That is unlikely. People don't need a tablet. They want one. You aren't going to go buy an Android based Tablet if you really want an iPad just because you have to wait a little while for one.
Further, Android Tablets cost more and perform less well. You would be disappointed with your purchase. I think the contender to watch will be WebOS if HP can gain developer interest.
In the Ann Arbor Michigan Store on Saturday (you know the next day), there was a line about forty people deep. Strange since I asked the Store people how many the Store had. The answer was twenty. Perhaps they were giving out first access to new shipments. The point is people who want a serious Tablet are going to wait for the iPad.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Morky
The problem for Apple in maintaining dominance in tablets is that if they can't make enough for everyone who wants one, it will give a major boost the soon-to-be bonanza of Android tablets. I can't see them maintaining this close to this kind of market share in the long run, but the market will be so big, it is still going to quadruple the size of the company.
Man, if I believe that, I should go buy more stock right now, shouldn't I?
Apple once had a tremendous lead in personal computers, now they have 3-4% of a market dominated by Microsoft Windows (92+%). Only a couple of years ago Apple seemed to have a totally insurmountable lead in smartphones, today the IPhone is #3 in the US and #4 in the world, and Android, which nobody took seriously only a year ago, is number one in the world (both in sales and total units in use). Apple is the clear leader in a market which had essentially zero competitors until about a week ago (when the Xoom came out) and it is clear that Motorola pushed the release date earlier then they wanted (Flash won't be working until this Friday and the SD card and 4G even later then that) in order to get in before the IPAd 2). But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category, and better quad core units are on the way) and almost certainly lower prices, the IPad 2 is going to take a big hit. Remember that Android is free and open and works very well, and even one of those criteria would make Android tablets a serious threat to Apple.
Look Jobs wouldn't continue to harp about how fragmented and silly Android was if he wasn't worried about it. He isn't worried about Windows mobile 7 or RIM, because they suck so bad, but if Android phone and tablet sales continue to increase at their present rate (about 900% in just one year) in a few years Apple will be about as relevant in mobile computing as they are in presently in PCs. I would love to see Apple remain a serious force in mobile computing, but IPods are going to disappear soon (it just doesn't make sense to have a separate device that doesn't do anything that any smartphone can do), Macs are a tiny niche market, Iphones are losing market share rapidly to Android, and there are finally going to be competitors to IPad. If Apple doesn't open their OS to other companies then IOS will whither away, that's just a fact.
1. Apple never had a lead in smartphone marketshare.
2. You realize that if you sold 1 cell phone one month, and 6 months later you sold 9, that's a 900% increase Your reasoning is similar to that which was used when all the iPod competitors were coming out; the iPod has maintained a 70 - 90% marketshare for the past 10 YEARS now.
3. The highest market share the Mac ever had at any given time was around 20%.
That is unlikely. People don't need a tablet. They want one. You aren't going to go buy an Android based Tablet if you really want an iPad just because you have to wait a little while for one.
Further, Android Tablets cost more and perform less well. You would be disappointed with your purchase. I think the contender to watch will be WebOS if HP can gain developer interest.
In the Ann Arbor Michigan Store on Saturday (you know the next day), there was a line about forty people deep. Strange since I asked the Store people how many the Store had. The answer was twenty. Perhaps they were giving out first access to new shipments. The point is people who want a serious Tablet are going to wait for the iPad.
You don't need a toilet either, but most people consider them essential to modern living.
Only if Apple rests on its laurels. The thing that concerns me however, if the iPad does indeed go on to dominate the tablety market, is when the cries of "monopoly" will start. Any company that has 80%+ share of a market will surely attract the attention of government stooges. The assumption is that no company can be so good as to dominate a market legally and legitimately. "All corporations are evil" is the anti-business battle cry.
Natural monopolies are completely legal. But many people don't know that so yes, people will start crying soon.
Wouldn't it be just terrible for you if Apple declares a one time dividend of $30 per share as of some time of record for share ownership, and you were still dithering over their cash?
Being an early adopter for the original iPad (I waited in line before the store opened when it came out, and was one of the first to pick up a 32GB model) I wasn't as enthused for the iPad 2 so I haven't bought one.
I mean it sounds nice that it has a faster processor, but the original already meets my needs for Netflix, surfing, and a couple of low profile games. I'd like to see more OS improvements, not necessarily hardware improvements. For example, I think getting files on and off the device just plain sucks. I also would like a better way to manage apps. The folders are too small and lack any real way of identifying what's in them other than the name. I don't necessarily want pages full of icons all the time.
I stopped in to Best Buy this Friday to look at a MacBook Air and coincidentally, it was when people were waiting in line for the iPad 2. The lines for iPad 2 were far greater than they were for the original. In fact it went around the corner of the store I visited. This surprised the hell out of me. However, a lot of new users are now fully on board with the Apple tablet.
I also had the opportunity to play with a Motorola Xoom. It seemed heavy, and the OS navigation didn't make a lot of sense to me. Angry Birds played fine though. :P
talking crap and mis-informing the readers here on AI -- people will read this GEEKAZOID's rant and believe it like its GOSPEL ... so i BLASTED HIM .... i feel better now ... and NO I don't need drugs -
DO U WANT A ZOLOFT or XANAX ??? or maybe u are PC troll too??? HERE TROLLY , TROLLY , TROLLY...
I was one of the LUCKY ONES, i hopped on a bus from the Port Authority in NYC and got my new 64GB White WiFi iPad2 friday at the Fairview North Bergen NJ store @ 5pm and I love it I am a HAPPY CAMPER and APPLE is my DRUG of CHOICE want a bite??
What is Apple's market share for real computers that cost over $1,000? The plastic junk at costco will never appeal to those that value nice things and a wonderful, efficient, virus free, relatively trouble free computing experience.
I have a cell phone that costco threw at me for free. Is this what Android users include in the hyper competitive market for mobile phones? What is Apple's share for smart phones that actually have some of the functionality of the iPhone?
And better yet, what is Apple's share of the PROFITS in these markets?
It looks like a lot of Android fans have adopted the Thurrott technique of looking for some number that might shed a negative light on our favorite fruit company. P. Thurrott focused on the market share numbers while the PC market fought over pennies of profit and Apple brought in fistfuls of cash, laughing all the way to the bank.
I see incredible, lust-worthy engineering that appeals to both men and women, combined with dominant cost advantages. Throw in the best apps and the overwhelming size and scope of the App store and a 3rd party accessory ecosystem and it just looks impossible to compete with.
My wife saw the short video on the smart cover and immediately decided to trade in her iPad. This is powerful stuff.
That said, I love competition and have the highest hopes for Android. It will help keep Apple sharp and focused and innovating.
I wouldn't be surprised if the iPad ends up with a greater percentage of the tablet market than the iPod does of the PMP market. Like the iPod, it's not a necessity whereas phones are, so people won't settle for cheap knockoffs just because they have to, not to mention that the cheap knockoffs are absolute junk and even the expensive ones are pretty bad in quality whereas some of those Android phones seem pretty good (though not built as well as iPhones, of course).
Just as Apple haters focused on the Macs and PCs even long after Jobs conceded that battle and Apple was dominating the music market, I won't be surprised if they ignore the iPad's success and keep pointing out Android's marketshare over the iPhone (as if it were a failure!). You'd think that with such massive marketshare, all the developers would have migrated from the App Store by now; they must all be fanboys drinking the Kool-Aid!
Some people will have very limited uses for a tablet and may choose a different brand if they only wanted to serf the web. Of course that would require someone to release a tablet that is significantly cheaper then the iPad. That was widely predicted a year ago, but it seems that isn't going to materialize. Google is still good enough to be an underdog, but they will continue to have trouble competing with too many offerings on the table. Google tablets will also suffer from supply chain issues related to too many different devices out there. As long as they never stagnate, Apple will stay on top.
It might be interesting if they could do the same to the phone market if they release a lower-end iPhone to compete with the Android market. A superior supply chain coupled with a very good product might allow them to overtake the low-end smartphone market where Android is making large share gains.
Some people will be content to get something that costs $150 and is complete garbage.
From my useless trove of precious anecdotal data, I call this the grandma market. Little Timmy wants an XBox so badly and grandma wants very much to make her grandson happy so she goes out to get an XBox and seeing as how much it will eat up her retirement check she settles for the Chinese knock-off that costs a third of but looks close enough to an XBox and gets that for little Timmy instead.
When the present gets unwrapped is when we find out if little Timmy will grow up to be a fine upstanding citizen that his parents could be proud of or just another sleazy politician (or worse a Wall Street fat cat).
While watching the iPad 2 event I wondered why Apple was making so many digs at the competition. I said to myself, ?they already own the market they would easily have the majority of the profit and will easily take ⅓ to ½ of the profits, like with the iPhone.?
But I don?t think I was thinking big enough. I think Apple wants this to the iPod all over again. A ?natural monopoly.? They will surely make the iPad the 2nd most profitable segment of their business this year, but if they can make this another iPod in terms of marketshare despite growth it could be Apple?s most profitable segment in a few years.
I certainly contributed to it. After several attempts over the weekend to buy an iPad at several locations, I succumbed at bought them online last night. I was surprised a bit at the shipping time, April 14th.
Bought a white 64GB/3G for me and a white 16GB/3G as a long-overdue Xmas gift. They really hit the mark with the 2nd-gen.
By end of 2012 (if the world hasn't collapsed), they'll have sold more than 100 million iPads and counting...
The Mac was revolutionary but Windows knew more how to take advantage of it than Apple, relegating the Mac to a niche product.
.......
From someone who lived through it; the Business world wouldn't buy PCs until IBM made one. It didn't matter that the Mac was better it wasn't made by IBM. The Business world was the only one that could buy enough PCs to make it a realistic market ( remember the $10000 Compaqs?) There wasn't a very big home market for computers that cost a month's salary.
As a result we were stuck with DOS and the early versions of windows. XP was the first version that was as good as the first Mac. God, it feels like we were wandering in the desert for 15 years.
You're absolutely right. At the moment it's hard to see how anyone could come up with anything close to the same hardware performance for the same price. I don't doubt Samsung and Motorola will be scrambling at the moment to try and come up with a way to at least match Apple's hardware, but lets face it, they almost did that with iPad 1, but couldn't match the price, then iPad 2 came along.
Once they find a way to match iPad 2's hardware (and who knows at what cost), iPad 3 will be along.
The question is how can Motorola/Samsung et al jump two generations of iPad hardware while maintaining price parity? Even if they could match the iPad hardware performance for the same cost right now, Apple's advantage in terms of number of apps would still put the iPad as the sensible choice to buy.
Very astute!
I watched some Xoom demo and they showed, briefly, some primitive video editing software -- my initial thought was Oh-Oh Motorola is tipping their hand that they will supply some "House Apps" to compete with Apple's "House Apps".
Of course, the iMovie preso at the iPad 2 announce put those fears to bed.
But, on reflection, say MMI, Sammy or any of the "Android tab-mfgrs-to-be", wants to differentiate themself by supplying a "House App".
How would they be able to do that and limit it to their hardware only -- seems to me that it it would soon be running on any Android tablet -- maybe even the Playbook..
OTH, Apple iOS and apps run only on Apple hardware -- if you want the sizzle, you gotta' buy the steak!
I don't know how to quantify this except as a conundrum for developing "House Apps":
1) If you are Apple -- the more you do, the aheader you get!
2) If you are an Android tab mfgr. -- the more you do, the behinder you get!
Only if Apple rests on its laurels. The thing that concerns me however, if the iPad does indeed go on to dominate the tablety market, is when the cries of "monopoly" will start. Any company that has 80%+ share of a market will surely attract the attention of government stooges. The assumption is that no company can be so good as to dominate a market legally and legitimately. "All corporations are evil" is the anti-business battle cry.
Overwhelming market share is not enough to declare a company a monopoly deserving of regulation. You also have to show that a) there are significant barriers to entry and b) the company has committed actions in restraint of trade. I don't think anyone in his right mind would claim that a significant barrier to entry exists in the tablet market and Apple's lawyers, so far, have shown that they are smart enough to keep Apple from committing the sort of criminal antitrust acts that MS was convicted of.
The only thing stopping me adding more AAPL at the moment is their huge pile of cash.
Don't get me wrong, I think it's a positive thing to hold a decent amount, and I wait with interest to see what they do with it, but it's the sort of thing that no matter what Apple spend it on, the market will probably over-react and send their stock down, and that could represent an opportunity to buy at something of a discount.
They used $3.9 bn of their "pile of cash", according to Tim Cook, "to secure component supplies and capacity".
This is exactly what you want Apple to do with their cash, re-invest it in a business that is doubling in growth with large margins
Apple once had a tremendous lead in personal computers, now they have 3-4% of a market dominated by Microsoft Windows (92+%). Only a couple of years ago Apple seemed to have a totally insurmountable lead in smartphones, today the IPhone is #3 in the US and #4 in the world, and Android, which nobody took seriously only a year ago, is number one in the world (both in sales and total units in use). Apple is the clear leader in a market which had essentially zero competitors until about a week ago (when the Xoom came out) and it is clear that Motorola pushed the release date earlier then they wanted (Flash won't be working until this Friday and the SD card and 4G even later then that) in order to get in before the IPAd 2). But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category, and better quad core units are on the way) and almost certainly lower prices, the IPad 2 is going to take a big hit. Remember that Android is free and open and works very well, and even one of those criteria would make Android tablets a serious threat to Apple.
Look Jobs wouldn't continue to harp about how fragmented and silly Android was if he wasn't worried about it. He isn't worried about Windows mobile 7 or RIM, because they suck so bad, but if Android phone and tablet sales continue to increase at their present rate (about 900% in just one year) in a few years Apple will be about as relevant in mobile computing as they are in presently in PCs. I would love to see Apple remain a serious force in mobile computing, but IPods are going to disappear soon (it just doesn't make sense to have a separate device that doesn't do anything that any smartphone can do), Macs are a tiny niche market, Iphones are losing market share rapidly to Android, and there are finally going to be competitors to IPad. If Apple doesn't open their OS to other companies then IOS will whither away, that's just a fact.
The difference is that Apple has learned from their failure. You can look at the iPod for an example. They are willing to price their products as low as the competition is pricing theirs.
I think apple was prepared to lower the cost of iPad2 if Samsung or Motorola had come out with products that were competitive with the 499. I was ready for a 350 price during Mr Jobs presentation. And because Apple has the supply chain that they did not have with the original Macs, it's ready to challenge anyone with enough cajones to step to the plate.
It's foolish to think that consumers see the iPad and the knockoffs as equal in the marketplace, meaning they'll simply buy a Xoom since the iPad is temporarily sold out. The only people buying Xooms are those who are purposefully, intentionally NOT buying an iPad.
The iPod "natural monopoly" analogy is interesting and plausible, but the tablet market is still too nascent to really make that call just yet. Apple has an extraordinary lead here, and it may well be insurmountable. I personally don't see any competitor matching what Apple has to offer. Cheaper tablets will sell, but not very well. People are willing to pay for premium devices such as Apples, as evidenced by Mac sales outpacing the overall industry for the past 19 quarters.
I would agree except that Android has more than a foothold in the phone space at this point, largely thanks to the period of AT&T exclusivity. There are a lot of Android phone users out there that will stick with their platform, which may give Android tablets a foothold by extension. My larger point is, if the market for tablets reaches, say 500M, can Apple ever make close to that many? Perhaps, if the growth is incremental enough, but man, that's a lot of iPads.
Comments
Further, Android Tablets cost more and perform less well. You would be disappointed with your purchase. I think the contender to watch will be WebOS if HP can gain developer interest.
In the Ann Arbor Michigan Store on Saturday (you know the next day), there was a line about forty people deep. Strange since I asked the Store people how many the Store had. The answer was twenty. Perhaps they were giving out first access to new shipments. The point is people who want a serious Tablet are going to wait for the iPad.
The problem for Apple in maintaining dominance in tablets is that if they can't make enough for everyone who wants one, it will give a major boost the soon-to-be bonanza of Android tablets. I can't see them maintaining this close to this kind of market share in the long run, but the market will be so big, it is still going to quadruple the size of the company.
Man, if I believe that, I should go buy more stock right now, shouldn't I?
Apple once had a tremendous lead in personal computers, now they have 3-4% of a market dominated by Microsoft Windows (92+%). Only a couple of years ago Apple seemed to have a totally insurmountable lead in smartphones, today the IPhone is #3 in the US and #4 in the world, and Android, which nobody took seriously only a year ago, is number one in the world (both in sales and total units in use). Apple is the clear leader in a market which had essentially zero competitors until about a week ago (when the Xoom came out) and it is clear that Motorola pushed the release date earlier then they wanted (Flash won't be working until this Friday and the SD card and 4G even later then that) in order to get in before the IPAd 2). But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category, and better quad core units are on the way) and almost certainly lower prices, the IPad 2 is going to take a big hit. Remember that Android is free and open and works very well, and even one of those criteria would make Android tablets a serious threat to Apple.
Look Jobs wouldn't continue to harp about how fragmented and silly Android was if he wasn't worried about it. He isn't worried about Windows mobile 7 or RIM, because they suck so bad, but if Android phone and tablet sales continue to increase at their present rate (about 900% in just one year) in a few years Apple will be about as relevant in mobile computing as they are in presently in PCs. I would love to see Apple remain a serious force in mobile computing, but IPods are going to disappear soon (it just doesn't make sense to have a separate device that doesn't do anything that any smartphone can do), Macs are a tiny niche market, Iphones are losing market share rapidly to Android, and there are finally going to be competitors to IPad. If Apple doesn't open their OS to other companies then IOS will whither away, that's just a fact.
1. Apple never had a lead in smartphone marketshare.
2. You realize that if you sold 1 cell phone one month, and 6 months later you sold 9, that's a 900% increase
3. The highest market share the Mac ever had at any given time was around 20%.
That is unlikely. People don't need a tablet. They want one. You aren't going to go buy an Android based Tablet if you really want an iPad just because you have to wait a little while for one.
Further, Android Tablets cost more and perform less well. You would be disappointed with your purchase. I think the contender to watch will be WebOS if HP can gain developer interest.
In the Ann Arbor Michigan Store on Saturday (you know the next day), there was a line about forty people deep. Strange since I asked the Store people how many the Store had. The answer was twenty. Perhaps they were giving out first access to new shipments. The point is people who want a serious Tablet are going to wait for the iPad.
You don't need a toilet either, but most people consider them essential to modern living.
Only if Apple rests on its laurels. The thing that concerns me however, if the iPad does indeed go on to dominate the tablety market, is when the cries of "monopoly" will start. Any company that has 80%+ share of a market will surely attract the attention of government stooges. The assumption is that no company can be so good as to dominate a market legally and legitimately. "All corporations are evil" is the anti-business battle cry.
Natural monopolies are completely legal. But many people don't know that so yes, people will start crying soon.
Quote:
Wouldn't it be just terrible for you if Apple declares a one time dividend of $30 per share as of some time of record for share ownership, and you were still dithering over their cash?
Would be
I mean it sounds nice that it has a faster processor, but the original already meets my needs for Netflix, surfing, and a couple of low profile games. I'd like to see more OS improvements, not necessarily hardware improvements. For example, I think getting files on and off the device just plain sucks. I also would like a better way to manage apps. The folders are too small and lack any real way of identifying what's in them other than the name. I don't necessarily want pages full of icons all the time.
I stopped in to Best Buy this Friday to look at a MacBook Air and coincidentally, it was when people were waiting in line for the iPad 2. The lines for iPad 2 were far greater than they were for the original. In fact it went around the corner of the store I visited. This surprised the hell out of me. However, a lot of new users are now fully on board with the Apple tablet.
I also had the opportunity to play with a Motorola Xoom. It seemed heavy, and the OS navigation didn't make a lot of sense to me. Angry Birds played fine though. :P
Xanax prescription run out? :-)
talking crap and mis-informing the readers here on AI -- people will read this GEEKAZOID's rant and believe it like its GOSPEL ... so i BLASTED HIM .... i feel better now ... and NO I don't need drugs -
DO U WANT A ZOLOFT or XANAX ??? or maybe u are PC troll too??? HERE TROLLY , TROLLY , TROLLY...
I was one of the LUCKY ONES, i hopped on a bus from the Port Authority in NYC and got my new 64GB White WiFi iPad2 friday at the Fairview North Bergen NJ store @ 5pm and I love it I am a HAPPY CAMPER and APPLE is my DRUG of CHOICE want a bite??
(;-)
Dude, is this you? Seriously.
LOL.....perfect!
What is Apple's market share for real computers that cost over $1,000? The plastic junk at costco will never appeal to those that value nice things and a wonderful, efficient, virus free, relatively trouble free computing experience.
I have a cell phone that costco threw at me for free. Is this what Android users include in the hyper competitive market for mobile phones? What is Apple's share for smart phones that actually have some of the functionality of the iPhone?
And better yet, what is Apple's share of the PROFITS in these markets?
It looks like a lot of Android fans have adopted the Thurrott technique of looking for some number that might shed a negative light on our favorite fruit company. P. Thurrott focused on the market share numbers while the PC market fought over pennies of profit and Apple brought in fistfuls of cash, laughing all the way to the bank.
I see incredible, lust-worthy engineering that appeals to both men and women, combined with dominant cost advantages. Throw in the best apps and the overwhelming size and scope of the App store and a 3rd party accessory ecosystem and it just looks impossible to compete with.
My wife saw the short video on the smart cover and immediately decided to trade in her iPad. This is powerful stuff.
That said, I love competition and have the highest hopes for Android. It will help keep Apple sharp and focused and innovating.
You don't need a toilet either, but most people consider them essential to modern living.
Says you! I'm broke and I must have an iPad2, so I put my toilet up for sale on craigslist last night!
Just kidding of course.
I wouldn't be surprised if the iPad ends up with a greater percentage of the tablet market than the iPod does of the PMP market. Like the iPod, it's not a necessity whereas phones are, so people won't settle for cheap knockoffs just because they have to, not to mention that the cheap knockoffs are absolute junk and even the expensive ones are pretty bad in quality whereas some of those Android phones seem pretty good (though not built as well as iPhones, of course).
Just as Apple haters focused on the Macs and PCs even long after Jobs conceded that battle and Apple was dominating the music market, I won't be surprised if they ignore the iPad's success and keep pointing out Android's marketshare over the iPhone (as if it were a failure!). You'd think that with such massive marketshare, all the developers would have migrated from the App Store by now; they must all be fanboys drinking the Kool-Aid!
Some people will have very limited uses for a tablet and may choose a different brand if they only wanted to serf the web. Of course that would require someone to release a tablet that is significantly cheaper then the iPad. That was widely predicted a year ago, but it seems that isn't going to materialize. Google is still good enough to be an underdog, but they will continue to have trouble competing with too many offerings on the table. Google tablets will also suffer from supply chain issues related to too many different devices out there. As long as they never stagnate, Apple will stay on top.
It might be interesting if they could do the same to the phone market if they release a lower-end iPhone to compete with the Android market. A superior supply chain coupled with a very good product might allow them to overtake the low-end smartphone market where Android is making large share gains.
Some people will be content to get something that costs $150 and is complete garbage.
From my useless trove of precious anecdotal data, I call this the grandma market. Little Timmy wants an XBox so badly and grandma wants very much to make her grandson happy so she goes out to get an XBox and seeing as how much it will eat up her retirement check she settles for the Chinese knock-off that costs a third of but looks close enough to an XBox and gets that for little Timmy instead.
When the present gets unwrapped is when we find out if little Timmy will grow up to be a fine upstanding citizen that his parents could be proud of or just another sleazy politician (or worse a Wall Street fat cat).
While watching the iPad 2 event I wondered why Apple was making so many digs at the competition. I said to myself, ?they already own the market they would easily have the majority of the profit and will easily take ⅓ to ½ of the profits, like with the iPhone.?
But I don?t think I was thinking big enough. I think Apple wants this to the iPod all over again. A ?natural monopoly.? They will surely make the iPad the 2nd most profitable segment of their business this year, but if they can make this another iPod in terms of marketshare despite growth it could be Apple?s most profitable segment in a few years.
I certainly contributed to it. After several attempts over the weekend to buy an iPad at several locations, I succumbed at bought them online last night. I was surprised a bit at the shipping time, April 14th.
Bought a white 64GB/3G for me and a white 16GB/3G as a long-overdue Xmas gift. They really hit the mark with the 2nd-gen.
Glad to have you back solips!
By end of 2012 (if the world hasn't collapsed), they'll have sold more than 100 million iPads and counting...
The Mac was revolutionary but Windows knew more how to take advantage of it than Apple, relegating the Mac to a niche product.
.......
From someone who lived through it; the Business world wouldn't buy PCs until IBM made one. It didn't matter that the Mac was better it wasn't made by IBM. The Business world was the only one that could buy enough PCs to make it a realistic market ( remember the $10000 Compaqs?) There wasn't a very big home market for computers that cost a month's salary.
As a result we were stuck with DOS and the early versions of windows. XP was the first version that was as good as the first Mac. God, it feels like we were wandering in the desert for 15 years.
You're absolutely right. At the moment it's hard to see how anyone could come up with anything close to the same hardware performance for the same price. I don't doubt Samsung and Motorola will be scrambling at the moment to try and come up with a way to at least match Apple's hardware, but lets face it, they almost did that with iPad 1, but couldn't match the price, then iPad 2 came along.
Once they find a way to match iPad 2's hardware (and who knows at what cost), iPad 3 will be along.
The question is how can Motorola/Samsung et al jump two generations of iPad hardware while maintaining price parity? Even if they could match the iPad hardware performance for the same cost right now, Apple's advantage in terms of number of apps would still put the iPad as the sensible choice to buy.
Very astute!
I watched some Xoom demo and they showed, briefly, some primitive video editing software -- my initial thought was Oh-Oh Motorola is tipping their hand that they will supply some "House Apps" to compete with Apple's "House Apps".
Of course, the iMovie preso at the iPad 2 announce put those fears to bed.
But, on reflection, say MMI, Sammy or any of the "Android tab-mfgrs-to-be", wants to differentiate themself by supplying a "House App".
How would they be able to do that and limit it to their hardware only -- seems to me that it it would soon be running on any Android tablet -- maybe even the Playbook..
OTH, Apple iOS and apps run only on Apple hardware -- if you want the sizzle, you gotta' buy the steak!
I don't know how to quantify this except as a conundrum for developing "House Apps":
1) If you are Apple -- the more you do, the aheader you get!
2) If you are an Android tab mfgr. -- the more you do, the behinder you get!
.
Only if Apple rests on its laurels. The thing that concerns me however, if the iPad does indeed go on to dominate the tablety market, is when the cries of "monopoly" will start. Any company that has 80%+ share of a market will surely attract the attention of government stooges. The assumption is that no company can be so good as to dominate a market legally and legitimately. "All corporations are evil" is the anti-business battle cry.
Overwhelming market share is not enough to declare a company a monopoly deserving of regulation. You also have to show that a) there are significant barriers to entry and b) the company has committed actions in restraint of trade. I don't think anyone in his right mind would claim that a significant barrier to entry exists in the tablet market and Apple's lawyers, so far, have shown that they are smart enough to keep Apple from committing the sort of criminal antitrust acts that MS was convicted of.
The only thing stopping me adding more AAPL at the moment is their huge pile of cash.
Don't get me wrong, I think it's a positive thing to hold a decent amount, and I wait with interest to see what they do with it, but it's the sort of thing that no matter what Apple spend it on, the market will probably over-react and send their stock down, and that could represent an opportunity to buy at something of a discount.
They used $3.9 bn of their "pile of cash", according to Tim Cook, "to secure component supplies and capacity".
This is exactly what you want Apple to do with their cash, re-invest it in a business that is doubling in growth with large margins
http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/20110124/tk-3/
Apple once had a tremendous lead in personal computers, now they have 3-4% of a market dominated by Microsoft Windows (92+%). Only a couple of years ago Apple seemed to have a totally insurmountable lead in smartphones, today the IPhone is #3 in the US and #4 in the world, and Android, which nobody took seriously only a year ago, is number one in the world (both in sales and total units in use). Apple is the clear leader in a market which had essentially zero competitors until about a week ago (when the Xoom came out) and it is clear that Motorola pushed the release date earlier then they wanted (Flash won't be working until this Friday and the SD card and 4G even later then that) in order to get in before the IPAd 2). But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category, and better quad core units are on the way) and almost certainly lower prices, the IPad 2 is going to take a big hit. Remember that Android is free and open and works very well, and even one of those criteria would make Android tablets a serious threat to Apple.
Look Jobs wouldn't continue to harp about how fragmented and silly Android was if he wasn't worried about it. He isn't worried about Windows mobile 7 or RIM, because they suck so bad, but if Android phone and tablet sales continue to increase at their present rate (about 900% in just one year) in a few years Apple will be about as relevant in mobile computing as they are in presently in PCs. I would love to see Apple remain a serious force in mobile computing, but IPods are going to disappear soon (it just doesn't make sense to have a separate device that doesn't do anything that any smartphone can do), Macs are a tiny niche market, Iphones are losing market share rapidly to Android, and there are finally going to be competitors to IPad. If Apple doesn't open their OS to other companies then IOS will whither away, that's just a fact.
The difference is that Apple has learned from their failure. You can look at the iPod for an example. They are willing to price their products as low as the competition is pricing theirs.
I think apple was prepared to lower the cost of iPad2 if Samsung or Motorola had come out with products that were competitive with the 499. I was ready for a 350 price during Mr Jobs presentation. And because Apple has the supply chain that they did not have with the original Macs, it's ready to challenge anyone with enough cajones to step to the plate.
It's foolish to think that consumers see the iPad and the knockoffs as equal in the marketplace, meaning they'll simply buy a Xoom since the iPad is temporarily sold out. The only people buying Xooms are those who are purposefully, intentionally NOT buying an iPad.
The iPod "natural monopoly" analogy is interesting and plausible, but the tablet market is still too nascent to really make that call just yet. Apple has an extraordinary lead here, and it may well be insurmountable. I personally don't see any competitor matching what Apple has to offer. Cheaper tablets will sell, but not very well. People are willing to pay for premium devices such as Apples, as evidenced by Mac sales outpacing the overall industry for the past 19 quarters.
I would agree except that Android has more than a foothold in the phone space at this point, largely thanks to the period of AT&T exclusivity. There are a lot of Android phone users out there that will stick with their platform, which may give Android tablets a foothold by extension. My larger point is, if the market for tablets reaches, say 500M, can Apple ever make close to that many? Perhaps, if the growth is incremental enough, but man, that's a lot of iPads.