Apple on pace to sell 4.8M Macs in holiday quarter, down 7% year over year
Domestic sales figures from the first month of Apple's holiday quarter have signaled the company is on track to sell 4.8 million Macs in the three-month period, representing a decrease from last year.
U.S. Mac sales in October were down 16 percent year over year, according to the latest data from NPD Group. But Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray noted that Mac sales have exceeded NPD figures by an average of 12 percentage points in the last three quarters, which suggests, overall Mac sales were down just 4 percent year over year.
Munster's estimates call for Mac sales to be down 7 percent year over year in the December quarter, which would be 4.8 million total units.
The NPD figures suggest Mac sales were down 40 percent when compared to September. That's a normal seasonal trend as back-to-school sales end, Munster said.
"The focus of the December quarter will likely be on iPhone 5 sales, and we note our supply checks indicate that iPhone 5 supply has improved significantly in the last three weeks," he said.
This quarter will include sales of the new 13-inch MacBook Pro with Retina display, as well as new Mac minis with Ivy Bridge processors, and a redesigned iMac that is scheduled to arrive later this month. But Apple's Mac sales are dominated by portable machines, and the bulk of the company's MacBook lineup was refreshed earlier this year, while the latest updates feature more desktop machines.
A year ago, Apple set a new record by selling 5.2 million Macs in the December 2011 quarter. That represented a 26 percent increase from the same period in 2010.
Last year, Munster's interpretation of NPD's October sales data proved accurate in projecting Mac sales for the quarter. Munster said the sales figures showed Apple on pace to sell between 5.1 million and 5.3 million Macs in the quarter, and actual holiday Mac sales fell squarely in the middle of that range.
U.S. Mac sales in October were down 16 percent year over year, according to the latest data from NPD Group. But Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray noted that Mac sales have exceeded NPD figures by an average of 12 percentage points in the last three quarters, which suggests, overall Mac sales were down just 4 percent year over year.
Munster's estimates call for Mac sales to be down 7 percent year over year in the December quarter, which would be 4.8 million total units.
The NPD figures suggest Mac sales were down 40 percent when compared to September. That's a normal seasonal trend as back-to-school sales end, Munster said.
"The focus of the December quarter will likely be on iPhone 5 sales, and we note our supply checks indicate that iPhone 5 supply has improved significantly in the last three weeks," he said.
This quarter will include sales of the new 13-inch MacBook Pro with Retina display, as well as new Mac minis with Ivy Bridge processors, and a redesigned iMac that is scheduled to arrive later this month. But Apple's Mac sales are dominated by portable machines, and the bulk of the company's MacBook lineup was refreshed earlier this year, while the latest updates feature more desktop machines.
A year ago, Apple set a new record by selling 5.2 million Macs in the December 2011 quarter. That represented a 26 percent increase from the same period in 2010.
Last year, Munster's interpretation of NPD's October sales data proved accurate in projecting Mac sales for the quarter. Munster said the sales figures showed Apple on pace to sell between 5.1 million and 5.3 million Macs in the quarter, and actual holiday Mac sales fell squarely in the middle of that range.
Comments
Given a major refresh of the Mac product line-up, why are sales expected to be down?!
I thought that was the excuse for last quarter?
They need to reduce prices and produce models for the general public at all price points so that their market share can be increased.
To what degree are preferred purchases of an iPad (rather than a PC or Mac) a factor here?
And to what degree will this be influenced by actual product availability?
Quote:
Originally Posted by peter236
They need to reduce prices and produce models for the general public at all price points
Can't. If Apple wants to maintain quality, margins, and continue to dominate in PC consumer satisfaction (for many years now), they need to forego market share in favour of simply being the best, but with barriers to consumer entry that are naturally occurring with the necessary increase in price.
I really don't think Apple minds that situation.
Where the Mac can't go in retail, however, the iPad will.
It's a win-win for Apple.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
Given a major refresh of the Mac product line-up, why are sales expected to be down?!
I thought that was the excuse for last quarter?
As somebody else said, the issue is timing. September is the big back to school season. Further, people are likely spending money on gifts for others because of the holidays. These purchases will be things like iPods, iPhones, and iPads.
People associate Apple with quality, not cheap crap.
Quote:
Originally Posted by peter236
They need to reduce prices and produce models for the general public at all price points so that their market share can be increased.
No they don't. They've been increasing market share for a few years now. I believe they are the only PC company to increase sales.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
Given a major refresh of the Mac product line-up, why are sales expected to be down?!
I thought that was the excuse for last quarter?
because stock manipulation is good for business (when you can lower the price to something you want to pay).
Neither the 13" rMBP nor the new iMac will have been available for a full quarter by Dec 31. That can explain a lot.
more interesting will be the next quarter, when Windows 8 refugees will start looking at Macs instead.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alfiejr
more interesting will be the next quarter, when Windows 8 refugees will start looking at Macs instead.
Good point. It could be an absolute blowout of a quarter.
Quote:
Originally Posted by shuntsu
It's all tablets this year - macs (and PCs) are just not gonna be the big sellers they once were.
What are you talking about? Apple never sold as many macs. in 2007 they sold 5 million (the whole year). Ignorant.
Quote:
Originally Posted by peter236
They need to reduce prices and produce models for the general public at all price points so that their market share can be increased.
We have been hearing this for years. Every mac user and his uncle has been advising Apple on how to break into the enterprise and increase their sales by doing what you suggest in spite of Apple repeatedly stating that they are not concerned with the numbers as long as they are building the best devices with the best user experiences they possibly can. Apple is not just saying that because they are selling less computers than Dell or HP. They say it because that is what they do. Steve Jobs once said words to the effect that Apple could easily make a low end machine in order to sell more units. He finished by saying that if that's what they had to do in order to survive he'd rather pack it in. What would be the point?
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBell
As somebody else said, the issue is timing. September is the big back to school season. Further, people are likely spending money on gifts for others because of the holidays. These purchases will be things like iPods, iPhones, and iPads.
But this is a year over year statistic. Was school not starting in September last year as well? Were people not buying gifts for the holidays last year either?
These type of changes might make a difference between quarterly reports, but a year over year statistic should not be impacted by seasonal variances.
Quote:
Originally Posted by e_veritas
But this is a year over year statistic. Was school not starting in September last year as well? Were people not buying gifts for the holidays last year either?
These type of changes might make a difference between quarterly reports, but a year over year statistic should not be impacted by seasonal variances.
The only change being the iPad mini.
I want to see the PC numbers. They should be down 16-20% if Apple is down 7%. If not then Tim has some 'splainin' to do.
Maybe he's just trying to get his legs.