So much going on in the world!

Posted:
in PoliticalOutsider edited September 2015
With all that is going on in the world what do you guys see in the next 10 year window? We see the influx of people into Europe from Syria and Iraq. We have the prospect of this Iran deal. We have relatively low cost oil. The rate of growth in the Chinese economy is revised downward and we see all kinds of ramifications in the markets. All across the world we see governments with debt which continues to get larger and more unsustainable. Household debt and student loan debt is also a concern in addition to federal, state and municipal debt. What do you guys see in the next 10 years?

Fellows
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 29
    brbr Posts: 8,320member

    A Bernie Sanders presidency and the rise of the millennials as a true force for change if all goes well.  

  • Reply 2 of 29
    trumptmantrumptman Posts: 16,340member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Fellowship View Post



    With all that is going on in the world what do you guys see in the next 10 year window? We see the influx of people into Europe from Syria and Iraq. We have the prospect of this Iran deal. We have relatively low cost oil. The rate of growth in the Chinese economy is revised downward and we see all kinds of ramifications in the markets. All across the world we see governments with debt which continues to get larger and more unsustainable. Household debt and student loan debt is also a concern in addition to federal, state and municipal debt. What do you guys see in the next 10 years?



    Fellows

     

    The next ten years are going to be pretty ugly. I don't know if we can find the older posts on here but I have teased for ages that both the U.S. and Europe would have an immigration problem but the U.S. would come out of it better because the Latin culture is more compatible with our current culture vs Islamic immigrants with European culture.

     

    China is a major economy is getting ready to go bust. It's simple demographics. They're running out of people due to their one child policy and the sweeping attempts to transform away from that will leave them with ghost cities, but no real growth.

     

    Europe, it's done.

     

    The U.S. will do okay but (and I'm sure this phrase is on here in seach) they are like the least sick fat person in a room full of obese people dying from health related concerns due to obesity. We are not all fine and well, just the least sick. Speaking of sick, I read a figure recently saying that half of all adults are now diabetic or prediabetic in the United States. Get yourself healthy if you aren't already. It might be the only thing you can keep

     

    As you note, the major issue is debt. I believe we are already in the midst of some pretty strong inflation (the government has declared there is none and it is not factor to be worried about at all.) Real inflation is well above 5%, closer to 8% and the inflation in food is even higher. I believe the government will continue on this route. I wrote a lot about this in the Baby Boomer threads several years ago. Inflation is their only real recourse after a lifetime of screw ups.

     

    When you look at pensions, you'll see the Boomers shut the door behind them. They will have preserved their pensions but everyone after them is on a 401k, pension with no attempt to adjust for inflation, pension without medical, etc. and they are paying much more for it. They've created a two tier system in most of the areas where there were still good jobs. It still isn't affordable but they've lived so badly their whole lives as a group that most of them are probably hoping to die off before the chickens come home to roost.

     

    There is a great debt unwinding that will need to happen at some point. The numbers will never add up. It will require extreme or near hyper-inflation to even attempt to fix it. People who work for salaries, have pensions, who have the bulk of their wealth and value tied up in actual things measured by currency (Your pension is worth X and will give you Y dollars a month.) (You have a job that paid X but inflation has made X really only worth Y or we lay you off but bring you back as a consultant making Z, etc.) are completely screwed. You need tangible and real assets. You don't own a job. You don't own a salary. You need inflation hedges, something that will throw off value that can be adjusted and keep you afloat through the unwinding. Most people don't have this, quite the opposite. Home ownership levels are way down and most who have bought aren't buying at real investment levels.

     

    Donald Trump might be the end game for all of this stuff and by that I don't mean at all that he is the solution, quite the opposite. I just mean he's like a late night infomercial. He screams a lot and sells you something expensive and worthless but the people buying it want easy solutions anyway. America wants a $90 piece of plastic that helps them do a sit-up/crunch and believe they will lose 100 lbs using it. The Democrats are a corrupt and terrible mess. The Republicans have a few people running who have really good ideas but it doesn't seem like America has the attention span to try to listen to any good ideas anymore.

     

    So in short, bring the ugly.

  • Reply 3 of 29
    br wrote: »
    A Bernie Sanders presidency and the rise of the millennials as a true force for change if all goes well.  

    I would like to talk about the idea of as you term it "the rise of the millennials". I firmly believe that the US has to be able to run shop in this country. We can not import everything and make nothing. The problem I see with the Sanders supporters is the focus on higher minimum wage. I actually think the real issue is lack of full time "middle class" jobs. If some entry level jobs pay crap that is the nature of entry level but for God's sake we need to fight for middle class jobs with full force!

    Fellows
  • Reply 4 of 29
    powerdocpowerdoc Posts: 8,122member

    Hello All

    It's a long time, that I was not there

    I am happy to see you here

     

    For the future : I don't know. I am worried, as you are. The economy is bad, and there is many threats clouding our future. There is nothing I can do, except trying to do my best. 

     

    Cheers,

    Powerdoc

  • Reply 5 of 29

    Good to read you all

    I don’t have much time right now but I’ll try.

    It seems to me the deterioration in the world we saw in the last fifteen years will probably get worse in the next ten.

    In even the most developed and stable countries one sees an erosion of such things as political institutions, economic structures, civil rights and even the rule of law. Mature political movements and persons are more often than not unable to cope with these crises and so disappoint the voters, many of whom turn to “anti-establishment” or “anti-system” individuals or movements from left, right, and elsewhere.

    Less unfortunate countries, either shatter, collapse or implode, with the consequences we see. I don’t recall any time in recent decades with so many people fleeing for their lives, but since the entire globe is in dire predicament there’s no safe haven.

     

    I feel lucky to have lived most of my life in the second half of the XXth century and I fear the coming years will be more like the first half…

     

    I wish you well.

  • Reply 6 of 29
    powerdoc wrote: »
    Hello All
    It's a long time, that I was not there
    I am happy to see you here

    For the future : I don't know. I am worried, as you are. The economy is bad, and there is many threats clouding our future. There is nothing I can do, except trying to do my best. 

    Cheers,
    Powerdoc

    What a pleasure to see you Cedric! It is so nice to re-connect with friends of years past. I come to you guys on my iPhone 6 plus. I had android for several years but love and much prefer my iPhone! Nick it is great to see you and BR as well! I have no excuse for being away for so long but I do enjoy you all!!

    Fellows
  • Reply 8 of 29
    brbr Posts: 8,320member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Fellowship View Post





    I would like to talk about the idea of as you term it "the rise of the millennials". I firmly believe that the US has to be able to run shop in this country. We can not import everything and make nothing. The problem I see with the Sanders supporters is the focus on higher minimum wage. I actually think the real issue is lack of full time "middle class" jobs. If some entry level jobs pay crap that is the nature of entry level but for God's sake we need to fight for middle class jobs with full force!



    Fellows

    Bernie is fighting for those middle class jobs, too.  Enough is enough.  The billionaires can't have it all.

  • Reply 9 of 29
    br wrote: »
    Bernie is fighting for those middle class jobs, too.  Enough is enough.  The billionaires can't have it all.

    The prescription for a waning economy and disappearing taxpayer base is not more government, which is all Democratic Socialist Bernie Sanders can offer. His solution would kill the patient on the operating table.
  • Reply 10 of 29
    Originally Posted by Fellowship View Post

    With all that is going on in the world what do you guys see in the next 10 year window?

     

    In the next ten months, the start of global depression and the collapse of at least a few currencies, both in the East and West.

     

    We see the influx of people into Europe from Syria and Iraq.


     

    Their expulsion will be pretty violent.

     

    We have the prospect of this Iran deal.


     

    My only problem with this is that they’re allowing uranium creators. Force the Iranians to use thorium and slap Israel in the face with a lack of possibility of weapons (and therefore the removal of any fabricated invasion cassus belli).

     

    The rate of growth in the Chinese economy is revised downward


     

    I don’t see that ending well for a few hundred million Chinese. Whether this is the beginning of the end of the Party is left to be seen.

     

    All across the world we see governments with debt which continues to get larger and more unsustainable.


     

    Thanks, fiat currency.

     

     What do you guys see in the next 10 years?


     

    I hope for the end of fiat currency, a return to the printing of United States Notes, and the execution or imprisonment for treason of most of the people at the Federal Reserve.

     

    See, only bad things.

  • Reply 11 of 29
    powerdocpowerdoc Posts: 8,122member



    Very nice kids !

    It's also a pleasure to see you here again.

     

    Mine are older know

    My elder daughter is a medical student, and the younger is at the equivalent of your high school  : 11th grade

     



    and my elder

     



    Sorry to be outside the subject

    Coming back to the topic

  • Reply 12 of 29
    pmcdpmcd Posts: 392member
    fellowship wrote: »
    I would like to talk about the idea of as you term it "the rise of the millennials". I firmly believe that the US has to be able to run shop in this country. We can not import everything and make nothing. The problem I see with the Sanders supporters is the focus on higher minimum wage. I actually think the real issue is lack of full time "middle class" jobs. If some entry level jobs pay crap that is the nature of entry level but for God's sake we need to fight for middle class jobs with full force!

    Fellows

    You can't just wave a wand and have middle class jobs appear. What exactly do you mean by "make". Years ago this was synonymous with "to manufacture". The types of jobs that one could get with relatively few skills were there in the heavy manufacturing sector. I highly doubt those types of jobs will ever again be numerous enough to contribute significantly to a robust middle class. It may very well be that a willingness to work hard is no longer a ticket to a middle class life. In addition, there aren't enough billionaires to create a thriving middle class even if you took away all their money.

    The current generation has really placed a high burden on young people. The amount of debt that it has rung up in order to maintain its consumer ways is quite astounding. With a shrinking number of young people, an alarming drop in the birth rate and the continuing tendency to print money I do not envy young folks who will have to pay more and more in order to maintain an ever increasing aging population.
  • Reply 13 of 29
    trumptmantrumptman Posts: 16,340member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by BR View Post

     
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Fellowship View Post





    I would like to talk about the idea of as you term it "the rise of the millennials". I firmly believe that the US has to be able to run shop in this country. We can not import everything and make nothing. The problem I see with the Sanders supporters is the focus on higher minimum wage. I actually think the real issue is lack of full time "middle class" jobs. If some entry level jobs pay crap that is the nature of entry level but for God's sake we need to fight for middle class jobs with full force!



    Fellows

    Bernie is fighting for those middle class jobs, too.  Enough is enough.  The billionaires can't have it all.


     

    Is he going to fight for them by legalizing millions of low skill, low wage people in the country and allowing ever more to keep coming?

     

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

     
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by BR View Post



    Bernie is fighting for those middle class jobs, too.  Enough is enough.  The billionaires can't have it all.




    The prescription for a waning economy and disappearing taxpayer base is not more government, which all Demicratic Socialist Bernie Sanders can offer. His solution would kill the patient on the operating table.

     

    The real question at this point is can the patient survive the treatment and the cure even if it is the right cure.

     

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

     
    Originally Posted by Fellowship View Post

    With all that is going on in the world what do you guys see in the next 10 year window?

     

    In the next ten months, the start of global depression and the collapse of at least a few currencies, both in the East and West.

     

    We see the influx of people into Europe from Syria and Iraq.


     

    Their expulsion will be pretty violent.

     

    We have the prospect of this Iran deal.


     

    My only problem with this is that they’re allowing uranium creators. Force the Iranians to use thorium and slap Israel in the face with a lack of possibility of weapons (and therefore the removal of any fabricated invasion cassus belli).

     

    The rate of growth in the Chinese economy is revised downward


     

    I don’t see that ending well for a few hundred million Chinese. Whether this is the beginning of the end of the Party is left to be seen.

     

    All across the world we see governments with debt which continues to get larger and more unsustainable.


     

    Thanks, fiat currency.

     

     What do you guys see in the next 10 years?


     

    I hope for the end of fiat currency, a return to the printing of United States Notes, and the execution or imprisonment for treason of most of the people at the Federal Reserve.

     

    See, only bad things.


     

    Funny how all these people who talk about the 99% vs the 1%, billionaires, or fat cat bankers, ignore the biggest and fattest cat banker of them all, the Federal Reserve. All bow before the Fed. As usual it is a Crony Government institution destroying and distorting the markets and outcomes. 

  • Reply 14 of 29
    pmcd wrote: »
    You can't just wave a wand and have middle class jobs appear. What exactly do you mean by "make". Years ago this was synonymous with "to manufacture".

    I read a story about a union in Battlecreek Michigan which wanted $28 an hour and paid in full by employer health insurance with zero deductible as well as pension. Well despite these demands it turns out that Kellogs shut down their production facility that has been there for decades. Where did Kellogs open shop? Mexico. Btw I will not buy any box of Kellogs made in Mexico and that is not because I am racist but simply because I don't trust how things are done down there. I have had mineral water from Mexico that smelled and tasted like WD -40. I read about cilantro and cucumber production down there with human waste in the fields. I refuse to support this with a cent of my money. Now what I would advocate is that Kellogs set up shop in Texas and provide jobs to Americans. These jobs may not pay $28 an hour or provide all the gold plated goodies the union thugs demanded in Michigan but I argue that we can "run shop" in this country. Not just with this Kellogs example but with all kinds of products. I refuse to believe that Americans must settle with eroding manufacturing and bring in everything from food, clothes, tires, pencils, light bulbs, etc. from low cost countries like China, Bangladesh, Mexico etc.

    We can run shop in America. It may not be Union but it can be done.

    Fellowship
  • Reply 15 of 29
    fellowship wrote: »
    I read a story about a union in Battlecreek Michigan which wanted $28 an hour and paid in full by employer health insurance with zero deductible as well as pension. Well despite these demands it turns out that Kellogs shut down their production facility that has been there for decades. Where did Kellogs open shop? Mexico. Btw I will not buy any box of Kellogs made in Mexico and that is not because I am racist but simply because I don't trust how things are done down there. I have had mineral water from Mexico that smelled and tasted like WD -40. I read about cilantro and cucumber production down there with human waste in the fields. I refuse to support this with a cent of my money. Now what I would advocate is that Kellogs set up shop in Texas and provide jobs to Americans. These jobs may not pay $28 an hour or provide all the gold plated goodies the union thugs demanded in Michigan but I argue that we can "run shop" in this country. Not just with this Kellogs example but with all kinds of products. I refuse to believe that Americans must settle with eroding manufacturing and bring in everything from food, clothes, tires, pencils, light bulbs, etc. from low cost countries like China, Bangladesh, Mexico etc.

    We can run shop in America. It may not be Union but it can be done.

    Fellowship

    Demand that the Federal minimum wage be ended and Americans will have more opportunities in all industries.
  • Reply 16 of 29
    Originally Posted by trumptman View Post

    Funny how all these people who talk about the 99% vs the 1%, billionaires, or fat cat bankers, ignore the biggest and fattest cat banker of them all, the Federal Reserve. All bow before the Fed. As usual it is a Crony Government institution destroying and distorting the markets and outcomes. 


     

    Destroy the Federal Reserve and its puppet–the Bank of International Settlements–and not only do you plunge the world into chaos, you save it from the most demonic tyranny since... let’s see, when was Jerusalem sacked? Ah, 70 AD.



    From the ashes will emerge a new world with countries who coin their own currency, backed by actual money (of which there is none now), and which are near-total isolationist save where their national, genetic, or societal policies deem otherwise.

     

    I’m called evil for wanting this, but I’d like to return to a world that doesn’t want to pretend that borders are permanent. Back to when the word ‘country’ had a proper definition, and all that that implies.

  • Reply 17 of 29
    powerdoc wrote: »

    Beautiful :)
  • Reply 18 of 29

    Welcome back, Fellowship - good to see you back here.

     

    Yes, so much going on in the world, much of it complete insanity, and presided over by a cadre of sociopaths/psychopaths, regardless of political leaning. ISIS is a notorious example in illustrating how humanity has the capability of losing touch with anything and everything that defines us as being "civilized". Hitler's Nazi henchmen - the Schutzstaffel - were of a similar bent - doing anything they were ordered, regardless of how appalling or evil, to their fellow human beings. It's a scary thought that even today, where the world has become so "small" on account of our interconnectedness via social media etc - such stuff can still happen, and nobody seems to have the will, or capability, of stopping it. 

     

    Incidentally, does Godwin's Law apply in this case?

  • Reply 19 of 29
    sdw2001sdw2001 Posts: 16,470member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by BR View Post

     

    A Bernie Sanders presidency and the rise of the millennials as a true force for change if all goes well.  




    LOL

  • Reply 20 of 29
    sdw2001sdw2001 Posts: 16,470member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by BR View Post

     

    Bernie is fighting for those middle class jobs, too.  Enough is enough.  The billionaires can't have it all.




    Oh, I see.  He's "fighting" for them.  He's doing so by increasing the base labor cost to a level where entry level workers will be priced out.  More taxing.  More regulation.  More stagnation.   Oh, and don't forget an onslaught of programs costing trillions of dollars, from infrastructure to free college and pre-K.  And universal healthcare.  The problem, BR, is that the golden goose is very sick already.  Bernie will finally kill it.   Like all good radical progressives, you think it's the government's responsibility to equalize outcomes.  In the end, all it ends up doing is making more people poor and dependent on government.  

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