... People who do real work, in any field (film production, music composition, web site and application development, graphics work, the list goes on) require the basic idea of a desktop (laptop, desktop, all in one) in order to get things done. Without a mouse and keyboard and multi-window user interface, people who use computers to get things done won't ever consider a tablet over a work machine. Sure, for Mom and Pop who just browse the internet and email with others, a tablet may fit the bill. ....
You know, comments like this were basically unfounded a year ago, but they're totally ridiculous now. I'd love to know specifically what kind of "real work" these power user types like to pretend they're doing with their mice and keyboards and "multiple-window user interfaces."
Maybe I'm just a naive young upstart who doesn't know what real work is -- well, no, actually I'm a 59-year-old novelist who built my own first computer in 1979, but let's not dwell on that -- yet I like to flatter myself that my work is "real" despite the fact that I've been doing it mainly with an iPad for more than a year now.
You know, comments like this were basically unfounded a year ago, but they're totally ridiculous now. I'd love to know specifically what kind of "real work" these power user types like to pretend they're doing with their mice and keyboards and "multiple-window user interfaces."
Maybe I'm just a naive young upstart who doesn't know what real work is -- well, no, actually I'm a 59-year-old novelist who built my own first computer in 1979, but let's not dwell on that -- yet I like to flatter myself that my work is "real" despite the fact that I've been doing it mainly with an iPad for more than a year now.
Let's be real here, folks. No matter how much Apple Kool-Aid you drink, PCs, in any form (remember that Macs are PCs too), aren't going anywhere for a long while. People who do real work, in any field (film production, music composition, web site and application development, graphics work, the list goes on) require the basic idea of a desktop (laptop, desktop, all in one) in order to get things done. Without a mouse and keyboard and multi-window user interface, people who use computers to get things done won't ever consider a tablet over a work machine. Sure, for Mom and Pop who just browse the internet and email with others, a tablet may fit the bill. But you can't discount hundreds of millions of machines being used for work other than the basics of computing; sure, maybe in twenty years things will be different, but the traditional PC won't be going anywhere anytime soon.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NeoTheta
You might want to observe the iPads that are popping up where real work is done. It's amazing how quickly they are displacing PC's. For example our hospital has PC's on carts that are wheeled from room to room. Some doctors discovered iPads. Increasingly the PC carts are sitting in the corner collecting dust. Then there is the restaurant that replaced menus and their whole PC based order system with iPads. They still have a server (the truck) but the order entry stations (PC's) are gone. Makes one wonder about the long term career prospects for waiters and waitresses -- guess someone still has to bring the food to the table...
The iPad is being used in ways that surprise and astonish, and its just getting started as a platform.
I am happy to hear people who don't "get it". It means there is run left in Apple stock. Never thought we'd be neck in neck with ExxonMobil so quickly.
This is really very interesting because this new tablet segment is still so very new. The iPad hasn't been out for more than 18 months! 18 months!!!
Yet, after just three months, we were seeing business software appearing. Tim Cook expressed his own surprise that the tablet was taking off so well in business because of how conservative business normally is. Jobs said that iPad sales were being driven by sales to business. I agree.
When I was on line to buy my iPad2, all the people around me were buying it for their businesses! I was amazed by that. I'm more amazed that GE has written a sophisticated app for this and said that, nope, no current plans for anything else. I'm seeing that often.
The Eu has standardized on the iPad for their legislators, and so has the Canadian Parliment.
Even the Pope is using it.
Follow the link and read the short article.
I found the following paragraph particularly interesting:
Quote:
GE chose to develop the iPad app because the tablet is used by more physicians than other tablets on the market, according to Mike Friguletto, vice president and general manager of GE Healthcare IT's Clinical Business Solutions. It's no surprise then to hear him say that the company has no current plans to put Centricity Advance-Mobile into other mobile devices.
Let's be real here, folks. No matter how much Apple Kool-Aid you drink, PCs, in any form (remember that Macs are PCs too), aren't going anywhere for a long while. People who do real work, in any field (film production, music composition, web site and application development, graphics work, the list goes on) require the basic idea of a desktop (laptop, desktop, all in one) in order to get things done. Without a mouse and keyboard and multi-window user interface, people who use computers to get things done won't ever consider a tablet over a work machine. Sure, for Mom and Pop who just browse the internet and email with others, a tablet may fit the bill. But you can't discount hundreds of millions of machines being used for work other than the basics of computing; sure, maybe in twenty years things will be different, but the traditional PC won't be going anywhere anytime soon.
I think you give a reasonable timeline... twenty years sounds about right.
... but I do see mobile devices outnumbering traditional pc's in about 7 years (or less) and I see traditional desktop pc's being replaced more and more by laptops and dumb terminals.
The traditional desktop pc is not in middle age... that's just plain stupid. It's in its death throes. We'll be down to 3 manufacturers within 7 years. Margins will still be the same... or worse. Necessity will make companies innovate... not competition... although, in a way, they go hand in hand.
By the time we get to that 20 year timeline I can almost guarantee that we can't even envision at this time what computing will be. I can also almost guarantee that if MS keeps up with this type of shit they will not be here in twenty years.
Let's be real here, folks. No matter how much Apple Kool-Aid you drink, PCs, in any form (remember that Macs are PCs too), aren't going anywhere for a long while. People who do real work, in any field (film production, music composition, web site and application development, graphics work, the list goes on) require the basic idea of a desktop (laptop, desktop, all in one) in order to get things done. Without a mouse and keyboard and multi-window user interface, people who use computers to get things done won't ever consider a tablet over a work machine. Sure, for Mom and Pop who just browse the internet and email with others, a tablet may fit the bill. But you can't discount hundreds of millions of machines being used for work other than the basics of computing; sure, maybe in twenty years things will be different, but the traditional PC won't be going anywhere anytime soon.
Emphasis mine, above.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzpolice
You know, comments like this were basically unfounded a year ago, but they're totally ridiculous now. I'd love to know specifically what kind of "real work" these power user types like to pretend they're doing with their mice and keyboards and "multiple-window user interfaces."
Maybe I'm just a naive young upstart who doesn't know what real work is -- well, no, actually I'm a 59-year-old novelist who built my own first computer in 1979, but let's not dwell on that -- yet I like to flatter myself that my work is "real" despite the fact that I've been doing it mainly with an iPad for more than a year now.
Whats so ironic is, isnt Apple's Mac OSX and its entire computer line up a "personal" computer ? Aka a "PC" too?
We don't hook up to the mainframe computer to run our operating system or system resources now do we? I'm old enough to have first hand experience with these things by the way.
Only the Chrome OS, currently, is a true "Non-PC" as it utilizes the "cloud" as its OS/system resources of which without it, its just a fancy paper weight or a "dumb terminal" as we liked to call it back in the day.
So Apple, please, stop calling it the end of the "PC era when you yourself is still using a "PC". Speaking of which, if transitioning from the Mac OSX to the iOS platform is considered the "post" PC era, you are all wrong yet again. Why? Because the OS and its core functionality still resides within the device, it is still "personal".
When the essential functionality of an OS resides at another place, THEN can you claim that that particular item is a "non-PC".
When people say its a PC vs Mac world, they dont know what they are talking about.
Give you an analogy:
It's like comparing HDTV vs LCD. HDTV is a general category. LCD is a specific type of HDTV. Plasmas are also a specific type of HDTV.
PC is considered a general category. Mac is a specific type of PC. Windows is also a specific type of PC.
Why are people calling it a PC vs Mac when it really should be Windows vs Mac?
Why does Apple do this? Pure marketing.
It still baffles my mind whenever I hear those comparison phrases.
It's hilarious that Apple tries to differentiate itself away from the general category when it itself resides in one.
Whats so ironic is, isnt Apple's Mac OSX and its entire computer line up a "personal" computer ? Aka a "PC" too?
We don't hook up to the mainframe computer to run our operating system or system resources now do we?
Only the Chrome OS, currently, is a true "Non-PC" as it utilizes the "cloud" as its OS/system resources of which without it, its just a fancy paper weight.
Whats so ironic is, isnt Apple's Mac OSX and its entire computer line up a "personal" computer ? Aka a "PC" too?
Yes it is, but iOS is 85% Mac OS X code. Apple has had the brains to move their OS to the new devices, whereas MS is in denial (or at least, fallen behind).
He thinks that a computer must have the power of a modern desktop computer - so the iPad must not be useful.
I think it needs to reach a certain minimum performance level to replace a modern desktop or laptop entirely - it can already replace certain uses entirely. Where our opinions differ is that you seem to think an iPad is not intended to go this route whereas I think it inevitably will. Here are examples of what that looks like:
When the iPad was launched, I did think the iPad would not be useful and other tablet manufacturers seem to be finding difficulty convincing buyers that their tablet will be of use. Apple's integrated experience and quality control has set the iPad apart from the others though and I regard the iPad even as it stands now as a highly useful device.
I don't think as it stands, it can replace a laptop or desktop entirely though as it has no connectivity to mass storage and is not currently a master device. iOS 5 will change the latter. It would need a filesystem manager for the former.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum
I have a setup that looks like that -- except instead of the display I have a new 27" iMac.
That's exactly it. If you put an iPad next to an iMac, the only difference is spec and over time, just like with laptops now, once you hit a certain performance level, it doesn't matter any more. If an iMac goes up to 16 cores, it won't make a difference to people just browsing the web, checking email and basic productivity like writing, movie cutting etc.
Let's be real here, folks. No matter how much Apple Kool-Aid you drink, PCs, in any form (remember that Macs are PCs too), aren't going anywhere for a long while. People who do real work, in any field (film production, music composition, web site and application development, graphics work, the list goes on) require the basic idea of a desktop (laptop, desktop, all in one) in order to get things done. Without a mouse and keyboard and multi-window user interface, people who use computers to get things done won't ever consider a tablet over a work machine. Sure, for Mom and Pop who just browse the internet and email with others, a tablet may fit the bill. But you can't discount hundreds of millions of machines being used for work other than the basics of computing; sure, maybe in twenty years things will be different, but the traditional PC won't be going anywhere anytime soon.
You are talking about todays tablets. Think ten years in the future. I can imagine film production on a tablet.
Besides, nobody said PCs are going away. They just said that they will be the trucks. They will only be used for tasks that are not everyday.
Tablets may become a bit more like laptops with wireless peripherals though. If things like AirPlay are any indicator I can see a glimpse of the future.
I think it needs to reach a certain minimum performance level to replace a modern desktop or laptop entirely - it can already replace certain uses entirely. Where our opinions differ is that you seem to think an iPad is not intended to go this route whereas I think it inevitably will. Here are examples of what that looks like:
When the iPad was launched, I did think the iPad would not be useful and other tablet manufacturers seem to be finding difficulty convincing buyers that their tablet will be of use. Apple's integrated experience and quality control has set the iPad apart from the others though and I regard the iPad even as it stands now as a highly useful device.
I don't think as it stands, it can replace a laptop or desktop entirely though as it has no connectivity to mass storage and is not currently a master device. iOS 5 will change the latter. It would need a filesystem manager for the former.
And you're continuing to measure it by YOUR standards and pretending that it's not useful because it doesn't meet your standards.
Whether the iPad will eventually be a full-fledged computer is irrelevant. (I don't know why you think I said it wouldn't - I never commented on the subject. I fully expect that some day, a tablet will offer more power than almost anyone can use - as in Star Trek). But it's irrelevant.
TODAY, the iPad is a very useful, very powerful took to do a lot of things. Your dismissal of it because it's not an i7 with 8 GB of RAM and some high end video card simply indicates that you're measuring it by the wrong standards.
I don't think as it stands, it can replace a laptop or desktop entirely though as it has no connectivity to mass storage and is not currently a master device. iOS 5 will change the latter. It would need a filesystem manager for the former.
Do you think it will ever have access to mass storage though? I think they intend the cloud to perform this role.
But on the other hand, Thunderbolt is very fast. Almost suspiciously fast. It makes you wonder whether Apple has bigger plans for it, such as linking an iPad to a Thunderbolt Display in the same way you currently do with a MBA, similar to as you suggest.
Whats so ironic is, isnt Apple's Mac OSX and its entire computer line up a "personal" computer ? Aka a "PC" too?
We don't hook up to the mainframe computer to run our operating system or system resources now do we? I'm old enough to have first hand experience with these things by the way.
Only the Chrome OS, currently, is a true "Non-PC" as it utilizes the "cloud" as its OS/system resources of which without it, its just a fancy paper weight.
So Apple, please, stop calling it the end of the "PC era when you yourself is still using a "PC". Speaking of which, if transitioning from the Mac OSX to the iOS platform is considered the "post" PC era, you are all wrong yet again. Why? Because the OS and its core functionality still resides within the device, it is still "personal".
When the essential functionality of an OS resides at another place, THEN can you claim that that particular item is a "non-PC".
When people say its a PC vs Mac world, they dont know what they are talking about.
Give you an analogy:
It's like comparing HDTV vs LCD. HDTV is a general category. LCD is a specific type of HDTV. Plasmas are also a specific type of HDTV.
PC is considered a general category. Mac is a specific type of PC. Windows is also a specific type of PC.
Why are people calling it a PC vs Mac when it really should be Windows vs Mac?
Why does Apple do this? Pure marketing.
It still baffles my mind whenever I hear those comparison phrases.
It's hilarious that Apple tries to differentiate itself away from the general category when it itself resides in one.
"PC" is just being used to pick out a certain class of devices. If you don't like "PC" use some other word to describe the class of devices that includes desktops and laptops and then stick "post-" in front of it. It's a name, not a description, so it doesn't matter if tablets are still "personal." And, yes, Apple has used it in two ways, to denote Windows-based PCs (in the PC vs. Mac campaign) and to denote desktop/laptop style computers. Language tends to be ambiguous. In both cases it's obvious what they're saying from context and both cases it reflects common usage, where PC is used to mean "not-Mac" and to mean the desktop/laptop style devices that have dominated for the past couple of decades.
The "PC" in "post-PC" is the modern desktop/laptop form factor and includes Macs. "Post-PC" means a world where those devices are relegated to niche status, like trucks, and devices like smartphones and tablets are the mainstream computing devices.
I think you give a reasonable timeline... twenty years sounds about right.
... but I do see mobile devices outnumbering traditional pc's in about 7 years (or less) and I see traditional desktop pc's being replaced more and more by laptops and dumb terminals.
The traditional desktop pc is not in middle age... that's just plain stupid. It's in its death throes. We'll be down to 3 manufacturers within 7 years. Margins will still be the same... or worse. Necessity will make companies innovate... not competition... although, in a way, they go hand in hand.
By the time we get to that 20 year timeline I can almost guarantee that we can't even envision at this time what computing will be. I can also almost guarantee that if MS keeps up with this type of shit they will not be here in twenty years.
I agree with everything you say... except we could quibble about the time frames.
There is certainly a large population of pcs out there.
But, increasingly, as these come up for replacement, they will be replaced by tablets (iPads if the competition doesn't get their shit together).
There is absolutely no reason that a person need be tethered to a desk -- with an iPad they can be productive anywhere, everywhere even while standing in some line.
Then, apps are coming that will exploit the iPad capabilities and advantages -- that will result in wholesale obsolescence of some "productivity jobs" as we know them!
I had one foot in the corporate world (IBM) and the other in personal [micro] computers (opened a Computer store in 1978). When VisiCalc, the first SpreadSheet, came available on the Apple ][, it turned industry ass over teakettle -- easily replacing many"productivity jobs" involving budgeting, pricing/forecasting, financial planning...
AIR, VisiCalc cost $79. Major corporations were buying multiple Apple ][ systems (printers, hard disks, networks, etc) costing $5,000-$10,000 each -- just so they could run that $79 copy of VisiCalc.
The "productivity jobs" replaced were accountants with desktop calculators and Data Processing (IT) departments with access to corporate mainframe computers.
One of the secrets of VisiCalc's success was that you could do all the calculations for a budget or forecast in minutes, then show it to your manager, VP, etc. Then he would say "What if we change this..." Type, type (no mouses then) Wham/Bam... "then the answer would be this!"
There was no way the accountant could do that -- and it took at least a month to get a Data Processing (IT) approval to change a program and about 18 months to get the change implemented.
If you were planning to introduce a new product whose success depended on "crunching the numbers" -- you were "SOL" -- especially if your competition had VisiCalc.
I have no idea of the number of "productivity jobs" that were changed or discontinued by VisiCalc and the spreadsheet apps that followed -- but I suspect it was in the hundreds of thousands or even millions.
The point: nobody saw it coming; everyone wanted/needed it; the hardware it required was incidental to the results -- they were buying capability.
The iPad provides capability and opportunity,
Mmmm.... CO [pronounced cee-oh] Capability, Opportunity...
... Not a bad acronym... Anyone looking foe an acronym
How about [iPad] CO... to replace that pickup truck that doesn't satisfy the wants/needs of most people?
Microsoft, on the other hand, has said that it views tablets as PCs. The company is betting that, over time, PCs, tablets and smartphoens will come together into a "unified ecosystem."
Comments
Apple has also given it a name, a name they can build around... a name, post-pc, they see as the future... a future they plan to define.
*stage smoke*
*pause*
Apple has also given it a name...
*stage smoke*
*queue "The Final Countdown"*
a name they can build around...
*stage smoke*
a name, post-pc, they see as the future...
*wait for the climax of "The Final Countdown" intro*
a future they plan to define!!
*pyrotechnics!!*
*stage smoke*
*pause*
Apple has also given it a name...
*stage smoke*
*queue "The Final Countdown"*
a name they can build around...
*stage smoke*
a name, post-pc, they see as the future...
*wait for the climax of "The Final Countdown" intro*
a future they plan to define!!
*pyrotechnics!!*
So, in other words, you've got nothing.
The term PC is used for a variety of different things.
Yes, the term PC is just "so PC!"
Hey, I am late to this thread, so I am starting from the end and reading/posting backwards...
I should come across as really smart
Like the guy who walks up and pops in the last piece of the jigsaw puzzle... (after withdrawing it from his pocket).
... People who do real work, in any field (film production, music composition, web site and application development, graphics work, the list goes on) require the basic idea of a desktop (laptop, desktop, all in one) in order to get things done. Without a mouse and keyboard and multi-window user interface, people who use computers to get things done won't ever consider a tablet over a work machine. Sure, for Mom and Pop who just browse the internet and email with others, a tablet may fit the bill. ....
You know, comments like this were basically unfounded a year ago, but they're totally ridiculous now. I'd love to know specifically what kind of "real work" these power user types like to pretend they're doing with their mice and keyboards and "multiple-window user interfaces."
Maybe I'm just a naive young upstart who doesn't know what real work is -- well, no, actually I'm a 59-year-old novelist who built my own first computer in 1979, but let's not dwell on that -- yet I like to flatter myself that my work is "real" despite the fact that I've been doing it mainly with an iPad for more than a year now.
So, in other words, you've got nothing.
Au contraire I have the perfect screenplay for your next dinner party entrance.
You know, comments like this were basically unfounded a year ago, but they're totally ridiculous now. I'd love to know specifically what kind of "real work" these power user types like to pretend they're doing with their mice and keyboards and "multiple-window user interfaces."
Maybe I'm just a naive young upstart who doesn't know what real work is -- well, no, actually I'm a 59-year-old novelist who built my own first computer in 1979, but let's not dwell on that -- yet I like to flatter myself that my work is "real" despite the fact that I've been doing it mainly with an iPad for more than a year now.
I love when reality steps in.
Let's be real here, folks. No matter how much Apple Kool-Aid you drink, PCs, in any form (remember that Macs are PCs too), aren't going anywhere for a long while. People who do real work, in any field (film production, music composition, web site and application development, graphics work, the list goes on) require the basic idea of a desktop (laptop, desktop, all in one) in order to get things done. Without a mouse and keyboard and multi-window user interface, people who use computers to get things done won't ever consider a tablet over a work machine. Sure, for Mom and Pop who just browse the internet and email with others, a tablet may fit the bill. But you can't discount hundreds of millions of machines being used for work other than the basics of computing; sure, maybe in twenty years things will be different, but the traditional PC won't be going anywhere anytime soon.
You might want to observe the iPads that are popping up where real work is done. It's amazing how quickly they are displacing PC's. For example our hospital has PC's on carts that are wheeled from room to room. Some doctors discovered iPads. Increasingly the PC carts are sitting in the corner collecting dust. Then there is the restaurant that replaced menus and their whole PC based order system with iPads. They still have a server (the truck) but the order entry stations (PC's) are gone. Makes one wonder about the long term career prospects for waiters and waitresses -- guess someone still has to bring the food to the table...
The iPad is being used in ways that surprise and astonish, and its just getting started as a platform.
I am happy to hear people who don't "get it". It means there is run left in Apple stock. Never thought we'd be neck in neck with ExxonMobil so quickly.
@melgross posted the following to another thread:
This is really very interesting because this new tablet segment is still so very new. The iPad hasn't been out for more than 18 months! 18 months!!!
Yet, after just three months, we were seeing business software appearing. Tim Cook expressed his own surprise that the tablet was taking off so well in business because of how conservative business normally is. Jobs said that iPad sales were being driven by sales to business. I agree.
When I was on line to buy my iPad2, all the people around me were buying it for their businesses! I was amazed by that. I'm more amazed that GE has written a sophisticated app for this and said that, nope, no current plans for anything else. I'm seeing that often.
http://www.informationweek.com/news/...less/231300594
The Eu has standardized on the iPad for their legislators, and so has the Canadian Parliment.
Even the Pope is using it.
Follow the link and read the short article.
I found the following paragraph particularly interesting:
GE chose to develop the iPad app because the tablet is used by more physicians than other tablets on the market, according to Mike Friguletto, vice president and general manager of GE Healthcare IT's Clinical Business Solutions. It's no surprise then to hear him say that the company has no current plans to put Centricity Advance-Mobile into other mobile devices.
...Times they are a-changing'
Au contraire I have the perfect screenplay for your next dinner party entrance.
Thank you for your consideration... I'm always happy to entertain.
Let's be real here, folks. No matter how much Apple Kool-Aid you drink, PCs, in any form (remember that Macs are PCs too), aren't going anywhere for a long while. People who do real work, in any field (film production, music composition, web site and application development, graphics work, the list goes on) require the basic idea of a desktop (laptop, desktop, all in one) in order to get things done. Without a mouse and keyboard and multi-window user interface, people who use computers to get things done won't ever consider a tablet over a work machine. Sure, for Mom and Pop who just browse the internet and email with others, a tablet may fit the bill. But you can't discount hundreds of millions of machines being used for work other than the basics of computing; sure, maybe in twenty years things will be different, but the traditional PC won't be going anywhere anytime soon.
I think you give a reasonable timeline... twenty years sounds about right.
... but I do see mobile devices outnumbering traditional pc's in about 7 years (or less) and I see traditional desktop pc's being replaced more and more by laptops and dumb terminals.
The traditional desktop pc is not in middle age... that's just plain stupid. It's in its death throes. We'll be down to 3 manufacturers within 7 years. Margins will still be the same... or worse. Necessity will make companies innovate... not competition... although, in a way, they go hand in hand.
By the time we get to that 20 year timeline I can almost guarantee that we can't even envision at this time what computing will be. I can also almost guarantee that if MS keeps up with this type of shit they will not be here in twenty years.
Let's be real here, folks. No matter how much Apple Kool-Aid you drink, PCs, in any form (remember that Macs are PCs too), aren't going anywhere for a long while. People who do real work, in any field (film production, music composition, web site and application development, graphics work, the list goes on) require the basic idea of a desktop (laptop, desktop, all in one) in order to get things done. Without a mouse and keyboard and multi-window user interface, people who use computers to get things done won't ever consider a tablet over a work machine. Sure, for Mom and Pop who just browse the internet and email with others, a tablet may fit the bill. But you can't discount hundreds of millions of machines being used for work other than the basics of computing; sure, maybe in twenty years things will be different, but the traditional PC won't be going anywhere anytime soon.
Emphasis mine, above.
You know, comments like this were basically unfounded a year ago, but they're totally ridiculous now. I'd love to know specifically what kind of "real work" these power user types like to pretend they're doing with their mice and keyboards and "multiple-window user interfaces."
Maybe I'm just a naive young upstart who doesn't know what real work is -- well, no, actually I'm a 59-year-old novelist who built my own first computer in 1979, but let's not dwell on that -- yet I like to flatter myself that my work is "real" despite the fact that I've been doing it mainly with an iPad for more than a year now.
Martin Scorsese Attends Free iMovie Demonstration At Apple Store
And, BTW, iMove runs on the iPad (and the iPhone). In addition, there are apps for storyboarding, set design, scripts...
We don't hook up to the mainframe computer to run our operating system or system resources now do we? I'm old enough to have first hand experience with these things by the way.
Only the Chrome OS, currently, is a true "Non-PC" as it utilizes the "cloud" as its OS/system resources of which without it, its just a fancy paper weight or a "dumb terminal" as we liked to call it back in the day.
So Apple, please, stop calling it the end of the "PC era when you yourself is still using a "PC". Speaking of which, if transitioning from the Mac OSX to the iOS platform is considered the "post" PC era, you are all wrong yet again. Why? Because the OS and its core functionality still resides within the device, it is still "personal".
When the essential functionality of an OS resides at another place, THEN can you claim that that particular item is a "non-PC".
When people say its a PC vs Mac world, they dont know what they are talking about.
Give you an analogy:
It's like comparing HDTV vs LCD. HDTV is a general category. LCD is a specific type of HDTV. Plasmas are also a specific type of HDTV.
PC is considered a general category. Mac is a specific type of PC. Windows is also a specific type of PC.
Why are people calling it a PC vs Mac when it really should be Windows vs Mac?
Why does Apple do this? Pure marketing.
It still baffles my mind whenever I hear those comparison phrases.
It's hilarious that Apple tries to differentiate itself away from the general category when it itself resides in one.
Whats so ironic is, isnt Apple's Mac OSX and its entire computer line up a "personal" computer ? Aka a "PC" too?
We don't hook up to the mainframe computer to run our operating system or system resources now do we?
Only the Chrome OS, currently, is a true "Non-PC" as it utilizes the "cloud" as its OS/system resources of which without it, its just a fancy paper weight.
Why is that irony?
Whats so ironic is, isnt Apple's Mac OSX and its entire computer line up a "personal" computer ? Aka a "PC" too?
Yes it is, but iOS is 85% Mac OS X code. Apple has had the brains to move their OS to the new devices, whereas MS is in denial (or at least, fallen behind).
He thinks that a computer must have the power of a modern desktop computer - so the iPad must not be useful.
I think it needs to reach a certain minimum performance level to replace a modern desktop or laptop entirely - it can already replace certain uses entirely. Where our opinions differ is that you seem to think an iPad is not intended to go this route whereas I think it inevitably will. Here are examples of what that looks like:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpYiCebcZsw
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8AJHQwuJpg
When the iPad was launched, I did think the iPad would not be useful and other tablet manufacturers seem to be finding difficulty convincing buyers that their tablet will be of use. Apple's integrated experience and quality control has set the iPad apart from the others though and I regard the iPad even as it stands now as a highly useful device.
I don't think as it stands, it can replace a laptop or desktop entirely though as it has no connectivity to mass storage and is not currently a master device. iOS 5 will change the latter. It would need a filesystem manager for the former.
I have a setup that looks like that -- except instead of the display I have a new 27" iMac.
That's exactly it. If you put an iPad next to an iMac, the only difference is spec and over time, just like with laptops now, once you hit a certain performance level, it doesn't matter any more. If an iMac goes up to 16 cores, it won't make a difference to people just browsing the web, checking email and basic productivity like writing, movie cutting etc.
Let's be real here, folks. No matter how much Apple Kool-Aid you drink, PCs, in any form (remember that Macs are PCs too), aren't going anywhere for a long while. People who do real work, in any field (film production, music composition, web site and application development, graphics work, the list goes on) require the basic idea of a desktop (laptop, desktop, all in one) in order to get things done. Without a mouse and keyboard and multi-window user interface, people who use computers to get things done won't ever consider a tablet over a work machine. Sure, for Mom and Pop who just browse the internet and email with others, a tablet may fit the bill. But you can't discount hundreds of millions of machines being used for work other than the basics of computing; sure, maybe in twenty years things will be different, but the traditional PC won't be going anywhere anytime soon.
You are talking about todays tablets. Think ten years in the future. I can imagine film production on a tablet.
Besides, nobody said PCs are going away. They just said that they will be the trucks. They will only be used for tasks that are not everyday.
Tablets may become a bit more like laptops with wireless peripherals though. If things like AirPlay are any indicator I can see a glimpse of the future.
I think it needs to reach a certain minimum performance level to replace a modern desktop or laptop entirely - it can already replace certain uses entirely. Where our opinions differ is that you seem to think an iPad is not intended to go this route whereas I think it inevitably will. Here are examples of what that looks like:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpYiCebcZsw
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8AJHQwuJpg
When the iPad was launched, I did think the iPad would not be useful and other tablet manufacturers seem to be finding difficulty convincing buyers that their tablet will be of use. Apple's integrated experience and quality control has set the iPad apart from the others though and I regard the iPad even as it stands now as a highly useful device.
I don't think as it stands, it can replace a laptop or desktop entirely though as it has no connectivity to mass storage and is not currently a master device. iOS 5 will change the latter. It would need a filesystem manager for the former.
And you're continuing to measure it by YOUR standards and pretending that it's not useful because it doesn't meet your standards.
Whether the iPad will eventually be a full-fledged computer is irrelevant. (I don't know why you think I said it wouldn't - I never commented on the subject. I fully expect that some day, a tablet will offer more power than almost anyone can use - as in Star Trek). But it's irrelevant.
TODAY, the iPad is a very useful, very powerful took to do a lot of things. Your dismissal of it because it's not an i7 with 8 GB of RAM and some high end video card simply indicates that you're measuring it by the wrong standards.
I don't think as it stands, it can replace a laptop or desktop entirely though as it has no connectivity to mass storage and is not currently a master device. iOS 5 will change the latter. It would need a filesystem manager for the former.
Do you think it will ever have access to mass storage though? I think they intend the cloud to perform this role.
But on the other hand, Thunderbolt is very fast. Almost suspiciously fast. It makes you wonder whether Apple has bigger plans for it, such as linking an iPad to a Thunderbolt Display in the same way you currently do with a MBA, similar to as you suggest.
Whats so ironic is, isnt Apple's Mac OSX and its entire computer line up a "personal" computer ? Aka a "PC" too?
We don't hook up to the mainframe computer to run our operating system or system resources now do we? I'm old enough to have first hand experience with these things by the way.
Only the Chrome OS, currently, is a true "Non-PC" as it utilizes the "cloud" as its OS/system resources of which without it, its just a fancy paper weight.
So Apple, please, stop calling it the end of the "PC era when you yourself is still using a "PC". Speaking of which, if transitioning from the Mac OSX to the iOS platform is considered the "post" PC era, you are all wrong yet again. Why? Because the OS and its core functionality still resides within the device, it is still "personal".
When the essential functionality of an OS resides at another place, THEN can you claim that that particular item is a "non-PC".
When people say its a PC vs Mac world, they dont know what they are talking about.
Give you an analogy:
It's like comparing HDTV vs LCD. HDTV is a general category. LCD is a specific type of HDTV. Plasmas are also a specific type of HDTV.
PC is considered a general category. Mac is a specific type of PC. Windows is also a specific type of PC.
Why are people calling it a PC vs Mac when it really should be Windows vs Mac?
Why does Apple do this? Pure marketing.
It still baffles my mind whenever I hear those comparison phrases.
It's hilarious that Apple tries to differentiate itself away from the general category when it itself resides in one.
"PC" is just being used to pick out a certain class of devices. If you don't like "PC" use some other word to describe the class of devices that includes desktops and laptops and then stick "post-" in front of it. It's a name, not a description, so it doesn't matter if tablets are still "personal." And, yes, Apple has used it in two ways, to denote Windows-based PCs (in the PC vs. Mac campaign) and to denote desktop/laptop style computers. Language tends to be ambiguous. In both cases it's obvious what they're saying from context and both cases it reflects common usage, where PC is used to mean "not-Mac" and to mean the desktop/laptop style devices that have dominated for the past couple of decades.
The "PC" in "post-PC" is the modern desktop/laptop form factor and includes Macs. "Post-PC" means a world where those devices are relegated to niche status, like trucks, and devices like smartphones and tablets are the mainstream computing devices.
I think you give a reasonable timeline... twenty years sounds about right.
... but I do see mobile devices outnumbering traditional pc's in about 7 years (or less) and I see traditional desktop pc's being replaced more and more by laptops and dumb terminals.
The traditional desktop pc is not in middle age... that's just plain stupid. It's in its death throes. We'll be down to 3 manufacturers within 7 years. Margins will still be the same... or worse. Necessity will make companies innovate... not competition... although, in a way, they go hand in hand.
By the time we get to that 20 year timeline I can almost guarantee that we can't even envision at this time what computing will be. I can also almost guarantee that if MS keeps up with this type of shit they will not be here in twenty years.
I agree with everything you say... except we could quibble about the time frames.
There is certainly a large population of pcs out there.
But, increasingly, as these come up for replacement, they will be replaced by tablets (iPads if the competition doesn't get their shit together).
There is absolutely no reason that a person need be tethered to a desk -- with an iPad they can be productive anywhere, everywhere even while standing in some line.
Then, apps are coming that will exploit the iPad capabilities and advantages -- that will result in wholesale obsolescence of some "productivity jobs" as we know them!
I had one foot in the corporate world (IBM) and the other in personal [micro] computers (opened a Computer store in 1978). When VisiCalc, the first SpreadSheet, came available on the Apple ][, it turned industry ass over teakettle -- easily replacing many"productivity jobs" involving budgeting, pricing/forecasting, financial planning...
AIR, VisiCalc cost $79. Major corporations were buying multiple Apple ][ systems (printers, hard disks, networks, etc) costing $5,000-$10,000 each -- just so they could run that $79 copy of VisiCalc.
The "productivity jobs" replaced were accountants with desktop calculators and Data Processing (IT) departments with access to corporate mainframe computers.
One of the secrets of VisiCalc's success was that you could do all the calculations for a budget or forecast in minutes, then show it to your manager, VP, etc. Then he would say "What if we change this..." Type, type (no mouses then) Wham/Bam... "then the answer would be this!"
There was no way the accountant could do that -- and it took at least a month to get a Data Processing (IT) approval to change a program and about 18 months to get the change implemented.
If you were planning to introduce a new product whose success depended on "crunching the numbers" -- you were "SOL" -- especially if your competition had VisiCalc.
I have no idea of the number of "productivity jobs" that were changed or discontinued by VisiCalc and the spreadsheet apps that followed -- but I suspect it was in the hundreds of thousands or even millions.
The point: nobody saw it coming; everyone wanted/needed it; the hardware it required was incidental to the results -- they were buying capability.
The iPad provides capability and opportunity,
Mmmm.... CO [pronounced cee-oh] Capability, Opportunity...
... Not a bad acronym... Anyone looking foe an acronym
How about [iPad] CO... to replace that pickup truck that doesn't satisfy the wants/needs of most people?
Maybe, we're going to se a co world!
Microsoft, on the other hand, has said that it views tablets as PCs. The company is betting that, over time, PCs, tablets and smartphoens will come together into a "unified ecosystem."
Hah. The Pink Panther strikes again...