Rush to compete with Apple's iPad places strain on component suppliers
As device makers hope to take on Apple's iPad in 2011, the plethora of devices set to come to market is reportedly placing a significant strain on component makers, which could cause "disruptions" in the global supply of display panels.
According to Taiwan's DigiTimes, the display industry is expected to experience both shortages and excess inventories throughout 2011. iSuppli IHS has predicted that global tablet shipments will more than triple in 2011, reaching 57.6 million units, with Apple retaining the lion's share of shipments with 70.4 percent.
Because the tablet market is growing but the true sales potential remains unknown, display suppliers will be "forced to gamble production capacity on the unrealistically high projections of their tablet customers," said Joe Abelson, vice president of displays at IHS. Manufacturers adopting different display sizes and specs will lead to shortages and excesses in 2011, he predicted.
A side effect of this strain could be heavy discounts on unused displays, or even scrapping of unwanted hardware. iSuppli also believes the demand for netbooks will continue to shrink as tablets grow.
In 2012, iSuppli sees Apple retaining 61.7 percent of the tablet market with the iPad. Competitors are expected to increase their share, splitting up the remaining 38.3 percent of sales.
DigiTimes has previously reported that Apple's overseas partners are set to begin production of the next-generation iPad this month. In all, about a half-million iPads are expected to be assembled as Apple stocks up for a forthcoming launch of the second-generation device.
Forecasts for this year also call for a "breakthrough" in manufacturing of active-matrix organic LED displays. Investments in AMOLED are seen as finally paying off, making the screens more popular in mobile devices, and perhaps even appearing in HDTVs for sale on retail shelves.
The Taiwanese industry publication reported in December that constrained supplies of AMOLED screens would keep the display from Apple's next-generation iPad. The Cupertino, Calif., company will reportedly stick with an LCD screen for the second-generation tablet.
According to Taiwan's DigiTimes, the display industry is expected to experience both shortages and excess inventories throughout 2011. iSuppli IHS has predicted that global tablet shipments will more than triple in 2011, reaching 57.6 million units, with Apple retaining the lion's share of shipments with 70.4 percent.
Because the tablet market is growing but the true sales potential remains unknown, display suppliers will be "forced to gamble production capacity on the unrealistically high projections of their tablet customers," said Joe Abelson, vice president of displays at IHS. Manufacturers adopting different display sizes and specs will lead to shortages and excesses in 2011, he predicted.
A side effect of this strain could be heavy discounts on unused displays, or even scrapping of unwanted hardware. iSuppli also believes the demand for netbooks will continue to shrink as tablets grow.
In 2012, iSuppli sees Apple retaining 61.7 percent of the tablet market with the iPad. Competitors are expected to increase their share, splitting up the remaining 38.3 percent of sales.
DigiTimes has previously reported that Apple's overseas partners are set to begin production of the next-generation iPad this month. In all, about a half-million iPads are expected to be assembled as Apple stocks up for a forthcoming launch of the second-generation device.
Forecasts for this year also call for a "breakthrough" in manufacturing of active-matrix organic LED displays. Investments in AMOLED are seen as finally paying off, making the screens more popular in mobile devices, and perhaps even appearing in HDTVs for sale on retail shelves.
The Taiwanese industry publication reported in December that constrained supplies of AMOLED screens would keep the display from Apple's next-generation iPad. The Cupertino, Calif., company will reportedly stick with an LCD screen for the second-generation tablet.
Comments
apple and SJ have worked their contracts and volumes-best price, best volumes best delivery date. SJ is fleet of foot, and we know who will win the race.
others pick up the scraps and AT A HIGHER PRICE AND LESS TIMELY
SJ is awesome
so no wonder others have to push 7" pads they can't get the cost low as SJ and
well, apple wins AGAIN. yea SJ
It's similar to the situation back when Apple was the first to receive one of the new Intel chips - and was able to ship the Mac Pro with the next generation chips before anyone else simply because Intel couldn't yet produce enough chips for HP or Dell, but had plenty for Apple's needs.
Same thing applies with AMOLED. Eventually, they'll start producing 7 to 10" screens, but the quantity will be far too limited for the iPad at first. That means that the competitors will have a period when they can offer AMOLED screens while the iPad can't (same thing with the iPhone today). This is compounded by the fact that the iPad needs a 10" screen while the competitors are mostly using 7".
With introduction of new technologies, smaller players very often benefit for some time before the big guys can do anything. The public sees this as "Big Company X moves too slowly - look at Little Company Y which already offers this feature" when, in reality, it may simply be component availability.
I doubt if it's going to have all that much impact on sales, but it will activate all the trolls and 'analysts' who will insist that the competitors have passed Apple because of their 'superior' screen technology.
Sounds like lots of wasted components.
The word "plethora" reminded me of 'phlegm' - something you'd cough up to make yourself feel a little better. Gotta get it out of your system. The execs pushing their companies to cough up these devices aren't visionaries, they aren't changing the world, they aren't leaders, and no one will remember them once they're gone. So they cough these things up, just to make themselves feel better.
Sounds like lots of wasted components.
My thoughts exactly.
The AMOLED situation will hurt Apple somewhat. Not a lot, but it will have an impact.
...
Same thing applies with AMOLED. Eventually, they'll start producing 7 to 10" screens, but the quantity will be far too limited for the iPad at first. That means that the competitors will have a period when they can offer AMOLED screens while the iPad can't (same thing with the iPhone today). This is compounded by the fact that the iPad needs a 10" screen while the competitors are mostly using 7".
With introduction of new technologies, smaller players very often benefit for some time before the big guys can do anything. The public sees this as "Big Company X moves too slowly - look at Little Company Y which already offers this feature" when, in reality, it may simply be component availability.
I doubt if it's going to have all that much impact on sales, but it will activate all the trolls and 'analysts' who will insist that the competitors have passed Apple because of their 'superior' screen technology.
I don't think AMOLED will have any impact at all. Besides nerds and tech-guys, nobody really cares. AMOLED is and will be much dimmer than LED-backlit for a long time coming. I think if a customer decides because of the display, he will take the iPad, just because it's much brighter.
You might argue now that AMOLED has better contrast because of better blacks.
But Apple still has some room to improve on the iPads LED-Screen. Remember the iPhone4 has an LED backlit LCD-Screen, like the iPad. But the iPhones blacklevels are just fantastic compared to the iPad. There's definitely room to improve.
And customers don't care for the tech, if it looks much better.
The word "plethora" reminded me of 'phlegm' - something you'd cough up to make yourself feel a little better. Gotta get it out of your system. The execs pushing their companies to cough up these devices aren't visionaries, they aren't changing the world, they aren't leaders, and no one will remember them once they're gone. So they cough these things up, just to make themselves feel better.
Just curious. It seems a strange connection for you to make. Was it based on the first letter or some experience in life that connected these two disparate words in your mind?
I don't think AMOLED will have any impact at all. Besides nerds and tech-guys, nobody really cares. AMOLED is and will be much dimmer than LED-backlit for a long time coming. I think if a customer decides because of the display, he will take the iPad, just because it's much brighter.
OLEDs are very bright -- brighter than LCD -- but the whites are "dirty."
In all, about a half-million iPads are expected to be assembled as Apple stocks up for a forthcoming launch of the second-generation device.
Apple is gonna need a whole lot more than that! I doubt Apple will be able to keep up with demand through out the entire year. Get ready for long lines and wait times.
The AMOLED situation will hurt Apple somewhat. Not a lot, but it will have an impact.
It's similar to the situation back when Apple was the first to receive one of the new Intel chips - and was able to ship the Mac Pro with the next generation chips before anyone else simply because Intel couldn't yet produce enough chips for HP or Dell, but had plenty for Apple's needs.
Same thing applies with AMOLED. Eventually, they'll start producing 7 to 10" screens, but the quantity will be far too limited for the iPad at first. ...
Your argument is predicated on the idea that Apple might use OLED screens for iPads, but this will never happen unless the OLED technology evolves to be something it currently isn't.
Apple has always prided itself on it's displays and has a great following of artists and visual arts professionals who have always bought Macs for exactly that reason. Apple *always* has the best displays, even back to the CRT days, and colour accuracy/fidelity is the most important aspect of that.
OLED screens "pop" and appear vividly coloured to the average person, and that sells. They also have ridiculously great contrast and probably would work well in the average television set sold at WalMart.
They *don't* however, have anything even close to accurate colour reproduction and will never be used in an Apple product unless they change so much it wouldn't be fair to compare them to the OLED screens we are talking about today. Apple is not going to screw over it's oldest customer base just cause the average person likes over-saturated colours.
Apple has always prided itself on it's displays and has a great following of artists and visual arts professionals who have always bought Macs for exactly that reason. Apple *always* has the best displays, even back to the CRT days, and colour accuracy/fidelity is the most important aspect of that.
That may be true for the decades before but not anymore; today I'd would not say Apple make the best displays per picture quality or color accuracy.
The AMOLED situation will hurt Apple somewhat. Not a lot, but it will have an impact.
It's similar to the situation back when Apple was the first to receive one of the new Intel chips - and was able to ship the Mac Pro with the next generation chips before anyone else simply because Intel couldn't yet produce enough chips for HP or Dell, but had plenty for Apple's needs.
Same thing applies with AMOLED. Eventually, they'll start producing 7 to 10" screens, but the quantity will be far too limited for the iPad at first. That means that the competitors will have a period when they can offer AMOLED screens while the iPad can't (same thing with the iPhone today). This is compounded by the fact that the iPad needs a 10" screen while the competitors are mostly using 7".
With introduction of new technologies, smaller players very often benefit for some time before the big guys can do anything. The public sees this as "Big Company X moves too slowly - look at Little Company Y which already offers this feature" when, in reality, it may simply be component availability.
I doubt if it's going to have all that much impact on sales, but it will activate all the trolls and 'analysts' who will insist that the competitors have passed Apple because of their 'superior' screen technology.
I don't see any other tablet using an AMOLED screen this year. They're still very expensive in that size. And what bothers me, is the talk of just how bright these screens are, when every test shows them to be at the bottom of the heap in brightness. It seems as though the black background is making people think that the whites are much brighter than they are. Meanwhile, the iPhone screen is at least twice as bright as the brightest screen of the newest phones using them. They also use more power than those promoting them want to admit.
I think Apple will use AMOLEDS when the cost comes down, and the brightness and power demands are better.
I've seen some of the "breakthrough" AMOLED displays. In fact, I have one right here. They have some nice qualities, including relatively low power usage and brightness. The resolution is pretty good, too, but the color quality is not great. OLEDs are opposite to LCDs. In LCDs, the difficultly is creating a good black. OLEDs have great blacks, but they have poor whites. As you can imagine, a bad white is more noticeable than a bad black is.
OLEDs are very bright -- brighter than LCD -- but the whites are "dirty."
No, they're not bright at all. In fact, even the best of them are dim when compared to a good Backlit LCD, and I'm really tired of reading how bright they are. Even the latest generation of AMOLEDs from Samsung are much dimmer than the iPhone 4 screen.
In addition, Apple received a couple of patents lately that can make LCd backlights much brighter, and more color accurate. When we'll see the results of that, I don't know. But LCDs have some room for improvement yet.
Apple is gonna need a whole lot more than that! I doubt Apple will be able to keep up with demand through out the entire year. Get ready for long lines and wait times.
Exactly my thoughts!! How are they going to serve all the millions of people waiting to upgrade, not to mention the first buyers! God help us all!
OLEDs are very bright -- brighter than LCD -- but the whites are "dirty."
Isn’t that a straw man argument since LCD’s require a backlight or are you saying that OLEDs are brighter than LED backlights? Anecdotally, the iPhone 4’s LED backlight beats any AMOLED device I’ve compared it to.
There is also plenty of evidence to suggest that AMOLED also consumes significantly *more* power than LCD. If you keep your interface mostly black most of the time, then sure AMOLED might use less power, but unlike LED-backlit-LCD which keeps the screen illuminated with a handful of LEDs, once you have to turn on some colors with OLED, those thousands of LEDs start drinkin' the juice, and if you have to display something white - look out, cause you have to turn 'em all on - Ka Pow! Last time I checked, most web sites have white backgrounds....
You maybe disagree with me on this by see the launch of the CDMA iPhone 4, but it still looks the same one already on the seen with no major changes to warrant a new marker for the release.
Cycles for revamps are:
Jan: "Open"
April: iPad
July: iPhone
Oct: "Open"
As on screen issue, were looking at another 3 years before AMOLED's are at right price, right supplies, and better current market offerings, and any other point i've may of missed... this is were the deal of buying out Sony would of come in handy, they would have a ready made infrastructure for product manufacturing as-well as new markets too enter, i think Apple will move into this direction soon, the signs are already out there, retail outlet chain, design own chips, expansion of brand with many products, may move into design of other internal parts, etc.