Which way will Lebanon go?

[mydo]

More assassinations in Lebanon.

Funeral for Lebanese minister turns into anti-Syria rally (http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/11/23/lebanon.gemayel/index.html)

This time it's "anti-Syrian" Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel. A Christian political leader. No one has proof but the blame is going on Syria and by proxy Hezbollah.

Hezbollah is threatening to over throw the fragile democracy in Lebanon if they don't get more say in the government. That's not a democratic attitude. And Lebanon is trying to rebuild after being bombed back to the stone age by Israel.

The real question is which way will Lebanon go? Will Hezbollah be successful and take control? They have a lot of popular support. Or will rule of law and democracy win the day? Civil war followed by a split? Maybe Israel will restart their bombing using the civil war as a pretext?

A second question is who is committing all the assassinations? The Mains tell me it's Hezbollah/Syria/Iran. How would I know. Ask this question? Who stands to gain the most from instability in Lebanon. Any honest accounting has to put Israel/US at the top of the list.

What's your take?

[sammi jo]

More assassinations in Lebanon.

Funeral for Lebanese minister turns into anti-Syria rally (http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/11/23/lebanon.gemayel/index.html)

This time it's "anti-Syrian" Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel. A Christian political leader. No one has proof but the blame is going on Syria and by proxy Hezbollah.

Hezbollah is threatening to over throw the fragile democracy in Lebanon if they don't get more say in the government. That's not a democratic attitude. And Lebanon is trying to rebuild after being bombed back to the stone age by Israel.

The real question is which way will Lebanon go? Will Hezbollah be successful and take control? They have a lot of popular support. Or will rule of law and democracy win the day? Civil war followed by a split? Maybe Israel will restart their bombing using the civil war as a pretext?

A second question is who is committing all the assassinations? The Mains tell me it's Hezbollah/Syria/Iran. How would I know. Ask this question? Who stands to gain the most from instability in Lebanon. Any honest accounting has to put Israel/US at the top of the list.

What's your take?

Think back to the assassination of Rafik Hariri. Who got the blame for that? Syria. How much evidence was there that Syria was involved? Zero, apart from conspiracy theories spread by enemies of Syria, involving secret tunnels, remote controlled detonators, pre-knowledge by the Syrian authorities etc. etc. none of which existed. The murder weapon was a car-bomb, and the assassin (or one of them) was Ahmed Adas, a 24-year-old Palestinian refugee living in the poor Beirut neighborhood of Tarik Jadida. and was a member of an unknown jihadist group,"Advocacy and Holy War in the Levant".

This time, another anti-Syria official gets assassinated. Look who is getting the blame this time around in Lebanon itself: Hezbollah and Sryia. Their rivals in the region will link Gamayel's killing to Damascus, by default, and this will be backed up by Washington. The administration of Bashar al-Assad is a pretty unsavory bunch of thugs, but they are not so stupid and politically naive enough to go pulling cheap stunts like these... being fully aware of the obvious outcome. Logically, the most likely perpetrators, in both cases are enemies of Syria.

[Powerdoc]

Sammi Jo, for most lebanese it's obvious that Syria is behind those assassinations.

The problem of leban is their neighboors. It's a struggle between, iran, syria, and israel (backed by US). Leban is a very small countrie, but full of well educated people.

[sammi jo]

Sammi Jo, for most lebanese it's obvious that Syria is behind those assassinations.

Exactly... even if when in reality, they were not.

Because of the 30 years Syrian ocupation, many Lebanese hate the Syrians (understandably).... and its very easy to lead a people, who have such negative preconceptions, by the nose.

[lunocrat]

My unifaceted Lebanese Study Group intuits Mossad or Shin Beit.

[southside grabowski]

Where was Rummy when this guy was shot? This whole thing stinks of a neocon plot to prepare the sheep for an invasion of Syria.