dead even in the Senate

+5 D Governors

Wait, are we talking about net gains or "seats over majority"?

"+1 R" would mean a Dem pickup of 4 seats, which is plausible, but "+17 D" in the same terms would mean a 32 seat run, which does not.

[trumptman]

Who knows the numbers in individual races? There are always some surprises out there. My prediction is that Republicans hold both houses.

Instead it is much easier to predict what the media, with their group think liberal mentality will do as a narrative. So I predict the following.

1) Ford Jr. will lose. News cycle will go on endlessly about how it is because of White Southern REPUBLICAN racism.

2) Steele will lose. News cycle will never note that his credit report was stolen, that he was endorsed by all black leaders including having Mfume's son campaign for him because the Maryland Democratic party did not endorse nor run a single black candidate statewide, that he was called slavish, a lawn jockey, etc.

3) Santorum will lose and nothing will be said about Casey being able to win by being pro-life.

4) Republicans will lose in Ohio but there will be no concerns about voting machines this time.

5) Ford Jr. will lose in Tenneesee and the media will go on and on about black voter suppression, machine distribution, etc.

6) Among the toss-up races, at least one Republican will pull out a win and have it attributed to the party machine within that state insuring the result via whatever means necessary. The most likely scenario for this is Burns over Tester so that the media can complain about the state machine overcoming the scandal of Burns.

7) Such a story will never be considered for New Jersey.

Nick

[SDW2001]

House: Toss Up, Leans Dem

Senate: Republican

Ford will lose. Santorum will lose by a smaller margin than predicted. Kean will lose. Steele will win and Talent will win. Dems will take the majority of governorships. Rendell will win, which makes me sick because he's a lying scumbag and Swann is a total moron.

[Aurora]

America is pretty stupid these days and seem to think Republicans have christian values when the truth is just the opposite. I wouldnt be surprised to see them still supporting the republican base even with all the crap they have pulled like this stupid war,spying on Americans while letting in millions of illegals,scandal after scandal and we still have people who back that corrupt party of big business deals. We need the powe to be split bettween both partys so neither can do anything stupid. The past 6 years should be a example to open minded people.

[jimmac]

America is pretty stupid these days and seem to think Republicans have christian values when the truth is just the opposite. I wouldnt be surprised to see them still supporting the republican base even with all the crap they have pulled like this stupid war,spying on Americans while letting in millions of illegals,scandal after scandal and we still have people who back that corrupt party of big business deals. We need the powe to be split bettween both partys so neither can do anything stupid. The past 6 years should be a example to open minded people.


Democrats will pick up the house maybe a good portion of the senate ( not sure they'll take it however ).

Today will be a generally upseting day for republicans.

[dmz]

I remember the polls telling us how tight the Reagan/Carter race was going to be. Zogby does have a good track record, but I'll be surprised if the polls accurately reflect what will happen, it will probably swing more to one side or the other, than anyone is predicting.

Whatever the outcome, the drive-by media will continue to report the only the failures of the right, and the successes of the left.

(And unless you, or someone in your immediate family is bleeding, there is no excuse for not voting.)

[trumptman]

Um-- that was a contributing factor given that racist "playboy" ad.



That's not why Casey is ahead in the polls by so much.

In fact there's a bit of regret that Democrats didn't pick an even stronger progressive candidate.

Yeah, picking a blond white woman to represent playboy is really a stretch and out of character.

Implying she would date Ford Jr. isn't racist. Imply she could not or wouldn't is and that is what is so hilarious about the spin guys like you have bought on that issue.

Of course calling Steele, Blackman, Swann lawn jockey's... well that obviously isn't racist.:rolleyes:

Nick

[BRussell]

I don't see Democrats losing any of the top Senate races except Tennessee. So let's see, that's OH, PA, MT, RI, VA, and MO, which makes 6 and a majority.

I have no idea about the House, but everyone seems to be saying a pickup of 20-30 seats.

[southside grabowski]

I'm back from a week of stuffing mailboxes for Shelley Sekula Gibbs . Good feeling about the election. I see a bad day for Dems.

[MarcUK]

I'm back from a week of stuffing mailboxes for Shelley Sekula Gibbs . Good feeling about the election. I see a bad day for Dems.

:lol:

[trumptman]

Well, I don't expect you to ever "get" things that require a bit of inference or contexual understanding outside your own experiences.

So I'll let this one go. :)

You're right. Since I don't live in your racist little Penn state hamlet... I don't understand that a white woman expressing desire for a black man could only every indicate racism.

See, where I live, such things are common. So we can "get" that it isn't racist because here, such thoughts aren't. I guess where you live you can "get" it because the only thought that must occur where you live when a black man and white woman are pictured together, is that it is unnatural and wrong.

Thanks for sharing.

Nick

[Splinemodel]

Oh shit.

Here's the New York Times' notorious Adam Nagourney pushing the latest spin (http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/07/us/politics/07memo.html?ei=5094&en=03ec0756df1a73c8&hp=&ex=1162962000&adxnnl=1&partner=homepage&adxnnlx=1162913980-1p4jEBCaGNMBl/+m4Svh1w).

"A slight win for Democrats is a win for Republicans!"
It is, if you're considering "Republican" to refer to the party pre-1997.

[Gilsch]

See, where I live, such things are common. So we can "get" that it isn't racist because here, such thoughts aren't. Well...uhh...that's the point. It's not an ad for California. It's for Tennessee. :no:

Focus people. It's not that hard.

I'm back from a week of stuffing mailboxes for Shelley Sekula Gibbs . Good feeling about the election. I see a bad day for Dems. Isn't stuffing mailboxes illegal? ;)

[southside grabowski]

Well...uhh...that's the point. It's not an ad for California. It's for Tennessee. :no:

Focus people. It's not that hard.

Isn't stuffing mailboxes illegal? ;)


That's stuffing ballot boxes that is illegal8)

[MacRR]

Actually- putting anything in someone's mailbox is a violation of Law.

http://www.gao.gov/archive/1997/gg97085.pdf

[southside grabowski]

Actually- putting anything in someone's mailbox is a violation of Law.

http://www.gao.gov/archive/1997/gg97085.pdf


If it is a stand-alone mailbox. It is ok to put stuff in a mail slot in the door or wall.

[MacRR]

If it is a stand-alone mailbox. It is ok to put stuff in a mail slot in the door or wall.
That's true. But you said you were stuffing mailboxes. :shrug:

[BRussell]

That's OK, it was probably just informative Republican voter guides, telling voters in certain areas that they will be arrested if they go to vote, or that the date of the election or their polling place has changed.

[addabox]

That's OK, it was probably just informative Republican voter guides, telling voters in certain areas that they will be arrested if they go to vote, or that the date of the election or their polling place has changed.

But I heard that the Dems were passing out crack to entice negroes to vote!

[Harald]

4) Republicans will lose in Ohio but there will be no concerns about voting machines this time.

Better work on the ESP. (http://edition.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/11/07/voting.problems.ap/index.html)

[southside grabowski]

We don't need to trick the Dem voters into not showing up. They don't vote.

[Harald]

Interesting. More of them voted for Al Gore then George Bush. How do you figure that out?

[southside grabowski]

Interesting. More of them voted for Al Gore then George Bush. How do you figure that out?


http://www.dollarsandsense.org/archives/2004/0104cervantes.html

[SDW2001]

America is pretty stupid these days and seem to think Republicans have christian values when the truth is just the opposite. I wouldnt be surprised to see them still supporting the republican base even with all the crap they have pulled like this stupid war,spying on Americans while letting in millions of illegals,scandal after scandal and we still have people who back that corrupt party of big business deals. We need the powe to be split bettween both partys so neither can do anything stupid. The past 6 years should be a example to open minded people.

America is pretty stupid these days and seem to think Democrats care about black people when the truth is just the opposite. I wouldnt be surprised to see them still supporting the Democratic base even with all the crap they have pulled like keeping them dependent on welfare to further enhance their own power base, having former Grand Wizards of the KKK lead the Senate and having the the party chair make racial slurs. We need the power to be split bettween[sic] both partys [sic] so neither can do anything stupid. The past 50 years should be a example to open minded people.

:)

[SDW2001]

I don't see Democrats losing any of the top Senate races except Tennessee. So let's see, that's OH, PA, MT, RI, VA, and MO, which makes 6 and a majority.

I have no idea about the House, but everyone seems to be saying a pickup of 20-30 seats.


They'll likely lose MT, RI, VA and MO...and TN. They will win PA and OH.
They might even lose MD and NJ. They're not taking the Senate.

[hardeeharhar]

They'll likely lose MT, RI, VA and MO...and TN. They will win PA and OH.
They might even lose MD and NJ. They're not taking the Senate.

Quote the SDW "nevermore"...

[sammi jo]

My prediction: No change. Republicans may keep both houses... Senate with a reduced majority, and Representatives a real squeaker, possibly as few as on or two seats between the 2 main parties.

[hardeeharhar]

I agree, there will be no change. And the republicans will use this opportunity to ream the american people that didn't vote for them...

[sammi jo]

We don't need to trick the Dem voters into not showing up. They don't vote.


Now that is so true. Dems are traditionally lazy about voting compared to Conservatives. More and more Liberals feel disenfranchised because their views are not being represented, as many "democratic candidates" have moved rightwards, to fill the center-right gap that the Republicans traditionally used to occupy.. this vacuum being caused by (the Repubs') own shift to further out on the right.

Why might this be? Much to do with framing of issues...where the word "liberal" has been tainted by the opposition, aided by talk radio and the mainstream media, to encompass such concepts as "anti-military" "anti-business" "anti-security" even Anti-America".

In the light of this type of psychological strategy, it is a no-brainer that dcemocratic candidates shy away from a "liberal" or "progressive" platform, for fear of being seen as "soft on terrorism" etc.

This was illustrated perfectly the other day when John Kerry folded and apologized, when an apology was the last thing he should have said. What he should have done was tell the country exactly why he said what he did he said, and the actuality of the demographics of those who are taking bullets and bombs on behalf of corporate greed.

Even though Kerry showed bravery in Vietnam, he has relegated himself to weaseldom and cowardice at home. That is one reason why John Kerry is totally unqualified to serve as president, if he runs in 2008.

[BRussell]

They'll likely lose MT, RI, VA and MO...and TN. They will win PA and OH.
They might even lose MD and NJ. They're not taking the Senate. A lot would have to go right for Democrats to win all the states I listed. But the fact is they're up in the polls in every one of them, even if by very small margins. The trends are positive for Repubs in MT, MD, and RI, and positive for Dems in VA. But Dems are still up in all, so I guess the question is whether the Republican trends are going to pan out. But at least I'm going with the data rather than... whatever you and Nick are going with. ESP?

[SDW2001]

Now that is so true. Dems are traditionally lazy about voting compared to Conservatives. More and more Liberals feel disenfranchised because their views are not being represented, as many "democratic candidates" have moved rightwards, to fill the center-right gap that the Republicans traditionally used to occupy.. this vacuum being caused by (the Repubs') own shift to further out on the right.

Why might this be? Much to do with framing of issues...where the word "liberal" has been tainted by the opposition, aided by talk radio and the mainstream media, to encompass such concepts as "anti-military" "anti-business" "anti-security" even Anti-America".

In the light of this type of psychological strategy, it is a no-brainer that dcemocratic candidates shy away from a "liberal" or "progressive" platform, for fear of being seen as "soft on terrorism" etc.

This was illustrated perfectly the other day when John Kerry folded and apologized, when an apology was the last thing he should have said. What he should have done was tell the country exactly why he said what he did he said, and the actuality of the demographics of those who are taking bullets and bombs on behalf of corporate greed.

Even though Kerry showed bravery in Vietnam, he has relegated himself to weaseldom and cowardice at home. That is one reason why John Kerry is totally unqualified to serve as president, if he runs in 2008.

:lol: Wow.

John Kerry didn't even actually apologize. He certainly apologized less sincerely than Rush Limbaugh did.

As for your analysis, it is partly correct. There are more conservative Democrats running this time around, which will help them regain power, if they do. However, the party elite is still comprised of the far left. Pelosi, Conyers, Rangle, Reid, et al are the ones running the party, and they are not centrists no matter what anyone tells you.

The takeover of the Dem party by leftists is best illustrated by Joe Liebermann being thrown to the wolves. Now, wouldn't it be funny if the Republicans won the Senate 50-49-1? ;)

[SDW2001]

A lot would have to go right for Democrats to win all the states I listed. But the fact is they're up in the polls in every one of them, even if by very small margins. The trends are positive for Repubs in MT, MD, and RI, and positive for Dems in VA. But Dems are still up in all, so I guess the question is whether the Republican trends are going to pan out. But at least I'm going with the data rather than... whatever you and Nick are going with. ESP?


I don't know what you are looking at. The polls vary. VA, TN should be secure. RI should go Republican and MD may do so. They would really have to run the table to take the Senate.

The House is another story.

[BRussell]

Actually if that happens it'll be 50-48-2. Sanders in VT is also an independent who caucuses with Democrats, like Lieberman.

[edit] you posted before me. I'm looking at the averages of all the polls. They're at pollster.com (http://www.pollster.com/senate.php). They show Democrats up, albeit by small margins in some cases, in all the states I listed.

[hardeeharhar]

America is pretty stupid these days and seem to think Democrats care about black people when the truth is just the opposite. I wouldnt be surprised to see them still supporting the Democratic base even with all the crap they have pulled like keeping them dependent on welfare to further enhance their own power base, having former Grand Wizards of the KKK lead the Senate and having the the party chair make racial slurs. We need the power to be split bettween[sic] both partys [sic] so neither can do anything stupid. The past 50 years should be a example to open minded people.

:)
Wait. Are you saying that Blacks who vote Democratic don't have their interest at heart? Or aren't Black US Citizens Americans as well? I am not really sure I understand what you think you are saying here. You haven't left Pennsylvania your entire life, and that fact certainly doesn't qualify you to judge the two parties where there are a plurality or near plurality of National minorities, where such statements should apply most aptly.

[SDW2001]

Wait. Are you saying that Blacks who vote Democratic don't have their interest at heart? Or aren't Black US Citizens Americans as well? I am not really sure I understand what you think you are saying here. You haven't left Pennsylvania your entire life, and that fact certainly doesn't qualify you to judge the two parties where there are a plurality or near plurality of National minorities, where such statements should apply most aptly.

It was a rewrite of what someone else posted. Go back and take a look.
Oh, and I have left PA. I was just in Delaware today. ;)

[hardeeharhar]

It was a rewrite of what someone else posted. Go back and take a look.
Oh, and I have left PA. I was just in Delaware today. ;)


My bad.

[trumptman]

Better work on the ESP. (http://edition.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/11/07/voting.problems.ap/index.html)

I'm speaking about AFTER the election. Watch all those voting machine concerns disappear in Ohio when the Dems win there.

Nick

[Gilsch]

If it is a stand-alone mailbox. It is ok to put stuff in a mail slot in the door or wall. Tell that to the judge. ;)

[SDW2001]

I'm speaking about AFTER the election. Watch all those voting machine concerns disappear in Ohio when the Dems win there.

Nick

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: Yeah, seriously.

[SDW2001]

Santorum and Dewine are gone. Kean loses. 4 more to go for control of the Senate.

[spindler]

What a great year 2006 is turning out to be. Three things I've been waiting for for a long time: Americans finally let Bush know he's an idiot, Apple starts making some serious marketshare gains, and Guns 'N' Roses really about to get their album out. The world is starting to make some sense.

[SDW2001]

What a great year 2006 is turning out to be. Three things I've been waiting for for a long time: Americans finally let Bush know he's an idiot, Apple starts making some serious marketshare gains, and Guns 'N' Roses really about to get their album out. The world is starting to make some sense.

"Americans finally let Bush know he's an idiot"

Why, because they might take the House in a 6th year midterm? Bush isn't running. As much as the Dems would like to tell you this is about Bush, it's not. It's about conservative and moderate voters turning away from a GOP that did it to themselves. Overspending. Immigration. Border security. It's all coupled with a tough war, and that's not good regardless of who the President is.

[trumptman]

Dude, you think a Gun 'N' Roses without Slash makes sense?:wow: :no:

Nick

[SDW2001]

Dude, you think a Gun 'N' Roses without Slash makes sense?:wow: :no:

Nick


:lol:

[SDW2001]

Dems are within 5 seats in the house and within 3 in the Senate. However, Talent will win. That might be the difference. I'm surprised Chaffee lost. Dem control of the house is all but assured.

[BRussell]

Dude, you think a Gun 'N' Roses without Slash makes sense?:wow: :no:

Nick About as much sense as the Republican party without Rick Santorum.

[spindler]

Why, because they might take the House in a 6th year midterm? Bush isn't running. As much as the Dems would like to tell you this is about Bush, it's not. It's about conservative and moderate voters turning away from a GOP that did it to themselves. Overspending. Immigration. Border security. It's all coupled with a tough war, and that's not good regardless of who the President is.

These are all Bush's policies. This isn't what would be happening with McCain or Giuliani at the helm. Republicans rubber stamped everything Bush handed out.

And it's not a "tough" war. You have to be competent at something to claim you've had bad luck. If someone has a hunch and invests their life savings in high risk investments without knowing what they're doing at all, you wouldn't say they had tough luck when they lost everything. You would say they were thoroughly incompetent to get themselves in that situation in the first place.

Americans don't just think it's a "tough" war, they think we are in a tough position because Bush walked in blindly.

[SDW2001]

These are all Bush's policies. This isn't what would be happening with McCain or Giuliani at the helm. Republicans rubber stamped everything Bush handed out.

And it's not a "tough" war. You have to be competent at something to claim you've had bad luck. If someone has a hunch and invests their life savings in high risk investments without knowing what they're doing at all, you wouldn't say they had tough luck when they lost everything. You would say they were thoroughly incompetent to get themselves in that situation in the first place.

Americans don't just think it's a "tough" war, they think we are in a tough position because Bush walked in blindly.

I agree to an extent. But the house and senate screwed Bush on immigration and on socia security.

In the end more might get done. We've had two years of doing nothing with domestic policy. I disagree with your Iraq comments in total. Secondly, Democrats still haven't told us what they will do. We'll see now...

[Harald]

Who knows the numbers in individual races? There are always some surprises out there. My prediction is that Republicans hold both houses.

ESP! ESP! ESP!

[Outsider]

Yikes, and people take financial advice from him? :D I keed, I keed.