Apple predicted to ship 1.5M Sandy Bridge MacBook Airs with Lion per quarter
An anticipated refresh to the MacBook Air lineup, bringing Intel's latest generation Sandy Bridge processors, as well as the launch of Lion could boost Apple's thin-and-light notebook to build orders of 1.5 million per quarter, one Wall Street analyst believes.
If sales of the ultraportable were to go as high as 1.5 million, as Chris Whitmore with Deutsche Bank believes they could, the MacBook Air would represent about 50 percent of Apple's total notebook business. Checks with supply chain sources reportedly indicated that the new notebook will go on sale in July.
Last week, AppleInsider exclusively reported that Apple has placed orders for a total of 380,000 Sandy Bridge-based MacBook Air models this month. Roughly 55 percent, or 209,000, of those are expected to be the 11.6-inch models, while the remainder will be the larger 13.3-inch models.
A MacBook Air refresh, along with the impending release of Mac OS X 10.7 Lion, is expected to boost Mac sales even more, as Apple's computers have consistently outgrown the rest of the PC market for years now. Whitmore has forecast sales of 18 million Macs in calendar year 2011, but he said Monday that he now believes his estimate is conservative.
Whitmore also noted that he expects the operating margins for Lion to be slightly higher than with past upgrades, because Lion will be sold exclusively through the Mac App Store and will not carry any retail distribution costs. He sees Lion with an operating margin of around 90 percent, while previous software upgrades were around 85 percent.
With a low $29.99 selling price, significant enhancements and arrival alongside updated MacBook Airs, Lion is expected to have a strong upgrade cycle. New operating system releases are an important event for Apple, as historically they have provided a noteworthy boost in Mac sales.
Following the release of Tiger in April of 2005, Mac sales increased by 34.2 percent year-over-year in the following quarters. Leopard led to an even greater 45.6 percent year-over-year boost after it debuted in October 2007. And the launch of Snow Leopard in August 2009 brought about a 33.1 percent increase in Mac sales.
On average, a new Mac OS release has helped hardware sales achieve growth more than 30 percent greater than the year prior. But in addition to new hardware sales, Whitmore also sees more than 25 million existing Mac users, or about 50 percent of Apple's current installed base, upgrading to Lion in the next two to three quarters.
Those Lion upgrades will be important, because the new operating system is a "key enabler" of the new iCloud services that Apple will offer for free. Whitmore sees iCloud driving a "very high upgrade rate" among Apple customers for both Macs and iOS devices.
Deutsche Bank has maintained a "buy" rating for AAPL stock, with a price target of $450.
If sales of the ultraportable were to go as high as 1.5 million, as Chris Whitmore with Deutsche Bank believes they could, the MacBook Air would represent about 50 percent of Apple's total notebook business. Checks with supply chain sources reportedly indicated that the new notebook will go on sale in July.
Last week, AppleInsider exclusively reported that Apple has placed orders for a total of 380,000 Sandy Bridge-based MacBook Air models this month. Roughly 55 percent, or 209,000, of those are expected to be the 11.6-inch models, while the remainder will be the larger 13.3-inch models.
A MacBook Air refresh, along with the impending release of Mac OS X 10.7 Lion, is expected to boost Mac sales even more, as Apple's computers have consistently outgrown the rest of the PC market for years now. Whitmore has forecast sales of 18 million Macs in calendar year 2011, but he said Monday that he now believes his estimate is conservative.
Whitmore also noted that he expects the operating margins for Lion to be slightly higher than with past upgrades, because Lion will be sold exclusively through the Mac App Store and will not carry any retail distribution costs. He sees Lion with an operating margin of around 90 percent, while previous software upgrades were around 85 percent.
With a low $29.99 selling price, significant enhancements and arrival alongside updated MacBook Airs, Lion is expected to have a strong upgrade cycle. New operating system releases are an important event for Apple, as historically they have provided a noteworthy boost in Mac sales.
Following the release of Tiger in April of 2005, Mac sales increased by 34.2 percent year-over-year in the following quarters. Leopard led to an even greater 45.6 percent year-over-year boost after it debuted in October 2007. And the launch of Snow Leopard in August 2009 brought about a 33.1 percent increase in Mac sales.
On average, a new Mac OS release has helped hardware sales achieve growth more than 30 percent greater than the year prior. But in addition to new hardware sales, Whitmore also sees more than 25 million existing Mac users, or about 50 percent of Apple's current installed base, upgrading to Lion in the next two to three quarters.
Those Lion upgrades will be important, because the new operating system is a "key enabler" of the new iCloud services that Apple will offer for free. Whitmore sees iCloud driving a "very high upgrade rate" among Apple customers for both Macs and iOS devices.
Deutsche Bank has maintained a "buy" rating for AAPL stock, with a price target of $450.
Comments
I would say the 11” Air (with the extra RAM upgrade, budget permitting) would be the best machine for most computer users on the planet! Many of them would want a big screen and external keyboard added while at home, but they’d have great portability when they wanted it, plus solid-state speed, and a machine with a much longer usable lifetime than your average disposable PC, for around $1000.
I’d really never recommend a white MacBook anymore. Even if someone needs to use their computer as their only DVD player, that’s a cheap add-on to the Air. (And it’s an add-on my 3-year-old Air has never, ever needed—not even for re-installing the OS and software, which can be done wirelessly.) Screen size? Add a cheap external display, maybe a Dell, and you’ve got something much bigger than a white MacBook.
I?m trying to talk myself into waiting until it?s bundled with a new iLife suite (Jan of next year?) but it?s difficult!.
With future apps not needing to be bundled for a DVD release and being pushed through the Mac App Store I wouldn't be surprised to see a change in the distribution method with only apps with special event worthy changes being demoed before an app store release, like they have with iOS App Store apps.
I would say the 11? Air (with the extra RAM upgrade, budget permitting) would be the best machine for most computer users on the planet! Many of them would want a big screen and external keyboard added while at home, but they?d have great portability when they wanted it, plus solid-state speed, and a machine with a much longer usable lifetime than your average disposable PC, for around $1000.
I think they can be pretty great for college students but I would like to see the battery life doubled and storage capacity quadrupled before I can seriously consider that machine.
I?d really never recommend a white MacBook anymore. Even if someone needs to use their computer as their only DVD player, that?s a cheap add-on to the Air. (And it?s an add-on my 3-year-old Air has never, ever needed?not even for re-installing the OS and software, which can be done wirelessly.) Screen size? Add a cheap external display, maybe a Dell, and you?ve got something much bigger than a white MacBook.
I don't think I would recommend the white MB to anyone and for pretty much everyone I know not in a tech-related field I'd either recommend the iPad + iMac or MBA, depending on needs. IOW, unless you are needing performance and storage capacity of a MBP, which isn't what most people need, I also can't see myself recommending the MBP either.
PS: I''ve mentioned this before. My local Apple Store is selling MacBooks very prominently. They take up an entire table when you walk in the door. Does Apple do that when they plan to kill off a product shortly? It seems to me they take up less space and are placed out of the way. This makes me think the white MB is doing fairly well.
Of course they shoul add a Thunderbolt plug. It is about time that we started seeing some type of Pico projectors also, for a real nice presentation.
It is about time to start seeing some Thunderbolt products!
A MacBook Air combined with a Thunderbolt hub containing eSATA, USB3, FireWire 800, and DisplayPort would make the MBA the ultimate portable.
I’m trying to talk myself into waiting until it’s bundled with a new iLife suite (Jan of next year?) but it’s difficult!
I would say the 11” Air (with the extra RAM upgrade, budget permitting) would be the best machine for most computer users on the planet! Many of them would want a big screen and external keyboard added while at home, but they’d have great portability when they wanted it, plus solid-state speed, and a machine with a much longer usable lifetime than your average disposable PC, for around $1000.
I’d really never recommend a white MacBook anymore. Even if someone needs to use their computer as their only DVD player, that’s a cheap add-on to the Air. (And it’s an add-on my 3-year-old Air has never, ever needed—not even for re-installing the OS and software, which can be done wirelessly.) Screen size? Add a cheap external display, maybe a Dell, and you’ve got something much bigger than a white MacBook.
Right on, Nagromme. I would add the younger generation don't seem to even covet a large desktop-like screen, keyboard and mouse. Mainly due to good eyesight. My 26 year old daughter declined when I said I would buy her an Apple monitor. She didn't want the cables and didn't want to have to connect it every time when she got home. Also she didn't want a separate iMac to maintain, either. I on the other hand have pretty much always had both a desktop and a laptop.
Right on, Nagromme. I would add the younger generation don't seem to even covet a large desktop-like screen, keyboard and mouse. Mainly due to good eyesight. My 26 year old daughter declined when I said I would buy her an Apple monitor. She didn't want the cables and didn't want to have to connect it every time when she got home. Also she didn't want a separate iMac to maintain, either. I on the other hand have pretty much always had both a desktop and a laptop.
Speaking of eye sight, yes thats why I like the ipad layout/text size for my old near sighted eyes. Macbook/laptop text can get pretty tiny. And I do miss the old 4:3 displays for vertical real estate
One more thing... obligatory plug for LIGHTED KEY BOARD. Doubt that it will have it though.
It is about time to start seeing some Thunderbolt products!
A MacBook Air combined with a Thunderbolt hub containing eSATA, USB3, FireWire 800, and DisplayPort would make the MBA the ultimate portable.
Yea. I can't wait for one of these hubs to come out. Allows one to completely overcome the port limitations of the MBA.
Apple should reorganize it's entire laptop line. Dump the white plastic macbook, get rid of it completely. And then Apple should merge the Macbook pro line with the Macbook Air line. Steve Jobs has already stated that Macbook Airs are the future of laptops. Ditch the optical drives in the Macbook Pros and make them thinner, more like the Macbook Airs. Offer 5-6 models, from the smallest Macbook Air size and up to largest Macbook Pro size and give them all the same name, their screen size will be sufficient enough to differentiate between them. I think that's going to happen sooner or later.
That made good sense. Must be time to spark one.
Apple should reorganize it's entire laptop line. Dump the white plastic macbook, get rid of it completely. And then Apple should merge the Macbook pro line with the Macbook Air line. Steve Jobs has already stated that Macbook Airs are the future of laptops. Ditch the optical drives in the Macbook Pros and make them thinner, more like the Macbook Airs. Offer 5-6 models, from the smallest Macbook Air size and up to largest Macbook Pro size and give them all the same name, their screen size will be sufficient enough to differentiate between them. I think that's going to happen sooner or later.
Common knowledge. Steve already said (at the launch of the 2nd-gen Airs) that the Air is the future of the Macbook Pros.
I just don't see a significant correlation between OS release and unit growth in that graphic.
In fact, I think the unit growth has been pretty stable since the iPad halo effect (ca. 2005) and is slowly saturating recently.
There were just two notable exceptions:
early 2006: The Intel transition was in full progress. People were uncertain and waiting for new models.
2009: financial meltdown
Plus the graph is hard to read because its inherently cyclical. A bad quarter echoes forward, leading to better numbers the next year. (And vice versa.)
I know in my own case Apples current maxed out systems are right on the edge of being acceptable. Denser flash memory isn't the answer either as reliability goes down.
With future apps not needing to be bundled for a DVD release and being pushed through the Mac App Store I wouldn't be surprised to see a change in the distribution method with only apps with special event worthy changes being demoed before an app store release, like they have with iOS App Store apps.
I think they can be pretty great for college students but I would like to see the battery life doubled and storage capacity quadrupled before I can seriously consider that machine.
I don't think I would recommend the white MB to anyone and for pretty much everyone I know not in a tech-related field I'd either recommend the iPad + iMac or MBA, depending on needs. IOW, unless you are needing performance and storage capacity of a MBP, which isn't what most people need, I also can't see myself recommending the MBP either.
PS: I''ve mentioned this before. My local Apple Store is selling MacBooks very prominently. They take up an entire table when you walk in the door. Does Apple do that when they plan to kill off a product shortly? It seems to me they take up less space and are placed out of the way. This makes me think the white MB is doing fairly well.
Looks like the 11" MacBook Air is starting to displace the 13" white MacBook as the entry-level Mac.
It isn't yet clear how a high-end Sandy Bridge Core i7 processor in a 13" MBA will perform relative to the January release of the 2.7 Ghz Core i7 in the latest 13" MacBook Pro, but it seems like it will be more than adequate for most users. This could be the new retail sweet spot.Whatever comes, my bet is that the new MacBook Air will debut in July, not June, to coincide with Lion.
Wouldn't it be amazing if Apple surprised everyone by adding a 15" MacBook Air to the line-up? I think it would cause a frenzy among buyers and maybe even queues at Apple stores - and that, for $2,000+ product, would hugely impact Apple's bottom line.
Any new Air release will only be a placeholder for upgraded MacBook Pros - unless 512 Gb SSD hard drives are available and WITHOUT BREAKING THE BANK.
Oh and one more thing I'd love to see...a thinner AC adapter to go with the MBA! My MBA goes around with me everywhere in a thin sleeve, but I hardly ever bring along the bulky adapter. So as it turns out I've used up about 90 cycles on my battery in only three months. At this rate I'll have to replace the battery within 6 months.
For many users the lack of internal storage is what makes the current AIR a no go. Let's face it the machine is great and likely will be much better with Sandy Bridge, but that means nothing if you come up short with respect to internal storage.
I know in my own case Apples current maxed out systems are right on the edge of being acceptable. Denser flash memory isn't the answer either as reliability goes down.
The cloud may help this - especially if more (desktop) features are added in future updates to Lion. But for example, don't keep much music on the harddrive, download it when you want it and delete it again. It may be hard on ISP data, but where I come from there is no cap and I'm often at work (university) with free wifi, and we also have it downtown.
I'll upgrade my current MBA 11" if the new one has at least 256GB SSD and a remote sensor. I didn't get why Apple left out the remote in the first place, because I used to use it all the time with iTunes and for presentations at work.
Oh and one more thing I'd love to see...a thinner AC adapter to go with the MBA! My MBA goes around with me everywhere in a thin sleeve, but I hardly ever bring along the bulky adapter. So as it turns out I've used up about 90 cycles on my battery in only three months. At this rate I'll have to replace the battery within 6 months.
I thought they got 1000. At 90/3 months it would be 33 months. Is Apple's 1000 cycle battery claim false?
Please more battery life on the 11.6" model. Such a slick little system, but it needs to last a little longer.
Gotta agree here. Flew out to WWDC last week, but the 11" battery was not able to last the flight.
I wonder why you don't think storage is important?
I do, which is why I have removed my ODD and have over 1TB of storage in my notebook, but if take a measure of the average user you'll find most of them aren't using that much.
At this rate I'll have to replace the battery within 6 months.
At that rate you have 3 full years before your battery will hold 80% of its original charge.