Apple suppliers expect iPhone 6s orders to be cut by 30% this quarter - report

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2016
Apple suppliers are preparing for slower-than-expected sales of the iPhone 6s and 6s Plus in the current March quarter, with orders said to be some 30 percent lower than originally expected, according to Japanese business newspaper Nikkei.




Inventory of the iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s Plus has "piled up at retailers" since they launched in September, the new report claims. As a result, Apple is allegedly scaling back production for the January-to-March quarter.

It's worth noting that Tuesday's rumor comes from Nikkei Asian Review, a part of The Nikkei, which is the world's largest financial newspaper with a daily circulation of over 3 million. Previous reports about slowing iPhone sales were attributed to supply chain rumors, Apple partners, and Wall Street speculation.

It was said that Apple had previously indicated to suppliers that it expected iPhone sales to follow their usual seasonal trends in the March quarter. Tuesday's report suggested that Apple may have over-produced the iPhone 6s series in the December quarter, leaving excess inventory in the channel to start calendar 2016.

The report will almost certainly fuel concerns on Wall Street that the iPhone 6s series won't be able to continue the iPhone's upward growth trajectory from year to year. Speculation about "peak iPhone" sales has been attributed to recent struggles for AAPL stock.




Wall Street analysts have largely stood by Apple as a no-brainer long-term investment. But worries that iPhone sales could actually decline year over year in the coming quarters have led a number of research firms to cut their estimates in recent weeks, including FBR & Co., RBC Capital Markets, J.P. Morgan, and Morgan Stanley.

Investors will likely have a better indication of how the iPhone 6s series is performing when Apple announces the results of its just-concluded December quarter on Jan. 26. The company had projected revenue between $75.5 billion and $77.5 billion, with gross margins between 39 and 40 percent.

Driven by the launch of the iPhone 6s lineup and the holiday shopping season, market watchers generally expect that Apple set a new quarterly record for iPhone sales in the December frame. Their concerns instead extend to the March and June quarters, as some customers may wait for an anticipated "iPhone 7" lineup.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 106
    mac_128mac_128 Posts: 2,734member
    Perhaps those rumors are because Apple expects to sell a large number of new 4" iPhones instead. Which is possibly further evidence that the new 4" phone will be more of a premium device, or at least premium-adjacent. So no losses for Wall Street to be concerned about.
  • Reply 2 of 106
    We've heard these supply chain rumors since the beginning of December. At what point is this already baked in to the stock price? 
  • Reply 3 of 106
    mjtomlinmjtomlin Posts: 1,593member
    as some customers may wait for an anticipated "iPhone 7" lineup

    Tired of hearing this "concern" over and over and over again. Do these people think they have some brilliant insight into Apple's product release schedule that they have point out that SOME people will wait for the next version? SOME people have to wait because that's the carrier upgrade schedule they're locked into.

    And why is it a concern? It's the same damned thing every-freaken-year. Did they expect sales to rocket higher after the holiday quarter? And what happened to the rumors of a 4" iPhone being released during this period of concern? Won't that help boost sales for those who've been holding out for another small phone?

    These "insider" analysts rumors run over each other so often it makes you wonder if they're just made up? LOL
    chia
  • Reply 4 of 106
    Well if they are introducing a new iPhone 6c or 7c this quarter, then it makes sense to expect some buyers to go for the 6c or 7c.

  • Reply 5 of 106
    icoco3icoco3 Posts: 1,346member
    Same rumor, different quarter.
    jfc1138calichianolamacguybestkeptsecret
  • Reply 6 of 106
    sog35sog35 Posts: 12,198member
    Here we go again.

    This is probably the 15th time these supply chain rumors have come out since November.
    And each time the stock losses $10 billion to $30 billion in value.

    Yet Tim Cook says absolutely NOTHING.
    The stock is down nearly $180 billion since these rumors have started.
    Yet Cook does nothing.


  • Reply 7 of 106
    Does anyone here pay attention to Horace Dediu's analysis over at Asymco?  Here's his chart.  It's impossible for me to see this sky-is-falling, 30% cut scenario when I look at the Asymco work:  
    buckalecnolamacguy
  • Reply 8 of 106
    sog35sog35 Posts: 12,198member

    We've heard these supply chain rumors since the beginning of December. At what point is this already baked in to the stock price? 
    Never.

    Each time Tim Cook refuses to dispute these supply chain lies the stock will go down.  It has happenned 10x already in the past 2 months. No reason for it too stop.

    With each new rumor and non-comment by Apple just adds more wood to the fire that these stories are actually true.

    Any half way decent CEO would have disputed these rumors WEEKS ago.  Yet Tim Cook does jack shit and allows these assholes to ruin the stock by telling lies.
  • Reply 9 of 106
    sflocalsflocal Posts: 3,612member
    sog35 said:
    Here we go again.

    This is probably the 15th time these supply chain rumors have come out since November.
    And each time the stock losses $10 billion to $30 billion in value.

    Yet Tim Cook says absolutely NOTHING.
    The stock is down nearly $180 billion since these rumors have started.
    Yet Cook does nothing.


    Alright Sog... knock it off. Go ban yourself as you promised.  You have plenty of time to nag everyone about your rant, yet "conveniently" are elusive about the self-ban promise you made.

    Either that, or just be quiet about it already.
    icoco3mac_doglord amhranmuppetrymagman1979delreyjonesjonlfreshmakerafrodrifotoformat
  • Reply 10 of 106
    flaneurflaneur Posts: 4,346member
    sog35 said:
    Here we go again.

    This is probably the 15th time these supply chain rumors have come out since November.
    And each time the stock losses $10 billion to $30 billion in value.

    Yet Tim Cook says absolutely NOTHING.
    The stock is down nearly $180 billion since these rumors have started.
    Yet Cook does nothing.


    Doing and saying nothing is exactly the right strategy, until the earnings report. 

    The analysts and the tech rumor sites, including the negative comment threads, are just so much contemptible noise, for the reasons he already gave two years ago. Beneath comment for someone like him, who expects people will listen to what he says and learn from experience that Apple has the products and the marketing to keep growing.


    magman1979delreyjoneschiadrewys808
  • Reply 11 of 106
    icoco3icoco3 Posts: 1,346member
    sog35 said:
    icoco3 said:
    Same rumor, different quarter.
    More like same rumor, different day.

    This is the same supply chain bullshit that's been going around since November.

    And each time the stock loses $10 billion to $30 billion in value.
    Yet Tim Cook does NOTHING.


    I guess he is just making it cheaper for you to buy even more.  Time to solidify your holdings.

    If Tim Cook every puts up another "Lunch with Tim Cook" auction, make sure you win it then you can finally vent your grievances to him.  On this site, we don't care what you think on that matter so just start making posts with something useful and stop the trolling.
    jfc1138nolamacguy
  • Reply 12 of 106
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 3,142member
    BTW, last year when they got 30% more sales than predicted, they also got chatter of big order cuts; they were wrong.
    Before Q3, chatter about order cuts, wrong again.

    As for saying nothing.
    Because they're not true...
    Because starting to respond now would open up a pandoras box of expectations of having to respond to every single one of the 1000s of rumors coming out every month.
    Because it would be idiotic to say anything 3 weeks before the Q1 conference call.
    Because he's busy suing the pants off those suppliers (or just cuting them off), for leaking confidential info (if its true of course).

    Whatever works for you.

    yojimbo007argonaut
  • Reply 13 of 106
    poksipoksi Posts: 480member
    sog35 said:
    icoco3 said:
    Same rumor, different quarter.
    More like same rumor, different day.

    This is the same supply chain bullshit that's been going around since November.

    And each time the stock loses $10 billion to $30 billion in value.
    Yet Tim Cook does NOTHING.


    Don't buy stock if you don't have the nerve to stand by it.
    icoco3delreyjonesnolamacguy
  • Reply 14 of 106
    sog35 said:
    Can someone give a rational explanation why Tim Cook isn't disputing these reports?
    Sure...have you considered that the reports might actually be accurate?
    icoco3cnocbui
  • Reply 15 of 106
    Maybe Tim Cook isn't disputing these reports because they are true and iphone numbers will be light for the quarter. Also, he doesn't have to issue a warning just because of light iphone sales, only if the total revenue of the company is below guidance. IMO this would be a good scenario as it tells me that sales of macs, ipads, watches etc. etc. are doing better than expected which will quiet those who think Apple is a one trick pony with the iphone.
  • Reply 16 of 106
    mjtomlinmjtomlin Posts: 1,593member
    flaneur said:
    sog35 said:
    Here we go again.

    This is probably the 15th time these supply chain rumors have come out since November.
    And each time the stock losses $10 billion to $30 billion in value.

    Yet Tim Cook says absolutely NOTHING.
    The stock is down nearly $180 billion since these rumors have started.
    Yet Cook does nothing.


    Doing and saying nothing is exactly the right strategy, until the earnings report. 

    The analysts and the tech rumor sites, including the negative comment threads, are just so much contemptible noise, for the reasons he already gave two years ago. Beneath comment for someone like him, who expects people will listen to what he says and learn from experience that Apple has the products and the marketing to keep growing.



    Tim Cook already said something over a year ago about reading the supply chain tea leaves. These people obviously don't listen to or believe anything Tim says (even though their financial reports have backed up everything he said), so why bother continuing to play this stupid game? Instead, let the quarterly report speak for itself.

    If you're a long-term investor, the price hitting this low gives you an opportunity to expand your investment. If you're a day trader, well that's the gamble you made.

    nolamacguy
  • Reply 17 of 106
    sog35 said:
    Can someone give a rational explanation why Tim Cook isn't disputing these reports?
    Yes, from an interview with the Irish Independent -- Cook: "I don't even look at what the analysts say", videlicet:
    http://www.businessinsider.com.au/tim-cook-says-he-doesnt-read-what-analysts-write-about-apple-2015-11

    icoco3chianolamacguy
  • Reply 18 of 106
    slurpyslurpy Posts: 4,689member
    sog35 said:
    Here we go again.

    This is probably the 15th time these supply chain rumors have come out since November.
    And each time the stock losses $10 billion to $30 billion in value.

    Yet Tim Cook says absolutely NOTHING.
    The stock is down nearly $180 billion since these rumors have started.
    Yet Cook does nothing.



    I can't fathom how childish you are, if you believe that Cook stating "Supply chain rumors are unreliable" (as he's done a million times in the past) will magically fix the stock. It's like you got this moronic idea into your head that you've decided to keep repeating with no basis in reality. 

    I just bought another 30 shares yesterday, cause unlike you, I'm a long term investor that realizes that Apple's fundamentals are insanely strong, and stock price does not reflect its performance- I also have faith in those that run the company. Tim Cook's job is not to manage the stock, but the health of the company and it's product, in which he's doing a commendable job. If the stock does not reflect the ACTUAL health of the company, that has nothing to do with Cook. Sell your shares and go buy stock in a company that you actually believe in. You must have a shitload of time on your hands to repeat the same rant 5000x. 
    edited January 2016 derrickdoingitlord amhranicoco3magman1979muppetryeightzerodrewys808chiaargonaut
  • Reply 19 of 106
    ac1234ac1234 Posts: 138member
    aeassa said:
    sog35 said:
    Can someone give a rational explanation why Tim Cook isn't disputing these reports?
    Sure...have you considered that the reports might actually be accurate?
    That is a possibility - of concern for sure.
  • Reply 20 of 106
    jkichlinejkichline Posts: 1,142member
    sog35 said:
    Can someone give a rational explanation why Tim Cook isn't disputing these reports?
    He already has explained to not rely on supply chain checks and has already provided guidance for the quarter. A skill of intelligent people is to learn how to ignore the noise of idiots and focus on your objective. There's no need for him to argue with crazy people who make shit up.

    On top of this, if the stock price sinks Apple can buyback more shares from all the analysts wetting themselves over the ipocolypse. It's a win-win situation.
    icoco3badmonk
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