Berenberg fires analyst infamous for doom-and-gloom Apple forecasts

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited December 2015
Berenberg Bank on Monday let go of Adnaan Ahmad, an analyst known for making some of the bleakest forecasts for Apple stock, with a price target well below $100.




Ahmad acknowledged that his views have been "controversial in the global tech space," and that he has taken "a fair amount of abuse" for them, according to a personal memo about the departure, obtained by Fortune.

The exact reasons for the termination haven't been made public. Neither Ahmad nor a fellow analyst fired from Berenberg, Daud Khan, have another employer immediately lined up.

With Berenberg, Ahmad's estimates for Apple were often so conservative as to be below every other major analyst. In February, for instance, he suggested that Apple's share price was set to plummet over 50 percent to $60, even as other bearish analysts kept targets over $100. Apple shares are currently trading at about $107.

The argument was that the company was too dependent on the iPhone for its profits, and poised to take a hit from a combination of slowed replacement cycles and limits on high-end smartphone marketshare.

In his last Apple stock forecast, from March, Ahmad raised his target to $85, but claimed that the company was "over-earning" and "over-loved," and that its stock would soon be "over-and-out."
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 46
    hes already got defenders on the Fortune source article's comments.
  • Reply 2 of 46
    tjwolftjwolf Posts: 424member
    The guy should have been fired a long time ago.  It's one thing to predict doom, but to continue to do so for several years - when reality doesn't bear you out - is simply irresponsible.  Think of how much the investors at Berenberg who listened to this guy have lost in terms of opportunity!  If they listened to him when he first warned of Apple's impending doom, they would have missed an almost doubling of the stock as well as dividends.
    chiaredgeminipajbdragonapplepieguysconosciuto
  • Reply 3 of 46
    tjwolf said:
    The guy should have been fired a long time ago.  It's one thing to predict doom, but to continue to do so for several years - when reality doesn't bear you out - is simply irresponsible.  Think of how much the investors at Berenberg who listened to this guy have lost in terms of opportunity!  If they listened to him when he first warned of Apple's impending doom, they would have missed an almost doubling of the stock as well as dividends.
    Berenberg is not responsible for investors who lose money because they made their decisions on the basis of the a report from a Berenberg analyst. The only way Berenberg can be held remotely responsible is if there was evidence of bias or intent to deceive investors. There was none of that. The analyst simply arrived at a conclusion on the basis of the data he had, which I will assume was clearly outlined in the report until I see evidence to the contrary. Investors shouldn't blindly follow an analyst report. 
    gregoriusmchia
  • Reply 4 of 46
    ronmgronmg Posts: 163member
    I agree Berenberg is not responsible for investors who lose money, but I suspect they have been losing investors who got pissed based on the idiocy of their so-called 'analyst' and seeing what they missed out on based on stupid predictions. Once a bunch of high-valued investors (i.e. loaded investors) left for other more reputable and frankly less anti-Apple companies, Berenberg had no choice.
    redgeminipajbdragon
  • Reply 5 of 46
    Can they fire a lot more? 
  • Reply 6 of 46
    Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!
  • Reply 7 of 46
    Looks like someone's career is "over-and-out".
    jkichlineredgeminipa
  • Reply 8 of 46
    He can go and contribute to Forbes or Business Insider now, I guess.
    redgeminipa
  • Reply 9 of 46
    I see this is turning out to be piss on Apple week. The latest is Nilay Patel's article on the Verge calling all of Apple's products this year "beta" and all the bets it placed will come due next year (read: 2016 is make or break year for Apple). Forbes is running an article about how Apple must fix its "big problem" with Watch. I'm not sure what it is as I refused to click on the link. Another article is warning of a big sales slump next year because of no new products (not sure where they got that information). And we wonder why the stock is down over 5% this year while Google and Amazon are up double and triple digits.
    cornchip
  • Reply 10 of 46
    "Over-loved"???
    wtf does that even mean?  :/
    redgeminipa
  • Reply 11 of 46
    I see this is turning out to be piss on Apple week. The latest is Nilay Patel's article on the Verge calling all of Apple's products this year "beta" and all the bets it placed will come due next year (read: 2016 is make or break year for Apple). Forbes is running an article about how Apple must fix its "big problem" with Watch. I'm not sure what it is as I refused to click on the link. Another article is warning of a big sales slump next year because of no new products (not sure where they got that information). And we wonder why the stock is down over 5% this year while Google and Amazon are up double and triple digits.
    Nilay Patel trolls Apple because he knows it'll generate traffic. He's not worth the attention and I've abandoned The Verge (as have many of their former writers and editors) since Patel took over).
    edited December 2015
  • Reply 12 of 46
    chasmchasm Posts: 3,317member
    Well, this IS a day: an analyst was fired for being bad at their job. I don't give a whit about his anti-Apple bias: he wasn't fired for it, he was fired because he was generally bad at his job, with his view on Apple being an example. Let's hope this sparks a trend. I can think of quite a few bad analysts who should be fired, again not just for their bad track record on Apple; for their bad track record generally.
    sconosciuto
  • Reply 13 of 46
    I see this is turning out to be piss on Apple week. The latest is Nilay Patel's article on the Verge calling all of Apple's products this year "beta" and all the bets it placed will come due next year (read: 2016 is make or break year for Apple). Forbes is running an article about how Apple must fix its "big problem" with Watch. I'm not sure what it is as I refused to click on the link. Another article is warning of a big sales slump next year because of no new products (not sure where they got that information). And we wonder why the stock is down over 5% this year while Google and Amazon are up double and triple digits.
    Nilay Patel trolls Apple because he knows it'll generate traffic. He's not worth the attention and I've abandoned The Verge (as have many of their former writers and editors) since Patel took over).
    Yeah it's pretty bad. What amazes me (though I probably shouldn't be surprised) is where is all the tech outrage over Microsoft's garbage hardware and Windows 10? They all seem to keep drooling over Surface this and that yet check out forums like on Windows Central and it's problems galore, including the new Windows phones. Yet nary a peep from Patel or any other tech writers. All we get are posts drooling over a mythical Surface phone yet no one can explain what's going to make this phone something an iPhone or Android user would switch to (sorry a magnesium chassis isn't going to do it). Microsoft's chief marketing officer was on Windows Weekly with Leo Laporte, Paul Thurrott and Mary Jo Foley. He was apologizing so much and it was so embarrassing that Thurrott has to tell him to stop. And yet Microsoft stock is at near record highs.
    edited December 2015 cornchipchia
  • Reply 14 of 46
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    I see this is turning out to be piss on Apple week. The latest is Nilay Patel's article on the Verge calling all of Apple's products this year "beta" and all the bets it placed will come due next year (read: 2016 is make or break year for Apple). Forbes is running an article about how Apple must fix its "big problem" with Watch. I'm not sure what it is as I refused to click on the link. Another article is warning of a big sales slump next year because of no new products (not sure where they got that information). And we wonder why the stock is down over 5% this year while Google and Amazon are up double and triple digits.
    Nigel has shitted on Apple all year.

    His line of argument is worthy of a college dropout; no logic, no facts, nothing.

    His Apple Watch "review" was embarassing to him!

    Funny how he was the most negative on the Apple Watch when it will sell 15M+ by years end and be a big success.
    By next year, Apple will be selling as much from it as the Ipad (and Ipad sales will hold or go up).

    He's a certifiable moron.


    One thing that has put pressure on Apple is the massive upswing of the US dollar; that's something Apple will need to take care of this year if it continues.
    This has nothing to do with how good or not its product is though. If a product goes up 40% in 2 years (US dollar rising) there isn't an infinite amount of money in the high end, people will delay their purchases. Still buy Apple but less often.
  • Reply 15 of 46
    Nilay Patel trolls Apple because he knows it'll generate traffic. He's not worth the attention and I've abandoned The Verge (as have many of their former writers and editors) since Patel took over.
    Yeah it's pretty bad. What amazes me (though I probably shouldn't be surprised) is where is all the tech outrage over Microsoft's garbage hardware and Windows 10? They all seem to keep drooling over Surface this and that yet check out forums like on Windows Central and it's problems galore, including the new Windows phones. Yet nary a peep from Patel or any other tech writers. All we get are posts drooling over a mythical Surface phone yet no one can explain what's going to make this phone something an iPhone or Android user would switch to (sorry a magnesium chassis isn't going to do it).
    If I recall correctly, Microsoft is a big advertiser on The Verge, as is Samsung.
    cornchippalominexamax
  • Reply 16 of 46
    Berenberg Bank on Monday let go of Adnaan Ahmad, an analyst known for making some of the bleakest forecasts for Apple stock, with a price target well below $100.
    This is truly the end of all things.

    An analyst actually got fired for being wrong. The global economy won’t last much longer.
    justadcomicssphericpalomineSpamSandwich
  • Reply 17 of 46
    512ke512ke Posts: 782member
    I'm sorry to see him go. Doomy and gloomy analysts like him have helped many investors make money over the long term by buying APPL at artificially deflated prices. 
    chiaSpamSandwich
  • Reply 18 of 46
    JinTechJinTech Posts: 1,026member
    Guys why are any of you surprised on everyone else's outlook on AAPL and Apple Inc in general? People have been saying "Apple is doomed" since Steve Jobs took over in 1997! Almost 20 years ago! Sure it hurts Apples stock but it's time for us to stop feeding into these trolls and get on with our lives. All we can do is post our own positive outlook and hell, analyze back based on our own knowledge from the last 20 years and give these people a run for their money!
    palomine
  • Reply 19 of 46
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 4,056member
    The dumb fuck needed to be dumped. Well deserved.
    sconosciuto
  • Reply 20 of 46
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,926member
    It's a good start. Now let's get the other wrong analysts reassigned. 
    tallest skil
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