Macworld == Lots of Disappointed Geeks

[bshort]

The rumor mill is really on overdrive this year, and I think it's because there's no good leads on what's coming out on Tuesday.

The Apple blogosphere has become bigger than the speed of rumor, so a random guess by some guy on some random board quickly becomes a sure thing after it's hoped from blogger to blogger a few times, and it's resulted in a situation where Apple's stock price is being directly affected by the credibility of the rumors.

It's crazy.

Let's run down a few of the rumors.

The iPhone: I seriously doubt it. The phone market is one huge cockup, with the carriers making unreasonable demands on the manufacturers. Special interfaces, disabled features, carrier branding, etc. The list of concessions is long and preposterous, and I doubt Apple is going to want to play those reindeer games. Sure, they could sell GSM phones, but the GSM service in the US mostly sucks, with T-Mobile and Cingular doing everything they can to not upgrade their network. And unless they're going to offer a subsidy themselves, Apple is going to end up pricing a phone upwards of $400, which is not going to excite many users.

Displays with iSight built in: no way. It sounds like a kludgy solution and doesn't offer any real benefit. Unless they're going to add iSight to all their displays and use it as a justification to charge more than Dell and Gateway for something that's becoming a commodity, I just don't see it happening. What benefit will this give over a separate webcam? Fewer positioning options?

MacBookMini: I would love to see Apple come out with the equivalent of the ultralight Wintel machines, but I don't think Jobs is ever going to let a Mac get released that doesn't have an optical drive. I think that's a huge mistake, but Steve is persnickety about things like this.

new iMac: No. Just no. It's already a laptop in a desktop enclosure, and unless components get radically smaller, or they decide to sell a 30" version, it's just not going to change much over the next few years.

Early Leopard Release: No. The developer versions we've been seeing out in the wild are not ready for primetime. It's going to be near the end of Q2 before we see this hit stores.

30th Anniversary Mac: No. If they were going to release one, they would have done it last year. Steve doesn't seem to like having a gazillion different products on the market, and I just don't see them releasing a special edition computer that is obviously going away after a year.

True Video iPod: No. Most people aren't going to want to take the tradeoffs inherent in a Video iPod, especially if the only benefit is that they get to watch videos on a larger screen. Unless you take public transportation, you probably don't have time to watch movies on your iPod on a regular basis. Having a huge, delicate screen on a device device that scratches every time you breath on it, and that would be priced at $599? That isn't going to appeal to anyone.

No, I think that what's probably going to happen is that the iTV device is going to be talked about, and probably released, there will be an iLife update, and lots of talk about Leopard, but that's it. We'll get a lot of warm, fuzzy, talk to keep up the RDF, and Steve will talk about how this is going to be a great year, with great products, and he's really excited, and... see you at WWDC.

There's going to be lots of pissed-off nerds on Tuesday. Just you wait.

-B

[shanmugam]

Will be Disappointing :(

[SpamSandwich]

FTW!!! SPQR!!! NATO!!! W.o.O.h.P.!!!

[infinitespecter]

With regard to your comment on the "MacBookMini", I think that you are off base. We aren't asking for something the size of a Sony TX (11" screen, etc). We are asking for something the size of a Sony SZ, with a 13" screen and weight around 4lbs and still includes all the appropriate drives. It can be done relatively easily, as virtually every other maker has one on the market. Other then that, I tend to agree with your assessment.

[sunilraman]

The rumor mill is really on overdrive this year, and I think it's because there's no good leads on what's coming out on Tuesday.

The Apple blogosphere has become bigger than the speed of rumor, so a random guess by some guy on some random board quickly becomes a sure thing after it's hoped from blogger to blogger a few times, and it's resulted in a situation where Apple's stock price is being directly affected by the credibility of the rumors.

It's crazy.

I totally agree. This thing is totally out of control. I can even read full posts or make sensible posts myself. :wow:

[bshort]

With regard to your comment on the "MacBookMini", I think that you are off base. We aren't asking for something the size of a Sony TX (11" screen, etc). We are asking for something the size of a Sony SZ, with a 13" screen and weight around 4lbs and still includes all the appropriate drives. It can be done relatively easily, as virtually every other maker has one on the market. Other then that, I tend to agree with your assessment.

I'm in total agreement, but I still don't think Steve is going to release something like this.

The main reason is that it would have to be different enough from the MacBook to not cause confusion in their product line. This points to a device that has a 12" or smaller screen, and weighs between 3 and 4 pounds.

This is a size that is well-represented in the Windows world, but the tradeoffs are severe and the prices tend to be very high for what you get. Also, I don't think that many people are actually going to buy a device like this. The main market for ultraportables is businessmen who travel a lot and hard-core computer nerds. Apple isn't really interested in competing for the business market, since it's a market that doesn't care about the advantages Apple has, and the population of computer nerds, while vocal, is very small.

I would be the first in line to buy a MacBook Mini, but I just don't see Apple coming out with one.

-B

[gwoodpecker]

FTW!!! SPQR!!! NATO!!! W.o.O.h.P.!!!

:lol:

[drnat]

Unfortunately I think this is going to be true.

iLife '07
iWork '07
Bit more info re Leopard
Sales info & back slapping
iTV
? updated Mac Mini

There may be one other thing but probably more on the direction of travel?

Wonder if there is to be an iPhone if it will be released at a seperate event?

Would love an updated ipod but again - not sure there will be though

Lots of diasppointments post keynote :no:

[CDonG4]

So Steve comes up on stage does some beat poetry to music stylings of KFed and says thats it... oh yeah one more thing. iLife 07, its the same as 06 but with new packaging.

^^^ not a likely scenario... considering the website banner for the last week on apple.com and the matching banners at Moscone, something big is going to happen. Your predictions of everything not happening is just as informed at everyone elses uninformed guessing. Whether its a phone, new ipod, itv it doesn't matter... there is something extremely large afoot and not many people know what. Apple has the media and a number of others dangling by a string in anticipation, this doesn't happen with any other tech company on such a frequent basis.

Ever heard of a PSP? 200 bucks, huge screen, runs linux.
Ever heard of Aivx? 200 bucks, small, uses 80GB hd, runs a media browser via remote, plays MPEG-4 out of HD Component jacks at 480i/p 720p and 1080i.

http://www.coolgear.com/productdetails1.cfm?sku=USBG-AIVX8&cats=106&catid=140,118,131,161,174,175,176

If the iTV is announced alongside with already more than likely Movie sales from the iTMS... there is no way Apple will not have a portable solution for this content. People already watch movies on their iPod and PSP gets some major releases put out on PSP mini discs. The only thing lacking from Apple is the hardware, the customer base and desired usage is already there.

[FreeState]

iLife '07
iWork '07
Bit more info re Leopard
Sales info & back slapping
iTV
? updated Mac Mini

I agree almost 100%

iWork 07
iLife 07
Some on leopard (release date may)
Sales info
iTunes movie store announcement (more studios)
iTV demo (ships end of February)

One more thing...

some neat little item we all have no idea of and don't need or want (like the iPod Hi-Fi).

[onlooker]

Personally I wish Apple would sell Eye TV from Apple store with a discount for buying it pre-installed in a MacMini. Basically buy them out, but I don't see that happening. As for MacWorld. All I'm really looking foreword to is Seeing some new Leopard features.


I know better than to be an idiot about rumors. I know what's comng once it's here. :)

[drnat]

iTunes movie store announcement (more studios)


I hope that this is coming to europe/UK aswell....

[DHagan4755]

After all of these years of Macworld leading to disappointment...you'd think that people would get a clue and play their bets a little more conservatively. But no, every one thinks "this year is going to be big" so they rattle off everything under the sun *they* think Apple should be coming out with (myself included) ... One never knows so it's still best to be conservative. drnat is probably spot on...

[bshort]

SNIP

^^^ not a likely scenario... considering the website banner for the last week on apple.com and the matching banners at Moscone, something big is going to happen. Your predictions of everything not happening is just as informed at everyone elses uninformed guessing. Whether its a phone, new ipod, itv it doesn't matter... there is something extremely large afoot and not many people know what. Apple has the media and a number of others dangling by a string in anticipation, this doesn't happen with any other tech company on such a frequent basis.

SNIP

Sometimes a banner is just a banner.

Apple could be trying to keep spirits high by pointing to product releases later in the year. The anticipation and excitement is entirely generated by the rumor sites and isn't actually supported by any clear evidence.

We haven't seen any credible rumors in quite a while, which could mean that Apple has just gotten much much much better about security, but which could just as easily mean that there's nothing coming out to spark the rumors in the first place.

When was the last time Apple released a totally ground-breaking device? Maybe the iPod, but it wasn't really acclaimed when it came out. The most recent iMac is a sweet machine, but it wasn't a huge leap from the last model; it was really just a result of incremental improvements. I'd say maybe the original Powerbook.

Last year was a big year for Apple. They transitioned their entire line of computers to a new processor architecture, and they did it in the most seamless and painless manner I could imagine. I wouldn't be at all surprised to hear that the MWSF Keynote is going to be a software-only event this year, with only incremental versions getting released.

-B

[failurebydesign]

I know better than to be an idiot about rumors. I know what's comng once it's here. :)

I agree with you.

[132GHz,4TB DDR8 SDRAM,95TB HDD]

Nope..I know it too-
I can almost feel it.
Apple will unviel something big.

Im talking something in between rofl the Mac Pro and the iMac.
A Mid-Sized tower of Prosumers.

[BenRoethig]

At the end of the Leopard demonstration, I have a feeling Apple is going to announce something big.

[Outsider]

I've been in the Apple/Mac scene for almost 2 decades, from print to web, I've been immersed in Apple, Apple rumors, failures, successes. My gut tells me there is something big coming. The buzz is deafening.

[132GHz,4TB DDR8 SDRAM,95TB HDD]

OMG !
Dont say that-
you have made me 33% more hyped now !

I dont know what to do with myself...

INSANITY !!

...


...


...


I WANT A xMAC ! 8)


Omg-
you people in the US are getting the keynote sooner than us in London !
I have to wait until about 5-6pm :wow:

[pn18]

what about a Mac Pro/iMac crossover built for gamers?
games could run on a directX enabled sandbox.

ok, that's bs :D

[Trendannoyer]

//Macworld == Lots of Disappointed Geeks//

well unless they DONT update the mini im clearly not a geek then! :)

now quit with the negitive "this wont happen that wont happen " CRAP

theres only 30 odd hours left to go... let us indulge in the madness!

[Flounder]

So what do you think they ARE going to announce, bshort?
It's possible it won't be at this event, but an apple phone is coming. The hype surrounding it has reached such a fever pitch that if it wasn't coming, apple would have had to go on record by now that it isn't.

[willrob]

They did say last year they were looking into it. And they have patents for one.

[bshort]

So what do you think they ARE going to announce, bshort?
It's possible it won't be at this event, but an apple phone is coming. The hype surrounding it has reached such a fever pitch that if it wasn't coming, apple would have had to go on record by now that it isn't.

The iTV device is going to be talked about, and probably released.

There will be an iLife update.

Lots of talk about Leopard.

Maybe an update to iWork.

That's it.

Why would they have to release a statement saying they're not working on a Phone? Apple benefits from all the speculation whether it's supported or not. It's only at a fever pitch on sites like this, and frankly, I doubt Apple really cares what we think.

-B

[Flounder]

I say that because they've done it in the past, when people are CONVINCED that something is coming that isn't. Honestly, I can't remember any off the top of my head because, well, they were never released :) Maybe someone with a better memory can help me.

Once it gets to the point of affecting their stock price (and if they don't come out with a phone in the first half of the year, ther will be a large negative impact) apple is much more forthcoming.

It's not just at a fever pitch at sites like this. It's all over analyst reports and reputable papers such as WSJ

[ricksbrain]

It's simple behavior analysis-- if Steve rewards us with everything they have brewing, we're less likley to follow them as closely than if he saves something for a separate event in a few months. Staggered reward in this case cause über-geeks to hang on because they're sure that it'll pay off, despite their feelings of current disappointment. It's like training a dog. Geek. Same thing.

[Kickaha]

Omg-
you people in the US are getting the keynote sooner than us in London !
I have to wait until about 5-6pm :wow:

Er, I could be wrong, but I think there's thing called 'time zones' that lets your clock be several hours after ours, but we can still experience the same event *SIMULTANEOUSLY*! It's like time travel, I *swear*!

;)

[pn18]

so it's smth like time machine, I guess :D

[Frank777]

Maybe I'm too easily impressed, but after seven years of asking for a new productivity suite I will be elated if iWork finally gets a spreadsheet.

If that's all Steve announces, I'm cool with that.

[Rolo]

A guy I know who is attending MW said this today:

"…sat next to a Apple Manager on the flight! He was tight-lipped about tomorrow but did say "though it is hard to please everyone, I think most will be blown away by tomorrow's announcements". I asked him about the iPhone and he just smiled and would not look me in the eye!"

[132GHz,4TB DDR8 SDRAM,95TB HDD]

!

Looks like tomorrow is going to be a...'interesting'...day !
Damn Im hyped !


omg omg omg etc

[TednDi]

Or every GEEK will explode with Apple goodness.

ARGHHHH

This is the worst preNote that I have yet expierienced!! wehre is the elevator pics, where is the sandwich shop talk.

this is killing me!!!

[bshort]

I'm glad I was proved wrong.

The iPhone is actually far more impressive than any of the mockups I've seen. The fact that it's running OS X or at least some version of OS X is probably the most impressive part of the device. I imagine it'll be drop-dead easy to build new apps in XCode, and if we can actually just drop a desktop app into the phone I'll be first in line to get one.

[csi95]

Despite the fact that you were wrong on at least one prediction, I must admit...

...I am a bit dissappointed.

First, I've got a cell phone. It's under contract until September, and it's on Verizon. As cool as the iPhone looks, it's not going to get me to drop my current contract and pay a penalty. Also, Verizon has much better service where I live than Cingular. That puts the iPhone in the cool, but not helpful category for me.

What I'm sad to see is that the long-rumored widescreen iPod is the iPhone. I want just the widescreen! Drat!

Also, no new Macs at MacWorld. Where are the Quad Core iMacs? Where are the Octo Core Mac Pros? Where is Leopard? Not even so much as a mention???

It's nice to finally get the iPhone rumors behind us, but there was still a lot missing...

[bshort]

Despite the fact that you were wrong on at least one prediction, I must admit...

...I am a bit dissappointed.

First, I've got a cell phone. It's under contract until September, and it's on Verizon. As cool as the iPhone looks, it's not going to get me to drop my current contract and pay a penalty. Also, Verizon has much better service where I live than Cingular. That puts the iPhone in the cool, but not helpful category for me.

What I'm sad to see is that the long-rumored widescreen iPod is the iPhone. I want just the widescreen! Drat!

Also, no new Macs at MacWorld. Where are the Quad Core iMacs? Where are the Octo Core Mac Pros? Where is Leopard? Not even so much as a mention???

It's nice to finally get the iPhone rumors behind us, but there was still a lot missing...

Yep, I'm right there with you. Verizon in my area (NYC) is great and Cingular service is terrible. The iPhone is worthless if I can't actually use the phone feature.

And yeah, I want the same device, but without the phone component. WiFi, Bluetooth, etc. are really enough for me.

And, since it runs OSX, I can probably just use Skype.

[csi95]

And, since it runs OSX, I can probably just use Skype.

Oooooh, now you're on to something. I hadn't considered that.

The hair on the back of the neck of every Cingular executive probably went up when you said that.

"I felt a great disturbance in the Force, as if millions of customers suddenly cried out in excitement and our profits were suddenly silenced."

So I wonder if this means the end of the stand-alone iPod, or is there a chance we'll actually see a widescreen iPod (minus phone) somewhere down the road after the iPhone launch in June?

[bshort]

Oooooh, now you're on to something. I hadn't considered that.

The hair on the back of the neck of every Cingular executive probably went up when you said that.

"I felt a great disturbance in the Force, as if millions of customers suddenly cried out in excitement and our profits were suddenly silenced."

So I wonder if this means the end of the stand-alone iPod, or is there a chance we'll actually see a widescreen iPod (minus phone) somewhere down the road after the iPhone launch in June?

Well, the carriers are going to have to wrap their heads around the idea that they're selling computers and they won't be able to continue to restrict their users to boost their profits. $2.99 ringtones are going to be a thing of the past if the user can just drop a new mp3 in their ringtone folder.

I think this is going to be the lineup come July:

$79 - iPod Shuffle
$149 - 249 - iPod Nano
$299 - 399 - iPod 6G Widescreen touch interface but no OSX, no Widgets, and no internet access.
$399 - 499 - iPhone running OSX, etc.