Analyst trims Apple estimates, says Air seeing decreased demand

[AppleInsider]

American Technology Research trimmed its estimates for Mac maker Apple Inc. on Friday, saying that while the company's near term prospects look fine, future quarters may be met by muted demand, particularly for higher-end products like the MacBook Air.

"While we continue to see fairly favorable unit trends in the September quarter with back-to-school, our supply chain checks indicate low visibility in the December and March quarters, which we believe will likely impact build plans," analyst Shaw Wu advised clients in research report.

Based on those findings, Wu said he's decided to once again "err on the conservative side," as he believes tough macroeconomic conditions will lead system builders and distributors to keep their inventory levels low.

"In addition, our supply chain checks indicate a mix shift towards low-end and mid-range Macs as it appears that more affluent consumers may be feeling the effects of a tighter credit environment," he wrote. "MacBook Air sales and build plans appear more modest after more robust levels."

For fiscal 2008, the analyst now estimates Apple to earn $5.29 per share on sales of $32.8 billion, compared to his previous estimate of $5.34 on $32.9 billion. His model for fiscal 2009 now has the company earning $6.15 per share on revenue of $38.8 billion, down from $6.35 on $39.2 billion.

Those estimates factor in changes to his model for the next two quarters: For the current September quarter, Wu expects per share earnings of $1.19 on sales of $8.2 billion, down from $1.24 on $8.3 billion. Revisions to his model for the December holiday quarter have the company earning $1.90 per share on sales of $11.4 billion, down from $1.96 on $11.5 billion.

"We are leaving our Mac assumptions intact at 2.8 million for the September quarter, but lowering our average selling price [estimate] (4 percent quarterly decline vs. our previous view of 2 percent decline) and gross margin assumptions (32.5 percent vs. previous view of 33 percent)," he wrote.

That said, Wu still recommends that investors buy shares of the Cupertino-based electronics maker. He's, however, reduced his 12-month cieling on the company's share price to $205 from $220, which represents 31.5 multiple of his calendar year 2009 earnings estimate of $6.52 per share.

Shares of Apple were trading down $4.25, or 2.78 percent, to 148.40 in afternoon trading on the Nasdaq stock market.[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ] (http://www.appleinsider.com/article.php?id=10070)

[teckstud]

Da Air is da dud.

[merdhead]

Da Air is da dud.
I think that's a bit hard to tell at this point. It may be that everyone who wanted to buy an Air bought one and now things are slipping, or it was doing very well and now things have just returned to a normal pace.

It could be that the market for laptops that are thin but with a larger footprint is not that large. The rest of the market may want a smaller laptop in one or two other dimensions.

If it's doing well Apple may refresh it but leave it be, if not Apple will either kill it off or make a smaller laptop. He's hoping for the last option.

[solipsism]

The Air can use an update to Montevina, but I can't find any machines currently using the 22mm^2 packages. Anyone one know of any or if these aren't shipping yet?

[teckstud]

I think that's a bit hard to tell at this point. It may be that everyone who wanted to buy an Air bought one and now things are slipping, or it was doing very well and now things have just returned to a normal pace.

It could be that the market for laptops that are thin but with a larger footprint is not that large. The rest of the market may want a smaller laptop in one or two other dimensions.

If it's doing well Apple may refresh it but leave it be, if not Apple will either kill it off or make a smaller laptop. He's hoping for the last option.

Me too- smaller and add some ports while your at it.
I would also add that the the Air is usually bought as a secondary computer and that a bad economy is killing anything non-essential.

[SpamSandwich]

More nuggets of wisdom from Wu... funny, those nuggets taste like chicken.

[steviet02]

Da Air is da dud.

I agree.... The consumer market for that type of laptop is so small to begin, this news isn't surprising.

[Lafe]

Me too- smaller and add some ports while your at it.
I would also add that the the Air is usually bought as a secondary computer and that a bad economy is killing anything non-essential.

I'm not just saying this because I love my MBA . . .

I think the "secondary computer" market would naturally slip a bit in this economy -- no doubt.

I also think that the next price drop (especially as flash memory goes down in price) will
attract a wave of "waiting buyers", and things could swing up again for the MBA. I know
several people who would love to have one, but said they'd wait a year or two until
the price came down.

You really can't beat it for travelling, which I do often.

[merdhead]

Me too- smaller and add some ports while your at it.
I would also add that the the Air is usually bought as a secondary computer and that a bad economy is killing anything non-essential.
Maybe they could add ports if they weren't obsessed with tapering at the moment. Apple seems to be on a form-over function kick lately.

Buy they could also use smaller connectors. Surely we can let go the full sized USB plug. So you'd have to buy some more cables or adaptors (or they could include them). I think that'd be a great idea if it meant 2 or 3 USB sockets.

[Lafe]

More nuggets of wisdom from Wu... funny, those nuggets taste like chicken.

Somebody needs to fire that guy. I never see any useful information
when his name is attached to an "analysis". Murky comments about
1Q 2009 . . . huh? Like he knows what Steve has up his sleeve that far
down the road.

[jawporta]

The MacBook Air isn't selling because it's priced $1,100 to much. Think outside the Apple for a second, it uses less material, it has less ports, a slower processor than the MacBook, takes less RAM, can't change the battery and no optical drive? MMMMM should cost less too huh?

MacBook should cost $999 since that was the price of the iBook it replaced, which cost more to make by the way. So the Air should start at $700.

[aaarrrgggh]

I can't imagine the Air being a big part of Apple's Mac unit mix, but I agree that it isn't where the broader market is headed now. The likes of the Eee PC and similar offerings from Dell and others are making better inroads in the "I want another computer that I can travel with" crowd than the Air ever will. That market values style at the high end, but the broader appeal is on cost.

Hope Apple comes to the table soon. These offerings might be priced appropriately, but they aren't pretty and I will miss OSX when I get one...

[solipsism]

The MacBook Air isn't selling because it's priced $1,100 to much. Think outside the Apple for a second, it uses less material, it has less ports, a slower processor than the MacBook, takes less RAM, can't change the battery and no optical drive? MMMMM should cost less too huh?

MacBook should cost $999 since that was the price of the iBook it replaced, which cost more to make by the way. So the Air should start at $700.

Is this a serious post? Since when do smaller, more advanced electronics cost less than larger ones?

[solipsism]

I can't imagine the Air being a big part of Apple's Mac unit mix, but I agree that it isn't where the broader market is headed now. The likes of the Eee PC and similar offerings from Dell and others are making better inroads in the "I want another computer that I can travel with" crowd than the Air ever will. That market values style at the high end, but the broader appeal is on cost.

Hope Apple comes to the table soon. These offerings might be priced appropriately, but they aren't pretty and I will miss OSX when I get one...

These offering use small screen and mini-keyboards. They aren't good for doing any real business work. The MBA is designed for the business man (or woman) on the go. The market is definetly smaller than Apple's other notebook markets, but it's probably larger than we once thought as there are now 3 or 4 other OEMs making these ultra-portables using these advanced SFF CPUs.

A better solution than Eee is the MSI Wind and Mac OS X has been made to work with it.

[merdhead]

Is this a serious post? Since when do smaller, more advanced electronics cost less than larger ones?
Short of the SSD disk drive, what's more advanced in the Air? Don't say the processor, that's an old chip in a different package. The have a smaller motherboard, but that's not more "advanced", rather just a set of choices and trade-offs.

I don't think it should cost $700 though.

[zunx]

We want to puchase the MacBook Air for our University, but no purchase until it has:

- Firewire ports (repairs via Target Disk Mode, video from camcorders, etc).
- True Ethernet port.
- More USB ports.

That easy! Is Apple blind?

[teckstud]

These offering use small screen and mini-keyboards. They aren't good for doing any real business work. The MBA is designed for the business man (or woman) on the go. The market is definetly smaller than Apple's other notebook markets, but it's probably larger than we once thought as there are now 3 or 4 other OEMs making these ultra-portables using these advanced SFF CPUs.

A better solution than Eee is the MSI Wind and Mac OS X has been made to work with it.

???? Say what? A Sony Vaio TZ has an amazing keyboard.
http://www.pocketables.net/2007/09/review-sony-v-2.html

[backtomac]

I think the information on soft MBA demand going forward is interesting.

I suspect this may be due to popularity of the pc netbooks. Apple may need to reconsider the MBAs features and price. I don't know if Apple can just upgrade the cpu, add a larger HDD or SSD every few years and keep the same price points with the MBA.

[solipsism]

Short of the SSD disk drive, what's more advanced in the Air? Don't say the processor, that's an old chip in a different package. The have a smaller motherboard, but that's not more "advanced", rather just a set of choices and trade-offs.

I don't think it should cost $700 though.

The SFF package and low TDP costs more. Just check out Intel's Montevina price list (http://www.intc.com/common/download/download.cfm?companyid=INTC&fileid=226000&filekey=54F2501C-4ACE-4758-94A3-5B95AEBF2411&filename=Sept_7_08_1ku_Price.pdf), They also have to factor in how many of these chips they are going to produce. Less used chips cost more pre unit to manufacturer. If the MBA is so over priced then why are there competitor with exact same screen, CPU, RAM etc charging more than Apple?.
Model. . .Speed . . . FSB . . .L2 . . TDP . .Size. .Price
T9400 . .2.53GHz. . 1066MHz. . 6MB . .35W . .35mm. .$316
SL9400. .1.86GHz . .1066MHz. . 6MB . .17W. . 22mm. .$316

[backtomac]

... If the MBA is so over priced then why are there competitor with exact same screen, CPU, RAM etc charging more than Apple?

The competitors are going to compete against the MBA feature for feature though. They're going to compete by offering netbooks that compete on function (ie, internet browsing and office document work) but at a fraction of the price.

I think Apple could be in a bind here because the netbooks are just so much cheaper. Hell I'm tempted to pick up one of those new Dell ones with linux pre-installed.

[solipsism]

The competitors are going to compete against the MBA feature for feature though. They're going to compete by offering netbooks that compete on function (ie, internet browsing and office document work) but at a fraction of the price.

I think Apple could be in a bind here because the netbooks are just so much cheaper. Hell I'm tempted to pick up one of those new Dell ones with linux pre-installed.

$300 netbooks aren't competing with the MBA. The Lenov X300, VooDoo Envy 133, Sony Viao TZ, and another one I recently heard about but forget the name of is competing with the MBA.

[YTV]

These new netbooks are going to kill the macbook air dead, unless Apple completely redesigns and reprices it, and FAST. I just bought a fully loaded netbook for $350 and sold my macbook air on ebay for $1,400. I never in a million years thought I would buy another windows machine, but this things is everything I want, very light, tons of ports, and above all else, SMALL. Not flat, but SMALL.

[teckstud]

The SFF package and low TDP costs more. Just check out Intel's Montevina price list (http://www.intc.com/common/download/download.cfm?companyid=INTC&fileid=226000&filekey=54F2501C-4ACE-4758-94A3-5B95AEBF2411&filename=Sept_7_08_1ku_Price.pdf), They also have to factor in how many of these chips they are going to produce. Less used chips cost more pre unit to manufacturer. If the MBA is so over priced then why are there competitor with exact same screen, CPU, RAM etc charging more than Apple?.
Model. . .Speed . . . FSB . . .L2 . . TDP . .Size. .Price
T9400 . .2.53GHz. . 1066MHz. . 6MB . .35W . .35mm. .$316
SL9400. .1.86GHz . .1066MHz. . 6MB . .17W. . 22mm. .$316

All of this analysis and blah, blah, blah means nothing if the thing is too big. People want small.

[crocodile]

You people who think the Air isn't selling because of the form factor must be smoking dope. Form factor is the ONE reason why it is still selling at all. Sales of the MacBook Air have softened for four very simple reasons:

1. The hard disk capacity is too small. As soon as you get a 128 Gb (or 256 Gb) hard drive, preferably an SSD, then it will be more viable. I just bough an iMac and with my Music, old PC files and now movies, I've already used up 100 Gbs of disk space. The lack of disk space was the only reason I didn't buy an Air.

2. People are waiting to see what the new MacBooks are like. The market eagerly anticipates new MacBooks and I think many potential MBA buyers are waiting to see what turns up before committing themselves. I suspect that the new 13" MacBook will still be significantly heavier than the Air, so that the Air's practical advantages should ensure that it remains competitive.

3. Chip technology has advanced two generations since he Air was launched. The arrival of Penryn has made the Air look a bit slow. The new ULV Penryn/ Montevina chip announced by Appleinsider (SL9400 1.86 Ghz with a reduced thermal envelope 17 w versus 20 w) should provide a significant performance boost - especially when running video applications - so again many potential buyers are anticipating the Air Rev A and again won't commit until this comes out.

4. Price. Price wasn't a barrier to purchase for most business users who saw the MBA as an ideal on-the-road machine. But realising that its high cost was driven by high memory prices which are rapidly coming down, again many people think it makes sense to wait especially as new higher capacity 1.8' drives have been announced.

Soon the only real difference between the 13" MBA and 13" MacBook will be the form factor and lack of an internal DVD drive. The processing power gap should close significantly. As for more ports, perhaps Apple will offer a proprietary port replicator with three USB 2.0 ports, an Ethernet Port, Firewire and video options? But it means something else to lug around which kind of defeats the object of this machine. I don't think the Air is going to be dropped anytime soon. Fix any of the above variables and the Air instantly becomes more attractive. Fix all of them and you hit the ball out of the park.

What we're really seeing is the effect of very savvy computer buyers surfing the net before parting with their hard-earned cash. There's enough reasonable sensible speculation on future Apple buyers to make people hesitate.

[backtomac]

$300 netbooks aren't competing with the MBA.

I respectfully disagree.

[merdhead]

Someone should tattoo SMALL on Steve and Jon's heads.

But I think Apple might update the Air in two directions: (1) Something smaller with some performance penalty (2) something that looks the similar the current machine but has better performance. And there'll probably be a price drop.

[YTV]

$300 netbooks aren't competing with the MBA.

I completely disagree. In fact these new netbooks are so small, not only are they competing with the macbook air, they are competing with the iphone/ipod touch.

[merdhead]

I respectfully disagree.
I disagree in an entirely disrespectful manner.

The question is portability, so they are direct competitors. Didn't you yourself buy a netbook of some sort in lieu of a MBA?

[merdhead]

I completely disagree. In fact these new netbooks are so small, not only are they competing with the macbook air, they are competing with the iphone/ipod touch.
I think that's going too far, but I'd certainly like to see how far I can take the touch in terms of a general purpose computer.

Without a keyboard and mouse and better performance there is alot the touch cannot do.

[backtomac]

The question is portability, so they are direct competitors.

Yeah that's the way I see it too. Plus they compete based on function and use.

The netbooks and MBA are primarily and almost exclusively used for working with office documents, browsing the net and email. The limited ports on the MBA indicates to me that Apple had this in mind when they designed it.

Netbooks can easily be bought for $400 while the MBA is $1800. That's too much price disparity. While there may be room for the MBA to come down in price I"m not sure it'll ever get under $1000.

No I don't have a Netbook but they are very tempting.

[Bregalad]

So called stock analysts are looking more and more like manipulators to me. They rarely seem to say anything that isn't blatantly obvious or highly suspicious and yet the mere act of opening their mouths can drive a stock several percentage points up or down. The market demonstrates little common sense and small investors are simply taken for a ride, like a rubber duck dumped in the ocean.

[bluedalmatian]

Ive always classed the MBA in the same league as the Cube and the Burton Snow Jacket.

One of Steves gimmicks rather than a real product.

[solipsism]

1. The hard disk capacity is too small. As soon as you get a 128 Gb (or 256 Gb) hard drive, preferably an SSD, then it will be more viable. I just bough an iMac and with my Music, old PC files and now movies, I've already used up 100 Gbs of disk space. The lack of disk space was the only reason I didn't buy an Air.
1) If you are talking Base-2 increases then 128GB and 256GB would have to be SSD.

2) The next MBA will have the same 120GB HDD than the iPod Classic now has.

3) I'd wager that Apple will use Intel's SSD when they become available. The MBA would be a great place to promote Intel's new drives before production fully ramps up. They will come in 80 and 160GB sizes.

4) So you were torn between a ultra-portable and desktop? It doesn't sound like you are the target consumer for this machine.

2. People are waiting to see what the new MacBooks are like. The market eagerly anticipates new MacBooks and I think many potential MBA buyers are waiting to see what turns up before committing themselves. I suspect that the new 13" MacBook will still be significantly heavier than the Air, so that the Air's practical advantages should ensure that it remains competitive.
The MB is 5.4lbs and the MBP os 5.0lbs. There isn't much Apple can do to shed weight from the device outside of removing the optical drive (which I don't see happening on the MB) and reducing the battery size. Polycarb isn't heavy, but it does have to be thicker than aluminum so they can lose some weight there. I think it'll still be a good 2lbs more than the MBA.


3. Chip technology has advanced two generations since he Air was launched. The arrival of Penryn has made the Air look a bI it slow. The new ULV Penryn/ Montevina chip (announced for the MBA on this site) should provide a significant performance boost - especially when running video applications - so again many potential buyers are anticipating the Air Rev A and again won't commit until this comes out.
No, it hasn't. The 22mm Montevina/Penryn is the chip-over-chip successor to the 22mm Santa Rosa/Merom that is currently used. The chips will stay at 1.6 and 1.8xGHz, but the L2 and FSB are increased, with a lower TDP. GPU performance is better with a slightly lower TDP.

4. Price. Price wasn't a barrier to purchase for most business users who saw the MBA as an ideal on-the-road machine. But realising that its high cost was driven by high memory prices which are rapidly coming down, again many people think it makes sense to wait.
If by memory, you mean SSD, then Intel entering the game is going to make things better, but it's still expensive.

The processing power gap should close significantly.
The MB will be getting faster chips with a lower cost. That won't change, but the speeds of these notebooks may be fast enough to suit many people's basic needs.

As for more ports, perhaps Apple will offer a proprietary port replicator with three USB 2.) ports, an Ethernet Port, Firewire and video options? But it means something else to lug around which kind of defeats the object of this machine.
VooDoo's Envy 133 had the ingenious idea of putting the Ethernet port into the power supply. From there the power supply transmits an 802.11b signal that the Envy 133 or any other notebook you wish to connect can access. This is great for hotels that only have Ethernet, which seems to be more common with expensive hotels where a business exec would probably be staying when carting his high-end ultra-portable. Apple's Airport Express already has a lot of these features, but with 802.11n in it. I wonder if Apple can adopt this, plus some other options to make the MBA more viable.

[solipsism]

I completely disagree. In fact these new netbooks are so small, not only are they competing with the macbook air, they are competing with the iphone/ipod touch.

I disagree in an entirely disrespectful manner.

The question is portability, so they are direct competitors. Didn't you yourself buy a netbook of some sort in lieu of a MBA?

You can't really beleive that the same people who need a full size keyboard and decent size screen for work are going to be able to any real work on MID or shruken netbook.
http://www.myce101.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/intel-asus_eee_pc-show.jpg
http://sleekgadgets.files.wordpress.com/2006/11/sony-mylo-hands.jpg
http://www.k-state.edu/infotech/news/tuesday/archive/2008/02-12macbookAir1.jpg

Only one of these is usable for an 8 hour work day.

[teckstud]

Obviously some can't undertsand that smaller is the thing - that's why they take up so much room with thread posts. :lol:

[teckstud]

Only one of these is usable for an 8 hour work day.

Only one's not selling also.:no:
Too big.
And you're ony selecting what you want to compare it to. There are so many others - and better than what you present.

[merdhead]

You can't really beleive that the same people who need a full size keyboard and decent size screen for work are going to be able to any real work on MID or shruken netbook.
Only one of these is usable for an 8 hour work day.
So did you buy a netbook instead of a MBA? Obviously Some people don't think the keyboard is a problem.

[YTV]

You can't really beleive that the same people who need a full size keyboard and decent size screen for work are going to be able to any real work on MID or shruken netbook.


Only one of these is usable for an 8 hour work day.

Ok, then you can't really believe that the HUGE market that wants an ultra-portable laptop, really ever viewed the macbook air as a viable option. Sure a ton of us went out and bought it as we love macs, and we wanted something smaller than the macbook. Heck I bought one, but never sold my Lenovo X61 as it was just smaller and easier to carry around. I would use my macbook air while "couch-surfing" but thats about it. It just falls short in so many areas, the main one being small. That is what the ultraportable market wants. A SMALL laptop.

My macbook air is gone so now is my Lenovo X61.

If Apple comes out with a notebook/netbook. That has a 9 or 10 inch screen, has the Atom processor, or some deviation of, where the ram and hard drive can easily be swapped, and has a user swappable battery, running OS X. I will gladly pay DOUBLE what the other netbooks cost.

You can mark my words, the macbook air will be dead completely in 1 year if Apple continues it in its current form. I am so confident I will give anyone 5 to 1 odds, with a $1,000 minimum on my end.

Its usually Apple that bursts on the scene with this hot new product, but I think they really got blindsided here. As the numbers keep stacking up through the holiday, Im sure Apple will see the mistake they made.

[Xian Zhu Xuande]

... because the Macbook Air is completely relevant to the success of Apple Inc.

Yeah, right...

I would still love to have one, though, if I required a computer on the go.

[Powelligator]

I'm *exactly* the market the MBA was aimed at, yet as it currently is, I can't use it.

I'm in airplanes, customer sites and hotel rooms 200+ days per year. The form factor of the MBA is great - smaller is better when it comes to going through an airport security line. I could care less about what kind of processor it has because all I need to do is e-mail, PowerPoint, surf the web, play some music out of iTunes and save a few photos. Price is no problem for me because the company buys my equipment. The deal-breaker for me? Hard disk space. 80 GB is simply *way too small*. I ran out of space on an 80 GB drive long ago, I require at least a 160 GB drive. Heck, my iTunes library is 60 GB alone.

I heard way back at the MBA's introduction that a larger hard drive would have had to have a 3 millimeter thicker case to accommodate the 160 that the iPod was using. I'd gladly have lugged around a 3 mm thicker MBA for some decent disk space.

The thing a lot of people don't get when comparing the MBA to those other manufacturer's machines - it's a Mac, there really is no comparison. The only competition the MBA has (as far as I'm concerned) is the 15" MBP. And the MBP has all this crud that I don't need - optical drive, ports o' plenty, etc. Just give me some more freakin' disk space, Apple, OK!

There, I feel much better. Thanks for putting up with me.

Joe

[merdhead]

You can mark my words, the macbook air will be dead completely in 1 year if Apple continues it in its current form. I am so confident I will give anyone 5 to 1 odds, with a $1,000 minimum on my end.
I'll take those odds. Where so I sign up?

[S10]

I can only speak for myself, something most people here don't do... they speak for others...
anyway For me the Air is just perfect. I have a big workstation and always had a smaller portable mac to email/surf web.. open some docs... nothing fancy... The Air does this just beautifully... and is also small and light and has a backlit keyboard. Just perfect.

[solipsism]

So did you buy a netbook instead of a MBA? Obviously Some people don't think the keyboard is a problem.
I will be getting an MSI Wind before I travel early next year, if something else doesn't come out that will run OS X. I will be backpacking so ultra-portable (not just ultralight) will help for shoving it in my ruck sack. But I also don't want a super expensive machine that I'll be throwing around, will need to put into a Ziplock bag, and will being doing very little typing. Different machine for different needs.

Also you can't get 8 hours out of the MBA.
I didn't say 8 hours on one charge, I said it's only one you can comfortably use in an 8 hour work day. How many people are going to travel to satellite office and use a handheld or cramped mini-keyboard for an 8 hour work day. The fact that you took '8-hour work day" to mean a single battery charge shows that you aren't looking at it objectively. ONE SIZE DOES NOT FIT ALL!


Ok, then you can't really believe that the HUGE market that wants an ultra-portable laptop, really ever viewed the macbook air as a viable option.
You et al. are the ones saying that the HUGE market for a cheap ultra-portable is the same market for the MBA. Just likes Macs to cheap PC, Apple doesn't have to sell nearly as many to make a profit. This is why others are following Apple almost in prefect step to create their own ultra-lightweight notebook with a 13" display and full size keyboard.

Sure a ton of us went out and bought it as we love macs, and we wanted something smaller than the macbook. Heck I bought one, but never sold my Lenovo X61 as it was just smaller and easier to carry around. I would use my macbook air while "couch-surfing" but thats about it. It just falls short in so many areas, the main one being small. That is what the ultraportable market wants. A SMALL laptop
You bought it because you love Macs, not because it fit your needs. Check out AnandTechs reviews of the MBA. Anand has had more ultra-portable computers than any other reviewer I've read so you can get a basic idea as to the market these things are for.

[/QUOTE]My macbook air is gone so now is my Lenovo X61.[/QUOTE]
That is anecdotal. "It didn't fit your needs, so it can't possibly fit anyone else's" is not a good argument for business.

You can mark my words, the macbook air will be dead completely in 1 year if Apple continues it in its current form. I am so confident I will give anyone 5 to 1 odds, with a $1,000 minimum on my end.
Define "current form". The Mac Mini has been complained about since day one. It's not easily upgradable, has no expansion for a desktop, it uses the more expensive mobile technology in a desktop machine, and hasn't been updated in a year. But it's still around, so why do you think that a machine that was besting more powerful, less expensive machines on Apple and Amazon's sites is going to be defunct in a year?

[echosonic]

More nuggets of wisdom from Wu... funny, those nuggets taste like chicken.

Wu is poo.

[solipsism]

The deal-breaker for me? Hard disk space. 80 GB is simply *way too small*. I ran out of space on an 80 GB drive long ago, I require at least a 160 GB drive. Heck, my iTunes library is 60 GB alone.

I heard way back at the MBA's introduction that a larger hard drive would have had to have a 3 millimeter thicker case to accommodate the 160 that the iPod was using. I'd gladly have lugged around a 3 mm thicker MBA for some decent disk space.
You're in luck, the update will bring a 120GB HDD standard, and within 6 months you'll see a 160GB SSD for an estimated $1000 more.

The main deal breaker for me is the low yield battery combined with the lack of a removable battery. I don't mind the fixed battery, but I better get at least 8 hour if you are going to do that. Now there are other options that will run OS X when I'm away so the MBA isn't even in a consideration anymore.

[Fast Fred 1]

I completely disagree. In fact these new netbooks are so small, not only are they competing with the macbook air, they are competing with the iphone/ipod touch.
Great, I can't wait to put one in my arm band, and go jogging.

[wizard69]

Really the next thing you will see is the resale price on used AIR's dropping like a rock. The gullible have already been taken those looking for a functional mini laptop will go else where. Between the reliability problems that have become evident and the less than well thought out selection of I/O ports could one expect anything less than collapsing sales?

Don't get me wrong the AIR is a nice idea that was very poorly executed. Apple could pull it back to respectability with an update but honestly they would be better off reworking the MacBook line up to take over the segment that is interested in AIR.

Dave

[solipsism]

Great, I can't wait to put one in my arm band, and go jogging.
:lol:

[merdhead]

I will be getting an MSI Wind before I travel early next year, if something else doesn't come out that will run OS X. I will be backpacking so ultra-portable (not just ultralight) will help for shoving it in my ruck sack. But I also don't want a super expensive machine that I'll be throwing around, will need to put into a Ziplock bag, and will being doing very little typing. Different machine for different needs.


I didn't say 8 hours on one charge, I said it's only one you can comfortably use in an 8 hour work day. How many people are going to travel to satellite office and use a handheld or cramped mini-keyboard for an 8 hour work day. The fact that you took '8-hour work day" to mean a single battery charge shows that you aren't looking at it objectively. ONE SIZE DOES NOT FIT ALL!



You et al. are the ones saying that the HUGE market for a cheap ultra-portable is the same market for the MBA. Just likes Macs to cheap PC, Apple doesn't have to sell nearly as many to make a profit. This is why others are following Apple almost in prefect step to create their own ultra-lightweight notebook with a 13" display and full size keyboard.


You bought it because you love Macs, not because it fit your needs. Check out AnandTechs reviews of the MBA. Anand has had more ultra-portable computers than any other reviewer I've read so you can get a basic idea as to the market these things are for.


I don't get it - where do you stand on the MBA? I think smaller is everything. So do you since you're buying a smaller machine. Price is neither here nor there - stiff shit if you can't afford it in my book. Value is a different question. The MBA is overpriced but that is par for the course for Apple, they like to err on the high side because it's worse to raise your prices than lower.

The question how what will do for a full day's work is really very subjective and depends on your job, but portability is much easier to call: smaller is better.

I'm not sure how you go from me thinking you meant battery power to not being objective. That's a pretty large leap of logic. But I can say you sound pretty defensive. Why do you feel the need to attack, why don't you argue the point instead of getting all ad hominem?

I think Apple will make something smaller. There is a gap between the Air and your average netbook. Apple would be wise to make something a little larger than a netbook put with more power than a netbook, something between them and an Air. They could claim the higher ground on performance and usability while stretching the smallness factor (probably will involve tapering).

[Fast Fred 1]

You can't really beleive that the same people who need a full size keyboard and decent size screen for work are going to be able to any real work on MID or shruken netbook.
http://www.myce101.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/intel-asus_eee_pc-show.jpg
http://sleekgadgets.files.wordpress.com/2006/11/sony-mylo-hands.jpg
http://www.k-state.edu/infotech/news/tuesday/archive/2008/02-12macbookAir1.jpg

Only one of these is usable for an 8 hour work day.
Well at least one of the gadget's has a nice looking attachment.
Wonder if it thinks smaller is better?

[merdhead]

Really the next thing you will see is the resale price on used AIR's dropping like a rock. The gullible have already been taken those looking for a functional mini laptop will go else where. Between the reliability problems that have become evident and the less than well thought out selection of I/O ports could one expect anything less than collapsing sales?

Don't get me wrong the AIR is a nice idea that was very poorly executed. Apple could pull it back to respectability with an update but honestly they would be better off reworking the MacBook line up to take over the segment that is interested in AIR.

Dave
I think you should wait until there is something more than analyst speculation before you claim victory. Also Apple doesn't drop prices "like a rock" they just cancel the product.

[solipsism]

I don't get it - where do you stand on the MBA? I think smaller is everything. So do you since you're buying a smaller machine. Price is neither here nor there - stiff shit if you can't afford it in my book. Value is a different question. The MBA is overpriced but that is par for the course for Apple, they like to err on the high side because it's worse to raise your prices than lower....


If smaller is everything then you aren't being objective. A smaller keyboard is harder to type on. A smaller screen displays less info. A smaller HDD holds less data. A smaller battery dues faster. How can one size fit all?

I don't know how you don't know where I stand as I've stated it many times. Not being the market for a device does not mean the market doesn't exist. The MBA is designed as a hybrid being a fully-functional business-class notebook and being very portable yet performs as well as a yet old MB. CPU issues in the MBA aside, because that is a separate issue that goes against Apple and/or Intel's HW or SW design, you can't compare $300 netbook to the MBA and say it's overpriced. That isn't objective in any way shape or form. A netbook with a newly released Atom running at 1.6GHz cost $29 while a C2D SFF Monetvina/Penryn running at 1.6GHz will cost $284. The processor alone costs almost as much as an Eec PC.

[merdhead]

If smaller is everything then you aren't being objective. A smaller keyboard is harder to type on. A smaller screen displays less info. A smaller HDD holds less data. A smaller battery dues faster. How can one size fit all?

I don't know how you don't know where I stand as I've stated it many times. Not being the market for a device does not mean the market doesn't exist. The MBA is designed as a hybrid being a fully-functional business-class notebook and being very portable yet performs as well as a yet old MB. CPU issues in the MBA aside, because that is a separate issue that goes against Apple and/or Intel's HW or SW design, you can't compare $300 netbook to the MBA and say it's overpriced. That isn't objective in any way shape or form. A netbook with a newly released Atom running at 1.6GHz cost $29 while a C2D SFF Monetvina/Penryn running at 1.6GHz will cost $284. The processor alone costs almost as much as an Eec PC.
I'm not saying one size fits all, I'm saying that something that is smaller is more portable. Everything is a trade off and some people will find smaller keyboard acceptable, but the point of a laptop is portability.

You need to study the concept of objectivity. The statement "The MBA is designed as a hybrid being a fully-functional business-class notebook and being very portable yet performs as well as a yet old MB." is full of value judgements and cannot be objective. Saying something is more portable if it is smaller is a statement of logical fact as is saying that a laptop is designed to be portable.

I didn't say the MBA was overpriced relative to a netbook I said it was overpriced for what it was, that it was poor value.

[solipsism]

I'm not saying one size fits all, I'm saying that something that is smaller is more portable. Everything is a trade off and some people will find smaller keyboard acceptable, but the point of a laptop is portability.
You are arguing that a smaller footprint on the MBA would still mean it could be as useful even with a small screen and keyboard. You might be willing to sacrifice full size keys because you have small hands or don't type much or some other reason, but there are plenty of people who type all day and don't want a half size keys and an 8" display to do important work on. To change that aspect would change the market it's aimed for. Netbooks have their purpose, but they are not designed for that.

[JeffDM]

The comparisons between the netbook and the air seem to miss a few things. The current netbooks have about 1/4th the processing power as the Air and some models have about as much storage as I have on my camcorder's SDHC cards. The Atom processors do not have anywhere near the performance as the chip that's in the Air, which is a lower power consuming version of the standard notebook chip, not a chip that's pretending to be a competitor to ARM.

I'm not getting either kind of as I do like to watch DVDs.

[captaincore]

The comparisons between the netbook and the air seem to miss a few things. The current netbooks have about 1/4th the processing power as the Air and some models have about as much storage as I have on my camcorder's SDHC cards. The Atom processors do not have anywhere near the performance as the chip that's in the Air, which is a lower power consuming version of the standard notebook chip, not a chip that's pretending to be a competitor to ARM.

I'm not getting either kind of as I do like to watch DVDs.

you can get an external superdrive for that :)

[aplnub]

I'm *exactly* the market the MBA was aimed at, yet as it currently is, I can't use it.

I'm in airplanes, customer sites and hotel rooms 200+ days per year. The form factor of the MBA is great - smaller is better when it comes to going through an airport security line. I could care less about what kind of processor it has because all I need to do is e-mail, PowerPoint, surf the web, play some music out of iTunes and save a few photos. Price is no problem for me because the company buys my equipment. The deal-breaker for me? Hard disk space. 80 GB is simply *way too small*. I ran out of space on an 80 GB drive long ago, I require at least a 160 GB drive. Heck, my iTunes library is 60 GB alone.

I heard way back at the MBA's introduction that a larger hard drive would have had to have a 3 millimeter thicker case to accommodate the 160 that the iPod was using. I'd gladly have lugged around a 3 mm thicker MBA for some decent disk space.

The thing a lot of people don't get when comparing the MBA to those other manufacturer's machines - it's a Mac, there really is no comparison. The only competition the MBA has (as far as I'm concerned) is the 15" MBP. And the MBP has all this crud that I don't need - optical drive, ports o' plenty, etc. Just give me some more freakin' disk space, Apple, OK!

There, I feel much better. Thanks for putting up with me.

Joe

I fly quite a bit too. Here is the problem with the MacBook Air or should I say what Apple should have built. The MBA foot print is too big.

A sub-notebook form (footprint must be small!), thin, removable battery or a very long battery life of 16+ hours of use with the screen one notch above no backlight. I would sacrifice speed and gpu power to obtain those goals. Do that, and you have a winner no matter what it comes with or doesn't come with.

[aplnub]

You are arguing that a smaller footprint on the MBA would still mean it could be as useful even with a small screen and keyboard. You might be willing to sacrifice full size keys because you have small hands or don't type much or some other reason, but there are plenty of people who type all day and don't want a half size keys and an 8" display to do important work on. To change that aspect would change the market it's aimed for. Netbooks have their purpose, but they are not designed for that.

Look at the MBA. The trackpad is as big as the screen. I agree as I stated above, A smaller footprint and they have plenty of places to take it from starting with that football field below the keyboard.

[ouragan]

That said, Wu still recommends that investors buy shares of the Cupertino-based electronics maker. He's, however, reduced his 12-month ceiling on the company's share price to $205 from $220, which represents 31.5 multiple of his calendar year 2009 earnings estimate of $6.52 per share.


Shaw Wu's estimates are priced for perfection, 31.5 times the amount of calendar year 2009 earnings estimate. Can anything go wrong? Sure! To name just a few:

1) An economic slowdown with fewer jobs, higher interest rates, higher gas and heating costs, falling value of mortgaged homes, and credit restrictions for home buyers in a declining market;

2) Macs are $300 to $500 too expensive when compared with Windows and Ubuntu Linux computers;

3) iPhones come with a prohibitively expensive cell phone service contract, thanks to rumored royalty payments to Apple;

4) Steve Jobs' health is not improving. He looks like my 69 year old father 2 months before his death from cancer. And neither Steve Jobs, nor Apple, nor any member of the Apple board of directors will come on record with a public statement on Steve Jobs' health and cancer survival prospects, the reason being that they don't want to be sued for damages should Steve Jobs die from cancer in the coming year.

It's sad to say, but Steve Jobs seems to have decided that he would die on the job.

:???::???::???:

[wizard69]

Is this a serious post? Since when do smaller, more advanced electronics cost less than larger ones?

Look at the component make up of AIR and convince me there is anything advanced in that machine beyond the processor packaging. The pricing on AIR is a massive joke.

Dave

[solipsism]

Macs are $300 to $500 too expensive when compared with Windows and Ubuntu Linux computers;
Again with this BS. You find me one Windows or Ubuntu Linux computer that is $300 cheaper than the an equivalent Mac.

iPhones come with a prohibitively expensive cell phone service contract, thanks to rumored royalty payments to Apple
Starting a rumour doesn't make it true. The iPhone is no more expensive than any other smartphone on AT&T plan, and the data package is on par with other US carriers.

Steve Jobs' health is not improving. He looks like my 69 year old father 2 months before his death from cancer. And neither Steve Jobs, nor Apple, nor any member of the Apple board of directors will come on record with a public statement on Steve Jobs' health and cancer survival prospects, the reason being that they don't want to be sued for damages should Steve Jobs die from cancer in the coming year.
The US has a 72yo running for President of the US and you're biggest concern is with a 53yo CEO of a company. You act as if he's an old man who can't run the company and assume that no one else has been groomed to take over as CEO.

[solipsism]

Look at the component make up of AIR and convince me there is anything advanced in that machine beyond the processor packaging. The pricing on AIR is a massive joke.

Dave

Then why don't you convince us that it's a $700 notebook by breaking down the parts and R&D. Since we don't have actual prices on the chip packaging, go ahead and use $284 for the new chip at that speed and package, which is bound to be cheaper than what is in there right now.

[wizard69]

I think you should wait until there is something more than analyst speculation before you claim victory. Also Apple doesn't drop prices "like a rock" they just cancel the product.

Oh you must mean how the canceled iPhone 1 before dropping the price. ;)

In this case though I do believe they will cancel the product soon. They will do this to limit their exposure to warranty issues and law suits. It may or may not get replaced with an updated unit.

The funny thing with AiR is that it from all appearnces does have hardware issues worthy of pursuit. IPhone 3G on the other hand is pretty solid hardware wise but people sue over it's performance for no validated reason.

I don't mean to sound like an a$$ either but AIR is a very limited machine and debuted when smaller more capable machines hit the market. It as a computing device certainly has it's niche but that niche isn't big enough to justfy production. It is like the Cube in many ways.

By the way I believe AIR is saveable as a platform. To do that though Apple needs to leap over a few hurdles. One is processor performance, AIR needs to be able to consitantly run it's processor at full speed. The second issue is I/O which has already been exponded upon.

Dave

[backtomac]

I think that after SL is released the MBA will move to a cheaper dual core Atom chip and the price will drop below $1000.

[teckstud]

Ok, then you can't really believe that the HUGE market that wants an ultra-portable laptop, really ever viewed the macbook air as a viable option. Sure a ton of us went out and bought it as we love macs, and we wanted something smaller than the macbook. Heck I bought one, but never sold my Lenovo X61 as it was just smaller and easier to carry around. I would use my macbook air while "couch-surfing" but thats about it. It just falls short in so many areas, the main one being small. That is what the ultraportable market wants. A SMALL laptop.

My macbook air is gone so now is my Lenovo X61.

If Apple comes out with a notebook/netbook. That has a 9 or 10 inch screen, has the Atom processor, or some deviation of, where the ram and hard drive can easily be swapped, and has a user swappable battery, running OS X. I will gladly pay DOUBLE what the other netbooks cost.

You can mark my words, the macbook air will be dead completely in 1 year if Apple continues it in its current form. I am so confident I will give anyone 5 to 1 odds, with a $1,000 minimum on my end.

Its usually Apple that bursts on the scene with this hot new product, but I think they really got blindsided here. As the numbers keep stacking up through the holiday, Im sure Apple will see the mistake they made.

You've hit on some really good points. I've always believed that Apple's R&D 2 years ago should have gone in to exactly that- an utra small portable without the phone. The phone industry is so fickle and all we've heard is complaints of the call quality, etc, etc, etc. Apple could have been leading in this department and instead will be following it. The iPod Touch is cool but a fraction of all that I want. Hopefully one will be coming out this fall and/or at least by MacWorld Jan. If not I may be forced to buy a Sony Vaio TZ and not have the Apple OS. I want something small and full functioned not a cafeteria- sized tray that's impaired.

[solipsism]

I think that after SL is released the MBA will move to a cheaper dual core Atom chip and the price will drop below $1000.

The processors in the is only around $284 and $316, while the fastest Atom chips are $70 and $135. Coincidently, the Atom chips are the same respective speeds as the current Air, but the drop in performance would make it incredibly slow. This would be a very costly change and completely alter the market it's aimed at. There is plenty of room for Apple to keep the MBA at the top end of an ultra-lightweight notebook and have a UMPC for a tablet Mac using Atom. They don't have to destroy one to make the other.

[teckstud]

The US has a 72yo running for President of the US and you're biggest concern is with a 53yo CEO of a company. You act as if he's an old man who can't run the company and assume that no one else has been groomed to take over as CEO.

That's a F*#k up comparison.
John MacCain looks robust and healthy. His mother is 96 and could run rings around most 60 year olds I've ever met. SJobs on the other hand and sorry to say this- does not. Big difference. He's not looking healthy to say it kindly.
My point is age does not make a difference and is relative and those remarks are age discriminatory.

[success]

It was a failure from the start. There is only so big people are willing to go without an optical drive and stuff. If it doesn't have the extras like an optical drive then people expect and want it to be mini sized like the gadgets above. If it is going to be as big as the MBA (which is still essentially as big as a PowerBook/MacBook), then people expect it to come with everything you need for an "8 hour work day". An 8 hour work day for many is not just sitting behind a desk for 8 hours and opening Word files and exchanging emails :rolleyes:

What does it have to offer besides being a bit slimmer? Nothing really. Oh wait. It is prohibitively expensive. Actually that I AM RICH iPhone application would've been perfect for the MBA.


.

[teckstud]

http://www.k-state.edu/infotech/news/tuesday/archive/2008/02-12macbookAir1.jpg



Are you trying to balance a cafeteria tray in your hand or catching light for your solar panel?

[teckstud]

Well at least one of the gadget's has a nice looking attachment.
Wonder if it thinks smaller is better?

SSSSSssssssss- luv it! 8-)

[solipsism]

Current MBA's at least $300 off on Apple's refurb site. This could mean the end of the MBA </sarcasm>• http://store.apple.com/1-800-MY-APPLE/WebObjects/AppleStore.woa/wa/RSLID?mco=44BD9AA1&AID=10479833&PID=404255&nclm=CertifiedMac

[PeterR]

I've always believed that Apple's R&D 2 years ago should have gone in to exactly that- an utra small portable without the phone. The phone industry is so fickle and all we've heard is complaints of the call quality, etc, etc, etc. Apple could have been leading in this department and instead will be following it. The iPod Touch is cool but a fraction of all that I want. Hopefully one will be coming out this fall and/or at least by MacWorld Jan. If not I may be forced to buy a Sony Vaio TZ and not have the Apple OS. I want something small and full functioned not a cafeteria- sized tray that's impaired.

I guess the Air suffers from being a bleeding edge machine that is 200 days old. It will probably just converge with the MacBook (as MacBooks get thinner) which would be a very cool thing.

But a MacBook Mini would be a better business case for a third laptop. $500 Apple tax is a lot to wear on a laptop. $200 Apple tax is not a lot on a super portable. A mini laptop won't cannibalize laptop / desktop sales (since you still need a real computer) and iPhones would still sell (since they are portable). The market would be business travelers, students, etc.

Also, some workers (programmers and scientists, or graphic designers who are forced to work in a Windows shop) like to take their MacBook in to work, and plug it into work monitor / keyboards . A smaller macbook would make this a lot more viable.

[grayum]

I'm with you Joe, also a perfect MBA customer. I use mine for emails, surfing, KEYNOTE (none of that Powerpoint crap), MSN and charging my iPhone from time-to-time. I travel a lot within the city, and overseas so its the perfect fit. I have a desktop for the large stuff!

I agree to what most are saying, its a niche market need that Apple play in very well indeed.

Bloody analysts......

[parky]

Short of the SSD disk drive, what's more advanced in the Air? Don't say the processor, that's an old chip in a different package. The have a smaller motherboard, but that's not more "advanced", rather just a set of choices and trade-offs.

I don't think it should cost $700 though.

You are 100% wrong. It is custom chip made specifically for the MBA.

[steviet02]

You are 100% wrong. It is custom chip made specifically for the MBA.


Technically, it's an 'old' processor in a custom package.

[backtomac]

The processors in the is only around $284 and $316, while the fastest Atom chips are $70 and $135. Coincidently, the Atom chips are the same respective speeds as the current Air, but the drop in performance would make it incredibly slow. This would be a very costly change and completely alter the market it's aimed at. There is plenty of room for Apple to keep the MBA at the top end of an ultra-lightweight notebook and have a UMPC for a tablet Mac using Atom. They don't have to destroy one to make the other.

If SL improves system performance then overall feel might not be that bad.

The cost savings might be $200. That's nothing to sneeze at. Admittedly they still have a ways to go to get it under $1000.

Dual core atom netbooks will only undercut MBA sales even more. The product needs repositioning IMO.

[spacevator]

oh my god already Apple! Would ya just make a SMALLER laptop or a larger iPod Touch or both ALREADY! Obviously there has been a BIG ENOUGH market for this since the end of the 12" iBooks and Powerbooks! One size does not fit all needs just as one chromatic Nano doesn't fit all color tastes. As Apple fans, we've been hearing Apple should make a netbook size device or a mini-tablet (look at the Archos 5!) for way too long now. Just do it already Apple...It's really not rocket science.

Why doesn't the iPod Touch come in different screen sizes (that a whole web page fits on) and could still fit in a pocket? (Nokia N810, Archos 5 60G) I wrote this on my MBA which is nice but still too big!

[spacevator]

Again with this BS. You find me one Windows or Ubuntu Linux computer that is $300 cheaper than the an equivalent Mac.


Starting a rumour doesn't make it true. The iPhone is no more expensive than any other smartphone on AT&T plan, and the data package is on par with other US carriers.


The US has a 72yo running for President of the US and you're biggest concern is with a 53yo CEO of a company. You act as if he's an old man who can't run the company and assume that no one else has been groomed to take over as CEO.

Or maybe a 40-something spoiled over taxing marxist running for Prez. This is about Apple..let's stay on topic!

[teckstud]

oh my god already Apple! Would ya just make a SMALLER laptop or a larger iPod Touch or both ALREADY! Obviously there has been a BIG ENOUGH market for this since the end of the 12" iBooks and Powerbooks! One size does not fit all needs just as one chromatic Nano doesn't fit all color tastes. As Apple fans, we've been hearing Apple should make a netbook size device or a mini-tablet (look at the Archos 5!) for way too long now. Just do it already Apple...It's really not rocket science.



Amen.
We want an ultra-portable not just a portable.

[S10]

Or maybe a 40-something spoiled over taxing marxist running for Prez. This is about Apple..let's stay on topic!

With an ignorant comment like that, nobody, including John McCain, would take anything you say serious.

[Kolchak]

The comparisons between the netbook and the air seem to miss a few things. The current netbooks have about 1/4th the processing power as the Air and some models have about as much storage as I have on my camcorder's SDHC cards. The Atom processors do not have anywhere near the performance as the chip that's in the Air, which is a lower power consuming version of the standard notebook chip, not a chip that's pretending to be a competitor to ARM.

I'm not getting either kind of as I do like to watch DVDs.

"Lower power," perhaps, but still not low enough. I still want all-day usage. As for DVDs, talk about being stuck in 2000. I can throw a DVD in my desktop Mac and have a 700MB Xvid movie file in less than an hour (two-pass encoding; halve that if you're satisifed with single pass) or a higher resolution two-pass H.264 file in less than two hours. Toss five of those movie files on a 4GB thumb drive and you've done away with the power-hungry DVD drive eating up battery life all through the movie. And a darn sight easier to carry around than five DVDs in their keepcases, too.

You are arguing that a smaller footprint on the MBA would still mean it could be as useful even with a small screen and keyboard. You might be willing to sacrifice full size keys because you have small hands or don't type much or some other reason, but there are plenty of people who type all day and don't want a half size keys and an 8" display to do important work on.

Is there any reason why heavy typists couldn't just plug in a USB keyboard when they get to work? Nobody works "all day" on the train or the bus or even the nearest Starbucks. The heavy work goes on at either end of the commute, where presumably users could keep USB or even wireless keyboards on their desks. Why lug around a full-size keyboard all the time when you only need it some of the time? The same goes for adding larger, external screens, which every laptop I know of nowadays can use. If the work is really that important or intense, I'd rather plug in a 20" LCD instead of using even a 13" built-in display. Also, heavy typists are more liable to prefer split or otherwise curved ergonomic keyboards with good key feel and travel over the "full size" but straight, limited travel (and lacking real cursor and numeric keypads) keyboards on laptops.

Edit: Apple should leapfrog every other netbook/tablet maker by creating a MagSafe dock that not only charges the battery, but provides additional ports for external screen, USB, Firewire, etc. No need to wrestle with separate cables or align multiple connectors. A single wide MagSafe connector with 50-100 contacts could still be more compact than all those discrete connectors. Just drop it in the dock and let the magnets and contacts do the work. Can't get any simpler than that. Say hello to APC, the Apple Portable Connector.

oh my god already Apple! Would ya just make a SMALLER laptop or a larger iPod Touch or both ALREADY! Obviously there has been a BIG ENOUGH market for this since the end of the 12" iBooks and Powerbooks! One size does not fit all needs just as one chromatic Nano doesn't fit all color tastes. As Apple fans, we've been hearing Apple should make a netbook size device or a mini-tablet (look at the Archos 5!) for way too long now. Just do it already Apple...It's really not rocket science.

Why doesn't the iPod Touch come in different screen sizes (that a whole web page fits on) and could still fit in a pocket? (Nokia N810, Archos 5 60G) I wrote this on my MBA which is nice but still too big!

There are a lot of us here who would dearly love an Apple tablet running OS X. Maybe by next January. Although I may wait for the 2nd gen version built around Moorestown.

[JeffDM]

"Lower power," perhaps, but still not low enough. I still want all-day usage.

Are there any computers that actually offer that? If there are any, are they comfortable enough to be used all day?

As for DVDs, talk about being stuck in 2000. I can throw a DVD in my desktop Mac and have a 700MB Xvid movie file in less than an hour (two-pass encoding; halve that if you're satisifed with single pass) or a higher resolution two-pass H.264 file in less than two hours. Toss five of those movie files on a 4GB thumb drive and you've done away with the power-hungry DVD drive eating up battery life all through the movie. And a darn sight easier to carry around than five DVDs in their keepcases, too.

That the supposedly advanced way is a lot more work, for what? So I can feel advanced? I've done it a few times and I'm not happy with it. That's a lot more time, fiddling and processing power than I care to put into movies that I might only watch a couple times, as opposed to just sliding a disc in and playing it. Does dropping the drive really save more power than the additional CPU power consumed playing the file?

[solipsism]

Does dropping the drive really save more power than the additional CPU power consumed playing the file?

Yes it does. You can test it yourself by copying a Video_TS folder to your HDD.

[JeffDM]

Yes it does. You can test it yourself by copying a Video_TS folder to your HDD.

But the suggested means involves recoding it to much more CPU-intensive codecs than MPEG-2. Is playing back an MPEG-4-based video file really going to be a lot more efficient than just playing a DVD?

[solipsism]

But the suggested means involves recoding it to much more CPU-intensive codecs than MPEG-2. Is playing back an MPEG-4-based video file really going to be a lot more efficient than just playing a DVD?

If you copy the Video_TS folder to your HDD it's still MPEG-2. I've use this method many times. It's best to use VLC Player as it uses less resources than Apple's native playback options.

As for copying it to H.264 and then playing it with just the battery, you have a point, but I'd wager that the motor in the optical drive is still drawing a lot more than the processor. I'll try to test that tomorrow if I can't find any previous testing on it.

[Kolchak]

Are there any computers that actually offer that? If there are any, are they comfortable enough to be used all day?

Sony has had laptops that claim 12 hours per charge for years now. Even though reviews say it's actually closer to 9 hours, that's still all-day use if you ask me. Compare with the 4 hours of the Air in real-world testing.

That the supposedly advanced way is a lot more work, for what? So I can feel advanced? I've done it a few times and I'm not happy with it. That's a lot more time, fiddling and processing power than I care to put into movies that I might only watch a couple times, as opposed to just sliding a disc in and playing it. Does dropping the drive really save more power than the additional CPU power consumed playing the file?

Sounds like you don't know what you're talking about. Done it a few times, when? 2002? Drop a DVD in the drive. Launch Handbrake. Provide file destination path. Select file size or bitrate. Click "start." Gee, that's a lot of work. A couple of more steps if I decide to select AVC (H.264) and two-pass.

As for the second, you're really wrong. I just compared playing a DVD on Apple DVD Player with playing back an Xvid file on VLC. Guess what? The Xvid file took fewer CPU cycles, as much as 20% lower. Did you maybe stop to think that maybe Xvid achieves lower bitrates because it's a newer codec than the aging MPEG2 that's based on early 90s technology, not because it hogs more CPU? In fact, even a movie I encoded with AVC myself has the same CPU utilization as playing back a DVD. If you want to be lazy, that's your business, but don't use that as an excuse to keep everybody else chained to DVD drives. Most people don't need them.

[solipsism]

Sony has had laptops that claim 12 hours per charge for years now. Even though reviews say it's actually closer to 9 hours, that's still all-day use if you ask me.
Sony is eiher usign a large weighty cell or a really slow processor for that 12 hour.claim. HP and Dell are jumping on that wagon with a respective 24 and 10 hour notebook.

• http://www.engadget.com/2008/09/08/hp-specs-a-24-hour-elitebook-dells-19-hour-mark-hangs-its-head/

PS: Sony recently announced plans to change its battery timing method from Jeita to Jeita's 'A'. Their previous method takes the mean average of the notebook running idle and it running a movie. The new method will only use the time from playing a movie. I'm not if the source is from DVD or HDD for this test.

Compare with the 4 hours of the Air in real-world testing.
This dismal battery life it why I didn't get one.


As for the second, you're really wrong. I just compared playing a DVD on Apple DVD Player with playing back an Xvid file on VLC. Guess what? The Xvid file took fewer CPU cycles, as much as 20% lower.
What about playing that DVD via VLC?

[JeffDM]

Sounds like you don't know what you're talking about. Done it a few times, when? 2002? Drop a DVD in the drive. Launch Handbrake. Provide file destination path. Select file size or bitrate. Click "start." Gee, that's a lot of work. A couple of more steps if I decide to select AVC (H.264) and two-pass.


I have used handbrake, It's not just that, it's making sure the segment numbers are properly numbered, like episode number in a TV show, which differs from the title auto-numbering that handbrake does, especially on the second or later discs in the series. I have version 0.9.1 on my system right now. I don't really benefit from it enough to balance out the pre-load CPU power. It's not like a CD where it's the opposite, just five minutes and it might be played many dozens of times.

As for the second, you're really wrong. I just compared playing a DVD on Apple DVD Player with playing back an Xvid file on VLC. Guess what? The Xvid file took fewer CPU cycles, as much as 20% lower. Did you maybe stop to think that maybe Xvid achieves lower bitrates because it's a newer codec than the aging MPEG2 that's based on early 90s technology, not because it hogs more CPU?

Newer, higher entropy codecs generally take more computational power than older ones. If the encoding cuts out a lot of detail during the conversion, then it's easily conceivable that much of the savings is due to playing a lower quality file.

I can play a 20Mbps MPEG-2 HD stream just fine. The same computer stutters on a 4.5Mbps HD show from itunes.


If you want to be lazy, that's your business, but don't use that as an excuse to keep everybody else chained to DVD drives. Most people don't need them.

I think you're overreacting by quite a bit. When have I said that others had to be "chained" to a DVD drive? All I said is that's why I'm not interested in the machines in question. My not buying such a notebook does not mean I am saying you're not allowed to buy one, I don't remember ever saying anything to that effect, I certainly don't see anything like that on the post where I mentioned my purchase choice.

[solipsism]

You are 100% wrong. It is custom chip made specifically for the MBA.

The chip is new as it using the small form factor, but it wasn't technically made for the MBA. INtel had designed it and then shelved it. Apple came along and asked for something smaller than typical chip. There are now other OEMs using this exact same chip in their ultra-light portables.

[merdhead]

You are 100% wrong. It is custom chip made specifically for the MBA.
It's a old chip that intel combined with an old project to reduce the chip carrier size. It's not custom for the MBA, but Apple caused the project to be resurrected. I'm sure it's available to anyone who wants it.

[merdhead]

The chip is new as it using the small form factor, but it wasn't technically made for the MBA. INtel had designed it and then shelved it. Apple came along and asked for something smaller than typical chip. There are now other OEMs using this exact same chip in their ultra-light portables.
The chip itself is old but the package and the board that it sits on is new but was designed some time ago. Not that any of it is important other than for marketing.

[Powelligator]

You're in luck, the update will bring a 120GB HDD standard, and within 6 months you'll see a 160GB SSD for an estimated $1000 more.

The main deal breaker for me is the low yield battery combined with the lack of a removable battery. I don't mind the fixed battery, but I better get at least 8 hour if you are going to do that. Now there are other options that will run OS X when I'm away so the MBA isn't even in a consideration anymore.

120 GB? Still not enough disk space. This is the year 2008 for cryin' out loud. So we will have to wait another six months past the next update - whenever *that* will be.

I agree with you on the non-removable battery issue. I'm spoiled in that I typically carry one spare battery with me which takes seconds to swap out, even in an airline seat.

Looks like I'll be using my trusty old MBP for quite a bit longer. Or the new MBP, whenever that comes out.

Joe

[merdhead]

You are arguing that a smaller footprint on the MBA would still mean it could be as useful even with a small screen and keyboard. You might be willing to sacrifice full size keys because you have small hands or don't type much or some other reason, but there are plenty of people who type all day and don't want a half size keys and an 8" display to do important work on. To change that aspect would change the market it's aimed for. Netbooks have their purpose, but they are not designed for that.

I'm arguing smaller is better, as long as the trade-offs are not a deal-breaker. For many people smaller keyboards are not a problem. I hunt and peck so smaller than full-sized is not going to get in the way. Most people are not touch typists. The biggest issue for me is changing between smaller and larger keyboards, for instance when I use a laptop and desktop. That problem could be solved by having a BT or USB reduced size keyboard.

You're saying netbooks don't cut it for "serious" work. You're not in a position to say that since it's an individual preference. Everyone works differently. You can only speak for yourself in that regard.

The bottom line is that Apple should make a smaller laptop and let the market decide, just as they have with the Air. The problem is that at the moment Apple seems to only favour "thin" things and as an optical illusion at that, rather than truly small (in other dimensions). Appearance is important, but not at the cost of functionality.

[wizard69]

The processors in the is only around $284 and $316, while the fastest Atom chips are $70 and $135. Coincidently, the Atom chips are the same respective speeds as the current Air, but the drop in performance would make it incredibly slow. This would be a very costly change and completely alter the market it's aimed at. There is plenty of room for Apple to keep the MBA at the top end of an ultra-lightweight notebook and have a UMPC for a tablet Mac using Atom. They don't have to destroy one to make the other.

I had a nice reply for you but Safari still crashes a lot on iPhone.

In any event what I was going to say in a nut shell is that it is not a given that AIRs performance would be worst with Atom. The current problem with AIR performance is processor throttling. If a dual or tripple core Atom can run flat out all the time it might be a better alternative to the mainstream notebook CPU. Especially a notebook CPU that only runs half speed due to throttling.

A good test for the feasability of a new AIR would be it's ability to run Apples own HD video content. Like it or not half the laptops you see running on modern air planes are being used to view movies. Not that I blame the movie viewers as gettingnreal work done on a plane is difficult to say the least.

The only thing left if addressing storage issues. Unfortunately I think we are more than a generation off here. 128 GB SSD or 160 GB HDD just aren't enough space for most users.

In some ways you can look at AIR and it's enclosure as simple being a bit to far ahead of the tech curve. Once they can implement reliable performance and address the common complaints they might actually sell. Well that and address the rediculous price.

Dave

[sierradragon]

The only thing "high end" about the MBA is the price. Performance-wise it is a LOW END box for low end usages. Of course the high price is limiting to sales. This fits with Apple's public model of building expensive 1G then evolve to 2G at lower price.

Obviously some can't undertsand that smaller is the thing...

I agree that Apple should (and probably will) address the ~12" market segment; but only for a few folks is "smaller the thing." E.g. among PBs, how much market share did the low end 12" PB have? The fact is that most folks want screen real estate, pixels and performance from a laptop to faciliate productive work.

-Allen Wicks

[Olternaut]

The MacBook Air isn't selling because it's priced $1,100 to much. Think outside the Apple for a second, it uses less material, it has less ports, a slower processor than the MacBook, takes less RAM, can't change the battery and no optical drive? MMMMM should cost less too huh?

MacBook should cost $999 since that was the price of the iBook it replaced, which cost more to make by the way. So the Air should start at $700.

I think those price reductions for the ipods were just the beginning. I think the "part II" macbook event coming on October 14th is ALSO going to have major price reductions. Perhaps that $1,100 your talking about is going to get trimmed off!
Not to mention similar trimmings on the rest of the macbooks. October 14th fast approaches.......and its also happens to be my BIRTHDAY BOOYaAAAAA!!!!!! 8-):D

[merdhead]

The only thing "high end" about the MBA is the price. Performance-wise it is a LOW END box for low end usages. Of course the high price is limiting to sales. This fits with Apple's public model of building expensive 1G then evolve to 2G at lower price.



I agree that Apple should (and probably will) address the ~12" market segment; but only for a few folks is "smaller the thing." E.g. among PBs, how much market share did the low end 12" PB have? The fact is that most folks want screen real estate, pixels and performance from a laptop to faciliate productive work.

-Allen Wicks
I think you can shrink down the MBA a lot more without reducing the screen size too much. Have a look at that thick border around the LCD. My old Titatnium Powerbook circa 2001 has a border around 5mm or so. Time to bring that back.

[solipsism]

I had a nice reply for you but Safari still crashes a lot on iPhone.

In any event what I was going to say in a nut shell is that it is not a given that AIRs performance would be worst with Atom. The current problem with AIR performance is processor throttling. If a dual or tripple core Atom can run flat out all the time it might be a better alternative to the mainstream notebook CPU. Especially a notebook CPU that only runs half speed due to throttling.

A good test for the feasability of a new AIR would be it's ability to run Apples own HD video content. Like it or not half the laptops you see running on modern air planes are being used to view movies. Not that I blame the movie viewers as gettingnreal work done on a plane is difficult to say the least.

The only thing left if addressing storage issues. Unfortunately I think we are more than a generation off here. 128 GB SSD or 160 GB HDD just aren't enough space for most users.

In some ways you can look at AIR and it's enclosure as simple being a bit to far ahead of the tech curve. Once they can implement reliable performance and address the common complaints they might actually sell. Well that and address the rediculous price.

Dave
I had a nice reply for you, too, but my Safari browser froze up my phone and required a restart. :\

I'm not going to redo my post about the Air because I'm sure it'll be updated to a lower TDP chip in a few weeks and we'll probably have another opportunity to debate it. :)

But I will re-comment on the storage capacity. The next Air will get the 120GB HDD that is in the Classic. 160GB won't happen. There are 128GB SSD in the 2.5" size, but I don't know of any in the thin 1.8" size. And we have to wonder if Apple would use these if the speed and reliability is poor, as we've seen in some SSD drives. I think that the capacity is fine for most people. This isn't marketed as your only computer and I know plenty of people with full size 2" thick notebooks that don't have more than 160GB. I bought a black MacBook in 2007 and it came with a 120GB HDD. You could upgrade to 160GB. That was a year ago. Now I have another black MB that came with a 160GB HDD. That was earlier this year. I think 120GB for notebook that is designed specifically for the traveling business person it excellent.

As for being ahead of the tech curve, I agree wholeheartedly. That small package with a C2D chip has the unfortunate drawback of requiring more wattage than if it was on the normal size package. This limitation has been eliminated with Montevina. It's unfortunate, but being too far ahead of the tech curve is bad for business. Apple obviously knew of Intel's roadmap and knew the issues with using a SFF Santa Rosa/Merom so I can't help but wonder if the MBA was a testing ground or Apple trying to be the first to market with this new notebook.

[LukeD]

The MB Air competes against the Lenovo ThinkPad X300, the Sony TZ series, and that Voodoo thing.

Sales of the MB Air have far exceeded those of its PC "competitors".

Corporate sales of the MB Air have also been far greater than those sales of its PC "competitors".

The MB Air is being used more in Windows environments than the ThinkPad X300.

Give the MB Air a break!

It is a revolutionary product, not an evolutionary one.

If you want more ports and an optical drive, buy a MacBook Pro.

If you do not like it, do not buy it. However, senior corporate executives and consumers, who can afford it, love it!

Shaw Wu needs to read more.

[foobar]

The MBA is made for the I-want-a-full-computer-as-small-as-possible market. That is not the netbook market. However, since Apple doesn't make netbooks, it is effectively also competing there. Since it is designed with entirely different goals, it's no wonder it doesn't seem competitive there. But it is pretty competitive in its own market. Don't mix those two markets up, or you'll end up arguing about nothing.

Also, the general appeal of the MBA is low. Naturally. The MB is cheaper, does the same things, and is just a little bulkier. Few people are willing to pay that much premium for a thinner notebook. But that's not news, it was obvious from the start. It was still profitable. The question now, however, is whether this interest is declining. Please don't argue that the interest was low to begin with! You've missed the point.

[Jezreel]

I agree.... The consumer market for that type of laptop is so small to begin, this news isn't surprising.

I never could figure out the market for the Air. Why pay so much money for a laptop of limited functionality just because it is skinny? Why does Apple care about having bragging rights for the world's thinnest computer? How often do you need to put a laptop in an envelope?

[satchmo]

Sales of the MBA are naturally going to flatten. Especially with the imminent arrival of new MB's and MBP's.

However, I do think Apple needs to revisit the MBA in it's next revision. One certainty is that the price needs to drop.

[nowayout11]

People would keep saying "it's for the ultra-traveler" but the ultra traveler needs a replaceable battery so the system can be powered on their schedule, not the laptop's.

It's really pretty similar to the Cube. A form over function solution that is lusted after aesthetically, but makes compromises and is priced for the professional market yet has tangible feature sets of a consumer product.

Sometimes successful companies DO get a little self-indulgent and need a reality check. But no risk means no rewards, so it's worth a shot. If they can adapt the MBA, then all the better. But pretty soon you just have a MacBook.

[solipsism]

Sales of the MBA are naturally going to flatten. Especially with the imminent arrival of new MB's and MBP's.

However, I do think Apple needs to revisit the MBA in it's next revision. One certainty is that the price needs to drop.

If they keep with 2GB RAM then that will drop (hopefully they will move to 4GB, The SSD has dropped again, as one would expect. I'd wager that the CPU is cheaper since it's not a standard size chip. Since the CPU speeds are going to be the same as the current MBA they may want to lower the price since people cant look past GHz. I think that the 120GB 1.8" is a little cheaper than the 80GB when the MBA was originally launched. And there are some R&D that may have been paid for at this point that could lower the price. Finally, flattening sales could drop the price to spark more sales. I'm personally thinking it'll be the same price of the high-end MB or $100 more: $1,499 to $1,599.

[satchmo]

I'm personally thinking it'll be the same price of the high-end MB or $100 more: $1,499 to $1,599.

That's going to be fine balancing act for Apple to price, especially if a redesigned MacBook goes aluminum and thinner.

I mean why not go MB with all it's ports/optical drive, and cheaper price. Yes, the MBA is thinner and lighter, but it's for a very niche audience. But this just goes back to the original reasoning why the MBA was needed at all.

[solipsism]

That's going to be fine balancing act for Apple to price, especially if a redesigned MacBook goes aluminum and thinner.

I mean why not go MB with all it's ports/optical drive, and cheaper price. Yes, the MBA is thinner and lighter, but it's for a very niche audience. But this just goes back to the original reasoning why the MBA was needed at all.

The MB is still goign to be Apple's most popular Mac. It's going to have all the extra port, no backlit keyboard, be considerably thicker, weightier, and have cheaper display.

For those that think Apple is charging too much for a 1.6GHz processor, check out Sony's TZ series. They start at $100 more than the MBA and only come with a 1.2GHz CPU, a max HDD size of 120GB and half the RAM.• http://www.sonystyle.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/SYCTOProcess?catalogId=10551&storeId=10151&langId=-1&LBomId=8198552921665453992

[JeffDM]

I never could figure out the market for the Air. Why pay so much money for a laptop of limited functionality just because it is skinny? Why does Apple care about having bragging rights for the world's thinnest computer? How often do you need to put a laptop in an envelope?

They're just showing off the sleekness, The envelope thing is just a gimmick, not its intended storage. That said, I saw a video where Scott Bourne showed his Air in a leather pouch that was shaped a lot like an envelope.

[solipsism]

I never could figure out the market for the Air. Why pay so much money for a laptop of limited functionality just because it is skinny? Why does Apple care about having bragging rights for the world's thinnest computer? How often do you need to put a laptop in an envelope?

If you can't understand the market for the ultra-lights because the cost to functionality is too high, can you see the market for ultra-portables and UMPCs? They offer even lower performing processors for higher relative cost.

[BAP]

I did not want to waste my time reading all of the above replies.

The issue is this. Whenever pundits say that an Apple product is to be updated, the sales for that item plummet. There has been talk for about 8 weeks about expected updates across the laptop line. I, and most likely many others, have been waiting for the new models to be released, possibly on october 14th. The only people that I know that recently bought Apple laptops were students who needed it then (with the Ipod), and newbies who did not know better. Three was a similar discussion about the fall in iPhone sales and market in the month before the 3G was released. by the way, the MAJOR change in the MBP is likely between 14 and 24 months away if Intel does not have to slow down development due to some possible recent issue with onboard videos.

I do however agree that Apple purposefully under powers the laptops in regards to hard drives, memory, and video. They have almost always used slower CD/DVD drives, sometimes due to the use of thinner drives.

The price differential between Apple and others has been shrinking steadily since i got my first mat in 1986. The reliability of the older models was exceptional, except for the old white iBooks, which I went through 4 of. I am writing this on an 8 year old dual G4 800, which I bought used. Then I will go back to my 8 year old Titanium g4 1GHz, which I will replace next month. I am also ripping a movie on a Mac Mini and own use 3 G4 and 2 Intel IMacs at my office. My recent Vista laptop lasted 4 months before it died from over heating - those problems are mostly Intel related.

[backtomac]

For those that think Apple is charging too much for a 1.6GHz processor, check out Sony's TZ series. They start at $100 more than the MBA and only come with a 1.2GHz CPU, a max HDD size of 120GB and half the RAM.• http://www.sonystyle.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/SYCTOProcess?catalogId=10551&storeId=10151&langId=-1&LBomId=8198552921665453992

I think netbooks will gut the sales of that machine and those like it.

Time will tell.