Apple's recent stock drop not seen as cause for panic
Though AAPL stock has dropped 8 percent in the last 10 trading days, it's no cause for concern over the Mac maker's shares, one Wall Street analyst has said.
In his latest note to investors issued Tuesday afternoon, analyst Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray said Apple typically outperforms in the last four months of the year, up 43 percent, and underperforms in the first four months of the year, up 2 percent. This year, he said, investors are just taking their typical sell-off a little early, to capitalize on the strong gains of late '09.
In addition, he said shares may have, in years past, been driven up in December in anticipation of Apple's participation in the Macworld conference. The company's 2009 appearance was its last.
Munster said he remains confident that the December quarter will provide upside, driven by Mac, to reassure investors.
"There has been disagreement on the Street as to what has caused the recent slide in AAPL shares," he said. "We believe it is the cumulative effect of several seasonal and industry wide market forces at work."
Another factor in Apple's recent stock struggles: The ongoing ad war between Verizon and AT&T, and the recent launch of the Motorola Droid, also accompanied by an advertising blitz.
"Collectively, these competitive forces may have had a slight negative impact on consumer sentiment towards the iPhone," Munster said. "Also, large cap stocks GOOG, AMZN, QCOM and AAPL have each underperformed the market in the past 5 trading days."
In his latest note to investors issued Tuesday afternoon, analyst Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray said Apple typically outperforms in the last four months of the year, up 43 percent, and underperforms in the first four months of the year, up 2 percent. This year, he said, investors are just taking their typical sell-off a little early, to capitalize on the strong gains of late '09.
In addition, he said shares may have, in years past, been driven up in December in anticipation of Apple's participation in the Macworld conference. The company's 2009 appearance was its last.
Munster said he remains confident that the December quarter will provide upside, driven by Mac, to reassure investors.
"There has been disagreement on the Street as to what has caused the recent slide in AAPL shares," he said. "We believe it is the cumulative effect of several seasonal and industry wide market forces at work."
Another factor in Apple's recent stock struggles: The ongoing ad war between Verizon and AT&T, and the recent launch of the Motorola Droid, also accompanied by an advertising blitz.
"Collectively, these competitive forces may have had a slight negative impact on consumer sentiment towards the iPhone," Munster said. "Also, large cap stocks GOOG, AMZN, QCOM and AAPL have each underperformed the market in the past 5 trading days."
Comments
Where can I apply?
Anyway, no one knows, and it'll all get corrected come the next quarterly report, which should be very, very nice.
You'll see significant downward pressure when AAPL gets back up to the $200-210 range... just before it bumps up again around May-June to $275ish after record growth/profits/sales.
Unless something happens to Jobs along the way...
Not to mention Windows 7, that offers multitouch on the desktop and laptop today. Not, it's not as polished, but it's available and application developers can exploit it.
Yes, Apple will do touch right on their next generation non iPhone hardware, but then, by then, their stock will rise again!
That's the way the cookie crumbles.
It looks like a lot of people/institutions had an automatic 'sell' at or around $200. Take your profit and wait for the bottom of the W.
You'll see significant downward pressure when AAPL gets back up to the $200-210 range... just before it bumps up again around May-June to $275ish after record growth/profits/sales.
Unless something happens to Jobs along the way...
Do you mean Jobs or jobs? It would certainly help to have something happen to jobs!
Institutions buy and sell on technical indicators. Once a stock breaks through a mathematically determined level of support, the sell button is pushed automatically. The market has run up a lot over the last six months -- so all the big traders are really itching to push that button.
Personally, I'm glad and ready to buy more at lower prices. The smart among you will plan to do the same. Remember, if everyone is positive about a stock, who's left to buy? The opposite is also true, which we saw last March when the market bottomed. The pattern repeats, and the smart investor learns. The dumb one is the guy saying an over priced can go higher, and is the last one to sell a stock as it hits bottom. Ask yourself which one you want to be
"How do we make money?....
We churn it. "
[ trans. ] (of a broker) encourage frequent turnover of (investments) in order to generate commission.
It's never a reason to panic until 2 months later when it's down 30%
To be fair, Apples share price was around $170 before the stocks crashed last year. Since then Apple has only posted record profits. I think the stock should be fairly stable where it is, but I'm definitely not an expert.
It looks like a lot of people/institutions had an automatic 'sell' at or around $200. Take your profit and wait for the bottom of the W.
You'll see significant downward pressure when AAPL gets back up to the $200-210 range... just before it bumps up again around May-June to $275ish after record growth/profits/sales.
Unless something happens to Jobs along the way...
Stock may take a dip upon the departure of Steve but I don't think as bad as many would believe. He will likely take his exit similar to how Bill left MS & sort of draw back as CEO to a somewhat advisory position. Tim Cook showed he was more than capable of running Apple in Steve's absence & in fact I think with Steve retired Apple may even become much more price competitive.
Steve cast the vision for Apple for many years, but he also brought in & surrounded himself with some amazing talent. That talent has matured well & I think it's become very clear that Apple will be just fine without Steve at the helm.
Kicking myself just a little for buying back in at $196 and not holding out for $192 or $191. Never would have expected to see it at $188 though. It's a great value and as long as your timeline is measured in quarters and not days or weeks this is a fantastic price to get in at. I am really hoping for it to finish the year around $204 with some options... but my strategy is really much longer-term.
To be fair, Apples share price was around $170 before the stocks crashed last year. Since then Apple has only posted record profits. I think the stock should be fairly stable where it is, but I'm definitely not an expert.
The two best pieces of advice I can offer, from years of hard experience:
Don't try to figure out short-term moves -- it will drive you insane.
Do not try to time buying and selling; it will make you poor.
Not to mention Windows 7 that offers multitouch on the desktop and laptop today. No, it's not as polished, but it is available and application developers can exploit it. The iPhoto like app on the HP TouchSmart is a lot more fun to use than iPhoto for OS X.
Apple will do touch right on their next generation non iPhone hardware, and by then if they can leapfrog the competition, their stock will rise again!
That's the way the cookie crumbles.
and then the analysts realized, that Apple's growth partially coming from hardware sales is not sustainable unless they change some product design. Otherwise people might taste that they were eating rotten apples.
So better lock the profit which they got...
Screw the analysts.
http://macmatte.wordpress.com/
and then the analysts realized, that Apple's growth partially coming from hardware sales is not sustainable unless they change some product design. Otherwise people might taste that they were eating rotten apples.
So better lock the profit which they got...
I like a matte screen as much as the next guy, but I don't think an online petition with 840 signatories is likely to drive stock prices anywhere in particular.
I like a matte screen as much as the next guy, but I don't think an online petition with 840 signatories is likely to drive stock prices anywhere in particular.
Yeah, right. So what about sunspots?
I like a matte screen as much as the next guy, but I don't think an online petition with 840 signatories is likely to drive stock prices anywhere in particular.
That's true.
However, I have posted it as a joke and also wanted you to make it 841
I still hope, and want to make a small contribution to my own hope.
Otherwise, I will just got, maybe in a year, almost no interest to apple at all. But for now - I want matte apple.
...... but I'm definitely not an expert.
Don't be too hard on yourself -- no one is. And if someone tells you (s)he is, flee.
<-- Still waiting for AAPL $600.
Screw the analysts.
That's the spirit!
"We believe it is the cumulative effect of several seasonal and industry wide market forces at work."
The Galleon/SEC insider trading case and Dubai's default liquidated lots of AAPL. Plus there was a Thanksgiving selloff when most traders were on vacation.
I thinks there's a concerted effort by certain fund managers to manipulate the stock down in the short term, pile on, and make a killing, when AAPL blasts past $210 after next quarter. I expect to see $280 AAPL in 2010.