Blockbuster 2010 Mac sales expected to carry into February for Apple
A slow start to Mac sales in early 2009 will work to Apple's advantage, potentially making strong 2010 sales seem even more impressive with numbers reflecting huge year-over-year growth, according to a new analysis.
In his latest note to investors, analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said that Mac sales in February of 2009 were down 16 percent year over year. This represents the softest Mac comparison Munster has seen since Piper Jaffray began tracking the data five years ago.
"We expect the strong (year-over-year) growth in NPD data that we saw in (January) to continue in the month of (February)," he wrote. "We believe this presents a buying opportunity ahead of NPD data for the month of Feb. on 3/15."
Mac sales in January of 2009 were down 6 percent from a year prior. That soft comparison helped 2010 sales grow 36 percent year over year, and implied a range of 2.6 million to 2.8 million Mac sales in the first quarter of calendar 2010. Wall Street, Munster said, expects Apple to ship about 2.6 million.
But with an even easier comparison in February, Munster said Apple is poised to exceed expectations yet again.
If Apple sells 2.8 million Macs in the first quarter of 2010, it would represent a 26 percent increase over the start of 2009. In all, the first half of 2009 was down 1 percent year-over-year.
While Mac sales struggled in the first half of 2009, Apple saw tremendous growth in the second half of the year, with an average of 18 percent growth. In the holiday quarter alone, Apple sold a record 3.36 million Macs, helping its profits grow more than 50 percent to $3.38 billion.
Munster is particularly bullish on Apple stock and Mac sales for 2010. In January, he called it the "Year of the Mac," even with what proved to be a low forecast of 3.1 million Macs for the December quarter. Piper Jaffray has maintained its "overweight" rating for AAPL stock with a price target of $284.
In his latest note to investors, analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said that Mac sales in February of 2009 were down 16 percent year over year. This represents the softest Mac comparison Munster has seen since Piper Jaffray began tracking the data five years ago.
"We expect the strong (year-over-year) growth in NPD data that we saw in (January) to continue in the month of (February)," he wrote. "We believe this presents a buying opportunity ahead of NPD data for the month of Feb. on 3/15."
Mac sales in January of 2009 were down 6 percent from a year prior. That soft comparison helped 2010 sales grow 36 percent year over year, and implied a range of 2.6 million to 2.8 million Mac sales in the first quarter of calendar 2010. Wall Street, Munster said, expects Apple to ship about 2.6 million.
But with an even easier comparison in February, Munster said Apple is poised to exceed expectations yet again.
If Apple sells 2.8 million Macs in the first quarter of 2010, it would represent a 26 percent increase over the start of 2009. In all, the first half of 2009 was down 1 percent year-over-year.
While Mac sales struggled in the first half of 2009, Apple saw tremendous growth in the second half of the year, with an average of 18 percent growth. In the holiday quarter alone, Apple sold a record 3.36 million Macs, helping its profits grow more than 50 percent to $3.38 billion.
Munster is particularly bullish on Apple stock and Mac sales for 2010. In January, he called it the "Year of the Mac," even with what proved to be a low forecast of 3.1 million Macs for the December quarter. Piper Jaffray has maintained its "overweight" rating for AAPL stock with a price target of $284.
Comments
Im looking at you Macbooks/Macbook Pros/Airs/Minis/Mac Pro's !
Whilst the user experience may well be 1st class, there is nothing worse that flogging off year old tech at launch prices.
Go figure.
Munster is particularly bullish on Apple stock and Mac sales for 2010.
This reminds me, trend researcher Gerald Celente, who is often right, predicted this year will see a spike in the popularity of luxury goods, which is what most consumers view Macs as being. Interestingly he also predicts that America is going to experience a much worse economic calamity any time now:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22TVzJ_KsqU
This reminds me, trend researcher Gerald Celente, who is often right, .....
Really?! Can you cite some examples? What about predictions of his that didn't pan out? How many has he got right versus wrong, say over the past two years? Five years? (Links would help).
What is 'trend research'?
It's hard to figure what AAPL will do because it seems to be in a unique position...
Part of me says "they can't keep growing like this with the same profit margins" but then I look at the room for growth in their markets... Crazy!
Even more amazing considering most of Apple's current mac products use old out of date technology and are in dire need of updates....
Im looking at you Macbooks/Macbook Pros/Airs/Minis/Mac Pro's !
Whilst the user experience may well be 1st class, there is nothing worse that flogging off year old tech at launch prices.
What Dell and HP has a NVidia 9400 Graphics chip? Really? No...
Apple still uses serial port drivers? Wait... No.
Dell has illuminated key boards? What! No.
Dell and HP have full sized touch sensitive mouse pads with finger commands? Wait... No
Dell and HP both use LCD HD Displays? Nope
Both Dell and HP use high resolution mega pixal graphics support? No
Dell and HP have the #1 Operating System? Hell No
Need I go on?
Oh wait Dell comes in colors... WOW! That makes me want one! Oh wait the graphics card is part of the mother board and if the card goes up the hole mother board goes up too. Sounds Expensive! Oh yea I for got all the virus protective software and the monthly virus protection plan.
Idiot
What Dell and HP has a NVidia 9400 Graphics chip? Really? No...
Apple still uses serial port drivers? Wait... No.
Dell has illuminated key boards? What! No.
Dell and HP have full sized touch sensitive mouse pads with finger commands? Wait... No
Dell and HP both use LCD HD Displays? Nope
Both Dell and HP use high resolution mega pixal graphics support? No
Dell and HP have the #1 Operating System? Hell No
Need I go on?
Oh wait Dell comes in colors... WOW! That makes me want one! Oh wait the graphics card is part of the mother board and if the card goes up the hole mother board goes up too. Sounds Expensive! Oh yea I for got all the virus protective software and the monthly virus protection plan.
Idiot
Dell and HP have the thinest notebook in the world too... Not
And I am forgetting they have Solid State Drivers, ah... Nope
Even more amazing considering most of Apple's current mac products use old out of date technology and are in dire need of updates....
Im looking at you Macbooks/Macbook Pros/Airs/Minis/Mac Pro's !
Whilst the user experience may well be 1st class, there is nothing worse that flogging off year old tech at launch prices.
Well, the MacPro's were updated not so long ago.
The mini's were also refreshed - and a new server version offered.
iMacs were upgraded... I'd love one of those 27" iCore 7s.
And the MBP are less than 9 months from last refresh.
All in all - they are not so out of date.
The days of chasing a few more Mhz are gone. It used to be that CPU's were the limiting performance factor in a PC and that each and every week a better system became available.
In the last 5 years, I've found that systems lasted longer; ie. met my needs longer than before.
That is if the hardware could not fail like my Thinkpad and my Dell towers did.
My Macs keep on computing even 3 1/2 years later.
Dell and HP have the thinest notebook in the world too... Not
And I am forgetting they have Solid State Drivers, ah... Nope
Dell and HP have All - In - One Display/ Desk Top Computers? Nope (Well maybe they do in a 13' size)
Both Dell and HP have the smallest Desktop Computer? ie Mac Mini... Nope
Well, the MacPro's were updated not so long ago.
The mini's were also refreshed - and a new server version offered.
iMacs were upgraded... I'd love one of those 27" iCore 7s.
And the MBP are less than 9 months from last refresh.
All in all - they are not so out of date.
The days of chasing a few more Mhz are gone. It used to be that CPU's were the limiting performance factor in a PC and that each and every week a better system became available.
In the last 5 years, I've found that systems lasted longer; ie. met my needs longer than before.
That is if the hardware could not fail like my Thinkpad and my Dell towers did.
My Macs keep on computing even 3 1/2 years later.
I have 5 Macs and y oldest is a iMac Ruby and it is being used by my kid even after 5 years.
Has there ever been a company with Apple's high market cap that also had Apple's high growth rate combined with their astounding profit margins/cash on hand?
It's hard to figure what AAPL will do because it seems to be in a unique position...
Part of me says "they can't keep growing like this with the same profit margins" but then I look at the room for growth in their markets... Crazy!
I think you raise good questions. I sure don't know what their future growth will look like, but as a stockholder I hope for the best. That said, Apple's market cap is so large that I believe their P/E ratio won't go back up to the 30s and 40s again, and that's okay by me. I like it when the E pushes the P up, rather than having huge expectations pull the P up. In my opinion, the lower P/E makes APPL a safer investment, but their healthy growth and business model still delivers healthy returns.
What Dell and HP has a NVidia 9400 Graphics chip? Really? No...
Apple still uses serial port drivers? Wait... No.
Dell has illuminated key boards? What! No.
Dell and HP have full sized touch sensitive mouse pads with finger commands? Wait... No
Dell and HP both use LCD HD Displays? Nope
Both Dell and HP use high resolution mega pixal graphics support? No
Dell and HP have the #1 Operating System? Hell No
Need I go on?
Oh wait Dell comes in colors... WOW! That makes me want one! Oh wait the graphics card is part of the mother board and if the card goes up the hole mother board goes up too. Sounds Expensive! Oh yea I for got all the virus protective software and the monthly virus protection plan.
Idiot
My Dell has an illuminated keyboard. It also has a 1080p screen and a quad-core i7 processor and both HDMI and eSATA outputs. And a Blu-Ray player.
Apple is well behind the curve, and offers none of these except the little LED beneath the keyboard. How innovative...
Dell and HP have the thinest notebook in the world too... Not
And I am forgetting they have Solid State Drivers, ah... Nope
SSDs are available on (all?) Dell notebooks.
And the MBP are less than 9 months from last refresh.
All in all - they are not so out of date.
Except that they don't offer quad-core chips or full HD screens or HDMI outputs or wireless n or...
But aside from that, they are SOTA...
Except that they don't offer quad-core chips or full HD screens or HDMI outputs or wireless n or...
But aside from that, they are SOTA...
I believe that they've supported wireless N for a while now...
And HDMI is overrated.
Dell and HP have All - Nope etc blah blah blah
You are in denial about your points, and seriously need to get out more to see what the competition is doing..
I guess the one thing that most PC manufacturers have is the newest i3/i5/i7 processors combined with better GPU's. Quite important if you are thinking of buying a laptop now to last you 3 yrs.
Also I notice you didnt compare with the Sony S Vaio range... Of course not, thats because it kicks the Macbook pro's ass for less money.
Take the S model S11V9E ... for £1128.00 (a price no macbook pro can get close to for these specs) - available to buy today..
+ Core i5 2.4Ghz normal. 2.93 Ghz Performance Mode
- 4GB DDR3 installed / 8GB max
+ 500GB HD
+ Geforce 310M with 512MB
+ LED Backlit 1366x768 13.3" screen
- 2Kg
- Backlit keyboard
-+ Win 7 Pro (ok... so not OSX.. but for some people thats a +)
+ HDMI out
+ Finger Print Reader
- SD Card Slot
- Bluetooth / GigaEthernet
+ Wireless cellular modem 7.2Mbps
- Webcam
Macbook Pro 13.3" top end model - £1174.00
- Core 2 Duo 2.5 Ghz
- 4GB DDR3 installed/ 8GB Max
- 250GB HD
- Geforce 9400M with 256MB - Shared with Main memory...
- LED Backlit 1280 x 800 13.3" screen
- 2.04Kg
- SD Card Slot
- Backlit keyboard
- Mini Display port (add £ for an adapter to connect to anything useful)
- Bluetooth / GigaEthernet
+ OSX
- Webcam
If that isnt lagging behind the competition H/W wise by a fair margin I dont know what is...
(And Im writing this on my iMac waiting for the macbook pro's to be refreshed.. I want one too, but Im just not enough of a MUG to buy one right now. Nor am I in denial that Apple's kit is overpriced for what it currently offers.... )
Dell and HP have the #1 Operating System? Hell No
ignoring all the other crap that I'm too tired to argue...please for the love of god explain to me what a #1 operating system is? Is it based off of popularity, market share, sales? Obviously not....is it based off of what is popular in Russell's bedroom? Ok, you got me there. But even though this is an Apple-centric website, lets not forget that for whatever reason you want to ascribe to it, we're in the 5% minority who use OS X. I agree personally, I like OS X more....but seriously, you make us all look like crazed fanatics with statements like that.