Led by Apple's iPad, tablet sales seen exceeding desktop PCs in 2013
Industry insiders now believe there will be greater consumer demand for the rapidly expanding tablet market, led by Apple's iPad, than there will be for desktop PCs in 2013.
Global tablet sales are expected by Taiwan-based PC makers to reach 130 million next year, DigiTimes. That could be enough to exceed worldwide demand for traditional desktop PCs.
Total worldwide tablet sales in 2011 were said to be 60 million units, with Apple accounting for 40 million of those. Industrywide sales are expected to reach 90 million to 95 million units in 2012, with Apple's new Retina Display iPad the most popular option among consumers.
"Since more tablet PC hybrids will appear in 2013 with some even featuring traditional PC functions, the tablet PC market is likely to enjoy surging growth similar to that of the smartphone market, helping its shipments to trail closely behind global network shipments," the report said.
Late Apple co-founder Steve Jobs predicted the market transition in 2010, when the iPad was still new to the market. Speaking at the All Things D conference, he said the transformation from traditional PCs to new form factors like the tablet is "inevitable."
Jobs compared the coming market shift to a time in the U.S. automobile industry when most vehicles were trucks, because they were driven by farmers. But as cities rose, cars became more popular, and smaller cars gained features like power steering and automatic transition over time.
"PCs are going to be like trucks," Jobs said, noting that they would still be around, but would represent a smaller number of people.
In unveiling the new iPad this week, Apple's executives repeatedly spoke of "post-PC," a term they use to refer to the iPad. For Apple, the iPad already easily outsells the Mac, as last quarter it sold three times as many iPads as Macs.
In fact, if iPad sales are included alongside Macs, Apple is already the largest PC maker in the world. Data released in January from Canalys showed that categorizing the iPad as a PC allowed Apple to leapfrog HP to become the world's No. 1 PC vendor.
Though mobile laptops have taken over the PC industry, desktops remain an important part of the market. Apple has found its greatest success with the iMac, which accounts for nearly a third of all-in-one desktop PC sales. Portable MacBooks, however, still account for about three-quarters of all Mac sales.
[ View article on AppleInsider ]
Comments
http://www.asymco.com/2012/03/02/whe...the-pc-market/
BTW, the picture could change significantly if Apple does morph the MacBooks into tablet pc's. Remember ASUS building a tablet with a slot for a smartphone, calling it the PadFone? I think the next evolution could be Apple combining their notebook, tablet and smartphone in a similar do-it-all form. Intel is moving in that direction and various Apple patents and trademarks point that way too.
I am looking forward to reading AI in five years and looking back to this. By then the interesting thing will be to see what companies are left standing. This is going to ravage the PC clone makers to the point of extinction for many and their attempts to make a tablet will probably accelerate their demise. Unless Microsoft can manage to come up with an mobile OS that gets traction they face a bleak future by fast too. That leaves Google and a few companies battling over the lower end of the phone market but even that starts to get hard if all the tablets are iPads.
I think the iPad as we see it now may not even exist in another two years. See my edit above.
What are people like me going to do who rely on the Mac Pro for 3D modeling, and animation? The iPad just won't cut it for me. I think Apple is just about ready to kill the Mac Pro.
I hope not ... After all we need trucks!
What are people like me going to do who rely on the Mac Pro for 3D modeling, and animation? The iPad just won't cut it for me.
Then you continue to use a Mac Pro.
I think Apple is just about ready to kill the Mac Pro.
There's no evidence of that.
I wonder if the same thing will happen with tablets, with cheaper, more limited devices selling for a while but demand for them falling away whereas higher end devices will continue to sell?
I think the iPad as we see it now may not even exist in another two years. See my edit above.
I agree the morphing will continue in all directions. Along with portable versions I predict large tablet devices to use on the desk top and I see communications possibly coming to the tablets too, after all why pick up another device if you could tap an icon to talk to someone. The iPad as we know it will be very powerful in five years and maybe very different for sure.
I also predict Windows 8 is DOA for this reason. MS went out of their way to create something that wasn't a copy of iOS, to their credit, but Apple spent a very long time designing the best possible user experience and a new OS from the ground up. By simply bringing out an adapted version of the same old thing only mobile, MS has totally missed the point, it's not about simply being mobile and not looking like iOS ... It's about a decade of research and development.
I truly believe Apple had a detailed long term plan which they have been working towards as technology becomes possible and we only get to see a small part each time they release products and services. All their competition are blindly reacting to these releases by copying and rushing me too products to market. Their products a not part of any long term, coordinated plan like Apple's and we see them dropping like flies every month.
I think the iPad as we see it now may not even exist in another two years. See my edit above.
What are people like me going to do who rely on the Mac Pro for 3D modeling, and animation? The iPad just won't cut it for me. I think Apple is just about ready to kill the Mac Pro.
My guess is in five years you and I will be using a very large touch based based system that is designed for pros and for creation. It will be as big of a leap forward as the Mac and a mouse was over the IBM PC that used DOS and a keyboard. When we introduced folks to the Mac many screamed they needed a command line and could not see the future of creativity unleashed by the mouse and a GUI. I suspect in five years we will look back at the OS X GUI and remember fondly as we use a touch interface, artificial intelligence, voice input and cloud services on a large screen and will be many times more productive. By the way the screens will be angled for comfort not verticle all the time ...
I am looking forward to reading AI in five years and looking back to this. By then the interesting thing will be to see what companies are left standing. This is going to ravage the PC clone makers to the point of extinction for many and their attempts to make a tablet will probably accelerate their demise. Unless Microsoft can manage to come up with an mobile OS that gets traction they face a bleak future by fast too. That leaves Google and a few companies battling over the lower end of the phone market but even that starts to get hard if all the tablets are iPads.
You are assuming that the tablets are replacing desktop/laptops. To some extent they are but mostly they are in addition to.
For myself, I could see everyone in my family (4) having a tablet but we would still have the need for the traditional PC (1 desktop and at least one laptop). At work I can't think of anyone who would get a tablet if that meant they had to give up their PC.
With the exception of the AIR class laptop the PC market is close to saturated so there won't be much growth but there will still be the need for a steady supply of replacements.
What are people like me going to do who rely on the Mac Pro for 3D modeling, and animation? The iPad just won't cut it for me. I think Apple is just about ready to kill the Mac Pro.
The iPad has enough horsepower run OSX. It is a matter of time... As for size I just bought a Samsung Series 7 with 4GB of RAM and the l5 CPU for 3D modeling.
The iPad has enough horsepower run OSX. It is a matter of time... As for size I just bought a Samsung Series 7 with 4GB of RAM and the l5 CPU for 3D modeling.
updated.
The iPad has enough horsepower run OSX. It is a matter of time?
No, it will never happen.
The iPad has enough horsepower run OSX. It is a matter of time... As for size I just bought a Samsung Series 7 with 4GB of RAM and the l5 CPU for 3D modeling.
I tried imovie on the iPad and was totally frustrated. It takes a lot of horsepower and memory to edit video. I just got my son an I7 with 8 Gb. This was a step up from an older quad core AMD and 4 Gb. His comment was that Adobe finally runs properly. .
As an aside, the school he is attending is is likely going to replace FCP with either adobe or avid. They don't seem to be impressed with fcpx.
Apple made a wise business decision to focus on the mass consumer market vs the pro market. It doesn't bother me, but I can understand how the pro user feels abandoned.
DigiTimes says that 130 million non-iPad tablets will be sold in 2013? That seems highly unlikely.
It's DigiTimes; did you expect otherwise?
You are assuming that the tablets are replacing desktop/laptops. To some extent they are but mostly they are in addition to.
For myself, I could see everyone in my family (4) having a tablet but we would still have the need for the traditional PC (1 desktop and at least one laptop). At work I can't think of anyone who would get a tablet if that meant they had to give up their PC.
With the exception of the AIR class laptop the PC market is close to saturated so there won't be much growth but there will still be the need for a steady supply of replacements.
I disagree on the home user front. It's just a matter of time. The vast majority of home users with a PC (by which I mean a Wintel box) who get an iPad will never bother getting another PC. A tremendous number of PC sales to home users was done by offing another one cheaper than the cost of fixing their screwed up OS by nerds and shops alike. These folks only used them for email, web browsing and dealing with their digital music and photos plus games. Once they have had an iPad for a while the thought of getting another PC Will be far from their minds.
I agree those of us with higher computing needs will be using both for a few years to come. I do in fact see the Mac user base growing for some time to come.
I agree the morphing will continue in all directions. Along with portable versions I predict large tablet devices to use on the desk top and I see communications possibly coming to the tablets too, after all why pick up another device if you could tap an icon to talk to someone. The iPad as we know it will be very powerful in five years and maybe very different for sure.
I also predict Windows 8 is DOA for this reason. MS went out of their way to create something that wasn't a copy of iOS, to their credit, but Apple spent a very long time designing the best possible user experience and a new OS from the ground up. By simply bringing out an adapted version of the same old thing only mobile, MS has totally missed the point, it's not about simply being mobile and not looking like iOS ... It's about a decade of research and development.
I truly believe Apple had a detailed long term plan which they have been working towards as technology becomes possible and we only get to see a small part each time they release products and services. All their competition are blindly reacting to these releases by copying and rushing me too products to market. Their products a not part of any long term, coordinated plan like Apple's and we see them dropping like flies every month.
I think you've pretty well encapsulated what's going to go down. I agree, too, that MS is going to sit out the digital revolution until it's all but passed by.
One thing I would dispute is your concept of an all-in-one. I think there will be a place for a physical phone and a tablet and maybe even a non-portable computer. While they may be distinct form factors and individual units ion one hand, they will be cloud connected, making them a single data device.