Post-CES, Apple's iPad still viewed as tablet leader on Wall Street

Posted:
in iPad edited January 2014
Though a slew of "iPad killers" were introduced at last week's Consumer Electronics Show, none of those tablets are expected to unseat Apple's iPad as the top-selling device, numerous Wall Street analysts said Monday.



With CES now wrapped, analysts who attended said iPad competitors shown off at the Las Vegas convention were unimpressive. Apple is expected to introduce its FaceTime-supporting second-generation iPad in the near future, likely leaving competitors even further behind, they said.



J.P. Morgan



Analyst Mark Moskowitz said he and his team believe Apple will retain more than 60 percent of the tablet market over the next two years, based on the competition spotted at CES. He said hands-on time with a number of devices showed that competitors have a great deal of catching up to do with the iPad.



Moskowitz said tablets he saw were too small and too slow, with the popular 7-inch screen size inferior to Apple's 9.7-inch display, and devices like the BlackBerry PlayBook and some shown off by Intel not as responsive as the iPad.



"in particular, we found the PlayBook to have issues with displaying and scrolling web pages," he wrote. "While these issues could be related to over-used Internet pipes at CES, we believe the browser issues were similar to those in other BlackBerry devices."



Another problem he saw with iPad competitors: there are too many of them. He estimates that more than 40 tablets will appear in the coming months, and while some may be decent, many will fail.



"We believe that Apple's tablet form factor, sturdy operating system, first mover advantage, and apps/content ecosystem should sustain its market dominance beyond the near term," Moskowitz said.



Deutsche Bank



Analyst Chris Whitmore said even after CES, Apple's iPad remains the "gold standard" of touchscreen tablets. He expects to see more than 50 tablets come to market this year, and all of them will be competing for second place.



Whitmore sees about 40 million tablets being shipped in 2011, and he has forecast Apple's iPad will sell around 28 million units, taking roughly 70 percent of the total market.



"We believe the dozens of new tablet entrants will have a difficult time generating meaningful profits due to Apple's enormous cost and branding lead," he said. "We also believe Apple's app lead and tight software-hardware integration provides a significantly better user experience than the devices we saw at CES."







Ticonderoga Securities



The most likely tablets to see a moderate amount of success in 2011 are the BlackBerry PlayBook and Motorola Xoom, in the eyes of analyst Brian White. Still, he saw little that he believes will challenge Apple's lead with the iPad.



"The tablets shown at CES offer certain performance metrics and features not found on the iPad 1," he wrote. "However, we must keep in mind that the specs for iPad 2 have not been announced.



"Also, we still believe the Apple experience with a connected digital ecosystem that extends across devices is superior to the tablets we viewed at the show, while Apple's aesthetics remain well ahead of the pack."



RBC Capital Markets



More bullish on the PlayBook was analyst Mike Abramsky, who said the differentiations in multitasking and performance "may be difficult" for Apple to rival. He expects RIM to expand the PlayBook beyond the 7-inch form factor the company will debut at launch.



"Some aspects of PlayBook (e.g., Apps) are being polished; however, RIM appears determined to get PlayBook right out of the gate, including competitive battery life (via power management from its QNX-based OS)," Abramsky wrote.



Abramsky's take contrasts with another analyst, Shaw Wu of Kaufman Bros., who has suggested that RIM is struggling to fix battery issues with the PlayBook. For its part, RIM has denied any problems in the development of the hardware.



Abramsky believes RIM could even offer some form of virtualization or emulation to allow Android applications to run on the PlayBook. He noted that devices running Google's "Honeycomb" version of the Android operating system do not yet appear "fully baked."
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 77
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,712member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    Though a slew of "iPad killers" were introduced at last week's Consumer Electronics Show, none of those tablets are expected to unseat Apple's iPad as the top-selling device, numerous Wall Street analysts said Monday.



    Gosh that's a surprise



    That's why AAPL is still going, going, going ....
  • Reply 2 of 77
    ihxoihxo Posts: 567member
    real artists ship.
  • Reply 3 of 77
    iPad is the genuine article. PlayBook? bah! Xoom? meh! Galaxy? next!
  • Reply 4 of 77
    povilaspovilas Posts: 473member
    Of course it's the leader.
  • Reply 5 of 77
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Splash-reverse View Post


    iPad is the genuine article. PlayBook? bah! Xoom? meh! Galaxy? next!



    I thought the PlayBook?s speed and UI was pretty slick. How that relates to real world usability and longevity is another question.
  • Reply 6 of 77
    sflocalsflocal Posts: 6,090member
    Well I'm just shocked at that. The naysayers and trolls all clamored as to how "crippled" the iPad is and how no one would EVER buy the iPad.



    It's a big iPod Touch,

    Doesn't have a keyboard,

    It's not "open",

    <insert additional whining here>,

    etc...



    Now, it seems the entire PC industry is out to build one, and suddenly those same folks are now saying how the formfactor / tablet (except now it's fanboy Android) will "suddenly" be what everyone was asking for.



    Well now that Android is becoming the Microsoft Windows of the mobile industry. The same reason why Windows is maligned (and forcibly accepted by the masses) will be the same moniker that will get slapped on every android device. Used by many, but hated by most. Except of course, the tech-heads... who think they know better than anyone else what the market should have.
  • Reply 7 of 77
    How about a decent iPad competitor first!?
  • Reply 8 of 77
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sflocal View Post


    Well I'm just shocked at that. The naysayers and trolls all clamored as to how "crippled" the iPad is and how no one would EVER buy the iPad.



    It's a big iPod Touch,

    Doesn't have a keyboard,

    It's not "open",

    <insert additional whining here>,

    etc?



    What I find most hysterical are people that called it a giant iPod despite the UI and apps being rewritten specifically for the I/O, yet they call the Galaxy Tab running Android 2.x for smartphones and with ½ the display area a better tablet.
  • Reply 9 of 77
    The most interesting single word in this post is Ticonderoga's "ecosystem." While the techies object to Apple's "walled garden," Apple is building, I think toward a "compute anywhere" user environment in which the Apple's new mega-server-farm will hold its customers' data--encrypted, of course--and allow us to log in on any Mac or iOS device, anywhere, and operate in our own customized environment, as saved, with all our apps, on the servers. And the average customer, even pretty sophisticated ones, will absolutely love being able to sit down anywhere and work as if they were at their office or home desk, easy chair, commuter's seat, etc. iPad, iPhone, or Mac, that's the Apple user's future, I believe.
  • Reply 10 of 77
    desarcdesarc Posts: 642member
    iPad2 will be the iPad killer, and everyone else will have to stop bragging about how their vaporware is better than last year's apple tech.
  • Reply 11 of 77
    maestro64maestro64 Posts: 5,043member
    gee the analyst had to go and see for themselves to figure this out, people is not about the hardware, it is about the experience, and no other company has any plans for a total experience.



    It is ike going to Disney World without the characters, the hotels, and the mono rail, yes it is a nice parks but it is missing things that you come to expect when you shell out $ to go stay.
  • Reply 12 of 77
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by scades View Post


    The most interesting single word in this post is Ticonderoga's "ecosystem." While the techies object to Apple's "walled garden," Apple is building, I think toward a "compute anywhere" user environment in which the Apple's new mega-server-farm will hold its customers' data--encrypted, of course--and allow us to log in on any Mac or iOS device, anywhere, and operate in our own customized environment, as saved, with all our apps, on the servers. And the average customer, even pretty sophisticated ones, will absolutely love being able to sit down anywhere and work as if they were at their office or home desk, easy chair, commuter's seat, etc. iPad, iPhone, or Mac, that's the Apple user's future, I believe.



    iOS has the potential to be an excellent thin client platform.

    For most knowledge workers the modern desktop PC and OS is overkill.
  • Reply 13 of 77
    sflocalsflocal Posts: 6,090member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    What I find most hysterical are people that called it a giant iPod despite the UI and apps being rewritten specifically for the I/O, yet they call the Galaxy Tab running Android 2.x for smartphones and with ½ the display area a better tablet.



    Yes, the hypocrisy of the non-iOS tablet hounds know no bounds.
  • Reply 14 of 77
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by desarc View Post


    iPad2 will be the iPad killer, and everyone else will have to stop bragging about how their vaporware is better than last year's apple tech.



    True. true.
  • Reply 15 of 77
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,712member
    double post somehow!
  • Reply 16 of 77
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,712member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by desarc View Post


    iPad2 will be the iPad killer, and everyone else will have to stop bragging about how their vaporware is better than last year's apple tech.



    Of course the reason it was all vaporware at CES is they all have to wait to see the iPad 2 so they can copy all the new ideas.
  • Reply 17 of 77
    so much for all the iPad wannabe LOL. I think Google need to get more copy machines to copy whatever Apple coming up to even think about competing with Apple.
  • Reply 18 of 77
    I know a lot of Apple's competitors have "rushed" to add tablets to their product line....but tech is so fast-moving and Apple doesn't lay employees off in recessions. They redouble their efforts in R&D and when the economy does come around Apple is positioned to take first, fast and full advantage.



    RIM, HP, MS, Dell, Sony...it's almost like me starting to make a tablet in my garage thinking I'm going to sell a "S**tload" of Tablets. I would never ever catch up even to the first iPad iteration and Apple is ready to release their second gen. Very much like the iPod which had 75% of the MP# player market and yet Apple still improved the whole iPod line every year or so.



    Not to mention the Apple "eco-system" which I think is still misunderstood by Apple's competitors. Or perhaps it is ignored because creating a Dell ecosystem is viewed as an insurmountable problem that has to be "surmounted!" And it's easier to just kind of brush it away.



    Also, Apple is investing in the research of batteries, materials/alloys/glass and improvements in manufacturing (eg., unibody construction. coatings, etc.)



    It's a good thing for these companies that Apple came out with the iPad. At least Apple provided a "template' with the iPad from which to "reverse-engineer."



    Which is whole lot easier than starting with a clean piece of paper. Just ask MS/Gates who have been "titting" around with tablets for 10 years with zero to show for it.



    Other Tablets are DOA!



    Oh well, I have to get back to my garage!



    Best
  • Reply 19 of 77
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    What I find most hysterical are people that called it a giant iPod despite the UI and apps being rewritten specifically for the I/O, yet they call the Galaxy Tab running Android 2.x for smartphones and with ½ the display area a better tablet.



    I need someone to explain to me (call me troll or stupid if you need to) how the iPad is not "a giant iPod." The UI is the same--touchscreen and home/volume/mute/power buttons. Some apps are written differently for the large screen, but most magnify to fill the larger screen. The 3G model adds mobile functionality and GPS, but the wifi version is the same as the 2009 iPod Touch.



    I'm not saying that is a bad thing. If the iPad 2 becomes a "giant 2010 iPod Touch," with camera(s), Facetime and built-in microphone, I will buy one. The other rumored changes would be nice but not necessary to me. If not, then I will wait for version 3 or 4 or 5...



    The Galaxy Tab and every other Android tablet I've seen is a waste of money compared to the iPad.
  • Reply 20 of 77
    hill60hill60 Posts: 6,992member
    The Motorola Xoom was probably the best of the competing tablets, it was demonstrated showing a VIDEO of how honeycomb is going to look.



    Of course it appeals to those who don't want Apple, the type that seem to be easily amused by the shiny beads and trinkets Google uses to lure them into their advertising funded spyware web.
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