Expectations for Apple hit new heights after record iPhone sales

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited January 2014
Apple's 8.75 million iPhones sold in the March quarter combined with a better-than-expected launch of the iPad has led analysts to increase their already bullish views on the company's stock.



On Tuesday, Apple revealed that its profits increased nearly 90 percent in the second financial quarter of 2010, bringing in $3.07 billion, or $3.33 per diluted share. In addition to strong iPhone sales, Apple also shipped 2.94 million Macs and 10.89 million iPods. It was Apple's best non-holiday quarter ever.



Though iPad sales did not begin last quarter, Apple executives also revealed that the product's launch exceeded their expectations. The company has revealed that more than 500,000 devices were sold in the U.S. first week.



Wall Street's most prominent analysts now expect Apple stock to go well beyond $300, with the highest estimate coming from Mike Abramsky of RBC Capital Markets, who increased his 12-month price target for AAPL to $350.



RBC Capital Markets



"After the big run, what's next?" Abramsky asked in his note to investors. "The big run."



The analyst said Wednesday that Apple's iPhone sales were "stunning," based on surprising international momentum. Total iPhone revenue was $5.4 billion, up 127 percent year-over-year, based on a $600 average selling price for the handset.







Abramsky has forecast gross margins of between 18 percent and 26 percent for the iPad in the third quarter. With sales of between 1.5 million and 2.5 million, that would equate to another $1 billion to $1.6 billion in revenue for Apple.



"Apple sees a significant iPad opportunity ahead; On Apple's market share growth strategies, our (fiscal year 2011) iPad unit forecast rises to 9.2M from 8M," he wrote. "Should Apple be correct, Apple's first mover advantage means it may be able to extract superior profitability via a strong market position, as it has in other markets -- and iPad becomes Apple's next cash machine."



Piper Jaffray



Analyst Gene Munster sees Apple's stock hitting $323 in the next 12 months, led by a new version of the iPhone likely to arrive in June. Munster noted that his estimate of 7.5 million iPhones for the quarter was more aggressive than most on Wall Street, and Apple even managed to blow that out with 8.75 million sold during the quarter.



With the recent leak of Apple's next-generation iPhone prototype in the wild, Munster said "meaningful features" of the forthcoming handset will further drive iPhone sales.



Munster said he sees the recently launched iPad as the "Mac for the masses." The lower average selling price gets users a device that accomplishes many of the computing tasks they need to complete on a daily basis. Because of that, the analyst said he believes the addressable market for the iPad is larger than many analysts believe.







Broadpoint AmTech



Analyst Brian Marshall said the most interesting part of Apple's story is the international growth of the iPhone. He believes that Apple has only acquired about 1.5 percent of its international carrier partners' total postpaid subscription base of 525 million. For comparison, its penetration in the U.S. peaked in Sept. 2009 on AT&T with 5 percent.



Since it took the iPhone about 10 quarters to reach that postpaid subscriber penetration with AT&T, he believes the international sales opportunity could double 8 quarters from now, to 16 million units per quarter.



Marshall said the iPhone will generate 60 percent of Apple's gross profits in 2010, and the company will ship 40 million total units during the calendar year.







Oppenheimer



"Someone needs to explain handset seasonality to Apple," analyst Yair Reiner said. "March units should be weaker than the seasonably strong December quarter -- preferably by a good 20-25%. March units should never be flat and never ever grow. Break this rule and you'll leave analysts wondering whether a secular shift is afoot to a radically redefined notion of mobile connectivity."



He also said the demise of the iPod has been "greatly exaggerated," as Apple's media player was down just 1 percent in sales year over year. The 10.9 million units sold was much better than Oppenheimer's prediction of 10.1 million units, as well as Wall Street's 9.9 million average.



With the Mac meeting the market's bullish expectations and a forthcoming iPhone 4G launch, Reiner has raised estimates for Apple. He now has a 12-18 month price target of $320.



Caris & Company



Analyst Robert Cihra sees a "powerful succession of positive catalysts" for Apple over the next 3 to 4 quarters. Namely, he sees iPad demand exceeding supply, Macs gaining market share on PCs, an iPhone refresh in June, and a CDMA iPhone debuting in early 2011.



Cihra said expects iPad constraints to continue for the next three quarters, which will keep investors extrapolating the numbers that "could have been." He has increased his price target for Apple to $310, up from $300.







J.P. Morgan



Analyst Mark Moskowitz said Apple's revenue and earnings growth is expected to stay well above 20 percent over the next few years. Apple's overall revenue and earnings growth show that the company has no rivals in large cap technology.



Moskowiz has increased his price target to $316, up from $305. He said Apple remains J.P Morgan's top pick in IT hardware, and the company's growth story has staying power, based on expected iPad adoption, Mac growth, iPhone penetration in China and additional carriers in the U.S., improved margins, and entrance into new categories like mobile advertising.



Morgan Stanley



Analyst Katy Huberty has increased her price target for Apple to $275, up from $250. She noted that Apple's gross margin guidance for the coming quarter appears too conservative, which is a typical projection tactic for Apple.



Huberty sees potential upsides in Apple's margins from the forthcoming iPad 3G launch, strong sales of high-margin accessories, increased volume over the next few months, and a "benign" environment for component costs, such as DRAM.



Kaufman Bros.



Shaw Wu said he believes Apple's guidance for the coming quarter was less conservative than usual. Apple has projected $13 billion to $13.4 billion in revenue for the June quarter and $2.28 to $2.39 in earnings per share, versus Wall Street consensus at $13 billion and $2.70.



Wu raised his price target for Apple stock for the second time in a week, up to 315 on a 12-month outlook. He said he believes Apple will continue to outperform the market.
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Comments

  • quadra 610quadra 610 Posts: 6,541member
    iPad + iPhone = the next level. $350.
  • macapfelmacapfel Posts: 395member
    It seems Apple was right again, and iPad is the next step in Computer evolution. The big advantage of OS X against Windows was it usability for the average user. Now the iPad show its big advantage of the iPad hardware against the PC hardware for the average user. The iPad is THE perfect media device. People didn't know they were waiting for the iPhone to start loving and really using smartphones. The same now will happen with the iPad and home media usage.
  • aaarrrggghaaarrrgggh Posts: 1,518member
    Does Katie Huberty come close onany of the other stocks she covers?! I almost expect her to give a target price of $260.



    The ipad production constraints are starting to be pretty evident; apple must have projected sales closer to 2MM through June, but they likely have a target market well over double that. Really hope they can capitalize on it quickly; when the competitors come out the gate, it would be nice for the iPad to have strong traction.
  • hmayeshmayes Posts: 29member
    Quote:

    Analyst Katy Huberty has increased her price target for Apple to $275, up from $250.



    Does Huberty live in a different dimension? How does she make a living?
  • extremeskaterextremeskater Posts: 2,248member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post


    iPad + iPhone = the next level. $350.



    I believe at least in the short term we are going to see Apple follow the market trends. In good economic times with Apple doing so well I could see the stock hitting above 300.00 but its hard to see that happening right now.



    The economy is bad, Obama is going to give a speach on Thursday where he is going to hammer the banking industry and talk about finance reform. Goldman Sachs was just recently railed with fines. Overall the market can take a beating on any given day depending on the news of the day and Apple will simply be a victim of that bad news.



    There are no real bright signs in our economy right now and on any give day Apple can and will be a victim of bad news and market drops.
  • SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 24,146member
    Are these analysts paying AI to push their already proven to be inaccurate projections? Why are they given a pedestal when they are off every single quarter. Stop it already, AI. The cracks are showing and it's a very unpleasant sight.
  • freerangefreerange Posts: 1,433member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by HMayes View Post


    Does Huberty live in a different dimension? How does she make a living?



    Agreed - please show her the door as she is obviously incapable of understanding the obvious.
  • freerangefreerange Posts: 1,433member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post


    I believe at least in the short term we are going to see Apple follow the market trends. In good economic times with Apple doing so well I could see the stock hitting above 300.00 but its hard to see that happening right now.



    The economy is bad, Obama is going to give a speach on Thursday where he is going to hammer the banking industry and talk about finance reform. Goldman Sachs was just recently railed with fines. Overall the market can take a beating on any given day depending on the news of the day and Apple will simply be a victim of that bad news.



    There are no real bright signs in our economy right now and on any give day Apple can and will be a victim of bad news and market drops.



    Oh please, who the hell are you and where have you been the last two years? Wake up! Apple has been blowing out numbers, AND increasing the rate at which it is doing so, during the worst recession since the depression. You're a fricking genius aren't you?
  • extremeskaterextremeskater Posts: 2,248member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by FreeRange View Post


    Oh please, who the hell are you and where have you been the last two years? Wake up! Apple has been blowing out numbers, AND increasing the rate at which it is doing so, during the worst recession since the depression. You're a fricking genius aren't you?



    Shut up you havent a clue what you are talking about.
  • drfreemandrfreeman Posts: 111member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post


    I believe at least in the short term we are going to see Apple follow the market trends. In good economic times with Apple doing so well I could see the stock hitting above 300.00 but its hard to see that happening right now.



    The economy is bad, Obama is going to give a speach on Thursday where he is going to hammer the banking industry and talk about finance reform. Goldman Sachs was just recently railed with fines. Overall the market can take a beating on any given day depending on the news of the day and Apple will simply be a victim of that bad news.



    There are no real bright signs in our economy right now and on any give day Apple can and will be a victim of bad news and market drops.



    I doubt Goldman fiasco has anything to do with Apple even remotely! Yes, based on some speculations the share prices might stumble for a few days, but a company with 40 billion dollars of cash in its account with strong sales will bounce back in a day or two!



    I would be more worried if I had Oracle shares, as they could fluctuate a bit given certain IT budget cuts in the public sector. But again these fluctuations are not large!
  • c4rlobc4rlob Posts: 277member
    I'm not sure I understand the Oppenheimer analyst's comments about handset seasonality and Apple's March numbers - when the chart also shows Blackberry March sales consistently outperforming December-holiday sales. Or am I reading that wrong?
  • quadra 610quadra 610 Posts: 6,541member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post


    I believe at least in the short term we are going to see Apple follow the market trends. In good economic times with Apple doing so well I could see the stock hitting above 300.00 but its hard to see that happening right now.



    The economy is bad, Obama is going to give a speach on Thursday where he is going to hammer the banking industry and talk about finance reform. Goldman Sachs was just recently railed with fines. Overall the market can take a beating on any given day depending on the news of the day and Apple will simply be a victim of that bad news.



    There are no real bright signs in our economy right now and on any give day Apple can and will be a victim of bad news and market drops.



    Apple is recession-proof. Where have you been the last two years?
  • boogabooga Posts: 1,070member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post


    I believe at least in the short term we are going to see Apple follow the market trends. In good economic times with Apple doing so well I could see the stock hitting above 300.00 but its hard to see that happening right now.



    The economy is bad, Obama is going to give a speach on Thursday where he is going to hammer the banking industry and talk about finance reform. Goldman Sachs was just recently railed with fines. Overall the market can take a beating on any given day depending on the news of the day and Apple will simply be a victim of that bad news.



    There are no real bright signs in our economy right now and on any give day Apple can and will be a victim of bad news and market drops.



    On the other hand, with the economy being what it is where else are you going to put your money? AAPL is the new gold.
  • herbapouherbapou Posts: 2,173member
    since the min bulk of stock you can buy is 100, then need to split the stock to let small investors get in. Not everyone can get 25k worth of a single stock in there portfolio.



    and imo they should start buying back stocks to reduce there market cap, which is getting too high compare to earnings.
  • extremeskaterextremeskater Posts: 2,248member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post


    Apple is recession-proof. Where have you been the last two years?



    Funny how everyone keeps talking about the last two years when within the last two years at one point Apple was at 80.00 a share. I never said Apple wasn't doing well as a company nor did I say their stock wasn't doing well, which by the way I own and you do not.



    If Apple hits 350.00 I make a ton of money and you don't make a cent. So as always you are making predictions on something you don't even own just like you make comments on products you don't even use.



    The fact that you and others are making your predictions on Apple sales only clearly shows that you haven't a clue about how the market truly works.



    Apple stock is extremely fragile because its always one SJ illness away from crashing. On the flip side if I was to say Apple will hit 550.00 in the net year could you prove me wrong? THe reality is true investors don't pull phantom numbers out of their ass because the market is always fluid. You never see the true investors talk about exact numbers because anyone that is really into investing knows predictions aren't worth shit.



    So lets just raise your 350.00 to 550.00 and make everyone feel good.
  • extremeskaterextremeskater Posts: 2,248member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Booga View Post


    On the other hand, with the economy being what it is where else are you going to put your money? AAPL is the new gold.



    Well like most smart investors you stay diversified. As always on this site other members have selective reading skills. My first comment had nothing to do with Apple as a company or how they are doing. I was simply pointing out that outside factors and certainly play a role in impacting Apple stock prices.



    Anyone that doesn't think trends play a role have no clue about investing. We have members here making comments about stocks that don't own a single share.
  • quadra 610quadra 610 Posts: 6,541member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post


    If Apple hits 350.00 I make a ton of money and you don't make a cent. So as always you are making predictions on something you don't even own just like you make comments on products you don't even use.



    The fact that you and others are making your predictions on Apple sales only clearly shows that you haven't a clue about how the market truly works.



    http://forums.appleinsider.com/showp...5&postcount=75



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post




    Record after record in sales and the stock was at 197.00 on Friday an all the bullish fools keep predicting its still going to hit 270.00 which is never going to happen.



    Do you like barbecue sauce on your crow, or do you just eat it plain?



    It doesn't take a genius to pick an obvious winner. But it sure as sh*t takes a troll to deny it.



    Your iPad comments are particularly amusing.
  • extremeskaterextremeskater Posts: 2,248member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post


    http://forums.appleinsider.com/showp...5&postcount=75







    Do you like barbecue sauce on your crow, or do you just eat it plain?



    It doesn't take a genius to pick an obvious winner. But it sure as sh*t takes a troll to deny it.



    Are we at 270.00? Also yet again I own a ton of Apple stock so I am more then happy to be wrong in this case. This kind of wrong I will take any day of the week. How much did you make off all this?



    Its really funny watching a cheerleader like you that has nothing in the game.
  • beltsbearbeltsbear Posts: 300member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by herbapou View Post


    since the min bulk of stock you can buy is 100, then need to split the stock to let small investors get in. Not everyone can get 25k worth of a single stock in there portfolio.



    and imo they should start buying back stocks to reduce there market cap, which is getting too high compare to earnings.



    What broker are you using? $9 a trade from so many with no minimums. I bought 20 at a time (a few times) with a pretty small loss for fees. There is no NEED to split a stock to let smaller buyers in, unless the price of a single share is too high for them.
  • quadra 610quadra 610 Posts: 6,541member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post


    How much did you make off all this?



    A great laugh at your expense. You know, the usual.
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