AT&T's record holiday quarter signals sales of 8M iPhones
The 2012 holiday season was a record setting span for AT&T with 10 million total smartphones sold ? at least 8 million of which are expected to be Apple iPhones.
AT&T's 10 million smartphones sold in the fourth quarter of calendar 2012 bested its previous record of 9.4 million units set in the 2011 holiday season. In previous quarters, the lion's share of smartphones sold at AT&T were iPhones, which has led Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray to forecast sales of 8.1 million iPhones through AT&T.
The carrier said on Tuesday that it sold a record number of iPhones in the holiday quarter. AT&T's previous record came in the 2011 holiday quarter, in which it sold 7.6 million iPhones.
Munster views AT&T's announcement as in line with his expectations. He has forecast total sales of 45 million iPhones in Apple's December quarter.
He also offered his take on the news that Samsung is expected to report sales of 63 million smartphones in the fourth quarter, which would represent 75 percent year-over-year growth. Munster expects 35 percent year-over-year growth for the smartphone industry, and a 21 percent increase in iPhone sales.
"We believe the numbers from Samsung continue to point to our belief that Apple needs to accelerate its product release schedule and introduce a lower priced device," Munster wrote in a note to investors on Tuesday.
Finally, he also offered his take on Apple's latest update on the App Store and its milestone of 40 billion downloads. Apple also noted that it has over 500 million active iTunes accounts, which is up from the 435 million the company reported at the iPhone 5 launch in September.
"We believe this points to 50 million new iTunes accounts in December, but note that not all new accounts would be associated with a new iOS device (could be a new Windows user)," Munster wrote.
AT&T's 10 million smartphones sold in the fourth quarter of calendar 2012 bested its previous record of 9.4 million units set in the 2011 holiday season. In previous quarters, the lion's share of smartphones sold at AT&T were iPhones, which has led Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray to forecast sales of 8.1 million iPhones through AT&T.
The carrier said on Tuesday that it sold a record number of iPhones in the holiday quarter. AT&T's previous record came in the 2011 holiday quarter, in which it sold 7.6 million iPhones.
Munster views AT&T's announcement as in line with his expectations. He has forecast total sales of 45 million iPhones in Apple's December quarter.
He also offered his take on the news that Samsung is expected to report sales of 63 million smartphones in the fourth quarter, which would represent 75 percent year-over-year growth. Munster expects 35 percent year-over-year growth for the smartphone industry, and a 21 percent increase in iPhone sales.
"We believe the numbers from Samsung continue to point to our belief that Apple needs to accelerate its product release schedule and introduce a lower priced device," Munster wrote in a note to investors on Tuesday.
Finally, he also offered his take on Apple's latest update on the App Store and its milestone of 40 billion downloads. Apple also noted that it has over 500 million active iTunes accounts, which is up from the 435 million the company reported at the iPhone 5 launch in September.
"We believe this points to 50 million new iTunes accounts in December, but note that not all new accounts would be associated with a new iOS device (could be a new Windows user)," Munster wrote.
Comments
Can somebody explain that last sentence to me? It sounds like he's saying somebody using Windows for the first time might open a new iTunes account without actually getting a new iOS device. So, for example, they have an iOS device and iTunes account already and switch from Mac to Windows so they need a new account? Or they don't have an iOS device or iTunes account and switch to Windows, so they download iTunes and set up an account just to buy music to play on their computer or something? Neither seems like it could account for very many new accounts, but maybe I'm missing something.
And by the way, Android is WINNING!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Retrogusto
Can somebody explain that last sentence to me?
He's saying that some of those new accounts could be from Windows users who do not own an iOS device, but still may want to buy content from iTunes.
He's basically pointing out that the 65 million new account activations in the last quarter may not directly translate into expanded iOS user base. Although, it wouldn't be illogical to assume that a vast majority are from people new to iOS; 50 iPhones, 25 million iPads, 7 million iPod touches, that's 80+ million iOS devices sold in the quarter.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rob53
Why does Apple have to compete for the low-end smartphone market? Samsung sells a lot of cheap phones, so what? The race isn't for the most, it's for the best and Apple knows that. It's the crazy analysts who think all smartphones are equal. They aren't.
Agreed. It boggles the mind that these analysts are supposed "experts" on Apple when they obviously have no idea what Apple's M.O. is and has always been. They've never had to go for the low-end of the market.
Having said that, I can see Apple producing a less expensive "feature" phone where apps are limited to what is pre-installed. Much in the same way Apple TV and the iPod nano are. In fact, I think the latest iPod nano is a reference design for such an iPhone. Apple could go for the high end of the low-end market; $199 with no contract. It would have limited features, but be very similar to other iOS devices, which could help push these new users up to a regular iOS device.
Unfortunately Android is winning the Market Share race. The biggest difference between now and the PC wars is that the Apple EcoSystem still makes more money for developers than the Android EcoSystem. They also need to start expanding their target market like then did with the iPod Mini / Shuffle / Nano. If they don't start winning back marketshare they could be in trouble in a couple of years. Making 5 times the amount of dollars per market share does not help you if you have only 1/10 the market of your competitor. While Apple is far from DOOMED they can not continue to view Android as an inferior copy that will not catch on. Depending on who you ask Jelly Bean is as good / better than IOS and with 50-75% of the market share I fell safe saying that it has caught on and is here to stay.
Before anyone calls me a Fandroid, I am far from one. But I do fear that the IOS platform will become like the Classic MacOS platform of the 90s if Apple does not get their act in gear. (Don't get me started on my opinion on what is happening with Mac Hardware. The rMBP were the first Macs is a long time that I have absolutely no interest in.)
Quote:
Originally Posted by rob53
Why does Apple have to compete for the low-end smartphone market? Samsung sells a lot of cheap phones, so what? The race isn't for the most, it's for the best and Apple knows that. It's the crazy analysts who think all smartphones are equal. They aren't.
Because most analysis only know what they learned at Business School which Market share is the only thing that counts even if you are selling most of your products at a lose. So 80% market share of a very large market at Sub 30% Margins is good or 20% market share at +60% margins is good. Anything in between is bad. In the case of Samsung, they loose money on some product which drags down their margins as a whole but since they do not report out the specifics it had to know which products they are giving away to drive up market share. In the case of Apple they are earning +40% margins so they are stuck in the hate zone with Wall Street even though they are putting more money in the bank than anyone other company out there. What Analysis fail to factor in is the $ each iOS device holder spends on the extras in iTunes store, of you add those numbers to each iOS device the margins per active device would be in the 60% to 80% range. But the market treats iTune and App Stores as a separate business competing with Amazon and the such who too gives away products to drive market share.
"...which has led Gene Munster"
Stopped reading.
Jelly bean is no where near 50% of Android let alone OS market share.
Apple still has the vast majority of profit from mobile devices with its "falling" market share.
The difference between now and the Mac-PC era is that Apple wasn't selling many macs nor making much money.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mjtomlin
Agreed. It boggles the mind that these analysts are supposed "experts" on Apple when they obviously have no idea what Apple's M.O. is and has always been. They've never had to go for the low-end of the market.
They always seem to want to push Apple into the conventional wisdom of the day. When I bought my Apple II+ in 1982 it was quite a bit more expensive than other personal computers on the market, especially the TRS-80. I knew I was buying into something special, something better. For almost 37 years now the critics have been trying to force Apple into a conventional mold, to do business like they want them to, the "good enough" business model.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AJMonline
Unfortunately Android is winning the Market Share race. The biggest difference between now and the PC wars is that the Apple EcoSystem still makes more money for developers than the Android EcoSystem. Apple needs to start innovating again (with polished products not stuff that should still be in the lab). They also need to start expanding their target market like then did with the iPod Mini / Shuffle / Nano. If they don't start winning back marketshare they could be in trouble in a couple of years. Making 5 times the amount of dollars per market share does not help you if you have only 1/10 the market of your competitor. While Apple is far from DOOMED they can not continue to view Android as an inferior copy that will not catch on. Depending on who you ask Jelly Bean is as good / better than IOS and with 50-75% of the market share I fell safe saying that it has caught on and is here to stay.
Before anyone calls me a Fandroid, I am far from one. But I do fear that the IOS platform will become like the Classic MacOS platform of the 90s if Apple does not get their act in gear. (Don't get me started on my opinion on what is happening with Mac Hardware. The rMBP were the first Macs is a long time that I have absolutely no interest in.)
However, the Mac is outperforming the rest of the PC market. Apple dominates in terms of profits. Also developers still prioritize iOS since that's where they may their money. As for the rMPB, I have a 13" (it replaced a series of MacBook Airs) and I like it a lot.
Congratulations to the Apple shorts!
It seems like whenever there is some positive news, AAPL goes down.
Hopefully there will be some terrible news coming out soon about Apple.
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit
"...which has led Gene Munster"
Stopped reading.
which should lead to new shorthand in these forums:
gm;dr
ala tl;dr
Quote:
Originally Posted by rob53
Why does Apple have to compete for the low-end smartphone market? Samsung sells a lot of cheap phones, so what? The race isn't for the most, it's for the best and Apple knows that. It's the crazy analysts who think all smartphones are equal. They aren't.
You have to do something when the vast majority of the world cannot afford your phone. I don't think they mean "low-end". They mean "reasonably affordable".
What's the point of the best if you end up with only 1% of the world market in the end? You can't always have "best."
BTW, the iPhone 5 could have been better and far more expensive. Where do you draw the line?
As it stands, I hate walking around with a phone that costs $799 to replace. That's a lot of money.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark
Jelly bean is no where near 50% of Android let alone OS market share.
Apple still has the vast majority of profit from mobile devices with its "falling" market share.
The difference between now and the Mac-PC era is that Apple wasn't selling many macs nor making much money.
I agree with all three points are true today. As I said Apple is still far from DOOMED, but at what point does the difference in marketshare become so large that the larger profit per market share no longer matters. For the longest time the G3/G4 processors were 2-3 x as fast as the Intel Processors at the same speed. That did not matter anymore when the G4 was at 600mhz and the Pentium was at 3000mhz.
Failure to upgrade remains one of the biggest shortcomings of the Android Ecosystem, but if Google figures out how to fix that it could increase the profitability of Android, which causes additional threats to the IOS Ecosystem. Again not something I see in 2013 or even 2014/15 but something that is possible if Apple does not start innovating again. I just think there are some early signs of trouble that Apple needs to address, because Google/Android is not standing still.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KPOM
However, the Mac is outperforming the rest of the PC market. Apple dominates in terms of profits. Also developers still prioritize iOS since that's where they may their money. As for the rMPB, I have a 13" (it replaced a series of MacBook Airs) and I like it a lot.
Again Apple is far from DOOMED today, but there are some decisions that concern me. Unlike the 90s they are still in a good position so they can make minor changes instead of the Bet the Company risks they had to make to survive.
My issue with the rMBP is the Non-Upgradeability especially given the price premium. I concede that it is a gorgeous machine. But as a pro machine, I will gladly give up the .2 inches of height to be able to add ram / bigger hard-drive in 2 years. Apple for a while understood the importance of being able to upgrade at least the RAM (Just look at how easy it is to upgrade the RAM in a Mac Mini and the current "Classic" MBP is not that difficult for both RAM and HD). The recent iMac / rMBP upgrades seem to be walking backwards. Just look at the Mid-2011 Macbook Air on the front page MacMall Ad. It is stuck at 2GB and only meets the minimum Memory requirements for Mountain Lion. 10.9 will probably still work on it, but will 10.10? I expect a $500 windows machine to only be usable for 3-4 years, but I expect more from a $1000+ Mac (or in the case of the rMBP $1700+). Macs used to hold their value, but a 30% price drop on a 18 month old Mac Model is an indicator that all is not well is Apple Land. Again far from DOOMED, but something that needs to be addressed.