1/3 of US & Europe projected to own a tablet by 2016 as Apple's iPad dominates
Nearly 113 million Americans and 106 million Europeans will be tablet owners by 2016, according to a new projection that sees tremendous growth in the tablet market currently dominated by Apple.
Forrester issued a new report to its clients on Monday in which it increased its consumer tablet sales forecasts. The research firm now expects that 112.5 million U.S. adults, or 34.3 percent of the population, will own a tablet by 2016. Another 105.7 million tablet owners, or 30.4 percent of adults, are expected in Europe.
Tablet sales in the U.S. alone are expected to reach 37.9 million in 2012, growing to 60.3 million in calendar 2016.
Even as competitors have attempted to combat the iPad, Apple has maintained market dominance with an estimated 73 percent of sales in the U.S. The new figures come as Apple is prepared to unveil its next iPad in a highly anticipated media event on Wednesday.
Forrester believes the iPad's chief competitor at the moment is the Amazon Kindle Fire, which analyst Sarah Rotman Epps said is believed to have reached sales of 5.5 million in its first quarter on the market.
Whether or not Apple will, Epps believes the company should produce a smaller, cheaper iPad to capture market share from both Amazon and Barnes & Noble, which have addressed the lower end of the market with their touchscreen tablets. While Forrester's surveys have found that 62 percent of tablet shoppers prefer a 10-inch screen, 26 percent said they would like a smaller screen, and 20 percent are undecided.
Word of a so-called "iPad mini" has picked up in recent weeks, thanks to a number of reports that have claimed Apple is buying touchscreens sized between 7 and 8 inches. But the late Apple co-founder Steve Jobs famously panned 7-inch tablets back in 2010, calling them too small to be usable.
As for Android-based tablets beyond the Kindle Fire or Barnes & Noble Nook, which run customized versions of Google's mobile operating system, Epps believes vendors should abandon android and jump ship to Windows. She believes that those who expect Android to find success in the tablet market as it has done with smartphones are wrong.
"Conscious adoption of Android phones is much lower than actual Android adoption due to inconsistent branding from OEMs and carriers," she wrote. "Android implementation on tablets suffers from the same fragmented branding: T-Mobile advertises its own Android tablet 'with Google,' while OEMs boast of 'Ice Cream Sandwich' and other marketing terms that don't resonate with mainstream consumers."
While Android tablets have grown thanks largely to Amazon and Barnes & Noble, Epps noted that Forrester's research has found most consumers say they would rather buy a Windows tablet than a one running Google Android.
"We don't think it's a matter of time before HTC, Lenovo, or Samsung tablets start to sell — unless they're running Windows," she said. "Android OEMs would do best to dial down their investment in Android and shift investment to Windows to leverage Microsoft's still-strong consumer brand, enterprise acceptance, and global scale."
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Comments
Has anyone experienced Win8 on an ARM-based tablet? Thoughts?
iPod domination redux: Only this time much, much faster.
Has anyone experienced Win8 on an ARM-based tablet? Thoughts?
I haven't experienced it but I know by looking at videos of it that its "swipe-in-blind" gestures will confuse many people who would otherwise not be confused by the iPad. The Verge doesn't understand this. The elegance of the iPad, iPhone OS paradigm remains king. I also particularly like the fact that the iPad is always only one app taking up the whole screen at a time. The iPad was never about look how much I can do at once, it's about look how simple and elegant this computer is.
Even with how much of a break from the MS crap Metro is they still don't get it. Only being able to use one app on the iPad's screen at any one time is not a disadvantage, it's what makes the iPad, for me. When I launch Square Register I want to think: "my iPad is a register". One app per screen means the device becomes the app. I think there's something fundamental to that. And the added benefit of this means a religious sort of simplicity that makes the iPad sing. It's actually physiologically calming.
Microsoft can only hope that its Windows 8 can run on tablets and not use all the RAM and CPU just to handle the touch screen input from the users. Windows 8 looks flashy but on all the demonstrations nothing was really being done besides flipping windows around. There was no explanation about which processors were being used and what percentage of them was being used for those simple swipes and opening windows actions.
Let them show some movie editing and rendering on Windows 8 with its touch screen input. Will the device freeze or can it handle it without hiccups?
I haven't experienced it but I know by looking at videos of that with its swipe-in-blind gestures that it will confuse many people who would otherwise not be confused by the iPad. The Verge doesn't understand this. The elegance of the iPad, iPhone OS paradigm remains king. I also particularly like the fact that the iPad is always only one app taking up the whole screen at a time.
The Verge demo guy was a bit douche and out of touch. I liked a lot of what I saw with Win8. It was slick having another app on the side, which is great for landscape in a widescreen device, but what about portrait. He didn't rotate it once.
The smoothness and reaction times look as natural and elegant as iOS but was that machine Intel-based? He did keep it plugged in for some reason surely the battery would have lasted longer than the 10 minute video.
Personally I like what MS is achieving with the "look and feel" of Metro Ui but I think they are making a huge mistake by calling this advancement Windows and by trying to put the same OS on traditional PCs and tablets. Nice in theory but when you have two distinct UIs because you have two distinct methods for input you just end up with two distinct UIs which destroys the familiarity reason.
I agree the gestures could take some getting use to. Even ML has some off-trackpad gestures that don't seem comfortable but that could be because of the lip size between the casing and trackpad.
When OS X is fully merged with iOS Apple will only manufacture tablets with remote keyboards. The Apple computer revolution will be fully implemented and Microsoft will begin to die faster and faster.
I see no evidence of that happening.
The Verge demo guy was a bit douche and out of touch. I liked a lot of what I saw with Win8. It was slick having another app on the side, which is great for landscape in a widescreen device, but what about portrait. He didn't rotate it once.
Win 8 is designed with landscape in mind.
Win 8 is designed with landscape in mind.
In mind, is fine. The iPad was designed with landscape in mind, too... but they also had portrait in mind, as well as the various ways in which these orientations would be used. Are you not suppose to read books on a Win8 tablet? Except for having something like Outlook on the right side and Internet Explorer in the main window it seems very limiting. Perhaps it could be a traditional PC replacement for users but if they have to make a huge switch they might just choose Apple's products. This seems to work when Vista hit the market.
Absolute nonsense. Looks like some 6th grader pulled out a ruler and drew some lines....
lol..
iPod domination redux: Only this time much, much faster.
Has anyone experienced Win8 on an ARM-based tablet? Thoughts?
Here's a good writeup from Christian Cantrell, from Adobe. I had dealings with Christian a few years back -- trying to design a web site with real-time stock updates using Flash, ColdFusion, Mac OS X... we couldn't get get Flash to perform fast enough... Christian is a good guy, thorough, helpful and forthcoming... I, very much respect his opinion.
Windows 8: A Giant Misstep Forward
Here's another -- I have no experience with this writer:
That Windows 8 experience? Confusing. Confusing as hell
Both of these are through Gruber.
While neither is Win8 ARM (or even Win8 Tablet) specific -- both articles seem to suggest that Windows Everywhere is a bad dream -- that Windows sans Metro wil survive on the desktop -- that Metro sans Windows is MS's only hope for the tablet... regardless of ARM, Intel.
I haven't experienced it but I know by looking at videos of it that its "swipe-in-blind" gestures will confuse many people who would otherwise not be confused by the iPad. The Verge doesn't understand this. The elegance of the iPad, iPhone OS paradigm remains king. I also particularly like the fact that the iPad is always only one app taking up the whole screen at a time. The iPad was never about look how much I can do at once, it's about look how simple and elegant this computer is.
Even with how much of a break from the MS crap Metro is they still don't get it. Only being able to use one app on the iPad's screen at any one time is not a disadvantage, it's what makes the iPad, for me. When I launch Square Register I want to think: "my iPad is a register". One app per screen means the device becomes the app. I think there's something fundamental to that. And the added benefit of this means a religious sort of simplicity that makes the iPad sing. It's actually physiologically calming.
I agree almost 99 and 99/100% pure (it floats).
I like the "in your face" focus of iOS... that's what makes it intuitive and and more productive (less distracting).
However, there are times when I want to exchange information among apps -- and switching between apps is a little clunky.
MS Metro has a paradigm where:
-- one app occupies the entire screen
-- a second app can be dragged to occupy half the screen
-- both apps are active, side-by-side
I think MS calls this feature "snap window".
It is an OS level implementation, and I assume there is an API so that each app could adjust between using 1/2 the screen and all the screen.
IMO, a snap window would be of particular advantage on a 9.7" retina display.
In your "Square Register Example" -- wouldn't it be nice (on a call in order like a pizza) if you could bring up the customer contact app screen side-by-side with the register... if only for a moment to verify/copy/paste customer info...
In your "Square Register Example" -- wouldn't it be nice (on a call in order like a pizza) if you could bring up the customer contact app screen side-by-side with the register... if only for a moment to verify/copy/paste customer info...
I think it would be better if the app had access to the contacts DB.
What would also be cool is that phone orders could be routed through the device so even though you are using it there could be a section of the UI that is showing you food items and other data that it thinks it's hearing so it can save you time with taking the order.
When OS X is fully merged with iOS Apple will only manufacture tablets with remote keyboards. The Apple computer revolution will be fully implemented and Microsoft will begin to die faster and faster.
Microsoft can only hope that its Windows 8 can run on tablets and not use all the RAM and CPU just to handle the touch screen input from the users. Windows 8 looks flashy but on all the demonstrations nothing was really being done besides flipping windows around. There was no explanation about which processors were being used and what percentage of them was being used for those simple swipes and opening windows actions.
Let them show some movie editing and rendering on Windows 8 with its touch screen input. Will the device freeze or can it handle it without hiccups?
I suspect that one of the first apps you'll see on Windows 8 ARM will be Avid Studio. It is already available on the iPad, and has more capability than iMovie iPad. Also, Avid has a companion Desktop app on Windows, but none on OS X.
I assume that MS, if they focus their efforts, should be able to do a pretty good job integrating the OS, hardware, and developer APIs -- and exploit each!
I think it would be better if the app had access to the contacts DB.
What would also be cool is that phone orders could be routed through the device so even though you are using it there could be a section of the UI that is showing you food items and other data that it thinks it's hearing so it can save you time with taking the order.
Yeah... that wasn't the best example... except, as of today Square Register doesn't have a [that] feature, and the Contacts app does... so it is an expedient.
As to phone orders... "Siri: I'd like a large garbage pizza with extra sausage and thin crisp crust..."
Really...
I like your ideas!
SOT, but there is so much possibility for POST with today's iPad hardware it's mind boggling.
Back in the early 1980's before Macs, we sold a POST system to Bullwinkles Pizza in Santa Clara -- Apple ][s and printers at the waiter order station, call in order station, kitchen connected via a LAN to a 5MB HDD... No RAM, CPU/GPU capability, WiFi, AirPrint, SQLite, Touch, CC Reader, Camera... though we did sell an Apple ][ that could open a cash drawer (with some custom programming).
It did the job exceptionally well and was featured as an "attraction" at the restaurant... being in the heart of Silicon Valley and all that!
Not too far in the future, most restaurants will furnish iPads to each place setting so that customers can enter their orders... and leave them for the customer to surf, work (iCloud), play games, while waiting for their orders.
Also, customers will be able to download an app/menu for their favorite restaurants and pre-order before they even arrive on site.
MS Metro has a paradigm where:
-- one app occupies the entire screen
-- a second app can be dragged to occupy half the screen
-- both apps are active, side-by-side
I think MS calls this feature "snap window".
It's yucky yucky yucky. What you want is a laptop.
IMO, a snap window would be of particular advantage on a 9.7" retina display.
I'm not saying it isn't going to happen eventually. Just that I'd personally prefer if it didn't. And I know many non-tech-savvy people who the iPad is a better product for because the iPad doesn't do this. You're a geek. You're the exception not the rule.
In your "Square Register Example" -- wouldn't it be nice (on a call in order like a pizza) if you could bring up the customer contact app screen side-by-side with the register... if only for a moment to verify/copy/paste customer info...
The app itself does that. It's the job of the developer of the app to cater for these scenarios; especially given your example. Like the way the Facebook app does Facebook chat. You see, doing a little thing on the side is a small feature, you don't want or need a full app for this. And the benefit of not doing that snap thing is focus, simplicity and elegance; three words I feel encapsulate and pretty much define the iPad. And with a touch screen bitmap display developers should easily be able to cater to almost every scenario like the example you gave.
The trouble with MS and their thinking with Win 8 is they think they can cater to every scenario successfully, but you can't, and when you try usability suffers.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/06/bu...h-screens.html
Windows tablets - ROFLOL! It just goes to show how ignorant many consumers are. Just look at the clusterfk Ford is experiencing having partnered with Microsucks. The great thing is that MSFT is now irrelevant in the mobile space, including tablets. They've had one for years and could never get people to buy them and that is not likely to change. Here's the Ford / MSFT fiasco:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/06/bu...h-screens.html
I think Win8 is going to suffer on tablets but if they come out with it a year before the iPad I think it would have been widely accepted and touted. It's a lot like like WinPh compared to iOS. It's good... but not nearly good enough. Though in case Win8 falls a lot shorter than WinPh to iOS, IMO.
In fact, I keep my iPad on my night table so as I wake up in the morning, I just turn it on and read the latest Twitter posts of everyone I follow, the latest Facebook postings of everyone I "liked," and the latest news from CNN, USA Today, Fox News and BBC News from their respective iPad apps.