It'll be such a disappointment...if it's named iPhone 4G and has the same form factor. who cares that the insides would be better. Same form factor, not named 5/6 = failure.
It'll be such a disappointment...if it's named iPhone 4G and has the same form factor. who cares that the insides would be better. Same form factor, not named 5/6 = failure.
Last year was the first fall release... 16 months between update. Apple's pattern prior to that 4 years in a row was a one year release date.
Personally, I still think there is a chance for a late June reveal, early July release.
To me it totally depends on what Apple's number crunchers say. Last year they saw a serious drop off of sales in calendar quarter 2011. I think the phone is ready and Apple will release the next phone June if they see too much of a drop off in this quarter. Later only makes sense if 4S sales are strong over the next 2 quarters. ...
I think you are reasoning from the "wrong end" here.
The only drop off in sales volume the iPhone has ever experienced is last year because of the 16 months instead of twelve. This is the only time when Android was really "ahead" as well. This wasn't because the device wasn't ready or that they were having problems getting it out the door it was a deliberate planned move. Apple has rarely shown any trouble in meeting the yearly product release cycle for iPods and iPhones and iPads, and all the rumours of them delaying the 4s for technical reasons are actually completely unsubstantiated.
It was a one time hit necessary because they intentionally moved the iPhone release date to the Fall.
You only have to look at the sales graph of iPods (the *only* Apple product actually declining in sales), to see that they needed a *star* for the September event to replace it.
The iPhone next will be released on the day Apple thinks will result in the biggest sales. A lot of factors will go into the decision. Renewals, available,supply, competitor release plans. No analysts outside of Apple have even a slight idea of what that day will be. It is like.tring to guess the picture based on two pieces from a 1000 piece puzzle.it is just as likely to be a frog as a moon or a space station.
The only drop off in sales volume the iPhone has ever experienced is last year because of the 16 months instead of twelve.
Don't forget the end of the first iPhone release when they stopped production of the original that caused about 6 weeks of virtually no sales for the device.
Quote:
This is the only time when Android was really "ahead" as well.
Are we talking Android OS for all devices compared to iOS for all devices or Android OS for smartphones compared to IOS for iPhone?
The iPhone next will be released on the day Apple thinks will result in the biggest sales. A lot of factors will go into the decision. Renewals, available,supply, competitor release plans. No analysts outside of Apple have even a slight idea of what that day will be. It is like.tring to guess the picture based on two pieces from a 1000 piece puzzle.it is just as likely to be a frog as a moon or a space station.
I think that is why they moved to a fall release date to begin with. You always see those numbers that 50% of consumer spending (or whatever the actual # is, but it's way higher than 25%) is done in the 4th quarter. With Apple releasing the iphone in the summer, it was a 6 month old (give or take) phone by Christmas. Launching it in October made it brand new for Christmas & had to help sales compared to Android phones. And October was still close enough to the beginnign of school that anyone who wanted to send their kid to college with a new smartphone could wait it out.
I really think that the fall refresh is the way to go. When ipods were the big drivers they were updated in the fall (IIRC). Now the iphone has taken over that spot in the lineup.
I want to know if other vendors are going to learn from Apple's yearly release cycle or continue flooding the market with poorly serviced bi-monthy release cycles. Of all the things companies copy from Apple the things they don't seem to copy are the unprotected business model and quality that has made Apple the leader in all arms of its business.
The biggest advantage of an iPhone fall release appears to be the ample opportunity for Apple to finish up iOS which is typically introduced to developers at the World Wide Developers Conference.
Good point. Announce the new iOS at WWDC and ship with the new iPhone in Sept/Oct.
I hope this doesn't mean the end of new iPods every Sept/Oct.
I think so, too. The iPod market is dwindling fast enough that it shouldn't be the focus of an entire event. Plus, with the iPad (and now iPod Touch) being rleased about 6 months apart with mostly the same components they can space out the component inventory crunch better.
I expect the iPad to have a quad-core Cortex-A9, the Touch to be updated along side it but with the A5 in the current iPhone, then in the Fall the 6th generation iPhone to get a dial-core Cortex-A15 with the iPad to get a quad-core Cortex-A15 about 6 months later.
iPhone coming out in October is perfect, lines them up nicely for the holiday sales. If they release the phone in the summer, it's still popular, but less "ooh shiny" factor by Christmas. Previously the iPod was the big sales item. That's been replaced.
Also, why would you expect the processor to split designs? Part of Apple's economy of scale is the fact that so far, they have been debuting a new processor in the iPad, then having it trickle down to the iPhone later that year. This lets them buy many more of the same processors and have a lower cost per chip. I don't think they will go quad A9 iPad, dual A15 iPhone, quad A15 iPad. That just doesn't make sense w/the way Apple is currently doing business.
I think so, too. The iPod market is dwindling fast enough that it shouldn't be the focus of an entire event. Plus, with the iPad (and now iPod Touch) being rleased about 6 months apart with mostly the same components they can space out the component inventory crunch better.
I expect the iPad to have a quad-core Cortex-A9, the Touch to be updated along side it but with the A5 in the current iPhone, then in the Fall the 6th generation iPhone to get a dial-core Cortex-A15 with the iPad to get a quad-core Cortex-A15 about 6 months later.
New iPad, new iPhone, new Mac. Going to be a costly year.
PS: I appreciate Neil Hughes using the "sixth-gen iPhone" in the title and article.
Really? Typically, the iPad has been the device with the newest chipset, with the iPhone getting an underclocked version later.
Also, why would you expect the processor to split designs? Part of Apple's economy of scale is the fact that so far, they have been debuting a new processor in the iPad, then having it trickle down to the iPhone later that year. This lets them buy many more of the same processors and have a lower cost per chip. I don't think they will go quad A9 iPad, dual A15 iPhone, quad A15 iPad. That just doesn't make sense w/the way Apple is currently doing business.
1) Apple is making so many of these processors between just the iPad and just the iPhone that there is probably little to no gain at that level of scale. By then the cost per unit has long since plateaued for the years the device will be sold.
2) Apple's A# PoPs are showing to be unique between the iPad and iPhone even when having the same name. So far they've had the same processor but there have been some differences. For instance the iPad A4 had only 256MB RAM yet the iPhone's A4 had 512MB RAM. There is also the iPad's A5 not having the Audience EarSmart noise reduction tech that came in the iPhone's A5 chip.
3) This is an unusual time for ARM in that he quad-core Cortex-A9s are at production now, with the dual-core Cortex-A15s are suppose to be at production when the next iPhone is ready and the quad-core Cortex-A15s are tentatively suppose to be at production around this time next year when the iPad 4 is expected to drop.
4) So should Apple not use Cortex-A15 this year simply to stick with the same CPU as the iPad even though there are difference between them for the same year and name, and when there is likely no cost savings, especially when you consider that Cortex-A15 could reduce power usage while increasing performance thus increasing sales for the device? I don't think so.
Big sigh. I know lots of us who bought an iPhone 4 the day it was released in June 2010 were hoping for an iPhone 5 as our AT&T contracts expire. I'll qualify for a 4S upgrade soon, but I think it's worth it to wait for a 5. Ah well. It really does make sense for Apple to release a new iPhone in Fall.
Ditto. AT&T is the reason I am skipping the 4S. I am waiting for the iPhone 4SS
iPhone coming out in October is perfect, lines them up nicely for the holiday sales. If they release the phone in the summer, it's still popular, but less "ooh shiny" factor by Christmas. Previously the iPod was the big sales item. That's been replaced.
I think that is the big reason for the move.
Quote:
Also, why would you expect the processor to split designs? Part of Apple's economy of scale is the fact that so far, they have been debuting a new processor in the iPad, then having it trickle down to the iPhone later that year. This lets them buy many more of the same processors and have a lower cost per chip. I don't think they will go quad A9 iPad, dual A15 iPhone, quad A15 iPad. That just doesn't make sense w/the way Apple is currently doing business.
Depending on yields, which seems to be an issue at TSMC right now, it could be possible that Apple does this via harvesting.
So a dual A15 processor may be the same as a quad A15 ipad, but with one or two defective cores. Instead of throwing away the chip, Apple disables 2 of the cores and sells it in an iPhone.
Other companies (Intel, nVidia, AMD, etc) employ this strategy.
I think you are reasoning from the "wrong end" here.
The only drop off in sales volume the iPhone has ever experienced is last year because of the 16 months instead of twelve.
Well, there shouldn't have been any drop off in sales according to your logic. Please note there was one other drop off as well and I'm not sure if Solipsism is totally correct in saying that it was because of a complete lack of production. I'm also wondering if you have a crystal ball because you seem to be saying that there won't be a drop off in sales for this quarter compared to the holiday quarter. News to me, I haven't seen the figures yet. Please provide a link. If Apple sees a drop 2 quarters in a row you can believe the update will happen sooner than later. Regardless, it won't matter next year because the v6 iPhone will have blow out sales for much longer than the usual one year cycle.
Quote:
This is the only time when Android was really "ahead" as well. This wasn't because the device wasn't ready or that they were having problems getting it out the door it was a deliberate planned move. Apple has rarely shown any trouble in meeting the yearly product release cycle for iPods and iPhones and iPads, and all the rumours of them delaying the 4s for technical reasons are actually completely unsubstantiated.
It was a one time hit necessary because they intentionally moved the iPhone release date to the Fall.
LOL. I never even mentioned this but, please, knock yourself out. By the way, nobody has ever proven one way or the other that this was a planned move or that it was necessary because of changes to iOS that Apple wanted to incorporate into the 4S on release. Maybe you have insider information. Link please.
Quote:
You only have to look at the sales graph of iPods (the *only* Apple product actually declining in sales), to see that they needed a *star* for the September event to replace it.
LOL! There's that crystal ball thing again... actually, it looks like more insider information. Link please. Why couldn't that *star* event be the new TV this year? Perfect for the holiday quarter.
I want to know if other vendors are going to learn from Apple's yearly release cycle or continue flooding the market with poorly serviced bi-monthy release cycles. Of all the things companies copy from Apple the things they don't seem to copy are the unprotected business model and quality that has made Apple the leader in all arms of its business.
i agree....Apple chooses quality over quantity and blends hardware with software into an overall device experience. Taking their time for better design and inovation in their product.
Comments
It'll be such a disappointment...if it's named iPhone 4G and has the same form factor. who cares that the insides would be better. Same form factor, not named 5/6 = failure.
Sarcasm?
Last year was the first fall release... 16 months between update. Apple's pattern prior to that 4 years in a row was a one year release date.
Personally, I still think there is a chance for a late June reveal, early July release.
To me it totally depends on what Apple's number crunchers say. Last year they saw a serious drop off of sales in calendar quarter 2011. I think the phone is ready and Apple will release the next phone June if they see too much of a drop off in this quarter. Later only makes sense if 4S sales are strong over the next 2 quarters. ...
I think you are reasoning from the "wrong end" here.
The only drop off in sales volume the iPhone has ever experienced is last year because of the 16 months instead of twelve. This is the only time when Android was really "ahead" as well. This wasn't because the device wasn't ready or that they were having problems getting it out the door it was a deliberate planned move. Apple has rarely shown any trouble in meeting the yearly product release cycle for iPods and iPhones and iPads, and all the rumours of them delaying the 4s for technical reasons are actually completely unsubstantiated.
It was a one time hit necessary because they intentionally moved the iPhone release date to the Fall.
You only have to look at the sales graph of iPods (the *only* Apple product actually declining in sales), to see that they needed a *star* for the September event to replace it.
The only drop off in sales volume the iPhone has ever experienced is last year because of the 16 months instead of twelve.
Don't forget the end of the first iPhone release when they stopped production of the original that caused about 6 weeks of virtually no sales for the device.
This is the only time when Android was really "ahead" as well.
Are we talking Android OS for all devices compared to iOS for all devices or Android OS for smartphones compared to IOS for iPhone?
The iPhone next will be released on the day Apple thinks will result in the biggest sales. A lot of factors will go into the decision. Renewals, available,supply, competitor release plans. No analysts outside of Apple have even a slight idea of what that day will be. It is like.tring to guess the picture based on two pieces from a 1000 piece puzzle.it is just as likely to be a frog as a moon or a space station.
I think that is why they moved to a fall release date to begin with. You always see those numbers that 50% of consumer spending (or whatever the actual # is, but it's way higher than 25%) is done in the 4th quarter. With Apple releasing the iphone in the summer, it was a 6 month old (give or take) phone by Christmas. Launching it in October made it brand new for Christmas & had to help sales compared to Android phones. And October was still close enough to the beginnign of school that anyone who wanted to send their kid to college with a new smartphone could wait it out.
I really think that the fall refresh is the way to go. When ipods were the big drivers they were updated in the fall (IIRC). Now the iphone has taken over that spot in the lineup.
The biggest advantage of an iPhone fall release appears to be the ample opportunity for Apple to finish up iOS which is typically introduced to developers at the World Wide Developers Conference.
Good point. Announce the new iOS at WWDC and ship with the new iPhone in Sept/Oct.
I hope this doesn't mean the end of new iPods every Sept/Oct.
I think so, too. The iPod market is dwindling fast enough that it shouldn't be the focus of an entire event. Plus, with the iPad (and now iPod Touch) being rleased about 6 months apart with mostly the same components they can space out the component inventory crunch better.
I expect the iPad to have a quad-core Cortex-A9, the Touch to be updated along side it but with the A5 in the current iPhone, then in the Fall the 6th generation iPhone to get a dial-core Cortex-A15 with the iPad to get a quad-core Cortex-A15 about 6 months later.
iPhone coming out in October is perfect, lines them up nicely for the holiday sales. If they release the phone in the summer, it's still popular, but less "ooh shiny" factor by Christmas. Previously the iPod was the big sales item. That's been replaced.
Also, why would you expect the processor to split designs? Part of Apple's economy of scale is the fact that so far, they have been debuting a new processor in the iPad, then having it trickle down to the iPhone later that year. This lets them buy many more of the same processors and have a lower cost per chip. I don't think they will go quad A9 iPad, dual A15 iPhone, quad A15 iPad. That just doesn't make sense w/the way Apple is currently doing business.
Lets just name it Fred.
I still don't it the 6th generation, but the 6th release.
Generations:
1st: iPhone
2nd: iPhone 3G and 3Gs
3nd: iPhone 4 and 4s
4th: Fred
My sources say they are going to drop gen numbers and just reference the year
I think so, too. The iPod market is dwindling fast enough that it shouldn't be the focus of an entire event. Plus, with the iPad (and now iPod Touch) being rleased about 6 months apart with mostly the same components they can space out the component inventory crunch better.
I expect the iPad to have a quad-core Cortex-A9, the Touch to be updated along side it but with the A5 in the current iPhone, then in the Fall the 6th generation iPhone to get a dial-core Cortex-A15 with the iPad to get a quad-core Cortex-A15 about 6 months later.
New iPad, new iPhone, new Mac. Going to be a costly year.
PS: I appreciate Neil Hughes using the "sixth-gen iPhone" in the title and article.
Really? Typically, the iPad has been the device with the newest chipset, with the iPhone getting an underclocked version later.
Also, why would you expect the processor to split designs? Part of Apple's economy of scale is the fact that so far, they have been debuting a new processor in the iPad, then having it trickle down to the iPhone later that year. This lets them buy many more of the same processors and have a lower cost per chip. I don't think they will go quad A9 iPad, dual A15 iPhone, quad A15 iPad. That just doesn't make sense w/the way Apple is currently doing business.
1) Apple is making so many of these processors between just the iPad and just the iPhone that there is probably little to no gain at that level of scale. By then the cost per unit has long since plateaued for the years the device will be sold.
2) Apple's A# PoPs are showing to be unique between the iPad and iPhone even when having the same name. So far they've had the same processor but there have been some differences. For instance the iPad A4 had only 256MB RAM yet the iPhone's A4 had 512MB RAM. There is also the iPad's A5 not having the Audience EarSmart noise reduction tech that came in the iPhone's A5 chip.
3) This is an unusual time for ARM in that he quad-core Cortex-A9s are at production now, with the dual-core Cortex-A15s are suppose to be at production when the next iPhone is ready and the quad-core Cortex-A15s are tentatively suppose to be at production around this time next year when the iPad 4 is expected to drop.
4) So should Apple not use Cortex-A15 this year simply to stick with the same CPU as the iPad even though there are difference between them for the same year and name, and when there is likely no cost savings, especially when you consider that Cortex-A15 could reduce power usage while increasing performance thus increasing sales for the device? I don't think so.
Are we talking Android OS for all devices compared to iOS for all devices or Android OS for smartphones compared to IOS for iPhone?
LOL!
You say that so often you should put it in your signature.
LOL!
You say that so often you should put it in your signature.
I probably should. I'm sure by now you have noticed I like my statements properly qualified to remove all ambiguity.
Big sigh. I know lots of us who bought an iPhone 4 the day it was released in June 2010 were hoping for an iPhone 5 as our AT&T contracts expire. I'll qualify for a 4S upgrade soon, but I think it's worth it to wait for a 5. Ah well. It really does make sense for Apple to release a new iPhone in Fall.
Ditto. AT&T is the reason I am skipping the 4S. I am waiting for the iPhone 4SS
My sources say they are going to drop gen numbers and just reference the year
That would be a good idea - iPhone 2012. That way you know exactly how old a used model is.
If the next iPhone runs on an A5X processor and runs iOS 5, it's just too confusing having it sequentially numbered after a 4S.
iPhone coming out in October is perfect, lines them up nicely for the holiday sales. If they release the phone in the summer, it's still popular, but less "ooh shiny" factor by Christmas. Previously the iPod was the big sales item. That's been replaced.
I think that is the big reason for the move.
Also, why would you expect the processor to split designs? Part of Apple's economy of scale is the fact that so far, they have been debuting a new processor in the iPad, then having it trickle down to the iPhone later that year. This lets them buy many more of the same processors and have a lower cost per chip. I don't think they will go quad A9 iPad, dual A15 iPhone, quad A15 iPad. That just doesn't make sense w/the way Apple is currently doing business.
Depending on yields, which seems to be an issue at TSMC right now, it could be possible that Apple does this via harvesting.
So a dual A15 processor may be the same as a quad A15 ipad, but with one or two defective cores. Instead of throwing away the chip, Apple disables 2 of the cores and sells it in an iPhone.
Other companies (Intel, nVidia, AMD, etc) employ this strategy.
I think you are reasoning from the "wrong end" here.
The only drop off in sales volume the iPhone has ever experienced is last year because of the 16 months instead of twelve.
Well, there shouldn't have been any drop off in sales according to your logic. Please note there was one other drop off as well and I'm not sure if Solipsism is totally correct in saying that it was because of a complete lack of production. I'm also wondering if you have a crystal ball because you seem to be saying that there won't be a drop off in sales for this quarter compared to the holiday quarter. News to me, I haven't seen the figures yet. Please provide a link. If Apple sees a drop 2 quarters in a row you can believe the update will happen sooner than later. Regardless, it won't matter next year because the v6 iPhone will have blow out sales for much longer than the usual one year cycle.
This is the only time when Android was really "ahead" as well. This wasn't because the device wasn't ready or that they were having problems getting it out the door it was a deliberate planned move. Apple has rarely shown any trouble in meeting the yearly product release cycle for iPods and iPhones and iPads, and all the rumours of them delaying the 4s for technical reasons are actually completely unsubstantiated.
It was a one time hit necessary because they intentionally moved the iPhone release date to the Fall.
LOL. I never even mentioned this but, please, knock yourself out. By the way, nobody has ever proven one way or the other that this was a planned move or that it was necessary because of changes to iOS that Apple wanted to incorporate into the 4S on release. Maybe you have insider information. Link please.
You only have to look at the sales graph of iPods (the *only* Apple product actually declining in sales), to see that they needed a *star* for the September event to replace it.
LOL! There's that crystal ball thing again... actually, it looks like more insider information. Link please. Why couldn't that *star* event be the new TV this year? Perfect for the holiday quarter.
I want to know if other vendors are going to learn from Apple's yearly release cycle or continue flooding the market with poorly serviced bi-monthy release cycles. Of all the things companies copy from Apple the things they don't seem to copy are the unprotected business model and quality that has made Apple the leader in all arms of its business.
i agree....Apple chooses quality over quantity and blends hardware with software into an overall device experience. Taking their time for better design and inovation in their product.