PC sales start slow in 2011 while market is 'usurped' by Apple's iPad

Posted:
in iPad edited January 2014
Following a blockbuster start to sales for Apple's iPad 2, sources in the Far East PC supply chain have reportedly indicated that PC sales have seen "weak demand" to start 2011.



PC sales continue to grow, but at a slower pace than expected, according to Deutsche Bank analyst Chris Whitmore. In a note to investors on Tuesday, he cut his PC unit growth, excluding tablet sales, for 2011 to a 4 percent year over year increase, compared to his previous prediction of 9 percent.



While PC sales saw a significant reduction in estimates, Whitmore boosted his 2011 tablet sales forecast to 45 million, up from 40 million. And he sees the lion's share of those tablets -- 35 million -- being sold by Apple.



"We remain skeptical whether the likes of (HP), Dell, Motorola, Samsung and RIMM etc can close the competitive gap on iPad 2," he wrote. "Specifically, iPad challengers must either undercut on price (negative margin implications) and/or offer a superior user experience.



"In aggregate, we believe iPad will remain dominant with 70% market share. Our tablet unit estimate remains below Consensus due to our concerns that non-iPad tablets will underwhelm."



Tablet sales have apparently had the greatest impact on the consumer notebook market, which Whitmore said is being "usurped" by Apple's iPad. His checks overseas indicate that iPad "cannibalization" of traditional PCs, or the percentage of buyers using the device as a notebook replacement, is north of 30 percent.



"Apple remains the primary beneficiary of this technology transition which is increasingly coming at the expense of PC vendors (Acer, HPQ, etc.)," he wrote.



Whitmore seems the same trend away from PCs and toward tablets and smartphones continuing in 2012, when he expects a total of 70 million tablets to be sold, up from his previous estimate of 60 million. And in calendar year 2012, he sees PC sales growing 7 percent year over year, a decrease from his prior forecast of 8 percent.



Deutsche Bank has also increased its price target for AAPL stock to $450, and accordingly cut its price target for Dell to $18 and HP to $40.







Soon after the iPad launched in 2010, surveys immediately began to find that users saw the touchscreen tablet as a potential replacement for their notebook PC. Accordingly, there were signs throughout the year that the iPad was having a significant impact on PC sales.



That effect has carried over into 2011, as rival PC makers look to replicate the success Apple has had with the iPad. Netbook maker Acer was caught so off-guard by the iPad that the company recently parted ways with its CEO and announced its intentions to overhaul operations.
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Comments

  • boeyc15boeyc15 Posts: 950member
    Just my 2 cents- a very large percentage of people buy PCs just for email, web, pics and the occasionally letter... Apple nailed it with the iPad (well almost, printing is not that easy and the iPad still needs a pc or Mac... So far, lets see what June brings). I keep debating if I really want to upgrade my old T-40 or just use it as the iPad/iPhone host. That said, what do you think about iOS in a macbookair form factor? Hmmmm?



    Oh and first...
  • gatorguygatorguy Posts: 15,078member
    Don'cha just love forecasts? The only thing they show is someone's somewhat educated guess about what might happen. What I'm waiting to see are real-world sales figures, so we can see what the "crushing demand" and "blockbuster start" for the iPad2 has actually produced. As Steve Jobs said, if a product is selling that well, wouldn't you want to tell everyone?
  • addicted44addicted44 Posts: 813member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post


    Don'cha just love forecasts? The only thing they show is someone's somewhat educated guess about what might happen. What I'm waiting to see are real-world sales figures, so we can see what the "crushing demand" and "blockbuster start" for the iPad2 has actually produced. As Steve Jobs said, if a product is selling that well, wouldn't you want to tell everyone?



    I think it would be pretty bad form to boast about your sales when you are still making people wait 2-3 weeks to get the iPad they have paid for.



    Once Apple gets their demand-supply a little in sync, they will boast about this (or more likely wait till WWDC).
  • wingswings Posts: 261member
    They forecast a reduction in the expected sales of "PC"s but from everything I've seen the expected sales of Macs continue to climb. So I assume when they say "PC" they mean "PC", not Macs.
  • gatorguygatorguy Posts: 15,078member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by addicted44 View Post


    I think it would be pretty bad form to boast about your sales when you are still making people wait 2-3 weeks to get the iPad they have paid for.



    Once Apple gets their demand-supply a little in sync, they will boast about this (or more likely wait till WWDC).



    Good point and you could be right. The problem I have is all the glowing reports of "crushing demand" doesn't answer the question whether it's due to a comparatively small number of iPad2's actually produced so far, or Apple caught by surprise and already sold out of the 8-10 million that they could have anticipated by now according to some analysts. The demand would be highest at launch. As the weeks go by, more competitors enter the fray, increasing the possibility (don't misread that as probability) that some Ipad sales go to other devices instead. There's some appealing products hitting the shelves now and over the next month or so. The Asus Ee Pad Transformer is particularly noteworthy.
  • olliewalliewhiskersolliewalliewhiskers Posts: 434member
    PC sales start slow in 2011 while market is 'usurped' by Apple's iPad

    should read

    PC sales start slow in 2011 while market is 'usurped' by Apple
  • denmarudenmaru Posts: 208member
    2 spelling errors:



    *) It should be "RIM", not "RIMM".

    *) It's "deutsche Bank", not "deutcshe Bank".



    You're welcome.
  • al_bundyal_bundy Posts: 1,525member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by boeyc15 View Post


    Just my 2 cents- a very large percentage of people buy PCs just for email, web, pics and the occasionally letter... Apple nailed it with the iPad (well almost, printing is not that easy and the iPad still needs a pc or Mac... So far, lets see what June brings). I keep debating if I really want to upgrade my old T-40 or just use it as the iPad/iPhone host. That said, what do you think about iOS in a macbookair form factor? Hmmmm?



    Oh and first...



    it's a lot cheaper to print your pictures at target or some other store than buy a printer, ink, paper and whatever else. i haven't had a printer for years.



    the computer is there to hold your media and sit turned off 90% of the time. and for people who play games to play stuff like Civ 5 or Mass Effect that isn't on the ipad
  • swissmac2swissmac2 Posts: 216member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Wings View Post


    They forecast a reduction in the expected sales of "PC"s but from everything I've seen the expected sales of Macs continue to climb. So I assume when they say "PC" they mean "PC", not Macs.



    Usually in these statistics Macs are considered to be Personal Computers too, so if Macs are seeing growing sales numbers, the figures for Windows PCs must be worse than the average published for the sector.



    Because Macs are such a small share of the total market (sadly) even a large change in Mac sales figures has a tiny impact on the overall market. So, say Macs are 6% of market and grow market share 50% to 9%, that still ignores the other 91% of the market. In fact, this 3% increase in Mac market share only looks impressive when the average for market growth is predicted to be 4%. That's when the few extra Mac sales (in numerical terms) turn into 75% of the growth in the market as a whole.
  • omicronturtleomicronturtle Posts: 13member
    PC sales will pick up again when people need new PC's to activate their iDevice.
  • nvidia2008nvidia2008 Posts: 9,262member
    Given the iPad 2 is so impossible to get, I don't think these PC makers need to be *that* concerned.
  • constable odoconstable odo Posts: 1,041member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by OmicronTurtle View Post


    PC sales will pick up again when people need new PC's to activate their iDevice.



    Why won't they be able to use their old PC? They'll just need a newer version of iTunes on their Windows XP computers to activate their iPad 2s. How about them merely buying a Mac along with their iPad 2 instead of some PoC Windows PC?
  • omicronturtleomicronturtle Posts: 13member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post


    Why won't they be able to use their old PC? They'll just need a newer version of iTunes on their Windows XP computers to activate their iPad 2s. How about them merely buying a Mac along with their iPad 2 instead of some PoC Windows PC?



    It was just a bit or sarcasm on my part and a dig at the iPad 2, a "magical" device from 2011 that needs an external computer before you can use it
  • luisdiasluisdias Posts: 277member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by OmicronTurtle View Post


    It was just a bit or sarcasm on my part and a dig at the iPad 2, a "magical" device from 2011 that needs an external computer before you can use it



    Yeah I agree with that. I'll buy an iPad when it gets to become more independent. It will never be "totally" independent, since the interactivity will become more and more interesting, not less, but at least a bit more of independence.



    And a better file system, while we are at it.
  • vspvsp Posts: 32member
    In the tablet market, we are witnessing the effects of the iPod syndrome. When Apple came out with the iPod the competition tried their best effort in feature-rich hardwares and lower prices but consumers did not take the bait and the competition were decimated. Now with the iPad, the competition are trying the same strategies but falls short in matching the iPad in price. Many of them will be bleeding in red and will have give up in despair.
  • madhatter61madhatter61 Posts: 116member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post


    Given the iPad 2 is so impossible to get, I don't think these PC makers need to be *that* concerned.



    As for getting an iPad2, I walked into Best Buy on a Wednesday, and got one right off the truck as they were unloading them. Of course there weren't any by the end of the day.



    My four year old Mac Mini works just fine as an interface for my iPad2. Oh, I updated the iPad2 via iTunes a week or so ago as I picked up some fun new apps. Since then my ipad2 works quite independent of my Mac Mini ...



    I have built several PC towers over the years, because I could. I have quit doing that, as I took the monitor and keyboard I had on my Windows 7 machine for the Mac mini ... that was a year ago... and the pc is still there, might use it as a server someday for storage. Oh, did you know the Mac Mini is a perfect substitute for an old PC that is so full of virus, and malware, that I consider it junk. Yes, I do know how to clean it up ... buy why bother ... I don't have to deal with that nuisance on my Mac Mini.
  • srangersranger Posts: 469member
    Based on what I have seen, people who buy an iPad as their first Apple device usually purchase a Macbook, Macbook Pro, MacBook Air or iMac shortly after the iPad.....



    I believe that the iPad is cannibalizing windows based PC sales, but I think it is actually increasing overall Mac sales.....



    I know I will NEVER buy a PC based computer for personal use....



    I was lucky enough for my Boss to let me get a 13" MPB for my company computer after we found out that the Dell he bought me in January COULD NOT support more than 4GB of RAM because of a bug in the EFI boot system.... Dell's responce......Too Bad...



    I have to run VMFusion so that I can run and demo some PC based software that we sell, but it is nice to see that corporate America is finally waking up to the fact that Apples are actually more practical than PC in business and far less expensive to maintain. ( I wasted two weeks of my time trying to get the Dell to work. )
  • luisdiasluisdias Posts: 277member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by vsp View Post


    In the tablet market, we are witnessing the effects of the iPod syndrome. When Apple came out with the iPod the competition tried their best effort in feature-rich hardwares and lower prices but consumers did not take the bait and the competition were decimated. Now with the iPad, the competition are trying the same strategies but falls short in matching the iPad in price. Many of them will be bleeding in red and will have give up in despair.



    There's an interesting contender, the eepad transformer by acer.
  • bmoviebmovie Posts: 88member
    It must have been a gamble at Apple to pitch a new format with such a tiny touch screen, priced lower than any Macbook and based on applications built for the iPhone! Imagine if Steve's response to Netbooks bombed!!! In this Economy, "new", "different", "cute" and "cheaper than..." still sells.



    I, and a lot of desktop users who have been sold on larger and cheaper monitors will probably not get on the iPad bandwagon because of the lack of full applications and the relatively tiny screen but with Adobe showing Photoshop for the iPad and cable companies now putting TV on iPads (vs. Honeycomb devices), I could see buying an iPad to supplement a desktop machine. What I really want is a high-end iPad with a bigger screen that will take voice commands and a digitizer pen (Wacom and OWC modbook). At that point, the term "desktop publishing" will be obsolete and we will call it "curled up in bed in my underwear publishing". A week of "all nighters" getting out an assignment would involve a week of "Take Out'?all billable, and only a quarter of my trips to the bathroom eligible for downtime.
  • rabbit_coachrabbit_coach Posts: 1,114member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by boeyc15 View Post


    Just my 2 cents- a very large percentage of people buy PCs just for email, web, pics and the occasionally letter... Apple nailed it with the iPad (well almost, printing is not that easy and the iPad still needs a pc or Mac... So far, lets see what June brings). I keep debating if I really want to upgrade my old T-40 or just use it as the iPad/iPhone host. That said, what do you think about iOS in a macbookair form factor? Hmmmm?



    Oh and first...



    As soon as you want to permanently attach a keyboard to a iPad like touchscreen, you end up with a horribly clumsy and ugly device, which is neither this nor that. So, not going to happen anytime. Sorry.
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