Led by Apple's iPad, tablets projected to surpass notebooks by 2016
Shipments of touchscreen tablets, led by Apple's market dominating iPad, will surpass traditional notebooks by 2016, according to a new forecast.
The prediction was issued by NPD DisplaySearch on Tuesday, which used the generic term "tablets" in its forecast but singled out Apple's iPad in an accompanying press release. Apple currently dominates the tablet market, and is expected to account for more than 60 percent of all tablets shipped in 2012, with an even higher share of actual sales to customers.
NPD offers no breakdown of just how much of the tablet market it expects the iPad will control in 2016. But the research company's "Quarterly Mobile PC Shipment and Forecast Report" expects that tablet shipments will grow from 121 million units in 2012 to 416 million by 2017.
In that same five-year span, the projection calls for notebook shipments to increase from 208 million to 393 million.
"Consumer preference for mobile computing devices is shifting from notebook to tablet PCs, particularly in mature markets,? said Richard Shim, senior analyst at NPD DisplaySearch. "While the lines between tablet and notebook PCs are blurring, we expect mature markets to be the primary regions for tablet PC adoption. New entrants are tending to launch their initial products in mature markets. Services and infrastructure needed to create compelling new usage models are often better established in mature markets."
Growth in tablet shipments is expected to be driven by "mature markets," where they are expected to reach 80 million units in 2012, and 254 million by 2017.
NPD believes that tablets will continue to evolve and become more powerful, turning them into a "compelling alternative to notebook PCs" for many customers, allowing shipments to exceed notebooks by 2016.
In a previous prediction issued in May, DisplaySearch forecast that Apple's share of the tablet market will dip to 50.9 percent by 2017. The research group sees the iPad taking just over half of 424.9 million units shipped five years from now.
The prediction was issued by NPD DisplaySearch on Tuesday, which used the generic term "tablets" in its forecast but singled out Apple's iPad in an accompanying press release. Apple currently dominates the tablet market, and is expected to account for more than 60 percent of all tablets shipped in 2012, with an even higher share of actual sales to customers.
NPD offers no breakdown of just how much of the tablet market it expects the iPad will control in 2016. But the research company's "Quarterly Mobile PC Shipment and Forecast Report" expects that tablet shipments will grow from 121 million units in 2012 to 416 million by 2017.
In that same five-year span, the projection calls for notebook shipments to increase from 208 million to 393 million.
"Consumer preference for mobile computing devices is shifting from notebook to tablet PCs, particularly in mature markets,? said Richard Shim, senior analyst at NPD DisplaySearch. "While the lines between tablet and notebook PCs are blurring, we expect mature markets to be the primary regions for tablet PC adoption. New entrants are tending to launch their initial products in mature markets. Services and infrastructure needed to create compelling new usage models are often better established in mature markets."
Growth in tablet shipments is expected to be driven by "mature markets," where they are expected to reach 80 million units in 2012, and 254 million by 2017.
NPD believes that tablets will continue to evolve and become more powerful, turning them into a "compelling alternative to notebook PCs" for many customers, allowing shipments to exceed notebooks by 2016.
In a previous prediction issued in May, DisplaySearch forecast that Apple's share of the tablet market will dip to 50.9 percent by 2017. The research group sees the iPad taking just over half of 424.9 million units shipped five years from now.
Comments
No wonder Microsoft is spooked!
i would think that notebook sales would decrease as iPad sales increase. not 1 to 1 obviously, but i know several people who decided to buy an iPad rather than a notebook. i myself have postponed my MacBook Air purchase because of my increased iPad use.
Quote:
Originally Posted by OllieWallieWhiskers
i would think that notebook sales would decrease as iPad sales increase. not 1 to 1 obviously, but i know several people who decided to buy an iPad rather than a notebook. i myself have postponed my MacBook Air purchase because of my increased iPad use.
I too have postponed an MBA purchase because of the iPad.
I've postponed buying an iPad due to buying a MBA...
I expect the iPad to destroy the low end notebook market, ie all of those $300 notebooks by HP/Dell, not to mention the netbooks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
lol, netbooks.
Definitely. And some notebooks as well.
There will be folks that need a full notebook but they are likely way outnumbered by those that don't and don't want the clutter of a big tower or all in one. So for them a tablet is perfect. I'm talking the lightweight email, web surfing etc types like my parents and grandparents. Also the younger kids don't likely need full computers in the grades before major papers (say K-5) so they will have tablets as schools move away from paper books and static tools.
And of course there will be folks like myself with the desktop and tablet combo. Or my brother that has a shared desktop for the 6 folks in the family but they all also have an iPad, iPhone or iPod touch other than the baby (He's only 6 months). There are 3 iPads alone in that bunch.
I don't think we'll ever get to a day when there will be no computers in houses although their uses will be different than today. They might be more house server than actually directly used for many people. Us work at home creatives might be the last hold outs on 'real' computer use in the home. But I think the iPad and the like are beginning the era of the wired home and perhaps the days of the Jetsons and such are closer than we imagine.
I think that is why MS is spooked, as Suddenly Newton put it, and why they are jumping in with the Surface they way they ditched partners and decided to jump in with the Zune. Except with the Surface the situation is more dire because eating away at their Windows base could be catastrophic. Add in the double whammy of iPad users now wanting a Mac when do finally buy a new PC and it gets even worse for them.
By 2016, I feel like we are going to see a lot more tablets similar to the Asus Transformer series, but with more full featured operating systems. If Apple ever released an 11" MacBook air where the screen could detach and be used as an iPad, I would buy it in a heartbeat. I don't think that'll happen immediately, but in the next few years I see it as a definite possibility.
No one is making any profits in the tablet space other than Apple. When does this change? Does it change?
Google just torpedoed the entire Android table market by releasing a $199 product with zero profit margin. How can any other manufacturer realistically bring something to market and hope to make any money? How can Asus continue to re-invest in the category if they are nothing more than Google's bitch? Amazon is off in left field running a balkanized version of Android with no upgrade path and very bad hardware. Google is going to crush Amazon's dreams
Google Nexus is one stone that will kill two birds: 1) A healthy Android tablet market, and 2) Amazon. It is going to cement a $0 profit tablet world beyond iPad. Thank you Google
My 2017 iPad Prediction: 60% unit share, 100% profit share, 90% web/real-use share. 240MM units or higher gives AAPL real chance for a run to $2,000
So basically, you are stating the obvious fact that Apple's iPad will surpass notebook sales. Wait....didn't that already happen, last year?
Hah. Like anyone can predict the tech industry 4 years out, base on current trends.
Nothing to see here, folks. Move along.
The Surface is a doomed product from the start. It's a rehash of what's been available for over a decade now and failed to gain traction. Microsoft's inability to ditch Windows and embrace a wholly new platform will ultimately be their downfall.
Android has proven to be seen by consumers as nothing more than a phone OS or little more than an embedded platform OS; Kindle, Nook, etc. Google entering this space will ultimately fail as they don't have the mind share these other companies have except among technogeeks.
Like portable media players, tablets aren't a necessity, but a "nicety." As such the iPad will follow the iPod's path and will remain on top. There will be other devices dumped on the market that will bring the iPad's share down, but in reality, the iPad will be the undisputed market leader when it comes to actual use; most of these usage statistics show iPad above 90% even though it only has 60% market share.
I do see Apple at some point releasing a smaller iPad (or larger iPod, but I'm willing to bet they try and capitalize on the iPad brand name) and market it as more of a content consumption device and market the original iPad as a "pro" version. This would lock up the entire market as they eventually did with the iPod; low: iPod touch, mid: iPad mini, high: iPad.
A lot of people here are missing the point (intentionally or otherwise) that Windows 8 doesn't just represent "Windows RT", the tablet-only version, but also the full version of Windows on a Tablet.
This includes the ability to dock a tablet to a connected keyboard, mouse and display setup and use it like a standard computer for a complete experience.
Windows 8 RT is limited to tablet applications (Metro), but Windows 8 Pro on a tablet is not--and that's the real point.
Oh, we all get it, but you fail to realize that MS and their vendors have been trying to push such a tablet for decades and it has yet to take off. The last big push was the HP Slate. Converging technologies is more about what not to include and trying to make a product that isn't ideal for any task so it can technically be used for every task is recipe for failure in the tech world. It's the Homer car all over again except this time around it's about trying to make the HW be everything to everyone but to include two UIs on the same device. And at MacBook Air prices, too boot.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lightknight
I've postponed buying an iPad due to buying a MBA...
I've postponed buying an iPad and a MBA while waiting to buy a Giant iPod Touch...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shidell
This includes the ability to dock a tablet to a connected keyboard, mouse and display setup and use it like a standard computer for a complete experience.
Except this is NOT what consumers are looking for. The failure of this "frankentablet" model has already been demonstrated.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shidell
A lot of people here are missing the point (intentionally or otherwise) that Windows 8 doesn't just represent "Windows RT", the tablet-only version, but also the full version of Windows on a Tablet.
This includes the ability to dock a tablet to a connected keyboard, mouse and display setup and use it like a standard computer for a complete experience.
Windows 8 RT is limited to tablet applications (Metro), but Windows 8 Pro on a tablet is not--and that's the real point.
I think that most people, here, understand the difference between the Surface RT (Metro only) and the Surface Pro (Windows 8).
What most people also realize is that there have been tablets in this space (running full Windows) for over 10 years -- and none have been successful, except for dedicated speciality use (hospitals, etc.).
General Windows applications are not designed to run without a kb and a mouse -- and fail on a touch interface (stylus or no).
Today, those developing speciality apps, are doing them for the iPad.
Perhaps I'm too much of an optimist but I expect that one day these posters will realize that the one-device-fits-all, the bizarre combination of devices that break apart, like the Asus PadFone, and the large after market PC towers by DiYers with fancy stickers and neon lights on their chassis are not the future of computing.
Not to be pedantic but I think MS has made their entire product line even more confusing by calling them both Surface. No designation of RT and Pro between the models. Only the Windows OS sitting on top get that designation: Surface with Windows RT and Surface with Windows 8 Pro.
Correction: The ARM-based Surface just has Windows RT. There is no number 8 in it.