Third-gen iPad's 'window of opportunity' expected to drive Apple market share gains
Apple's third-generation iPad is expected by one market watcher to soon arrive during an advantageous "window of opportunity," in which competitors have nothing significant to offer, that will further increase the company's lead in the mobile computing market.
Analyst Chris Whitmore with Deutsche Bank said in a note to investors on Monday that the line between tablets and notebook computers is rapidly blurring as devices like the iPad become more powerful. He noted that uses for the iPad have rapidly expanded to include textbooks, medical diagnostic tools, and pilot flight bags.
With a third-generation iPad expected to arrive in March, Whitmore sees Apple announcing a new model with a high-resolution display, a quad-core CPU, graphics performance four to five times faster than the iPad 2, and Siri voice control. Additional power in the so-called "iPad 3" will only expand the potential uses for the device and leave competitors further in the dust, the analyst believes.
"With other tablet vendors in disarray (shifting from Android to Win8), we expect the iPad 3 introduction to drive additional share gains in the mobile computer market," he said.
Estimates from Deutsche Bank, combined with data from IDC, suggest that Apple currently has a 25 percent share of the combined notebook and tablet market. The next closest competitor is HP, which had a 12 percent combined total in the fourth quarter of calendar 2011, followed by Lenovo and Acer, both with 10 percent.
Whitmore said none of the iPad competitors introduced in the last 12 months have come close to the iPad, as most of the products have been "me-too" offerings with little differentiation with one another. He believes the Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1 and Asus's Transformer Prime are "more relevant" products as iPad competitors than Amazon's Kindle Fire.
But as Android-based iPad competitors have fallen short, Whitmore believes many device makers are shifting away from Android and are now looking toward the launch of Windows 8, which will feature support for low-power ARM chips found in tablets. But with a three-year head start and about 170,000 applications already available for the iPad, he doesn't see Microsoft's Windows 8 catching up in tablets anytime soon.
"Win8 based hardware is unlikely to ramp in earnest until 2013," he wrote. "This leaves the window wide open for Apple to extend its lead in the market and drive substantial growth and profits going forward."
Deutsche Bank sees "phenomenal product momentum" from Apple going forward, particularly with the iPhone and iPad, driving healthy growth into 2013. The investment firm has reiterated its "buy" rating for AAPL stock with a price target of $600.
[ View article on AppleInsider ]
Comments
Yeah, right!
I can't really understand people who complained about Microsoft's monopoly for decades now pretending "Linux's tablet share is falling, replaced by Windows". Huh?!
Also... childish, but: first!
If you want a high end phone Apple have nothing to offer, and you end up with a Galaxy Nexus or something similar. What will the iPhone's market share be by the time iPhone 5 finally emerges?
"People will buy the iPad 3 when it is released".
Ok....
"shifting from Android to Win8"
Yeah, right!
I can't really understand people who complained about Microsoft's monopoly for decades now pretending "Linux's tablet share is falling, replaced by Windows". Huh?!
Also... childish, but: first!
Are there Linux Tablets? Never heard of them.
You might says apple beats them on quality/usability or whatever, but there's a lot going on that's quite significant.
Oh wait, another news article based on the opinion of an analyst....
Are there Linux Tablets? Never heard of them.
As Android is linux based, and runs a linux kernel, you might call all android tablet, linux tablets.
Still lumping in notebooks and tablets I see.
Prepare to be bashed. Everyone will tell you that it's just as good ( it isn't) and can run all the same programs (it can't).
Until it can run a full version of FileMaker, office (or numbers in landscape!), and a real photo editing program (Instagram doesn't count)- it isn't in the same discussion as a laptop.
Hell- even a netbook can run FileMaker and photoshop elements (which is better than anything the iPad has to offer).
I have an iPad- but I don't pretend it's something it's not. (before you start- yes, it eats into laptop market share- big time. Yes- it's a pc, but should be in its own category)
Flame on....
Nothing significant? 7" kindle eating up the bottom market share (no discussion if it's even the same market), and quad core 1920x1200 tablets showing up. ICS unifying smartphone and tablet android OS.
You might says apple beats them on quality/usability or whatever, but there's a lot going on that's quite significant.
Oh wait, another news article based on the opinion of an analyst....
That chart only shows ~62-63% of market share combined. That did stand out to me....
I agree the iPad will dominate the market and be streets ahead of the competition, that's obvious. What's less obvious is why Apple has been letting it's iPhone market share move away to Android so rapidly. Where is the innovation with the iPhone? Where are the killer specs? (Apple claims not to care about specs, but you can be sure a quad core GPU/GPU and high PPI screen will be all over the iPad 3 marketing materials)
If you want a high end phone Apple have nothing to offer, and you end up with a Galaxy Nexus or something similar. What will the iPhone's market share be by the time iPhone 5 finally emerges?
You must be joking, when you say the iP4S is not high end. How much higher must an end be. Particularly if you mention the screen resolution, which is still miles away from anything else in the field.
As Android is linux based, and runs a linux kernel, you might call all android tablet, linux tablets.
OK, one might look at it this way.
I agree the iPad will dominate the market and be streets ahead of the competition, that's obvious. What's less obvious is why Apple has been letting it's iPhone market share move away to Android so rapidly. Where is the innovation with the iPhone? Where are the killer specs? (Apple claims not to care about specs, but you can be sure a quad core GPU/GPU and high PPI screen will be all over the iPad 3 marketing materials)
If you want a high end phone Apple have nothing to offer, and you end up with a Galaxy Nexus or something similar. What will the iPhone's market share be by the time iPhone 5 finally emerges?
No offense but your argument is full of TROLL-NESS.
Once you start on that bells and whistles narrative you start to, IMHO, degrade the product.
The iPhone doesn't need all that BS. Just take a lot at Apple financial results from last quarter.
Prepare to be bashed. Everyone will tell you that it's just as good ( it isn't) and can run all the same programs (it can't).
Until it can run a full version of FileMaker, office (or numbers in landscape!), and a real photo editing program (Instagram doesn't count)- it isn't in the same discussion as a laptop.
Hell- even a netbook can run FileMaker and photoshop elements (which is better than anything the iPad has to offer).
I have an iPad- but I don't pretend it's something it's not. (before you start- yes, it eats into laptop market share- big time. Yes- it's a pc, but should be in its own category)
Flame on....
That chart only shows ~62-63% of market share combined. That did stand out to me....
You have an iPad and you don't know that Number can run in landscape?
I agree the iPad will dominate the market and be streets ahead of the competition, that's obvious. What's less obvious is why Apple has been letting it's iPhone market share move away to Android so rapidly. Where is the innovation with the iPhone? Where are the killer specs? (Apple claims not to care about specs, but you can be sure a quad core GPU/GPU and high PPI screen will be all over the iPad 3 marketing materials)
If you want a high end phone Apple have nothing to offer, and you end up with a Galaxy Nexus or something similar. What will the iPhone's market share be by the time iPhone 5 finally emerges?
You're probably trolling since the iPhone 4S is a high-end phone by any standards but here's a challenge: show me a single Android game that looks better than the games I can get on the iPhone. All these tech specs are worthless without software that takes advantage of them.
Hell- even a netbook can run FileMaker and photoshop elements (which is better than anything the iPad has to offer).
Having every program for an OS platform as the definition of a PC means that no platform is a PC.
2) I remember my first netbook couldn't even play Hulu at 480p without stuttering. Even at 360p there was an occasional stutter and it ran the battery down in a little over an hour.
That chart only shows ~62-63% of market share combined. That did stand out to me....
The chart also only shows major PC vendors, not the innumerable little players which should account for the discrepancy.
Nothing significant? 7" kindle eating up the bottom market share (no discussion if it's even the same market), and quad core 1920x1200 tablets showing up. ICS unifying smartphone and tablet android OS.
You might says apple beats them on quality/usability or whatever, but there's a lot going on that's quite significant.
Oh wait, another news article based on the opinion of an analyst....
Even if we take the largest results for the Kindle, one analyst said that Apple retained 59% of the market. If you define Apple as only being in the 10" market - which is fair enough - it is at 99% of that market, and everything else is going nowhere. What happened last year was that the iPad destroyed the competition in it's one and only market - and Kindle took the rest. Everybody else collapsed. Oh, how we forget the BlackBerry, and the.... other iPad killers we forget.
The Kindle means that there is no market for Android manufacturers at the low end, as they have no way to differentiate on the OS, and Amazon is taking a loss, and when the Kindle releases the 10" version the same there. Meanwhile most people are using the Fire as an e-reader only, so there are few apps. All this actually covers Apple' back.
I agree the iPad will dominate the market and be streets ahead of the competition, that's obvious. What's less obvious is why Apple has been letting it's iPhone market share move away to Android so rapidly. Where is the innovation with the iPhone? Where are the killer specs? (Apple claims not to care about specs, but you can be sure a quad core GPU/GPU and high PPI screen will be all over the iPad 3 marketing materials)
If you want a high end phone Apple have nothing to offer, and you end up with a Galaxy Nexus or something similar. What will the iPhone's market share be by the time iPhone 5 finally emerges?
Pretty high I imagine given that the 4S - not yet on sale in China - took Apple to dominent position in Q4, at least in the US. The iPhone 5 will probably be out in June.
So, back to the main topic. I bought my sister an iPad 1 in Christmas 2010, she has seen no reason to update yes, I bet a Retina display will force her hand. Thats a mere few months. She can sell the iPad 1, of course.
The cost of ownership of any iPad ( or Apple product) is the cost of depreciation of the last one if you are doing a model to model switch. Which means the update to an iPad3 for most of the existing clientele will be about $200 or less. ( It would be less if you sold now and waited, but a lot will come on the market). How much of the installed base will upgrade given this reality? 50% in a few months? 80% by end of year? Something like that, and there will be first buyer momentum as well of course. And Apple will probably keep the iPad 2 and drop the price significantly.
You have an iPad and you don't know that Number can run in landscape?
Instagram isn't really a photo editing program, it's a set of filters.
You're probably trolling since the iPhone 4S is a high-end phone by any standards but here's a challenge: show me a single Android game that looks better than the games I can get on the iPhone. All these tech specs are worthless without software that takes advantage of them.
sshhh, don't mention Bluetooth 4.0 or GLONASS support, leave the troll to stew in his misconceptions.
Prepare to be bashed. Everyone will tell you that it's just as good ( it isn't) and can run all the same programs (it can't).
Until it can run a full version of FileMaker, office (or numbers in landscape!), and a real photo editing program (Instagram doesn't count)- it isn't in the same discussion as a laptop.
Hell- even a netbook can run FileMaker and photoshop elements (which is better than anything the iPad has to offer).
I have an iPad- but I don't pretend it's something it's not. (before you start- yes, it eats into laptop market share- big time. Yes- it's a pc, but should be in its own category)
Flame on....
That chart only shows ~62-63% of market share combined. That did stand out to me....
FileMaker Go and Photoshop Express both provide a better Usability than anything on a NetBook. I have used elements and FileMaker on a Nebook and I have used Express and FileMaker Go on an iPad. There is a reason the iPad has decimated the NetBook market. The 900 I spen on my iPad has proven a much better investment than the 300 I wasted on a NetBook.