Google's Android has flatlined in the U.S. as Apple's iPhone steals all growth

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
Smartphone sales at AT&T and Verizon Wireless over the past two years show that Android isn't growing in the U.S. and that all new growth is coming from Apple's iPhone.


Source: ben-evans.com


A report by Benedict Evans highlights the clearly evident trends among American iPhone carriers (above).

Android is a commodity sale

Evans also drew attention to the cyclical nature of iPhone sales, which peaked at both AT&T and Verizon after the launch of the iPhone 4S in 2011 and the iPhone 5 last fall. Android phones aren't doing that, however.

Instead, as Evans noted, "there's near-zero seasonality in Android phone sales. People decide they want a phone and go out and buy whatever's in the shop at the time that looks good. Launches of 'hero' Android phones appear to have no impact at all - they may take share from other Androids, but not from iPhone and they don't increase overall sales."

There's not even an apparent correlation between iPhone peaks and Android sales; "It looks like a new iPhone launch doesn't tempt in Android buyers at all," Evans stated.

Android buyers are upgrading to iPhones

At the same time, Evans notes that there is real churn among Android buyers, many of whom are upgrading from basic feature phones. There's also no shortage of buyer intention surveys that indicate that first time Android users plan to upgrade to iPhones in the future, indicating that Google's platform is functioning like training wheels for the iPhone.

In an earlier post, Evans calculated that "a little over 90% of the current Android base got its first Android in the last 2 years, and 68% of the iPhone base its first iPhone."

He added, "It'll be interesting to see what their second purchase is."

That's why Verizon upgraded to iPhone in 2010

Google's platform was met with unbridled enthusiasm, particularly once Verizon Wireless abandoned BlackBerry and threw its support behind Android at the end of 2009 with its Droid ad campaign.

Verizon shifted its marketing efforts from BlackBerry to focus on Android because RIM was unable to deliver a phone that could compete against the iPhone. The 2008 holiday season's BlackBerry Storm had been a particularly bad launch for the carrier.

Android wasn't keeping up with iPhone sales


Before 2010 was out, it was clear that Android was not doing for Verizon what the iPhone had done for AT&T. Verizon subsequently agreed to begin selling a new CDMA iPhone 4 in early 2011, and since then, its smartphone growth has, like AT&T, come from strong iPhone sales.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 151
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,388member


    lol, stock price.

  • Reply 2 of 151
    I'm sorry, but is the author of this article blind and unable to read his own charts? Looking at the VZW graph, it's clear that iPhone sales peaked in 2012 at 6 million and have been on a decline to 4 million in the most recent quarter. If you look at the most recent quarter, iPhone sales have slumped to almost the same point as Android - the graphs are almost on top of each other. Latest quarterly iPhone numbers are not shown from AT&T.

    This is a worthless and shoddy piece of "journalism" by any metric. Conclusions are drawn based on incomplete data, and the where complete data is available (Verizon) clearly shows Android and iPhone being neck-and-neck and completely disproving the headline and point of this piece.

    Hey AppleInsider, stick to reporting rumors and stop trying to write your own articles. You are clearly out of your element.
  • Reply 3 of 151


    Another great? article by Deadhead

  • Reply 4 of 151


    But, but openness, or freedom or something.

  • Reply 5 of 151
    captain jcaptain j Posts: 313member
    Another portent of Apple's doom. :rolleyes:
  • Reply 6 of 151
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    I'm sorry, but is the author of this article blind and unable to read his own charts? Looking at the VZW graph, it's clear that iPhone sales peaked in 2012 at 6 million and have been on a decline to 4 million in the most recent quarter. If you look at the most recent quarter, iPhone sales have slumped to almost the same point as Android - the graphs are almost on top of each other. Latest quarterly iPhone numbers are not shown from AT&T.

    This is a worthless and shoddy piece of "journalism" by any metric. Conclusions are drawn based on incomplete data, and the where complete data is available (Verizon) clearly shows Android and iPhone being neck-and-neck and completely disproving the headline and point of this piece.

    Hey AppleInsider, stick to reporting rumors and stop trying to write your own articles. You are clearly out of your element.

    The chart clearly shows Apple's YoY considerably higher. It's foolish to look at the quarter just after a holiday and compare it to a holiday. You either don't understand how to read the chart or you're deliberately being obtuse. Which one is it or do you want to still contend that Android isn't flat and that iOS isn't higher than Android according to the graph for a given carrier?
  • Reply 7 of 151
    sflocalsflocal Posts: 6,092member
    In my experience over the years, folks that bought Android phones as their first smartphone immediately become disenchanted by them for numerous reasons from battery life, cheap quality, complexity, instabilities, pick one...

    When they see my iPhone and see how polished it is both in terms of physical build-quality and the simplicity/smoothness of iOS they are sold. Most have abandoned Android.

    Android is so overrated. It seems to cater to several demographics:
    - 1st-time buyers looking for a cheap, smartphone with price being their only consideration.
    - Individuals that want an open, infinitely-customizable smartphone and have way too much time on their hands. They will customize their smartphone so much, no one else will be able to figure out how to make a phone call on it.
    - iHaters that want nothing to do with Apple simply because of a false-belief that Apple is more "evil" than the numerous Android handset makers like Samsung whose CEO is a convicted criminal, and Google that has cleverly masqueraded their "open and free" OS as a way to covertly gather as much information on you, the product, and sell "you" to the highest bidder.
  • Reply 8 of 151
    sflocalsflocal Posts: 6,092member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post





    The chart clearly shows Apple's YoY considerably higher. It's foolish to look at the quarter just after a holiday and compare it to a holiday. You either don't understand how to read the chart or you're deliberately being obtuse. Which one is it or do you want to still contend that Android isn't flat and that iOS isn't higher than Android according to the graph for a given carrier?






    Don't expect him to answer.  Your observation of the faults in his rant pretty much says it all.

  • Reply 9 of 151
    macrulezmacrulez Posts: 2,455member


    deleted

  • Reply 10 of 151
    Azreospecialist.....I don't think you read the article fully. The article is pretty clear and concise, and backs up the main idea with charts.

    The chart you're referring to shows the seasonality of sales that come with each new iPhone launch, explained by the buying behavior of iPhone buyers vs. android buyers.

    Most iPhone buyers wait until the new model is out, and then buy en masse. Most android buyers look at their phone as a commodity, and buy whenever they feel like. Hence the peaks and valleys.

    The chart shows clearly that even during the "valley" of iPhone sales, that they are still outselling android.

    Your comment is a worthless and shoddy piece of "commenting" by any metric. Conclusions are drawn based on incomplete understanding of the article.
  • Reply 11 of 151
    jfc1138jfc1138 Posts: 3,090member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by AZREOSpecialist View Post



    I'm sorry, but is the author of this article blind and unable to read his own charts? Looking at the VZW graph, it's clear that iPhone sales peaked in 2012 at 6 million and have been on a decline to 4 million in the most recent quarter. If you look at the most recent quarter, iPhone sales have slumped to almost the same point as Android - the graphs are almost on top of each other. Latest quarterly iPhone numbers are not shown from AT&T.

    ........


    You miss that very first sentence?


    "Evans also drew attention to the cyclical nature of iPhone sales, which peaked at both AT&T and Verizon after the launch of the iPhone 4S in 2011 and the iPhone 5 last fall."


     


    Those peaks are the cyclical nature of iPhone sales that was being noted. Holdiay quarter versus the one following is the usual behavior for Apple, they are a very hot holiday item.

  • Reply 12 of 151
    apple ][apple ][ Posts: 9,233member


    I still don't get why there isn't a thumbs down feature here. It is so unrealistic and not very natural to not have a thumbs down feature.


     


    And there is a definitely a post in this thread that I would give a thumbs down to, if such an option existed.

  • Reply 13 of 151
    I'd like to see regional charts throughout the major markets in the world. More telling than just the US market.
  • Reply 14 of 151
    Dan_DilgerDan_Dilger Posts: 1,583member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by MacRulez View Post


    Did I miss the link to the blogger's source data?


     


    Elsewhere on Evans' site:


     


    http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2013/4/16/a-note-on-install-bases



     


    That's a lot of training wheels

  • Reply 15 of 151
    steven n.steven n. Posts: 1,229member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by AZREOSpecialist View Post



    I'm sorry, but is the author of this article blind and unable to read his own charts? Looking at the VZW graph, it's clear that iPhone sales peaked in 2012 at 6 million and have been on a decline to 4 million in the most recent quarter. If you look at the most recent quarter, iPhone sales have slumped to almost the same point as Android - the graphs are almost on top of each other. Latest quarterly iPhone numbers are not shown from AT&T.



    This is a worthless and shoddy piece of "journalism" by any metric. Conclusions are drawn based on incomplete data, and the where complete data is available (Verizon) clearly shows Android and iPhone being neck-and-neck and completely disproving the headline and point of this piece.



    Hey AppleInsider, stick to reporting rumors and stop trying to write your own articles. You are clearly out of your element.


    I hate to say this but you really have no clue. You could easily have said, iPhone sales peaked in Dec 2011 and then slumped in the following quarter before again peaking in Dec 2012 quarter. On AT&T there is no point since Mar 2011 all other smartphones (Android, WM, WP, BB) have outsold just the iPhone. On Verizon, the trend for all other smartphones is flat since Mar 2011 and climbing steadily with a very season bump for the Dec quarter.  The most recent quarter showed the iPhone activating 25% MORE units than the Y ago quarter. Only a blind fool would call this "slumping".

  • Reply 16 of 151


    What's shocking to me is how there's no "bump" with an Android new product intro -- such as the SG3 -- in either ATT or VZW's graphs. Compare that to the massive spike when a new iPhone is introduced! Shocking, because one would not get that impression reading the tech news.


     


    It's no wonder that these weasels don't put out actual shipment volumes or sales numbers.


     


    Btw, where are all those gazillions of Android activations every day (that Rubin used to boast about) in these numbers?!image

  • Reply 17 of 151

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by MacRulez View Post


    Did I miss the link to the blogger's source data?


     


    Elsewhere on Evans' site:


     


    Quote:


    On average, mobile phones are replaced every 24 months. So trailing 24m sales are a pretty good proxy for the install base. On that basis, at the end of 2012 the Android install base was about 675m, and the iPhone base was about 230m.



    http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2013/4/16/a-note-on-install-bases



    Yeah, all those cheap-o, low-margin Android junk sold in India and China. Who cares. Those will blown away with China Mobile and Apple's India push. A substantial portion of the extra hundreds of millions is toast.


     


    As an aisde, note how Evans also points out (in the first para of his blog, no less): "Apple discloses these numbers so you can just work them out".


     


    You Androiders just make up yours.

  • Reply 18 of 151
    apple ][apple ][ Posts: 9,233member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    Btw, where are all those gazillions of Android activations every day (that Rubin used to boast about) in these numbers?!image



     


    Because Android isn't doing all that great in most civilized countries, like the US.


     


    Android does well in countries where people can barely afford to feed their children.

  • Reply 19 of 151
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    What's shocking to me is how there's no "bump" with an Android new product intro -- such as the SG3 -- in either ATT or VZW's graphs. Compare that to the massive spike when a new iPhone is introduced! Shocking, because one would get that impression reading the news.

    It's no wonder that these weasels don't put out actual shipment volumes or sales numbers.

    Btw, where are all those gazillions of Android activations every day (that Rubin used to boast about) in these numbers?!:lol:

    There may be, but we can't see it. We have to consider that other smartphone lumps in everything else so if either iOS or Android pull from other vendors that use other mobile OSes on smartphones Android would have to counter that just to stay flat. That said, if we were to pull Android out of the bunch we also get smaller values for Android; and looking at the chart we'd need another one in 100k increments to see when and where Android has spiked.
  • Reply 20 of 151
    steven n.steven n. Posts: 1,229member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by MacRulez View Post


    Did I miss the link to the blogger's source data?


     


    Elsewhere on Evans' site:


     


    http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2013/4/16/a-note-on-install-bases



    You missed this part also on the site:


     


    "Of course, this ignores switching between the platforms, for which there is no good data, but a lot of it will net out. It also ignores people buying a new phone every year - but also people who are still on 3 or 4 year old phones - but these are buried in the average. The number of people selling their iPhone to buy a new one every year is the big variable here. "


     


    Given I know every previous iPhone I have had (a 3GS, 4, 4S) is still in use, I think this is a HHHUUUUGGGGEEEE variable on his installed base.  So huge, in fact, to make his estimate laughable.  Likewise, if his installed base is anywhere close to true, it puts usage data between the two platforms in even more stark contrast. Android 2X the users 1/3 the web presence. Android 2X the users 1/5-1/4 the developer revenue.

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