Apple seen doubling or even tripling market share of iPhone & Mac

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited January 2014
Apple's growth has been called the "ultimate platform adoption story" in a new analysis, which sees the potential for Mac and iPhone market shares to double or even triple in the next few years.



Shaw Wu with Sterne Agee said in a note to investors on Wednesday that Apple's adoption story includes "plenty of headroom for growth" in the coming years, in both the consumer and enterprise markets. He noted that Apple's iPhone has only 4 percent to 5 percent share of all mobile phones, and the Mac owns a similar share of total PC sales.



"We believe AAPL has opportunity to double or potentially even triple its market share in these end markets over the next few years, particularly with Greater China and international as underpenetrated opportunities," Wu said.



"We think the beauty with the AAPL platform story is the company doesn't need to win over everyone to continue success. The company just needs to continue winning a fair share of its vast end markets as more users get the AAPL advantage of 'it just works better.'"



Wu believes that Apple could be the best-positioned technology company to take advantage of what he sees as three "secular mega trends" that will drive technology in the next decade. They are:

The mobile Internet

Cloud computing

The consumerization of technology

Apple in particular will be driven by what Wu sees as a strong product cycle in the second half of 2011, including the recently launched Mac OS X 10.7 Lion and the soon-to-debut iOS 5 for iPad and iPhone, set for release this fall. Apple has also refreshed most of its Mac lineup this year, including the new MacBook Airs released last month with high-speed Thunderbolt ports.







Wu also reiterated his belief that Apple's anticipated fifth-generation iPhone could be a "bigger upgrade than expected." Citing industry sources, he indicated again on Wednesday that a so-called "iPhone 5" is expected to include dual-core processors, better cameras, a bigger screen, and a thinner form factor.



Sterne Agee has maintained its "buy" rating for AAPL stock, and reaffirmed its $500 price target. Wu believes Apple is positioned to outperform in the current tough macroeconomic environment.
«13

Comments

  • welshdogwelshdog Posts: 1,278member
    "the company doesn't need to win over everyone to continue success."



    This is what I and many, many others have said over and over again. Apple doesn't need to monopolize the entire market (like MSFT did) in order to make huge money. Can't tell you how many times some PC troll has come around saying Apple is a loser because of their small market share. Or Apple needs to make cheaper computers to gain share. Blah dee frickin' blah. Wrong!



    MFST and DELL wish they were making Apple's money.
  • blastdoorblastdoor Posts: 1,220member
    The resurgence of the Mac should give pause to people who think that Android's early marketshare gains will inevitably be maintained. Windows is a much stronger competitor to the Mac than Android is to the iPhone in terms of the platform's entrenchment in the marketplace, third party software support, and overall coherence. And the Mac's resurgence started from a much, much lower marketshare than what the iPhone currently has.



    Even without legal issues, Android would have to be seen as highly vulnerable. Much of Android's marketshare appears to be "low quality" in the sense that many Android phones, particularly in developing countries, are not really being used as smartphones, but as feature phones. I strongly suspect that Android is near its marketshare peak.
  • applelover2applelover2 Posts: 293member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post


    The resurgence of the Mac should give pause to people who think that Android's early marketshare gains will inevitably be maintained. Windows is a much stronger competitor to the Mac than Android is to the iPhone in terms of the platform's entrenchment in the marketplace, third party software support, and overall coherence. And the Mac's resurgence started from a much, much lower marketshare than what the iPhone currently has.




    Macs are up to what, 3.something percent?
  • applezillaapplezilla Posts: 941member
    I don't see how this is possible. People are getting dumber (re: Tea Party).



    Smart choices are getting more and more rare.
  • gustavgustav Posts: 803member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleLover2 View Post


    Macs are up to what, 3.something percent?



    They are around 90% of the $1000+ PC category.
  • drdoppiodrdoppio Posts: 1,132member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by blastdoor View Post


    ...

    Even without legal issues, android would have to be seen as highly vulnerable. Much of android's marketshare appears to be "low quality" in the sense that many android phones, particularly in developing countries, are not really being used as smartphones, but as feature phones. I strongly suspect that android is near its marketshare peak.



    kftc.
  • matrix07matrix07 Posts: 1,993member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post


    Even without legal issues, Android would have to be seen as highly vulnerable. Much of Android's marketshare appears to be "low quality" in the sense that many Android phones, particularly in developing countries, are not really being used as smartphones, but as feature phones. I strongly suspect that Android is near its marketshare peak.



    It's far from nearing its peak. There's ten-fold of cheaper products sold for every premium one. Android is here to stay but it will be more and more low end.
  • island hermitisland hermit Posts: 6,217member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleLover2 View Post


    Macs are up to what, 3.something percent?



    Oh... but what a sweet 3 or 4 percent it is...



    I'd open that business any day...
  • mister snitchmister snitch Posts: 580member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleZilla View Post


    I don't see how this is possible. People are getting dumber (re: Tea Party)



    Not to mention the idiocy of those who need to scapegoat them at any opportunity, no matter how inappropriate or off-topic it is.
  • airnerdairnerd Posts: 222member
    Huh, who would have thought? Make a superior product that people will pay a premium for, recommend to others (word of mouth advertising), and build extreme brand loyalty and the profits will roll right in. On the flip side of that coin, you can mass produce garbage and get your product in front of a lot of people, and make very little money doing it while giving yourself a bad name.



    There will always be a market for cheaper goods, for people who just want to do something and don't care if most of the time it is frustrating or doesn't work. The real money is in the premium product where a clear differentiation can be made. AAPL has that figured out and is benefiting greatly from it.
  • macinthe408macinthe408 Posts: 1,050member
    But Google has more activations.



    That's like a paperboy delivering extra papers to random households then claiming his circulation is bigger than his competitor who delivers less papers but has more paying customers.
  • hunabkuhunabku Posts: 55member
    What matters for Apple, to keep its dominace, is to continue growing their market share enough so that developers continue to author for apple first. As we are seeing that market percentage doesn't need to be that big - cause those that buy apple are much more likely to buy apps.



    Of course as Microsoft has already demonstrated in the pc wars, the other key is to provide a great development environment/tools. And apple has got that in spades with iOS. They just got to stay ahead of saint no-evil google and any others that pop up.



    Let the haters take their eye off the ball again with such outdated and one dimensional thinking as the megahertz myth and largest market share wins fallacies. Seems like wall street may be finally getting it too.
  • island hermitisland hermit Posts: 6,217member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by macinthe408 View Post


    But Google has more activations.



    That's like a paperboy delivering extra papers to random households then claiming his circulation is bigger than his competitor who delivers less papers but has more paying customers.



    In my life I've seen sales people who drop into the office at 9 am, go out make their calls, come back at 4:30 pm, write their orders and leave by 5 pm. Weekends with their family, 2 and 3 week holidays. Next to no stress.



    I've also seen the guys who get in at 8 am and are out all day until 6 pm, writing orders until 7 pm or later, working on the weekends and taking very few holidays.



    ... but in the end... they both had the same bottom line. One went after and took only the cream and quoted all the others really high (sometimes getting the order regardless). The other took any orders that came his way... mostly small, low margin jobs.



    I always called it, "The Apple Way", when I saw a guy going after only the cream.
  • wovelwovel Posts: 953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Hunabku View Post


    What matters for Apple, to keep its dominace, is to continue growing their market share enough so that developers continue to author for apple first. As we are seeing that market percentage doesn't need to be that big - cause those that buy apple are much more likely to buy apps.



    Of course as Microsoft has already demonstrated in the pc wars, the other key is to provide a great development environment/tools. And apple has got that in spades with iOS. They just got to stay ahead of saint no-evil google and any others that pop up.



    Let the haters take their eye off the ball again with such outdated and one dimensional thinking as the megahertz myth and largest market share wins fallacies. Seems like wall street may be finally getting it too.





    You make a good point. Apple's Market share does not need to be the biggest , it just needs to be big enough. However, They remain the single largest development platform for mobile App developers. No one has ever shown any evidence that there is a single platform you can develop unmodified Android apps for that is anywhere near as large as the iPhone. (Without resorting to the Ugly least-common-denominator crap a lot of Android apps turn into).
  • fecklesstechguyfecklesstechguy Posts: 501member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by WelshDog View Post


    "the company doesn't need to win over everyone to continue success."



    This is what I and many, many others have said over and over again. Apple doesn't need to monopolize the entire market (like MSFT did) in order to make huge money. Can't tell you how many times some PC troll has come around saying Apple is a loser because of their small market share. Or Apple needs to make cheaper computers to gain share. Blah dee frickin' blah. Wrong!



    MFST and DELL wish they were making Apple's money.



    That Apple can now buy 12 Dells. Where's Mikey??!!!
  • blastdoorblastdoor Posts: 1,220member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleLover2 View Post


    Macs are up to what, 3.something percent?



    I think it's just at 5 worldwide, 11 in the US.



    Ten years ago it was under 2.
  • shaun, ukshaun, uk Posts: 1,050member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Gustav View Post


    They are around 90% of the $1000+ PC category.



    That would suggest they have very little room to grow unless they start targetting the sub $1000 PC category which I don't think they will do.



    I suspect Mac sales will continue to grow steadily as they expand further into international markets such as China and India.
  • tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 40,293member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Shaun, UK View Post


    That would suggest they have very little room to grow



    Not at all. It suggests that all that people have to do is buy more PCs over $1,000.



    It's not like there is a ceiling for computer sales and only a certain number can be over $1,000. That's nonsense.
  • sockrolidsockrolid Posts: 2,564member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    [...] Wu believes that Apple could be the best-positioned technology company to take advantage of what he sees as three "secular mega trends" that will drive technology in the next decade. They are:

    The mobile Internet

    Cloud computing

    The consumerization of technology

    [...]



    I would say that "Cloud computing" falls into the "consumerization of technology" trend. What we call "cloud computing" now used to be called "heterogeneous interoperability with internet connectivity" back in the '90s. Oracle, for example, sold turnkey data center solutions to many of the internet bubble companies at the turn of the century. Now there's iCloud for the masses.



    So, when did these trends all start? My estimates:



    The mobile internet - 21st century.



    Cloud computing - Late 20th century.



    The consumerization of technology - The dawn of man.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    [...] Sterne Agee has maintained its "buy" rating for AAPL stock, and reaffirmed its $500 price target. Wu believes Apple is positioned to outperform in the current tough macroeconomic environment.



    Could Apple become the first trillion-dollar company in terms of stock valuation? We'll have to wait for the economy to heat up again to see that happen.
  • lkrupplkrupp Posts: 4,003member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleLover2 View Post


    Macs are up to what, 3.something percent?



    And everyone cares what Apple is doing while no one cares what Microsoft is doing. Microsoft has been labeled by more than one pundit as a company in decline. Microsoft is irrelevant these days and not seen as any kind of innovator. They no longer control the direction of technology. So what has that big market share done for them lately? Apple sells more, takes in more revenue, is more profitable, and is worth more. That's what market share has gotten Microsoft.
Sign In or Register to comment.