JP Morgan: Apple television unlikely to arrive in 2012
Investment bank J.P. Morgan has poured cold water on speculation that Apple will release a connected television set later this year, while simultaneously offering its own speculation that the company may introduce an "iPay" mobile payment platform.
Analyst Mark Moskowitz said on Thursday in a note to investors obtained by AppleInsider that the firm's research "does not indicated any looming TV-related product launch." He also expressed belief that the economic conditions are not right for Apple to release a television this year.
According to the analyst, the TV industry is experiencing "strained" economics, despite the fact that several television makers offer "suitable" solutions.
"We are not sure that the Apple premium could prevail in the TV market, unless there is a radical change of the user interface, integration of the TV programming and data content, and use of gesture or voice control," he said.
Though Moskowitz expressed skepticism about an upcoming HDTV from Apple, he did note that the firm sees Apple as the company to "radically alter the TV landscape" if it's going to happen.
The analyst believes Apple may take a slower, more evolutionary approach to breaking into the home entertainment market. J.P. Morgan said it believes Apple "has the ability to deliver a differentiated home entertainment solution" independent of separate "game-changing content-related deals" that would need to be negotiated.
"Enhanced-content offerings could augment Apple?s TV solution but are not a necessity for Apple to be successful in the living room, in our view," he said.
Instead, Moskowitz put forth "tight integration of hardware and software, industrial design, and ease of use" as equal, if not more important, factors for the company's success in the living room. Those factors, rather than content, could be Apple's key to success because consumers aren't ready to leave behind "traditional cable offerings," the analyst wrote.
Though he is skeptical of both the "timing or reality" of an Apple television, Moskowitz did propose potential evolutionary outcomes that could result in a full-blown TV. He suggested that Apple could first expand its Apple TV into "more of a set top box module."
"We believe Apple can design a smarter set top box to manage all components behind the end user?s TV experience, as well as eliminate the oft-cumbersome user interface provided by the cable and satellite operators," Moskowitz wrote.
Given that Apple released a minor update to the Apple TV this spring with support for 1080p video playback, the analyst said such a device would not arrive until 2013 at the earliest. Potential software features added to the product could include universal remote capabilities through Siri or gestures, advanced set top box capabilities, DVR capability and gaming console options.
Moskowitz then speculated that a "full-fledged" TV could arrive in 2014, though he noted that Apple's preference for double-digit operating margins could pose a problem. "We think that Apple can differentiate a TV through the industrial design and picture quality," he wrote.
The analyst pointed to patent filings detailing Apple's efforts to apply in-plane switching technology to larger screens as evidence that the company could offer an improved picture quality over existing television models. Apple's scale and display investments could also enable it to provide "'Retina Display' quality in a large flat-screen format," according to Moskowitz. Finally, Apple's unparalleled industrial design techniques would give it another advantage in building a successful television.
J.P. Morgan's doubt about a 2012 Apple television launch stands in opposition to some analysts who expect such a device to arrive this year. Jefferies analyst Peter Misek said last month that he has "enough confidence" that Apple will release a television set at the end of this year.
iPay
After voicing skepticism about the long-rumored Apple television project, Moskowitz said he was "more optimistic" about Apple releasing a mobile payment platform. He dubbed the hypothetical service "iPay" and suggested it could make use of near field communication (NFC) technology in future iPhone or iPad devices. NFC chips have been rumored as an addition to the iPhone for years, but they have yet to materialize.
"Currently, we do no have any evidence of an ?iPay? platform in development, but it is our view that the company?s current ?Apple Store? app that enables consumers to check themselves out of an Apple Retail Store could be the stepping stone," he said.
Moskowitz was quick to point out that there would be "hurdles" in working with other financial institutions and the credit card company, but he added that "the prospects of a pay with your own device model are increasingly likely."
Rival Google announced and launched its own NFC e-wallet service last year.
Analyst Mark Moskowitz said on Thursday in a note to investors obtained by AppleInsider that the firm's research "does not indicated any looming TV-related product launch." He also expressed belief that the economic conditions are not right for Apple to release a television this year.
According to the analyst, the TV industry is experiencing "strained" economics, despite the fact that several television makers offer "suitable" solutions.
"We are not sure that the Apple premium could prevail in the TV market, unless there is a radical change of the user interface, integration of the TV programming and data content, and use of gesture or voice control," he said.
Though Moskowitz expressed skepticism about an upcoming HDTV from Apple, he did note that the firm sees Apple as the company to "radically alter the TV landscape" if it's going to happen.
The analyst believes Apple may take a slower, more evolutionary approach to breaking into the home entertainment market. J.P. Morgan said it believes Apple "has the ability to deliver a differentiated home entertainment solution" independent of separate "game-changing content-related deals" that would need to be negotiated.
"Enhanced-content offerings could augment Apple?s TV solution but are not a necessity for Apple to be successful in the living room, in our view," he said.
Instead, Moskowitz put forth "tight integration of hardware and software, industrial design, and ease of use" as equal, if not more important, factors for the company's success in the living room. Those factors, rather than content, could be Apple's key to success because consumers aren't ready to leave behind "traditional cable offerings," the analyst wrote.
Though he is skeptical of both the "timing or reality" of an Apple television, Moskowitz did propose potential evolutionary outcomes that could result in a full-blown TV. He suggested that Apple could first expand its Apple TV into "more of a set top box module."
"We believe Apple can design a smarter set top box to manage all components behind the end user?s TV experience, as well as eliminate the oft-cumbersome user interface provided by the cable and satellite operators," Moskowitz wrote.
Given that Apple released a minor update to the Apple TV this spring with support for 1080p video playback, the analyst said such a device would not arrive until 2013 at the earliest. Potential software features added to the product could include universal remote capabilities through Siri or gestures, advanced set top box capabilities, DVR capability and gaming console options.
Moskowitz then speculated that a "full-fledged" TV could arrive in 2014, though he noted that Apple's preference for double-digit operating margins could pose a problem. "We think that Apple can differentiate a TV through the industrial design and picture quality," he wrote.
The analyst pointed to patent filings detailing Apple's efforts to apply in-plane switching technology to larger screens as evidence that the company could offer an improved picture quality over existing television models. Apple's scale and display investments could also enable it to provide "'Retina Display' quality in a large flat-screen format," according to Moskowitz. Finally, Apple's unparalleled industrial design techniques would give it another advantage in building a successful television.
J.P. Morgan's doubt about a 2012 Apple television launch stands in opposition to some analysts who expect such a device to arrive this year. Jefferies analyst Peter Misek said last month that he has "enough confidence" that Apple will release a television set at the end of this year.
iPay
After voicing skepticism about the long-rumored Apple television project, Moskowitz said he was "more optimistic" about Apple releasing a mobile payment platform. He dubbed the hypothetical service "iPay" and suggested it could make use of near field communication (NFC) technology in future iPhone or iPad devices. NFC chips have been rumored as an addition to the iPhone for years, but they have yet to materialize.
"Currently, we do no have any evidence of an ?iPay? platform in development, but it is our view that the company?s current ?Apple Store? app that enables consumers to check themselves out of an Apple Retail Store could be the stepping stone," he said.
Moskowitz was quick to point out that there would be "hurdles" in working with other financial institutions and the credit card company, but he added that "the prospects of a pay with your own device model are increasingly likely."
Rival Google announced and launched its own NFC e-wallet service last year.
Comments
Mr. Moskowitz is try to take advantage of slow news week! Everyone, keep moving. There is is nothing to see here. Back to sleep!
TV is old hat. I would like to see Apple release an iFab and sell blueprints on iTunes e.g. http://cubify.com/ ;
These things could really take off under Apple's simplifying hand, but most of them only have Windows software.
Yesterday I was at a Samsung demo booth. They showed me their latest "Smart TV". It was a piece of crap. It didn't work.
UI was horrible. Voice recognition didn't work. Camera motion control didn't work. It would've been better for the company had they not released it.
So Apple, you just keep working on your living room thing and release it when it's ready.
You'll be last in the race, but hopefully game changing enough for people to get wowed. (Just like with the iPhone.)
Apple could make a great interface ready for summer release (as long as it's not voice and motion based.. then it'll take forever to be fool proof)
But to hook up content providers around the world will take them forever, as it has with movies on iTunes, and the current Apple TV.
Small detail: it is not JP Morgan that decides what Apple will produce. All JP Morgan can do is make uneducated guesses and create / downplay expectations (think APPL stock manipulation).
Quote:
JP Morgan: Apple television unlikely to arrive ever
Fixed.
Someone must be short AAPL.
First the run-up on stock price based on crazy, unfounded rumors that Apple would produce a television, then throw cold water on the silly rumors by saying that Apple isn't going to produce a TV.
Hmmm... Radical change, gesture or voice control. Was anyone expecting anything less?
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-28/sharp-investment-makes-sense-if-apple-tv-is-coming
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan
http://www.macworld.co.uk/ipad-iphone/news/?newsid=3355486&pagtype=allchandate
That was one of the sillier articles I've read - and that's saying a lot.
"We saw records that 14 of something were shipped to Apple so we conclude that it must be the next iPhone or an Apple branded TV".
Quite a leap of logic there.
The way things are going maybe a patent section too? Lol
Quote:
Originally Posted by lilgto64
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-28/sharp-investment-makes-sense-if-apple-tv-is-coming
Yeah, Apple certainly doesn't need LCD panels for their other products.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan
http://www.macworld.co.uk/ipad-iphone/news/?newsid=3355486&pagtype=allchandate
If I had to make a relatively accurate guess, I'd say these 'shipments' are actually testbed Oompa Loompas that Apple is bringing in to replace their workforce in the near future.
Hey!
I can analyse shit too!
This is awesome!
The guy is almost right on for some points and completly off the tracks for others.
I have notice lots of people are trying to bring down Apple stock since earnings. The market makers were able to buy back and close lots of may19 puts and turn a profit on the last drop but its going to be hard to get the 560-570 range. Its going to be interesting to see where they are going to pin the stock this week.
imo we need China mobile for the next leg up (640+). Typical PE compression after earnings range from 12 to 15, that gives us 500 to 612 consolidation. But its going to be hard to compress to 12 PE without any "real" bad news.
Investors information:
http://aapltrader99.home.comcast.net/~aapltrader99/Apple_Trading/Welcome.html
http://barefigur.es/
That site had the exact same whisper EPS number weeks in advance of earnings...
http://www.earningswhispers.com/stocks.asp?symbol=AAPL
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta
That was one of the sillier articles I've read - and that's saying a lot.
"We saw records that 14 of something were shipped to Apple so we conclude that it must be the next iPhone or an Apple branded TV".
Quite a leap of logic there.
Not any sillier than a picture of a home button or sim card tray and extrapolating what that means for the next gen iPhone.
http://x.nu/f9CB3
More characteristics, novel style,varieties,and good quality low price
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" He also expressed belief that the economic conditions are not right for Apple to release a television this year."
"We are not sure that the Apple premium could prevail in the TV market, unless there is a radical change of the user interface, integration of the TV programming . . ."
- Mark Moskowitz, May 2, 2012
Marky - try and follow me here, buddy. Apple, now the largest corporation in the world, released it's first iPhone in Jan 2007, on the eve of the worst depression in US history since the Great Depression. And I think all will agree, not only was it a "radical change of interface", it took a 20 year cell phone old industry and turned it upside down.
And then, during said worst recession since the Great Depression, 2008-2009, started it's ascent to where it is today, by releasing 5 more versions of the iPhone, year after year, each one out selling the previous one.
Do you see a pattern here, Marky?
Oh, and yeah, one more thing. In April 2010, in still extremely bad economic times, they released another little product called the iPad, and then 2011 & 2012, released 2 more versions, each also outselling the previous versions.
No, I'm pretty sure Apple just does what it does because they ARE that good. They don't wait for strong markets to release products. They create markets by creating great products.
What a knuckle-head. Even my 9 year old son could figure this one out.
And my 9 year old could also figure out that this a-hole is publishing this garbage as a means of negatively influencing AAPL's stock price, while the investor's at JPM are sitting there with their mouse pointers on the "short" button.
Are you not aware that Apple is in the works to carve out spaces for Apple Stores inside of Wal-Mart and Target stores? Do you think that is so they can sell iPhones and iPads there?
Obviously that is where they are going to put iTV's on display. The TV's are going to be more expensive, so they are anticipating that People are going to want to go see one and try it out before they buy it - just like they do now before buying a TV.