IDC bumps 2011 tablet forecast to 53M as Apple?s iPad 2 dominates

Posted:
in iPad edited January 2014
In spite of a seasonal drop in total tablet shipments in the first quarter of 2011, IDC raised its estimates for 2011 shipments to 53.5 million on the belief that Apple?s iPad 2 will continue to carry the tablet market.



Research group International Data Corp. issued its Worldwide Quarterly Media Tracker and eReader Tracker report for the March quarter last Friday, noting that overall shipments fell short of the predictions. The report emphasized the iPad?s success in the tablet space, noting that ?Apple?s iPad and the recently introduced iPad 2 continue to dominate the media tablet market, as other vendors have had a more difficult time finding market acceptance for their products.?



But, it wasn?t all good news for the Cupertino, Calif.-based company. According to IDC, the number of Apple shipments in the first quarter fell ?well below expectations.? The group attributed the miss to ?supply-chain hiccups? and the typical ?pre-release announcement of the iPad 2 several weeks before availability.?



Apple has had difficulty meeting the overwhelming demand for the iPad 2. The company ended last quarter with a substantial backlog, though lead times for the device on its online store recently improved to just 3-5 days, down from estimates of 1-2 weeks.



The company sold 4.69 million iPads in the March quarter, short of Wall Street consensus expectations of 6.2 million. Given IDC?s estimate of 7.2 million media tablets sold in the first quarter, Apple?s touchscreen tablet made up 65 percent of the market, down from 73 percent share last quarter.



Tablets running Google?s Android mobile operating system grew to a 34 percent market share on a sequential increase of 8.2 points. On the e-reader side, Barnes & Noble?s Nook Color dethroned Amazon?s Kindle to become the top-selling e-reader for the first time.



The report noted that the iPad?s primary competitors, Samsung and Motorola, have found ?moderate success? by focusing on preexisting distribution partnerships with mobile phone retailers. However, consumer reluctance to sign up for 3G and 4G data plans for tablets has stunted sales for the mobile handset makers.



"Like the PC market, Media Tablets had a bit of a challenging quarter in Q1, as concerns about general macroeconomic issues and the post-holiday letdown took a toll on demand," said Bob O'Donnell, IDC Vice President, Clients and Displays. "We expect the rest of the year to be much stronger, but we believe vendors who continue to focus on the telco channel for distribution will face serious challenges."



Despite the first-quarter hiccups in the tablet market, IDC remained confident in continued growth of the industry, raising its projection for the year from 50.4 million units to 53.5 million units. "Although media tablet sales were not as high as expected in 1Q11 due to slower consumer demand, overall economic conditions, and supply-chain constraints, we believe with the entrance of competitive new devices in second half of 2011, the market will sell close to 53 million units for the year and continue to grow long-term," said research analyst Jennifer Song.



Competition in the market is expected to heat up even further over the next 12 months as a variety of new tablets join the fray. HP just released the webOS-based TouchPad, while Dell is collaborating with Microsoft on Windows tablets. Meanwhile, Apple is expected to deliver a new iPad, with recent reports suggesting that it will have a higher-resolution display.
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Comments

  • apple ][apple ][ Posts: 8,234member
    I am not surprised. The iPad 2 is still hard to get in places. A friend of mine bought an iPad 2 a few days ago at one of the biggest Apple stores around and they didn't even have the color he wanted so he just settled for what they had in stock.
  • cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post


    I am not surprised. The iPad 2 is still hard to get in places. A friend of mine bought an iPad 2 a few days ago at one of the biggest Apple stores around and they didn't even have the color he wanted so he just settled for what they had in stock.



    That's not really due to supply, that's due to number of models and amount of stock held. The iPad comes in different sizes, colours and networks - which makes for a lot of models. The key indicator of supply issues is order time online, and that is 3-5 days now everywhere except Hong Kong.
  • myapplelovemyapplelove Posts: 1,515member
    I agree with the analyst for a change.
  • jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    But, it wasn’t all good news for the Cupertino, Calif.-based company. According to IDC, the number of Apple shipments in the first quarter fell “well below expectations.” The group attributed the miss to “supply-chain hiccups” and the typical “pre-release announcement of the iPad 2 several weeks before availability.”



    Apple has had difficulty meeting the overwhelming demand for the iPad 2. The company ended last quarter with a substantial backlog, though lead times for the device on its online store recently improved to just 3-5 days, down from estimates of 1-2 weeks.



    The company sold 4.69 million iPads in the March quarter, short of Wall Street consensus expectations of 6.2 million. Given IDC’s estimate of 7.2 million media tablets sold in the first quarter, Apple’s touchscreen tablet made up 65 percent of the market, down from 73 percent share last quarter.



    "Well below expectations" -- only because the analysts and IDC are idiots.



    Apple sold just over 7 million tablets in the Christmas quarter. Who in their right mind expected them to sell 6.2 million in the first calendar quarter?



    I suspect that the pre-release announcement probably had some effect and the slow start at getting iPad 2 out the door might have, as well. But, by far, the biggest factor is simple seasonality. Apple sells lots more of almost all products in the Christmas quarter than in the following quarter. And for a big gift item like the iPad, that difference is probably even greater.
  • cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


    Apple sold just over 7 million tablets in the Christmas quarter. Who in their right mind expected them to sell 6.2 million in the first calendar quarter?



    While I don't disagree with you, I can see where they were coming from, and it was essentially an assumption that the iPad was supply limited. If so, it was possible that sales would hold up post-christmas, and indeed it's still not completely impossible because of course the iPad-2 was profoundly supply limited early on.



    I think ultimately there's no doubt that the iPad will be strongly seasonal, in the way that the iPod is, but in the short term factors like supply and the overall growing market size could overwhelm that for the next few years.
  • tbelltbell Posts: 3,146member
    I think his point was that the 4th quarter is the strongest quarter for most products because of the gift giving holidays. So, if Apple sold 6.1 million iPads in the 4th quarter, how could somebody reasonably expect Apple to sell 7 million in the 1st quarter?



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post


    While I don't disagree with you, I can see where they were coming from, and it was essentially an assumption that the iPad was supply limited. If so, it was possible that sales would hold up post-christmas, and indeed it's still not completely impossible because of course the iPad-2 was profoundly supply limited early on.



    I think ultimately there's no doubt that the iPad will be strongly seasonal, in the way that the iPod is, but in the short term factors like supply and the overall growing market size could overwhelm that for the next few years.



  • cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TBell View Post


    I think his point was that the 4th quarter is the strongest quarter for most products because of the gift giving holidays. So, if Apple sold 6.1 million iPads in the 4th quarter, how could somebody reasonably expect Apple to sell 7 million in the 1st quarter?



    Because in any quarter Apple will sell min(supply,demand) units. Even if we assume that

    Demand 10Q4 > Demand 11Q1, if Supply 11Q1 > Supply 10Q4 then sales could still rise if Demand 11Q1 > Supply 11Q1.



    So the question becomes, could a person reasonably believe that demand outstripped supply in 10Q4? If so could they reasonably believe that it might continue to do so?
  • cy_starkmancy_starkman Posts: 488member
    Think, think..





    I think it is poor business to be making assumptions of a quarterly nature when there was less than/only four cycles of data and one to none of the quarter being assumed.



    It isn't a PMP, phone or PC. So none of their data sets are really even relevant.



    Seasonality... Fer f sake, the plant flowered once in observed history and thats some kind of statistical science.
  • fjose1929fjose1929 Posts: 68member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


    "Well below expectations" -- only because the analysts and IDC are idiots.



    Apple sold just over 7 million tablets in the Christmas quarter. Who in their right mind expected them to sell 6.2 million in the first calendar quarter?



    I suspect that the pre-release announcement probably had some effect and the slow start at getting iPad 2 out the door might have, as well. But, by far, the biggest factor is simple seasonality. Apple sells lots more of almost all products in the Christmas quarter than in the following quarter. And for a big gift item like the iPad, that difference is probably even greater.



    next week IDC. Will be stunned. Apple will report at least 11 million iPads sold. It is game over and they know it, this is the MP3 all over again.
  • pk22901pk22901 Posts: 85member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post


    Because in any quarter Apple will sell min(supply,demand) units. Even if we assume that

    Demand 10Q4 > Demand 11Q1, if Supply 11Q1 > Supply 10Q4 then sales could still rise if Demand 11Q1 > Supply 11Q1.



    So the question becomes, could a person reasonably believe that demand outstripped supply in 10Q4? If so could they reasonably believe that it might continue to do so?



    March 11 is a big date; The quake added more stress to the already stressed supply chain and may have lopped 1 or 2 million iPads off the delivery docks.



    -------------



    added after reading 2:44 pm irnchriz below:



    Totally agree w/ iPad 2 release slow down which also shipped on March 11th in the US.
  • irnchrizirnchriz Posts: 1,429member
    The iPad figures were low for the first quarter of 2011 due to the release of the iPad 2 which slowed device sales prior to it's release and only being available for a few days at the end of the quarter.



    Expect the figures on July 19th to be mind blowing.
  • solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by irnchriz View Post


    The iPad figures were low for the first quarter of 2011 due to the release of the iPad 2 which slowed device sales prior to it's release and only being available for a few days at the end of the quarter.



    Expect the figures on July 19th to be mind blowing.



    I wonder how many countries have the iPad 2 for sale directly from Apple or their "official" affiliates?



    I really feel the iPad arm of their business will eventually pull in more revenue than the iPhone arm within a couple years.
  • stelligentstelligent Posts: 2,680member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by irnchriz View Post


    The iPad figures were low for the first quarter of 2011 due to the release of the iPad 2 which slowed device sales prior to it's release and only being available for a few days at the end of the quarter.



    Expect the figures on July 19th to be mind blowing.



    So many people keep repeating the fallacy that the release of iPad 2 slowed the sales of iPad in Q1. The facts do not back that up. The official announcement of iPad 2 was March 2. It became available on March 11. By March, iPad sales was already soft compared to Christmas season. In fact, it was relatively soft all of Q1. You can argue anticipation of iPad 2 slowed sales of iPad (although this would be somewhat inconsistent with historic sales trends of iPhones and iPod Touch, which do tend to slow prior to the anticipated release of a new version but not always to a large degree), but you simply cannot say release of iPad 2 caused people to stop buying iPad.



    I think a strong companion reason (along with anticipation for the new version) is that Apple slowed manufacturing of iPad to create capacity to produce iPad 2.
  • cameronjcameronj Posts: 2,357member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by stelligent View Post


    So many people keep repeating the fallacy that the release of iPad 2 slowed the sales of iPad in Q1. The facts do not back that up. The official announcement of iPad 2 was March 2. It became available on March 11. By March, iPad sales was already soft compared to Christmas season. In fact, it was relatively soft all of Q1. You can argue anticipation of iPad 2 slowed sales of iPad (although this would inconsistent with historic sales trends of iPhones and iPod Touch), but you simply cannot say release of iPad 2 caused people to stop buying iPad.



    Uh... right.... new iPhones NEVER affect sales of the soon to be "old" model. Where have you been?
  • robin huberrobin huber Posts: 2,740member
    My wife went from "What did you buy that thing for? We don't need it" to being joined at the hip to it. Rather than run upstairs to her iMac, she keeps it on the couch in the family room where the TV is. She is constantly picking it up to look up to check the web for this and that. It's become the downstairs computer.



    Steve got it right. Not too big to be moved around (especially within a house), and not too small to make surfing and app-ing easy and un-cramped.
  • jd_in_sbjd_in_sb Posts: 1,269member
    Android tablets have a 34% market share? Perhaps in units shipped to stores but there is no way that is the percentage purchased by users. The real number is much smaller than that.
  • gatorguygatorguy Posts: 15,078member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jd_in_sb View Post


    Android tablets have a 34% market share? Perhaps in units shipped to stores but there is no way that is the percentage purchased by users. The real number is much smaller than that.



    They may be selling better than many of us might expect. The Samsung Tab 10.1, Asus Transformer and Toshiba Thrive have iPad-equivalent or better hardware, more connectivity options, good build quality, comparable battery life, less expensive add-ons, and yet still manage to meet and/or significantly undercut Apple's iPad2 prices. Dedicated Apple fans may say they can't match the iOS experience. Buyers of those "other" tablets probably don't know that (or don't care if they do) considering the price/feature differences. And if you throw the Nook Color in there, which IMO serves the most common needs for most surfers and readers at just $249, and Apple's higher price is hard to justify for some buyers.
  • stelligentstelligent Posts: 2,680member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cameronj View Post


    Uh... right.... new iPhones NEVER affect sales of the soon to be "old" model. Where have you been?



    Did you even read what I wrote? Literacy is a wonderful tool, even for tools.
  • cameronjcameronj Posts: 2,357member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by stelligent View Post


    Did you even read what I wrote? Literacy is a wonderful tool, even for tools.



    Yeah, you said "You can argue anticipation of iPad 2 slowed sales of iPad (although this would inconsistent with historic sales trends of iPhones and iPod Touch)" which is patently false. Iphone sales always fall off the table after the announcement of a new model, which directly contradicts your point.
  • solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cameronj View Post


    Yeah, you said "You can argue anticipation of iPad 2 slowed sales of iPad (although this would inconsistent with historic sales trends of iPhones and iPod Touch)" which is patently false. Iphone sales always fall off the table after the announcement of a new model, which directly contradicts your point.



    The sales might drop after the announcement (which we can't really know, only speculate), but we can see trends that show even after a year on the market the sales are still strong, even growing in sales despite being last year's tech and history of annual Summer releases.
    For Q2-2011 the iPhone sales were 18.6M.
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