I want to be able to access specific content that I need or desire, at all times. And I need for that transaction to be fast and intuitive and cheap (ie. useful and/or enjoyable) so as to be part of my current dialog or stream of thought. If I have an emergent need, one for which I don't already have a solution, I need a way to get one.
To date, the iPhone has been the best solution for this. The iPad looks even better.
Couldn't agree more. For example, every salesman who makes sales calls and presentations should want one of these. Every company employing salesmen or field service people should want an App that can access their corporate database. Every realtor should want to take one of these along when they're showing houses or office space to a client.
It's the killer combination of a great display, ease of use, and ubiquitous connectivity at a much lower cost than we've seen previously.
The Internet has had a dramatic impact on our lives. One of the main reasons it became popular so quickly would be the early emergence of ISPs like Earthlink who offered very low cost access at a fixed rate with no metered usage charges. Customers loved that model and flocked to it. Phone companies lamented the fact that they hadn't acted quickly enough to get control of it and to get their toll booths on every Internet entry point and node. Now we have the coming together of cellular phone networks and the internet. The phone companies want those toll booths. The customers want those low fixed monthly rates. The pricing model for the iPad's 3G data plan is a breakthrough for customers.
I think 2M iPads in 2010 is extremely conservative. The iPad will be released world wide, at least the WiFi version, at launch. My prediction would be Apple selling 2M iPad each quarter and if they release it in April I think we will see around 6 million in 2010.
Really? Are you sure about that? You cannot use an iPad without already owning a Mac or PC computer, and having a WiFi network at home (people are not going to buy the 3G model to use solely at home). How do you expect to get anything into it without having a computer, and knowing how to operate said computer? How is a computer illiterate going to be able to get on the internet if they are too stupid to know how to set up a WiFi network to make it work? They might be able to tap a few icons, but they won't be able to do anything with it. Nice try...
Perhaps you have provided a need searching for a solution - a business opportunity perhaps! \
I love the fact that the iPad will have over 140,000 iphone apps available for use from day one. One of my favorite apps is the remote scheduler from DirectTV. I can program anyone of my three DVRs from anywhere I may happen to be in the world. I tried to get my wife to use it but she resists because she would have to find her glasses to use it on my iphone. With the iPad, she could program her favorite shows with the app at the blown up iPad size. Because the app is so simple to use, she wont ask me for directions on how to use it. Then she will probably ask me what other apps are available. I'll show her the app store and let her go.
We just don't realize how big this is going to be for the app store. Just look at your apps now that you have on your iphone/ipod touch. Now imagine them with large buttons. Our moms and grandparents will be in heaven. They wont have to reach for their glasses to do anything. That alone will make it the "IT" device for anyone who needs glasses to read or do a task.
My prediction for first year sales is 1 million units a month. Apple has 284 stores. To sell a million units a month is 1 million divided by 30 days = 33,334 per day (rounded). The average store is open 10 hours a day. That leaves 3,334 units sold per hour. If we divide that by 284 stores, that leaves roughly 11 units per hour per store. Obviously bigger stores in high density areas like New York and San Francisco will sell more. If my math is correct, I believe they will meet that goal. They can count me in as one of the first to get a 3G, 32gig version.
Hey what's with the 'even', you think 80 is passed it? lol. My 86 year old father is standing by to order his he tells me. He has a new 27" iMac i7 but feels the iPad will be great when sitting in an arm chair or going to bed early to read.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sandau
This thing will sell better than the 3M Ergo Audrey Internet Appliance! Guaranteed!
I'm getting one. Perfect match for my 27" iMac. I sold my MBP last month knowing that (for me) having a notebook was no longer in my future with an iPad like device.
You're not digitalclips father by any chance? You know, just putting two and two together!
You're just wrong. He has photos that he's taken with the camera and people have emailed to him, he buys his music through iTunes. The phone works as well as it did day one and runs fine - he's happy.
There's a difference between something being an added bonus and something being a requirement.
The iPad is a stand alone device. It is an additional device. It can be either.
I disagree. Is syncing files an added bonus now? Cannot see where you are coming from, not that your position was that great to begin with. I can't speak for the iPad, because it isn't out yet, but if you want to manage your photos, music or videos you simply cannot do this on an iPhone without a computer. What if you run out of space? What if an application isn't working correctly? If you need to restore or update the software (you didn't address that one)? Just because it works for your dad doesn't make it standalone - I would get the iPad for my parents, but fully understand I may need to sync it with my Macbook if any problems were to occur (less so than with the phone though).
I do wonder if the USB connector for the iPad will work with the iPhone though. Maybe in 4.0...
It's not a replacement for anything, it's a new type of device.
Did you watch the keynote?
It's for people who don't need the 'full' computer experience - people who just want to browse the web, check their email (hotmail probably!) and listen to music while reading books.
So it is supposed to replace a computer for people who do not need full computer experience, but did not have any other choice so far..?
OK, you mean I don't know how things work in the USA, not how things "work" - there is a world outside the US you know. And it's where Apple sell a majority of their products.
You need a computer to set up wi-fi? No. You simply need to access the routers CP via a browser. Why couldn't you access your routers control panel via the web browser on the 'pad? you confuse me.
Also, "if you want to put your "own" music and videos on it" - Well Apple want you to buy content on line. Of course this thing will have even MORE potential if hooked up to a computer, but it's not necessary in order to own the device. But look at your logic - if someone currently doesn't have a home computer, then they're not going to have their "own" digital media to transfer. If they do already have a computer then there's no issue.
I don't understand your logic. At all.
Hm... I've seen some routers here in NZ that are shipped with wireless disabled by default, or not letting you access router's config through wireless. Basically you need to plug network cable to set it up.
But I think this part of the world is a bit different - our routers (at least consumer models) are all-in-one devices, integrating ADSL modem, router, 4-port switch and wireless access point in one box.
No we get it. That's the problem. It not for anything but basically being entertained or viewing information. Yawn.
Well, in his defence, being entertained and viewing information is big part of home IT in general. If device manages to do that fine and differentiates from notebook, it should do fine.
Personally I don't see enough differentiation from ultra portable notebooks so far, but device is not out yet... so I'll definitely wait to see how it develops software wise, but as a ground rule, there is nothing wrong with it being limited to entertain and show various information.
Yep... faster even... the iPad boots up in 15 seconds and it uses the same bluetooth keyboard I use on my Mac. Not only that, when I no longer need the keyboard, I can put it away.
How fast does MacBook Pro boot anyway? 30 seconds? Less?
Thanks for pointing out this article. It really is excellent. Think about it: when you see good future based science fiction, the characters are not sitting at a computer desk. They are using small task specific devices... (now where did I put my tricorder...?)
As for the fellow who suggested that the author used too many words... which of the words would he remove?
Comments
I want to be able to access specific content that I need or desire, at all times. And I need for that transaction to be fast and intuitive and cheap (ie. useful and/or enjoyable) so as to be part of my current dialog or stream of thought. If I have an emergent need, one for which I don't already have a solution, I need a way to get one.
To date, the iPhone has been the best solution for this. The iPad looks even better.
Couldn't agree more. For example, every salesman who makes sales calls and presentations should want one of these. Every company employing salesmen or field service people should want an App that can access their corporate database. Every realtor should want to take one of these along when they're showing houses or office space to a client.
It's the killer combination of a great display, ease of use, and ubiquitous connectivity at a much lower cost than we've seen previously.
The Internet has had a dramatic impact on our lives. One of the main reasons it became popular so quickly would be the early emergence of ISPs like Earthlink who offered very low cost access at a fixed rate with no metered usage charges. Customers loved that model and flocked to it. Phone companies lamented the fact that they hadn't acted quickly enough to get control of it and to get their toll booths on every Internet entry point and node. Now we have the coming together of cellular phone networks and the internet. The phone companies want those toll booths. The customers want those low fixed monthly rates. The pricing model for the iPad's 3G data plan is a breakthrough for customers.
+++ QFT
Very well said!
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Really? Are you sure about that? You cannot use an iPad without already owning a Mac or PC computer, and having a WiFi network at home (people are not going to buy the 3G model to use solely at home). How do you expect to get anything into it without having a computer, and knowing how to operate said computer? How is a computer illiterate going to be able to get on the internet if they are too stupid to know how to set up a WiFi network to make it work? They might be able to tap a few icons, but they won't be able to do anything with it. Nice try...
Perhaps you have provided a need searching for a solution - a business opportunity perhaps!
We just don't realize how big this is going to be for the app store. Just look at your apps now that you have on your iphone/ipod touch. Now imagine them with large buttons. Our moms and grandparents will be in heaven. They wont have to reach for their glasses to do anything. That alone will make it the "IT" device for anyone who needs glasses to read or do a task.
My prediction for first year sales is 1 million units a month. Apple has 284 stores. To sell a million units a month is 1 million divided by 30 days = 33,334 per day (rounded). The average store is open 10 hours a day. That leaves 3,334 units sold per hour. If we divide that by 284 stores, that leaves roughly 11 units per hour per store. Obviously bigger stores in high density areas like New York and San Francisco will sell more. If my math is correct, I believe they will meet that goal. They can count me in as one of the first to get a 3G, 32gig version.
Hey what's with the 'even', you think 80 is passed it? lol. My 86 year old father is standing by to order his he tells me. He has a new 27" iMac i7 but feels the iPad will be great when sitting in an arm chair or going to bed early to read.
This thing will sell better than the 3M Ergo Audrey Internet Appliance! Guaranteed!
I'm getting one. Perfect match for my 27" iMac. I sold my MBP last month knowing that (for me) having a notebook was no longer in my future with an iPad like device.
You're not digitalclips father by any chance? You know, just putting two and two together!
You're just wrong. He has photos that he's taken with the camera and people have emailed to him, he buys his music through iTunes. The phone works as well as it did day one and runs fine - he's happy.
There's a difference between something being an added bonus and something being a requirement.
The iPad is a stand alone device. It is an additional device. It can be either.
I disagree. Is syncing files an added bonus now? Cannot see where you are coming from, not that your position was that great to begin with. I can't speak for the iPad, because it isn't out yet, but if you want to manage your photos, music or videos you simply cannot do this on an iPhone without a computer. What if you run out of space? What if an application isn't working correctly? If you need to restore or update the software (you didn't address that one)? Just because it works for your dad doesn't make it standalone - I would get the iPad for my parents, but fully understand I may need to sync it with my Macbook if any problems were to occur (less so than with the phone though).
I do wonder if the USB connector for the iPad will work with the iPhone though. Maybe in 4.0...
The 5 people I questioned all said they weren't going to buy an iPad. So I don't think Apple will sell any units in 2010.
Next time ask people who don't work for Steve Ballmer.
Yes, that's the whole point of the device.
It's not a replacement for anything, it's a new type of device.
Did you watch the keynote?
It's for people who don't need the 'full' computer experience - people who just want to browse the web, check their email (hotmail probably!) and listen to music while reading books.
So it is supposed to replace a computer for people who do not need full computer experience, but did not have any other choice so far..?
OK, you mean I don't know how things work in the USA, not how things "work" - there is a world outside the US you know. And it's where Apple sell a majority of their products.
You need a computer to set up wi-fi? No. You simply need to access the routers CP via a browser. Why couldn't you access your routers control panel via the web browser on the 'pad? you confuse me.
Also, "if you want to put your "own" music and videos on it" - Well Apple want you to buy content on line. Of course this thing will have even MORE potential if hooked up to a computer, but it's not necessary in order to own the device. But look at your logic - if someone currently doesn't have a home computer, then they're not going to have their "own" digital media to transfer. If they do already have a computer then there's no issue.
I don't understand your logic. At all.
Hm... I've seen some routers here in NZ that are shipped with wireless disabled by default, or not letting you access router's config through wireless. Basically you need to plug network cable to set it up.
But I think this part of the world is a bit different - our routers (at least consumer models) are all-in-one devices, integrating ADSL modem, router, 4-port switch and wireless access point in one box.
No we get it. That's the problem. It not for anything but basically being entertained or viewing information. Yawn.
Well, in his defence, being entertained and viewing information is big part of home IT in general. If device manages to do that fine and differentiates from notebook, it should do fine.
Personally I don't see enough differentiation from ultra portable notebooks so far, but device is not out yet... so I'll definitely wait to see how it develops software wise, but as a ground rule, there is nothing wrong with it being limited to entertain and show various information.
Yep... faster even... the iPad boots up in 15 seconds and it uses the same bluetooth keyboard I use on my Mac. Not only that, when I no longer need the keyboard, I can put it away.
How fast does MacBook Pro boot anyway? 30 seconds? Less?
I thought you were permanently banned. Looks like I'll have to update the ole "Ignore With A Vengeance" list.
Yet you reply to every post s/he makes.
I know - a device like that will never catch on.
Oh wait - the television, does anyone have one of those?
I love how tech-heads simply don't understand the normal consumer.
The "normal consumer" uses flash and this device doesn't- and your point is?
And furthermore my iPhone takes pictures and makes calls (most of the time lol) which this doesn't and does all the rest.
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I saw this on another thread... it should be required reading for computer 101 circa 2010!
http://stevenf.tumblr.com/post/35922...uters-ive-been
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Thanks for pointing out this article. It really is excellent. Think about it: when you see good future based science fiction, the characters are not sitting at a computer desk. They are using small task specific devices... (now where did I put my tricorder...?)
As for the fellow who suggested that the author used too many words... which of the words would he remove?
Almost spot on, except the iPhone should be no brain and lots of money.
No. iPhone is excellent value for its price, even unsubsidized. And being subsidized it's dirt cheap.
A Blackberry should go where the brains and money are.
The only problem is BB isn't an Apple's product.
Let's say real sales begin on 1 April. Yes, I know, but don't say it cos it's just a dumb cliché, ok?
I think sales will go as follows:
500,000+ - April - i.e. my wife and daughter and all the other fans, the early adopters, the idle rich etc.
750,000+ - May - still US only, but the positive feedback starts kicking in
1,000,000 - June - ditto, ball starts rolling
1,500,000 - July - world sales roll out begins, higher spec 3G models, me and other hold-outs
5,000,000 - August/Sep/Oct/Nov worldwide sales
3,000,000 - December sales
11,250,000 - Total 2010 sales
Reasons?
Low price - starts at the same price as the first 2001 iPod for Zeus' sake! Such a deal!
The running start on Apps.
Books!!! The way they were meant to be e-njoyed. No constraints on colour or multimedia content.
The dream toy for kids.
Familiar functionality.
The perfect device for everyone who never 'got' computers.
The 'must-have' intimate computer.
Stunning, multi, multi, multi-purpose device.
Initial failure rate may be high as too many customers just want to lick it to death.
Not long to wait. Sell the car! I am buying more AAPL.
Look, there's nothing complicated about this, ok?
Let's say real sales begin on 1 April. Yes, I know, but don't say it cos it's just a dumb cliché, ok?
I think sales will go as follows:
500,000+ - April - i.e. my wife and daughter and all the other fans, the early adopters, the idle rich etc.
750,000+ - May - still US only, but the positive feedback starts kicking in
1,000,000 - June - ditto, ball starts rolling
1,500,000 - July - world sales roll out begins, higher spec 3G models, me and other hold-outs
5,000,000 - August/Sep/Oct/Nov worldwide sales
3,000,000 - December sales
11,250,000 - Total 2010 sales
Reasons?
Low price - starts at the same price as the first 2001 iPod for Zeus' sake! Such a deal!
The running start on Apps.
Books!!! The way they were meant to be e-njoyed. No constraints on colour or multimedia content.
The dream toy for kids.
Familiar functionality.
The perfect device for everyone who never 'got' computers.
The 'must-have' intimate computer.
Stunning, multi, multi, multi-purpose device.
Initial failure rate may be high as too many customers just want to lick it to death.
Not long to wait. Sell the car! I am buying more AAPL.
"Low price - starts at the same price as the first 2001 iPod for Zeus' sake! Such a deal!"
Actually costs less than a 2001 iPod if you figure the value of 2001 $ vs the value of 2010 $.
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