Up to 20% of original iPad buyers predicted to upgrade to Apple's iPad 2

Posted:
in iPad edited January 2014
Of the 15 million iPads sold by Apple in 2010, between 15 and 20 percent of those early adopters will upgrade to the iPad 2, one analyst believes.



Mike Abramsky with RBC Capital Markets sees up to a fifth of original iPad buyers switching to the iPad 2 over the next 12 months. But most who buy an iPad 2 in 2011 will be new to the platform, and Abramsky expects Apple will sell 28 million of its touchscreen tablet in this calendar year.



He expects those sales to get off to a strong start this weekend, as Apple may sell more than 500,000 of the iPad 2 after it goes on sale today at 5 p.m. That would nearly double the 300,000 first-gen iPads sold on launch day last April.



The launch will also be bolstered by more than 10 times larger retail distribution, at nearly 10,000 stores, including Apple's retail outlets, Best Buy, Verizon Wireless, AT&T, Target and Walmart. The analyst said initial sales could exceed his estimates if available stock is greater than expected on launch weekend.



New buyers likely waited for the second-generation device, looking for upgrades from the initial product and also waiting to gauge the popularity of the tablet form factor, Abramsky believes. He sees the global tablet market growing to sales of 50 million devices in 2011, a number that would give Apple's estimated sales a 56 percent share of the worldwide market.



If Apple does take 56 percent of the market in 2011, that would be a decrease from the 83 percent of shipments Apple represented in 2010. But a new survey revealed this week also showed that most who plan to buy a tablet -- 82 percent -- said they will choose Apple's iPad.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 44
    and this is based on AT LEAST entire 3 minutes of moderate thought. a great way to do research! thanks!
  • Reply 2 of 44
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by OllieWallieWhiskers View Post


    and this is based on AT LEAST entire 3 minutes of moderate thought. a great way to do research! thanks!



    Heh. Still, it will be interesting to see if the owners of a very new product are already prepared to upgrade.



    There's an impact for Apple here, in terms of what happens to those original iPads. Many will be passed along to the kids, some donated, some will be sold at a discount on eBay.



    Since these used iPads are, after all, practically new, their distribution (however its done) will definitely hinder sales of competing devices.



    One way or another, Apple dominates this market.
  • Reply 3 of 44
    docpopsdocpops Posts: 12member
    I just sold my 16G wifi only on Craigslist for $300 and ordered a new one this am. After a week without it, what I miss most is reading on it, even though I still use my Kindle when I am out places. I can see the value of upgrading if only for the lighter form factor and speed of internet page loading. Hopefully video will be a nice feature.
  • Reply 4 of 44
    I will not be one of the 20% because I wanted the retina display.
  • Reply 5 of 44
    apple ][apple ][ Posts: 9,233member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ArchAngel21x View Post


    I will not be one of the 20% because I wanted the retina display.



    You shouldn't believe everything that you read on the internet, especially unfounded, ridiculous rumors that get spread around so much, that some gullible people actually start to believe in them.

  • Reply 6 of 44
    ghostface147ghostface147 Posts: 1,629member
    I wonder what the percentage is of people don't ever plan to get any tablet?
  • Reply 7 of 44
    chronsterchronster Posts: 1,894member
    20% sounds about right when you think of how many people are diehard Apple fanatics who have to have every latest and greatest gadget from Apple these days...
  • Reply 8 of 44
    damn_its_hotdamn_its_hot Posts: 1,209member
    I spoke with the mgr at local Best Buy yesterday and confirmed that they would not sell till 5PM. The interesting bit though was that supposedly they had been promised that ALL stores would get 5 OF EACH model. 3 Mem configs * 3 radio configs = 9 models; 9 models * 2 colors = 18 SKUs * 5 each = 90 iPad2's * 5500 stores (?) = 495,000 iPads just for Best Buy. Now I know it came from some store mgr di@k (big store - but certainly not the regional mgr) but if that was what they had been promised (or even close) almost half million iPad2's for one outlet - No wonder WalMart only had 4 on hand.
  • Reply 9 of 44
    pridonpridon Posts: 81member
    Re the non Apple products. Why would anyone want to pay more for less. What Android vendors offer training sessions for new users and handholding such as helping you set up/move apps etc.
  • Reply 10 of 44
    apple ][apple ][ Posts: 9,233member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by pridon View Post


    What Android vendors offer training sessions for new users and handholding such as helping you set up/move apps etc.



    Helping somebody set up their android tablet with apps should be a fairly simple process, considering that there are virtually no apps for it.

  • Reply 11 of 44
    damn_its_hotdamn_its_hot Posts: 1,209member
    I thought I bought myself an iPad a year ago - that is until I made the mistake of showing my wife and daughter my cool new device. I get <10% time, way less. So I told my wife that today I was going to get MY iPad2 - here's hoping I get it for 50% of the time maybe.



    BTW: I will be trying my luck at the Apple Store this evening. (fingers crossed and mumbling please have a 64G AT&T Black).
  • Reply 12 of 44
    radjinradjin Posts: 165member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post


    Helping somebody set up their android tablet with apps should be a fairly simple process, considering that there are virtually no apps for it.





    It is simple. Download an app, get a virus, return your Android tablet and get an iPad.
  • Reply 13 of 44
    damn_its_hotdamn_its_hot Posts: 1,209member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post


    Helping somebody set up their android tablet with apps should be a fairly simple process, considering that there are virtually no apps for it.





    But somebody does need to show them how to install an antivirus pkg & of course probably how to root it.
  • Reply 14 of 44
    damn_its_hotdamn_its_hot Posts: 1,209member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Radjin View Post


    It is simple. Download an app, get a virus, return your Android tablet and get an iPad.



    You beat me!
  • Reply 15 of 44
    moewmoew Posts: 41member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Radjin View Post


    It is simple. Download an app, get a virus, return your Android tablet and get an iPad.



    Then return your ipad when you get an ios virus. Now what?





    It's one thing to poke some fun and have a laugh, but don't cry when the truth bites your hand!
  • Reply 16 of 44
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post


    You shouldn't believe everything that you read on the internet, especially unfounded, ridiculous rumors that get spread around so much, that some gullible people actually start to believe in them.





    Are you talking about a future iPad with retina display, or that 20% of iPad owners will upgrade?



    Or both?
  • Reply 17 of 44
    drdbdrdb Posts: 99member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Radjin View Post


    It is simple. Download an app, get a virus, return your Android tablet and get an iPad.



    No no no. You've missed a bit. It's download an app, get a virus, download the fix, find out the fix is actually another virus, THEN return it.
  • Reply 18 of 44
    jmmxjmmx Posts: 341member
    I would expect upgraders to be in the 30-45% range, perhaps even higher, though this over the next couple of months. Many are aery adopters, so they will what the latest-greatest. And it is not like you just trash the old one. You hand it down to the kid, or sell it on Craigslist, etc.



    This is a very compelling upgrade with the cams and very significant speed boost.
  • Reply 19 of 44
    apple ][apple ][ Posts: 9,233member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MOEW View Post


    don't cry when the truth bites your hand!



    What truth would that be? Apple's App store is closed, you know, the very thing that the fandroids like to whine, moan and complain about. Having a closed App store has it's advantages. The Apps actually have to go through an approval process and be approved by Apple.



    This is in stark contrast to the Android market, where it's so open that anybody can release their junk there. And that includes the 50 malware infested programs that were recently discovered there.
  • Reply 20 of 44
    apple ][apple ][ Posts: 9,233member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by wheeles View Post


    Are you talking about a future iPad with retina display, or that 20% of iPad owners will upgrade?



    Or both?



    I was thinking mainly about the ridiculous rumors of the Ipad2 having a retina display. I can't believe that anybody actually fell for that one. Sadly, quite a few people did.
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