Strong Mac, iPod growth may lift Apple past Street estimates

[AppleInsider]

Apple Inc., which reports results for its fiscal first quarter of 2007 after the close of the market on Wednesday, is likely to meet or slightly beat consensus estimates with help from robust sales of Macs and a rebound in iPod shipments, according to American Technology Research.

"Based on our analysis, we believe Apple is on track to report results in-line to slightly above consensus at $6.4 billion and $0.78, but well above Apple's guidance of $6.0-6.2 billion and $0.70-0.73," analyst Shaw Wu wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday.

Wu, noting that consensus estimates have moved up considerably over the past month to catch up to his once-above-consensus view, is modeling the company to report earnings of $0.79 per share on revenue of $6.4 billion.

His breakdown calls for continued strength in the Mac business to account for 38 percent of Apple's first quarter revenue, with overall shipments rising 11 percent sequentially to 1.8 million units.

On the iPod side -- which he believes will account for another 40 percent of total revenue -- the analyst expects to see "a continued rebound" of 77 percent sequential growth to 15.5 million units, based on strength in iPod shuffle and special edition red iPod nanos. *

Looking ahead to Apple's second fiscal quarter ending March, Wu said consensus out-quarter revenue estimates "appear reasonable" for the first time in over a year. Still, he sees the company guiding conservatively, but in-line, to $5.1-5.3 billion in revenue. His own model currently stands at $5.2 billion and $0.63 earnings-per share, versus consensus estimates of $5.2 billion and $0.60.

"We are forecasting a large sequential decline in iPods to 9.3 million units, but believe this will be offset by Apple TV shipping in February," Wu told clients.*"As we have mentioned before, we believe Apple TV with its attractive price point of $299 could be a surprise hit."

[solsun]

"We are forecasting a large sequential decline in iPods to 9.3 million units, but believe this will be offset by Apple TV shipping in February," Wu told clients.*"As we have mentioned before, we believe Apple TV with its attractive price point of $299 could be a surprise hit."

Hmm. I'm very skeptical about Apple Tv being a surprise hit... $299 for the device plus $179 for the Apple 802.11n router is $478, a hefty price to pay for it's limited functionality of getting "near dvd quality" iTunes media without surround sound to the living room... Especially when a $19 iPod AV cable will essentially do the same trick, albeit a less elegant method and without on screen menus, but still, the difference between $478 and $19 is significant when you consider that both methods will accomplish the same end result.

[mwswami]

Split Split Split :D :D :D

[Cubert]

Shaw Wu!

Gehsundheit.

[NVRsayNVR]

Split Split Split :D :D :D


Yep, Yep, Yep! :D :D :D

[aaarrrgggh]

I still say Apple will come in with 2MM mac units, although I think the iPod average selling point has dropped and we will end up with earnings per share of about $0.81.

The March quarter will be a little slower, but if mac unit sales hit the 2MM/quarter critical mass, it should be a good ride for the next 12 months!

[quinney]

Yep, Yep, Yep! :D :D :D

so what?, so what?, so what? :p :p :p

[solipsism]

Hmm. I'm very skeptical about Apple Tv being a surprise hit... $299 for the device plus $179 for the Apple 802.11n router is $478, a hefty price to pay for it's limited functionality of getting "near dvd quality" iTunes media without surround sound to the living room... Especially when a $19 iPod AV cable will essentially do the same trick, albeit a less elegant method and without on screen menus, but still, the difference between $478 and $19 is significant when you consider that both methods will accomplish the same end result.


You don't have to buy both devices.
There is no prerequisite to purchase media from iTunes.
I get surround sound with my HDMI compatible devices.

[Booga]

Apple TV does 720p, which is dramatically better than the 480p that DVD maxes out at. In addition, since it supports both HDMI and optical audio out, I'm not sure why you assume it's limited to non-surround sound. (If it is, it's certainly not a hardware limitation.) In addition, since all recent Intel Macs have the 802.11n support, you don't NEED a new base station if you have one of those.

So instead of comparing it to a $20 patch cable which will give you 1/4 of the resolution and a PITA connection to your system, why not compare it to an $800 TiVo Series 3 and a cable TV subscription of $40/mo.

Incidentally, it might make even more sense in England where I believe they have to pay television licenses for receivers, but the law hasn't caught up to internet-distributed video yet.

[solipsism]

[W]hy not compare it to an $800 TiVo Series 3 and a cable TV subscription of $40/mo.

You'll have to add in a a TV tuner from Migilia or EyeTV to make for a more fair analogy.

[Ireland]

Split Split Split :D :D :D

They wont split them until they hit $109. Either way, it's just psychological.

[digitalclips]

You don't have to buy both devices.
There is no prerequisite to purchase media from iTunes.
I get surround sound with my HDMI compatible devices.

I was hoping to hear that, so my current Netgear Router will be able to stream Wi-Fi to my (ordered) Apple TV at full 720p right? No need for the new router. :)

[digitalclips]

You don't have to buy both devices.
There is no prerequisite to purchase media from iTunes.
I get surround sound with my HDMI compatible devices.

Follow up question. If the only HDMI input on the HDTV is already in use, will Component Video and L+R RCA Phono Audio inputs together give the same quality as the HDMI?

[solsun]

I was hoping to hear that, so my current Netgear Router will be able to stream Wi-Fi to my (ordered) Apple TV at full 720p right? No need for the new router. :)


I have my doubts that 720p will stream as expected over a 802.11g network, but please let us know.. Current quality iTunes media may work, but i would think that 720p may require 802.11n to avoid dropout.

[bommai]

Follow up question. If the only HDMI input on the HDTV is already in use, will Component Video and L+R RCA Phono Audio inputs together give the same quality as the HDMI?

You can use the component video output for HD video, and use the optical audio output for audio. Connect the optical audio output to your surround receiver. If you don't have a receiver, then you have to use the L+R analog audio to the TV. You are limited by your setup, not by Apple TV.

[solipsism]

I was hoping to hear that, so my current Netgear Router will be able to stream Wi-Fi to my (ordered) Apple TV at full 720p right? No need for the new router. :)

The AppleTV will pair directly with the Mac, bypassing the router altogether except for access to the movie trailers.

[digitalclips]

The AppleTV will pair directly with the Mac, bypassing the router altogether except for access to the movie trailers.

My base Mac is a Dual G5 Power PC and no WiFi hence the router.

[digitalclips]

You can use the component video output for HD video, and use the optical audio output for audio. Connect the optical audio output to your surround receiver. If you don't have a receiver, then you have to use the L+R analog audio to the TV. You are limited by your setup, not by Apple TV.

I realize 2 HDMIs would be nice (hear that Sony?), but sounds like optical audio and RGB will do the trick. Thanks.

[digitalclips]

I have my doubts that 720p will stream as expected over a 802.11g network, but please let us know.. Current quality iTunes media may work, but i would think that 720p may require 802.11n to avoid dropout.

I kind of suspect this too, I'll post my results as soon as it arrives. I Shoot HD for a living so I am eager to push this baby to the limit. As mentioned in previous post I have a Dual G5 and no WiFi built in so i will need to buy the new base station I think. Hey, no complaints, it's all progress. :)

I was hoping anything on Mac could be squirted over to AppleTV so long as it was a compatible format, such as FCPro etc... but I suspect not.

[solsun]

I realize 2 HDMIs would be nice (hear that Sony?), but sounds like optical audio and RGB will do the trick. Thanks.


Is it an older Sony? My new Sony Bravia 40" XBR2 has 3 HDMI inputs..

http://reviews.cnet.com/Sony_KDL_40XBR2/4505-6482_7-31901205.html?tag=lst

[digitalclips]

Is it an older Sony? My new Sony Bravia 40" XBR2 has 3 HDMI inputs..

Yes, being in the business I grabbed one as soon as they came out to look at my HD camera's output on. Only one HDMI.

[solipsism]

My base Mac is a Dual G5 Power PC and no WiFi hence the router.

In that case, it will connect via Bonjour through the router.... just like when you share your iTunes library.

If I were you, I'd get an external TV tuner to use with that G5. The software can auto-encode for H.264 and then auto-load into iTunes, which will make it available instantly via AppleTV.

You can even load your AVI files into iTunes by letting Quicktime Pro create a reference file as a MOV and then loading the reference file into iTunes.

The only thing you can't do--though I'm sure Elgato will do whatever they can to bring this functionality to you--is watch live TV from your Migilia or EyeTV tuner via your AppleTV. Now that would rock!

[digitalclips]

In that case, it will connect via Bonjour through the router.... just like when you share your iTunes library.

If I were you, I'd get an external TV tuner to use with that G5. The software can auto-encode for H.264 and then auto-load into iTunes, which will make it available instantly via AppleTV.

You can even load your AVI files into iTunes by letting Quicktime Pro create a reference file as a MOV and then loading the reference file into iTunes.

The only thing you can't do--though I'm sure Elgato will do whatever they can to bring this functionality to you--is watch live TV from your Migilia or EyeTV tuner via your AppleTV. Now that would rock!

Fun times ahead experimenting for sure :)

[addabox]

I realize 2 HDMIs would be nice (hear that Sony?), but sounds like optical audio and RGB will do the trick. Thanks.

Or you could get one of these. (http://www.monoprice.com/products/product.asp?c_id=101&cp_id=10110&cs_id=1011002&p_id=2777&seq=1&format=2&style=)

You may not have heard of Monoprice, but I use them all the times for clients with proliferating HDMI devices and only one HDMI input on their display. The slightly pricier ones do auto switching and come with a remote, and they don't degrade the image at all. Also, they're tiny.

[g5man]

Well according to Apple Store the AppleTV is the number one selling item ahead of iPods. This is great news if it keeps up.

[solipsism]

Well according to Apple Store the AppleTV is the number one selling item ahead of iPods. This is great news if it keeps up.

Where do they list that?

[cutemartin]

Incidentally, it might make even more sense in England where I believe they have to pay television licenses for receivers, but the law hasn't caught up to internet-distributed video yet.

The law's a bit "fuzzy" here regarding what constitutes equipment regarding a license. Off-topic but for FYI, the TV license heralds back to the radio license (yeah!!) which was brought in to fund the BBC. At that stage, they had no concept of TV. When TV came in (actually a bit later, cos our government is just as slow as every other) radios became free of the license, but TVs had to pay (although the license is per household, not per TV).

People have tried (and lost) in court saying that they only watched TV through their VCRs, or computers with TV tuners. The court decision was that, in effect, the license was to watch TV, not to watch a particular apparatus. I dont believe anyone has taken the issue of internet TV to court yet, so no-one really knows.

So, don't try to get out of the license fee until someone else has gone through (and won) the expensive legal fight first!!:lol:

But more importantly, when are the BBC going to do put their archive on iTunes? :grumble:

[Booga]

802.11n should be PLENTY of bandwidth for compressed 720p. Wikipedia lists 200Mbps as typical (with 540 max) for 802.11n. For comparison, Blu-Ray can do 1080p and has a maximum throughput of 54Mbps, while the HD DVD spec maxes out at ~37Mbps. Most current cable and satellite HD is at 10-20Mbps.

In fact, 802.11a/g should have enough bandwidth given a good connection and zero other traffic on the line, but given real-life situations I'm not surprised they waited for 802.11n before introducing it.

[digitalclips]

802.11n should be PLENTY of bandwidth for compressed 720p. Wikipedia lists 200Mbps as typical (with 540 max) for 802.11n. For comparison, Blu-Ray can do 1080p and has a maximum throughput of 54Mbps, while the HD DVD spec maxes out at ~37Mbps. Most current cable and satellite HD is at 10-20Mbps.

In fact, 802.11a/g should have enough bandwidth given a good connection and zero other traffic on the line, but given real-life situations I'm not surprised they waited for 802.11n before introducing it.

Well that is good news, thanks, at night I'll pull the plug on the modem and use my g NetGear to stream to my Apple TV :)

[aaarrrgggh]

802.11n should be PLENTY of bandwidth for compressed 720p. Wikipedia lists 200Mbps as typical (with 540 max) for 802.11n.


So why do they give the new AirPort a 10/100 ethernet instead of gigabit? Just a shame when you can actually use it for something now.

[g5man]

Where do they list that?


http://store.apple.com/1-800-MY-APPLE/WebObjects/AppleStore.woa/6464002/wo/mB2k4DpEKUXc2cwzYtRHxEOjpcR/0.0.21.1.0.8.63.0.7.1.0.1.1.1.1.0

[Wiggin]

You don't have to buy both devices.
There is no prerequisite to purchase media from iTunes.
I get surround sound with my HDMI compatible devices.

1. Agree, if your wireless network isn't fast enough to stream that's what he hard drive is for (a 40 GB buffer).
2. Sure, but it will be a pain in the arse to get non-iTS video. You'll have to convert any other video to one of a very limited set of formats AppleTV supports (basically, 5th gen iPod formats plus one higher resolution one). In other words, Apple TV has FAR weaker video playback capabilities than FrontRow has.
3. Yes, HDMI can pass surround sound, but that doesn't mean that's what Apple TV supports. Heck, component video can carry 480i, but Apple TV won't output it. If you read the tech specs (http://www.apple.com/appletv/specs.html), none of the listed audio formats supports surround sound.

I'm sure there will soon be applications that will address #2, and I'm hoping I'm wrong on #3. But unless they messed up the tech specs, you aren't going to get surround sound.

[Booga]

AppleTV supports AAC. The AAC format can handle up to 48 channels of sound in a single stream, so 5.1 is child's play for the format. (Even MP3 can do 5.1 in the MPEG-2 spec as opposed to stereo in the MPEG-1 spec.)

[zigzaglens]

They wont split them until they hit $109.

Either way, it's just psychological.

Sorta like the entire market?

;)