Fingerprint sensor in Apple's 'iPhone 5S' predicted to boost mobile commerce, enterprise adoption
Wells Fargo on Wednesday raised its projected price range for Apple stock, citing expectations that the company will become more flexible with its carrier partners, and that the anticipated inclusion of a fingerprint sensor in the "iPhone 5S" will drive up adoption rates among consumer and corporate markets.
Cross-section of AuthenTec's unique fingerprint sensor. | Source: AuthenTec
Analyst Maynard Um boosted his price range for shares of AAPL to between $525 and $575, as he high expectations for Apple's acquisition of AuthenTec, which is expected to result in a fingerprint sensor included in the company's so-called "iPhone 5S."
"As consumers increasingly rely on mobile devices to transact and store personal data, a reliable device-side authentication solution may become a necessity," he said. Um also sees a fingerprint sensor driving sales in the enterprise market, as corporations are likely to see the benefits of strong security measures.
While Um sees the "5S' increasing Apple's gross margins, a new mid-tier, multi-colored "iPhone 5C" is also expected to open up new market opportunities for Apple. He also believes Apple will expand its number of carrier partners by relaxing restrictions on iPhone sales.
In his projections, if Apple were to add 100 carrier partners, it could result in an additional 31.5 million iPhones sold in fiscal 2014.
"We believe AAPL has become less rigid with wireless operators, which we see as critical, as we believe an appropriately priced iPhone is not enough by itself to expand distribution," Um said. "In our extensive history of covering the wireless equipment sector, we have seen how BlackBerry, aside from releasing a lower-priced BlackBerry, worked closely with operators to come up with pricing plans and promotions, particularly for the prepaid market, to drive penetration."
In analyzing historical BlackBerry unit shipments and distribution, the analyst came to the conclusion that Apple could see major gains in units sold with the addition of new operators.
Apple has scheduled a media event for next Tuesday where the company is expected to introduce both the "iPhone 5S" and the "iPhone 5C." The devices are predicted to go on sale the following Friday, Sept. 20.
Cross-section of AuthenTec's unique fingerprint sensor. | Source: AuthenTec
Analyst Maynard Um boosted his price range for shares of AAPL to between $525 and $575, as he high expectations for Apple's acquisition of AuthenTec, which is expected to result in a fingerprint sensor included in the company's so-called "iPhone 5S."
"As consumers increasingly rely on mobile devices to transact and store personal data, a reliable device-side authentication solution may become a necessity," he said. Um also sees a fingerprint sensor driving sales in the enterprise market, as corporations are likely to see the benefits of strong security measures.
While Um sees the "5S' increasing Apple's gross margins, a new mid-tier, multi-colored "iPhone 5C" is also expected to open up new market opportunities for Apple. He also believes Apple will expand its number of carrier partners by relaxing restrictions on iPhone sales.
In his projections, if Apple were to add 100 carrier partners, it could result in an additional 31.5 million iPhones sold in fiscal 2014.
"We believe AAPL has become less rigid with wireless operators, which we see as critical, as we believe an appropriately priced iPhone is not enough by itself to expand distribution," Um said. "In our extensive history of covering the wireless equipment sector, we have seen how BlackBerry, aside from releasing a lower-priced BlackBerry, worked closely with operators to come up with pricing plans and promotions, particularly for the prepaid market, to drive penetration."
In analyzing historical BlackBerry unit shipments and distribution, the analyst came to the conclusion that Apple could see major gains in units sold with the addition of new operators.
Apple has scheduled a media event for next Tuesday where the company is expected to introduce both the "iPhone 5S" and the "iPhone 5C." The devices are predicted to go on sale the following Friday, Sept. 20.
Comments
I've been thinking the fingerprint sensor will be good for businesses. That's probably how Apple will talk it up at the event. The 5S will become a Pro tier device and will likely be marketed as so, while the 5C will be the consumer smartphone.
The sensor probably is not great for commerce because only Apple's platform will use it.
Everyone is excited about mobile purchases and how this will integrate with financials, but I'm thinking Multiple User IDs. Think about it: multiple users is a much bigger problem than security.
And yes, I'm serious. Apple already does a ton to ensure user privacy and security; they're head and heels above Android with no sign of losing ground.
Even if there's a finger print sensor, if it doesn't make you coffee in the morning, clean your bathrooms for you, and get you a date with Jennifer Lawrence, the analysts will still be disappointed and cause the stock to drop.
As long as Apple doesn't succumb to carriers' demands for bloatware it's all still good.
I've been thinking the fingerprint sensor will be good for businesses. That's probably how Apple will talk it up at the event. The 5S will become a Pro tier device and will likely be marketed as so, while the 5C will be the consumer smartphone.
meh.
I still think the end game is that your iOS device [registered as a certificate at apple.com], your fingerprint[locally encrypted, and a secret key to a certificate that Apple has the public key at apple.com], your AppleID username and password (again stored locally in the form of a certificate and challenged 'occasionally'), the person's GPS location/IP address (and possibly a few minutes before and after), will be the basis of a an eCommerce system that Apple operates for a transaction fee.
Those half a billion credit cards Apple has makes 'in-app' purchases pretty sweet.
effectively an API for an eComm site to
- "Dear Apple... is this person who they say they are?"
- "Dear Apple... given this person's past buying history... is this a safe transaction?"
(Check History of purchases, check locations of purchases, devices used to purchase, prior 'fraud' events against this user)
- "Dear Apple... Can you charge this person $19.99... take your 30%... send me the rest"
- "Dear Apple... Please tell this user that their phone and fingerprint was used to buy this thing where and when"
Now think that with 40-50Billion in 20 countries... Apple 'invests' in
- A Card Issuing Bank in the top 10 countries ... Now getting 12% interest on carried balances
- A payment processing system - now collecting a service charge from the retailer (say 5%, but with a much tighter fraud control on those iOS initiated transactions
- A retailer fraud detection system (see above)
- an API for apps (including PoS apps built on Macs, iPads, etc.) to internetically connect to these services.
Apple is already optimized for micropayments (those .99 purchases), and basically be integrated into everything from Airline kiosks to vending machines. Even 'offnet' purchase have a greater level of authentication, especially if the level of transaction can be 'required' to use a fingerprint.
All of a sudden eCommerce from Apple's Side is at better than Android, and arguably better/easier than Amazon/Ebay-Paypal.
And if there's no finger print sensor, the stock will plummet.
Even if there's a finger print sensor, if it doesn't make you coffee in the morning, clean your bathrooms for you, and get you a date with Jennifer Lawrence, the analysts will still be disappointed and cause the stock to drop.
The stock will drop no matter what.
The fingerprint sensor is long pull item... It won't sell more iPhones or iPads, at least for a couple years...
But... Eventually Apple's 'in-app' payment system and Passbook will be a multi-billion dollar business... at 2-30% of the transaction price.
And if the convenience for the buyer and the retailer is there, then the retailer will evolve to using Apple as a payment processor, and the buyer will evolve to using the iOS device..
AND... LONG TERM Apple can still license this to other mobile devices (or even non-mobile), as long as the implementation meets their security guidelines. And Apple still gets that 2-30% per transaction.
ITMS is the end game people... Apple becomes the bank.
Also, once people get used to just pressing their thumb instead of typing a password, then on Android devices, typing your password will feel like *such* a pain. It will make the competition feel clunky by comparison.
meh.
I still think the end game is that your iOS device [registered as a certificate at apple.com], your fingerprint[locally encrypted, and a secret key to a certificate that Apple has the public key at apple.com], your AppleID username and password (again stored locally in the form of a certificate and challenged 'occasionally'), the person's GPS location/IP address (and possibly a few minutes before and after), will be the basis of a an eCommerce system that Apple operates for a transaction fee.
Those half a billion credit cards Apple has makes 'in-app' purchases pretty sweet.
effectively an API for an eComm site to
- "Dear Apple... is this person who they say they are?"
- "Dear Apple... given this person's past buying history... is this a safe transaction?"
(Check History of purchases, check locations of purchases, devices used to purchase, prior 'fraud' events against this user)
- "Dear Apple... Can you charge this person $19.99... take your 30%... send me the rest"
- "Dear Apple... Please tell this user that their phone and fingerprint was used to buy this thing where and when"
Now think that with 40-50Billion in 20 countries... Apple 'invests' in
- A Card Issuing Bank in the top 10 countries ... Now getting 12% interest on carried balances
- A payment processing system - now collecting a service charge from the retailer (say 5%, but with a much tighter fraud control on those iOS initiated transactions
- A retailer fraud detection system (see above)
- an API for apps (including PoS apps built on Macs, iPads, etc.) to internetically connect to these services.
Apple is already optimized for micropayments (those .99 purchases), and basically be integrated into everything from Airline kiosks to vending machines. Even 'offnet' purchase have a greater level of authentication, especially if the level of transaction can be 'required' to use a fingerprint.
All of a sudden eCommerce from Apple's Side is at better than Android, and arguably better/easier than Amazon/Ebay-Paypal.
That may be Apple's long term goal but as far next weeks' announcement it will probably be more similar to ascii's post below:
I don't think it's about eCommerce, it's just about making the device easier to use. And not just for logging in, but all the other times you have to enter your password, such as buying apps or songs.
Also, once people get used to just pressing their thumb instead of typing a password, then on Android devices, typing your password will feel like *such* a pain. It will make the competition feel clunky by comparison.
If fingerprint authentication is included then it definitely represents a major advance, and if it is robust and well implemented then the impact will likely be huge. All that notwithstanding, use of it will require users to follow instructions, and I cannot even begin to imagine the magnitude of the inevitable "fingerprintgate" when it fails to work with the wrong finger, upside down, wet, with gloves etc..
...
Also, once people get used to just pressing their thumb instead of typing a password, then on Android devices, typing your password will feel like *such* a pain. It will make the competition feel clunky by comparison.
Agreed. Excellent insight.
I doubt Apple will talk up the fingerprint sensor as a business tool. I suspect Apple will merely state it is a good way to secure one's device. Apple then will work to slowly increase its usefulness.
The sensor probably is not great for commerce because only Apple's platform will use it.
3 words: Multi Factor Authentication.
You may not realize, but all US Banks are required to have 2 distinct forms of authentication
-Something you have (and can't be copied)
-Something you know (which is the weakest)
-Something you are (and can't be copied)
But most are executing 'single factor executed multiple times' (password, and 'secret question/answer')
Hard tokens are a pricy mess to provision
Biometrics on a scale is _really_ hard. And most are 2D (Authentec is 3D, with pressure [the 'print'], internal topography[the depth to the skin], and capillary mapping.
oh, and the PKI to make this happen in a secure manner (we're not shipping pictures of prints over the net... this is a series of tokens encrypted in public key technologies)... hard... unless you already have a database of every phone/pad registered, every appleID with a credit card, IN THE WORLD. [carrier based solutions... not so much].
Banks and Gov't want this. Badly.
Once Apple proves to business that a sensor-enhanced transaction has a XX% lower rate of fraud [via banks and their own ITMS history] and Passbook has a faster transaction processing rate business will evolve to it, quickly.
Consumers will evolve once they see it's 'easy' (Walk into starbucks, place your order, see it on a barista's iPad, get a push notification to your phone, and 'press your Home key to purchase' and walk out with a latte' and your receipt is in your email).
As for only Apple having the technology... Isn't that the idea? At least for a few years?
Apple _could_ license the technology... ONLY if it links to their ITMS system. In theory... Apple could write an Android Passbook app;-) that looks for a fingerprint scanner. Of course, it may charge more for non iOS transactions, as the rooting risk may be higher, and therefore exposure to the fingerprint private keys stored in the app.
But, I don't think they will. And I really think Amazon, and not the device makers will challenge the need for a fingerprint sensor, and go with other forms of 2FA (free code generating tokens... fumbly but work).
As long as Apple doesn't succumb to carriers' demands for bloatware it's all still good.
Think China Mobile.
Any phone released for China Mobile will probably contain specialized services or even Apps that cannot be removed. China Mobile has the clout to do this since their user base is so large. It may have been the "last man standing" in the way of getting them to approve the iPhone for their network. This is what the Sept. 11 event in China will be about; iPhone 5C and China Mobile.
I don't think it's about eCommerce, it's just about making the device easier to use. And not just for logging in, but all the other times you have to enter your password, such as buying apps or songs.
Agreed. It will work hand in hand with iCloud's Keychain service, which, by the way, also saves credit card information.
Although I don't believe that the 5S will have the fingerprint sensor, there's also a tiny part of my mind that thinks the marketing may follow previous "S" models in finding a meaning for the "S"...
iPhone 3GS(peed)
iPhone 4S(iri)
...and of course the "S" in the iPhone could be,
iPhone 5S(ecurity)
The stock will drop no matter what.
The fingerprint sensor is long pull item... It won't sell more iPhones or iPads, at least for a couple years...
But... Eventually Apple's 'in-app' payment system and Passbook will be a multi-billion dollar business... at 2-30% of the transaction price.
And if the convenience for the buyer and the retailer is there, then the retailer will evolve to using Apple as a payment processor, and the buyer will evolve to using the iOS device..
AND... LONG TERM Apple can still license this to other mobile devices (or even non-mobile), as long as the implementation meets their security guidelines. And Apple still gets that 2-30% per transaction.
ITMS is the end game people... Apple becomes the bank.
Sooo this fee would be on top of the normal credit card fee of 1-2%. Sigh.I disagree. If it works well, I could see it adding millions of iPhone customers in the very short term.
The stock will drop no matter what.
As predictable as the rise leading up to the iphone release. +10 today.
Everyone is excited about mobile purchases and how this will integrate with financials, but I'm thinking Multiple User IDs. Think about it: multiple users is a much bigger problem than security.
And yes, I'm serious. Apple already does a ton to ensure user privacy and security; they're head and heels above Android with no sign of losing ground.
Multiple IDs for iPads, I'm less sure about iPhones which tend (granted, so far and in my experience) to be individual.
Think people are forgetting that every service part and component for the phone has already been leaked or you can find them on different chinese websites. The home button...its there, its been seen, found, etc. Theres NO fingerprint scanner/sensor.
If there WAS this would have been leaked like crazy, people would have been beating each other with hammers to be the first one to post a pic of the thing online. Its a shame, but hey, what can you do?
And yes, Apple stock will drop. Pick any reason, the wind wasn't blowing hard enough, too hard, someone farted, donuts were not fresh enough....apples stock going up and down hasn't made sense for years.