Good point on RIM -- you're probably right that I was too generous with them. My guess is that they'd go 50-30-20 Apple-MS-Android (unless MS tanks, in which case I'd agree with you)
How do you figure Android going down to 20%?
For that to happen, Samsung, HTC, Motorola, LG and Sony, not to mention up and coming Chinese vendors, will have to either fade into oblivion or abandon Android. I don't see either happening, unless MS can bribe all of them in the same way it bribed Nokia.
Actually the numbers may not be off the mark. Remember they are looking at this in terms of operating systems and Windows and Android are open for anyone to license while iOs is not. .
First of all I had no argument, I simply asked what his point was.
He did not directly respond to the other persons comment. He was taking "lines" literally instead of figuratively, but so apparently did you.
And sorry, the PC market has nothing to do with the mobile market.
I didn?t mean to come off pretentious. If the original comment was about actual lines then I don?t see how it would make sense to later refer to figurative line when the correlation was about literal lines, hence my comment.
For that to happen, Samsung, HTC, Motorola, LG and Sony, not to mention up and coming Chinese vendors, will have to either fade into oblivion or abandon Android. I don't see either happening, unless MS can bribe all of them in the same way it bribed Nokia.
I don?t think we should call the China Mobile OPhone derivative Android. That would be grouped under under other unless it gains a large enough marketshare to be put into it?s own, separate category.
And figuring Android will drop in marketshare does not mean they will drop in the number of models it is being shipped on, just as their rapid decline in growth does not mean it is being shipped on less units.
Exactly. Apple is just gonna keep "doing their thing," which means making the best devices they can possibly make. The rest of the market can do whatever the hell they want.
Definitely, Apple should just focus on "doing its thing" and revenue will continue to roll in. Market share without revenue doesn't mean a thing. As long as Apple continues to add value to the iPhone its cost will remain reasonably high and sales might not reach 25%, but Apple will continue to make the most money in the smartphone sector. App growth is likely to continue which will make quite a bundle for Apple. Apple shouldn't concern itself about the rest of the smartphone market. If Apple releases a lower cost smartphone in China, Apple will continue to do very well.
I thought Oracle still had some sort of patent claims over Android. Isn't that even being taken into consideration? It's rather amazing that analysts think that Android's growth will continue unimpeded by anything. They don't even give WebOS any credence.
This is a massive change in Symbian's fortunes from IDC's last report where they had Symbian at 20% in 2015. That impressed nokia so much they ditched the platform.
As Asymco pointed out today they have taken the Symbian share now, copied it, and pasted it into Nokia/ Window's share in 2015. This despite the fact that WP7 has very few apps, and little or no developer interest. They have to be bought. To assume that the entire Nokia smartphone market which is in decline ( a decline not shown in this report) will instantly move over to WP7 is to assume that
1) There is no decline in Nokia's share despite the significant falls up to now. The very reason they moved to WP7.
2) That customers are loyal to Nokia's brand and will stay loyal, and this will drive WP7's growth. This is contradicted by 1). and the very fact that Nokia abandoned Symbian. Nokia's brand cant make up for second rate software.
3) That WP7 will drive growth. It hasnt done much already. Even the 5% is suspect - I think they are guessing that it will be 5% at the end of the year.
4) That blackberry - which is in massive sequential decline in share - will stop declining and will stagnate, along with iOS, which has grown enormously in the last 5 years. They apparently cant read the simple graphs which show Android eating into RIM in the US while iOS stayed static, on one carrier.. Androids future growth is therefore at the expense of iOS.
Clearly this is nonsense - WP7 is going nowhere, it was a nice effort but too late. Apple and iOS on the other hand have perfectly obvious vectors of growth.
1) China.
2) Get on all carriers across the world.
3) All carriers in the US.
4) A cheaper model.
5) A reverse Halo effect from the iPad.
6) Unknown Unknowns - whatever Apple does next.
Android is the default option for everybody else. I see iOS at 30-40%.
Another thing is that Nokia make cheaper products compared to the competition, have you seen the system requirements for Windows Phone 7?
WP7 needs (nothing is optional) a 1GHz CPU, 256MB of RAM at minimum, 8GB of built in memory at minimum, a DX9 capable GPU, a capacitive multi-touch screen, a five megapixel camera, GPS, Light sensor, accelerometer, compass, six hardware buttons and, for some strange reason, an FM Radio tuner..
^ This!
How can Nokia follow its past practice of cranking-out a plethora of models, when any of them with WP7 will -have- to look just like a clone of any other WP7 phone currently on the market?
The only way they can differentiate is by either bringing-out a minimum-spec WP7 phone at a great price, or going up-scale in features and hope their engineering reputation can attract people willing to pay more for a quality product.
What a pointless article. The mobile platform is evolving quickly with many surprises to come. There are many unknown variables such as (1) Amazon entering the Android market with full ecosystem, (2) Apple releasing low-end iPhone models, (3) possible merger/exit among "mature" mobile platforms (e.g., Blackberry).
IDC are making the mistake of thinking that Apple are going to stand still with developing the iPhone but one thing is certain and that is the iPhone of 2015 won't be the iPhone we know today. I can't imagine what it will be like and that is the point nobody has the imagination and insight of Jonny Ive and the rest of the Apple design team. Until the iPhone nobody could imagine what a smart phone would look like, after it was released they couldn't imagine anything other than an iPhone clone. Google with the Eric Schmidt connection shamelessly ripped off iOS. Exactly the same for the iPad. However as we all know market share doesn't necessarily equate to revenue. Android phones have sold because of their subsidised ecosystem. Apple ware is a premium product and their customers have historically been prepared to pay for a superior hardware/OS experience making Apple the manufacturer with the highest capital value. Over the next three years Apple will do something amazing that will shift the paradigm and leave the copycats trailing again, because in this particular market only Apple seems to be able to truly innovate the rest play catch up.
I seem to remember pundits, possibly I.D.C. saying that Microsoft was going to overtake Apple with the iPod-killing Zune and we all know how accurate that prediction was.
A new forecast of the global smartphone platform market from research firm IDC has predicted that Microsoft's Windows Phone platform will see a resurgence in the next four years, overtaking Apple's iOS platform which powers the iPhone.
IDC on Tuesday revealed its prediction that the worldwide smartphone market will grow 49.2 percent in 2011, with more than 450 million smartphones shipped. That would be a major increase from the 303.4 million units shipped in 2010.
IDC sees Apple's iOS taking 15.7 percent of global smartphone operating system market shipments in 2011. That would place Apple's platform which powers the iPhone in third place, behind market leader Android, with 39.5 percent, and Symbian, with 20.9 percent.
But despite the tremendous growth of the iPhone since it was introduced in 2007, IDC sees Apple's platform share actually dipping in global share by 2015 to 15.3 percent. Perhaps most surprising is the firm's prediction that Windows Phone 7 and Windows Mobile will grow to 20.9 percent of the market by 2015.snip
Perhaps IDC is a reputable firm and thier analysts have break downs of the more details that supports this style of announcements. Sounds like MS hired you out, and your doing your do diligence to favor them. There are no bench marks, just numbers. The sad thing is people will read this and label it authentic and repeat this over and over. This is FUD over and over.
But the media is king and they can say any thing they want. Freedom of the press. Right? I and many like me also have the right to call this as pure folly.
Those numbers aren't really that illogical. Third party operating systems like Android and WP7 require manufacturer support to be successful. The more phone manufacturers they can get to commit to the OS, the better. They live and die by manufacturer support. Microsoft made a big score with Nokia, and it's not that unrealistic that WP7 could take Symbians place in the market. Most people weren't buying Nokia phones for the OS, they were buying it for the hardware and/or price. If Nokia owners wanted an iPhone or Android device, they've probably already jumped ship. The reasons for buying a Nokia phone won't change, but Nokia phones will come with WP7, so WP7 market share should rise as a result.
This guess is perfectly logical, but that doesn't mean it's right. There are other potential factors, like Apple expanding its lineup beyond one phone and a resurgence of WebOS under HP, but it is a reasonable guess.
I don't know why you guys want WP7 to fail so badly anyway. A successful WP7 platform divides manufacturers between Android and WP7 limiting the market potential of both operating systems, ensuring a competitive OS market and good app support for all operating systems, including iOS. When presented with the option of Android at 65% or Android at 45% and WP7 at 20%, I'd take the latter without question. Although market share is an over used metric in the first place since not everyone is playing the same game (Apple and RIM sell phones, Microsoft sells an OS and Google sells ads and distributes a free OS).
It so annoys me when information is sensationalised so as to distort the interpretation of data. This article is rubbish, the title somehow suggests this huge resurgence of Windows and the demise of IOS.
What the data actually says is that Apple's IOS market share is unlikely to grow, that Android (due to its being readily available to any old tom-dick-and-harry and carrier neutrality) will grow, and that Nokia (who already have the largest global distribution network of cheap phones) will shift its OS (about which no one cared as its for low cost phones) from Symbian (20.9%) to WIndows (20.9%).
Why do these guys print this crap? There is not news here, its just sensationalised headlines to increase the click count, and its pissing me off. To interpret the numbers just might be a bit more useful to readers, rather than to stir things up.
Comments
http://www.engadget.com/2010/01/26/i...droid-to-take/
It's amazing to me to see how many of the comments here seem to agree that Symbian will dominate with its superiority.
Good point on RIM -- you're probably right that I was too generous with them. My guess is that they'd go 50-30-20 Apple-MS-Android (unless MS tanks, in which case I'd agree with you)
How do you figure Android going down to 20%?
For that to happen, Samsung, HTC, Motorola, LG and Sony, not to mention up and coming Chinese vendors, will have to either fade into oblivion or abandon Android. I don't see either happening, unless MS can bribe all of them in the same way it bribed Nokia.
Actually the numbers may not be off the mark. Remember they are looking at this in terms of operating systems and Windows and Android are open for anyone to license while iOs is not. .
Windows OS is not open.
Wow, what a pretentious reply.
First of all I had no argument, I simply asked what his point was.
He did not directly respond to the other persons comment. He was taking "lines" literally instead of figuratively, but so apparently did you.
And sorry, the PC market has nothing to do with the mobile market.
I didn?t mean to come off pretentious. If the original comment was about actual lines then I don?t see how it would make sense to later refer to figurative line when the correlation was about literal lines, hence my comment.
Windows OS is not open.
Windows is not open. That's kind of funny. Should be called Shutters OS.
How do you figure Android going down to 20%?
For that to happen, Samsung, HTC, Motorola, LG and Sony, not to mention up and coming Chinese vendors, will have to either fade into oblivion or abandon Android. I don't see either happening, unless MS can bribe all of them in the same way it bribed Nokia.
I don?t think we should call the China Mobile OPhone derivative Android. That would be grouped under under other unless it gains a large enough marketshare to be put into it?s own, separate category.
And figuring Android will drop in marketshare does not mean they will drop in the number of models it is being shipped on, just as their rapid decline in growth does not mean it is being shipped on less units.
Windows is not open. That's kind of funny. Should be called Shutters OS.
Ha Ha ... I like that.
Exactly. Apple is just gonna keep "doing their thing," which means making the best devices they can possibly make. The rest of the market can do whatever the hell they want.
I thought Oracle still had some sort of patent claims over Android. Isn't that even being taken into consideration? It's rather amazing that analysts think that Android's growth will continue unimpeded by anything. They don't even give WebOS any credence.
As Asymco pointed out today they have taken the Symbian share now, copied it, and pasted it into Nokia/ Window's share in 2015. This despite the fact that WP7 has very few apps, and little or no developer interest. They have to be bought. To assume that the entire Nokia smartphone market which is in decline ( a decline not shown in this report) will instantly move over to WP7 is to assume that
1) There is no decline in Nokia's share despite the significant falls up to now. The very reason they moved to WP7.
2) That customers are loyal to Nokia's brand and will stay loyal, and this will drive WP7's growth. This is contradicted by 1). and the very fact that Nokia abandoned Symbian. Nokia's brand cant make up for second rate software.
3) That WP7 will drive growth. It hasnt done much already. Even the 5% is suspect - I think they are guessing that it will be 5% at the end of the year.
4) That blackberry - which is in massive sequential decline in share - will stop declining and will stagnate, along with iOS, which has grown enormously in the last 5 years. They apparently cant read the simple graphs which show Android eating into RIM in the US while iOS stayed static, on one carrier.. Androids future growth is therefore at the expense of iOS.
Clearly this is nonsense - WP7 is going nowhere, it was a nice effort but too late. Apple and iOS on the other hand have perfectly obvious vectors of growth.
1) China.
2) Get on all carriers across the world.
3) All carriers in the US.
4) A cheaper model.
5) A reverse Halo effect from the iPad.
6) Unknown Unknowns - whatever Apple does next.
Android is the default option for everybody else. I see iOS at 30-40%.
Another thing is that Nokia make cheaper products compared to the competition, have you seen the system requirements for Windows Phone 7?
WP7 needs (nothing is optional) a 1GHz CPU, 256MB of RAM at minimum, 8GB of built in memory at minimum, a DX9 capable GPU, a capacitive multi-touch screen, a five megapixel camera, GPS, Light sensor, accelerometer, compass, six hardware buttons and, for some strange reason, an FM Radio tuner..
^ This!
How can Nokia follow its past practice of cranking-out a plethora of models, when any of them with WP7 will -have- to look just like a clone of any other WP7 phone currently on the market?
The only way they can differentiate is by either bringing-out a minimum-spec WP7 phone at a great price, or going up-scale in features and hope their engineering reputation can attract people willing to pay more for a quality product.
I seem to remember pundits, possibly I.D.C. saying that Microsoft was going to overtake Apple with the iPod-killing Zune and we all know how accurate that prediction was.
? really ??? I think it's time for me to get a job as an analyst...
RGOSA predicts, in 2017 Microsoft will be the leading producer of Hamburgers overtaking McDonalds.
A new forecast of the global smartphone platform market from research firm IDC has predicted that Microsoft's Windows Phone platform will see a resurgence in the next four years, overtaking Apple's iOS platform which powers the iPhone.
IDC on Tuesday revealed its prediction that the worldwide smartphone market will grow 49.2 percent in 2011, with more than 450 million smartphones shipped. That would be a major increase from the 303.4 million units shipped in 2010.
IDC sees Apple's iOS taking 15.7 percent of global smartphone operating system market shipments in 2011. That would place Apple's platform which powers the iPhone in third place, behind market leader Android, with 39.5 percent, and Symbian, with 20.9 percent.
But despite the tremendous growth of the iPhone since it was introduced in 2007, IDC sees Apple's platform share actually dipping in global share by 2015 to 15.3 percent. Perhaps most surprising is the firm's prediction that Windows Phone 7 and Windows Mobile will grow to 20.9 percent of the market by 2015.snip
Perhaps IDC is a reputable firm and thier analysts have break downs of the more details that supports this style of announcements. Sounds like MS hired you out, and your doing your do diligence to favor them. There are no bench marks, just numbers. The sad thing is people will read this and label it authentic and repeat this over and over. This is FUD over and over.
But the media is king and they can say any thing they want. Freedom of the press. Right? I and many like me also have the right to call this as pure folly.
This guess is perfectly logical, but that doesn't mean it's right. There are other potential factors, like Apple expanding its lineup beyond one phone and a resurgence of WebOS under HP, but it is a reasonable guess.
I don't know why you guys want WP7 to fail so badly anyway. A successful WP7 platform divides manufacturers between Android and WP7 limiting the market potential of both operating systems, ensuring a competitive OS market and good app support for all operating systems, including iOS. When presented with the option of Android at 65% or Android at 45% and WP7 at 20%, I'd take the latter without question. Although market share is an over used metric in the first place since not everyone is playing the same game (Apple and RIM sell phones, Microsoft sells an OS and Google sells ads and distributes a free OS).
(Disprove it, IDC).
What the data actually says is that Apple's IOS market share is unlikely to grow, that Android (due to its being readily available to any old tom-dick-and-harry and carrier neutrality) will grow, and that Nokia (who already have the largest global distribution network of cheap phones) will shift its OS (about which no one cared as its for low cost phones) from Symbian (20.9%) to WIndows (20.9%).
Why do these guys print this crap? There is not news here, its just sensationalised headlines to increase the click count, and its pissing me off. To interpret the numbers just might be a bit more useful to readers, rather than to stir things up.