Apple returns to over $100 per share ahead of Q1 2016 earnings report

AppleInsider

Shares of AAPL closed above $100 on Friday, as investors bought in ahead of earnings and once again returned the iPhone maker's stock to three-digit territory.

Apple stock closed Friday at $101.43, up more than 5.1 percent in trading for the day from its previous close of $96.30.

Investors pushed the stock past the $100 mark just a few days before Apple will report the results of its first quarter of fiscal 2016. It's expected that Apple will again report record holiday sales of its blockbuster iPhone product line.

But AAPL stock has taken a beating in recent months as Wall Street watchers have expressed concern over the current March quarter and beyond. Speculation has been that the current iPhone 6s lineup won't sustain growth, and that the iPhone product lineup could see its first ever year-over-year decline in unit sales.

Shares of AAPL have languished below $100 since earlier this month, when they closed at that level for the first time since October of 2014.

Apple will report the results of its December quarter earnings next Tuesday after markets close. AppleInsider will have full, live coverage.

jimdreamworx

This is why Apple Pay has to succeed to the point of being used regularly by millions.  That is the only way to bring its P/E to that of any other company that pushes things that are purchased on a far more regular basis than a new phone or app at an online store.

rogifan_old

So Gene Munster is out there saying the stock will go up 50% with iPhone 7. Why? What's going to be so special about the 7 that will get people who didn't upgrade to the 6S (or 6) to upgrade? A new case design? Seriously? I think it's nonsense.

rogifan_old

sog35 said:

jimdreamworx said:

This is why Apple Pay has to succeed to the point of being used regularly by millions.  That is the only way to bring its P/E to that of any other company that pushes things that are purchased on a far more regular basis than a new phone or app at an online store.

Apple needs to change their accounting method for iPhone sales.

They should split the revenue between hardware and software. That way each iPhone would have $400 in hardware revenue and $250 in software revenue. Then spread the $250 in software revenue over 2 years.  If Apple did this their 2015 revenue would look like this:

Hardware revenue - $140 billion
Software and Services - $90 billion
Other revenue - $5 billion

If Apple wants to be treated like a hardware/software company they need to report like one.

Sounds like financial engineering to me. Wall Street knows Apple isn't just a hardware company. Messing with the financials isn't going to get them to stop treating Apple like one if that's what they're choosing to do. I do think Apple should stop reporting sales figures and just report on install base. Reporting iPhone sales figures does nothing but provide a big fat target and Apple can't win. If they don't beat the target they're doomed and if they do they're still doomed because it creates difficult "comps". Stop reporting sales figures.

Also as I've said before I think Apple needs to hire someone top notch at the SVP level to run their cloud business. Eddy Cue isn't cutting it and has his plate full with iTunes, Music, TV and Pay.  This would show people Apple is serious about the cloud machine learning/AI and would allow Eddy to focus exclusively on Apple's content business which have a lot of potential but also need a lot of work.

sockrolid

Rule #1 for AAPL investors: Buy on rumor, sell on news.

crowley

sog35 said:

jimdreamworx said:

This is why Apple Pay has to succeed to the point of being used regularly by millions.  That is the only way to bring its P/E to that of any other company that pushes things that are purchased on a far more regular basis than a new phone or app at an online store.

Apple needs to change their accounting method for iPhone sales.

They should split the revenue between hardware and software. That way each iPhone would have $400 in hardware revenue and $250 in software revenue. Then spread the $250 in software revenue over 2 years.  If Apple did this their 2015 revenue would look like this:

Hardware revenue - $140 billion
Software and Services - $90 billion
Other revenue - $5 billion

If Apple wants to be treated like a hardware/software company they need to report like one.

Transparent nonsense.  You can't buy the software without the hardware, and once you've bought the hardware the software is free.  There's only one product, the iPhone, which is (insufficiently, but necessarily) classed as hardware.

rogifan_old

sog35 said:

rogifan_old said:

So Gene Munster is out there saying the stock will go up 50% with iPhone 7. Why? What's going to be so special about the 7 that will get people who didn't upgrade to the 6S (or 6) to upgrade? A new case design? Seriously? I think it's nonsense.

Nonsense?

The stock was $134 last year. $150 is only an 11% increase in stock price.  If Apple grows profits by 10% this year that would give Apple a 12 PE sans cash with a $150 share price. There is nothing ridiculous about it.

What's non-sense is Apple's current price and ridiculous sub 7 PE sans cash.

Don't forget that the iPhone buying population is increasing by tens of millions each year.
Don't forget that China is adding tens of millions of middleclass people each year.
Don't forget many millions have skipped 6/6s and will buy 7.

Apple only has to grow revenue/profits by 10% to reach $150

No what's nonsense is this idea that iPhone 7 will be some major catalyst to see the stock increase 50% or whatever stupid number Munster came up with. IF people aren't buying the 6S what's going to make them buy the 7?

mixotic1

That's a pretty big IF. Care to make side bet?

focher

AAPL articles are funny. Just results in the same, tired discussion. 

nemoeac

Anyhow - if this truly is stock manipulation that's responsible for the recent decrease in the stock price, those responsible have now had ample time to reverse their positions and prepare for a surge in the other direction.  They've ran the price down and taken a lot of profit while doing so.  Now they may be about to release the brakes and let it rally to 150 or 160 then cash out and prepare to drag it back down.  They don't benefit from a stable stock price.  They benefit by controlling the direction.  I for one want my money to be in play when they decide it's time to lift the anchor and so I'm buying as much more as I can between now and the earnings announcement.  (I think that's when we'll see the direction change - possibly even 4-5 days prior to the earnings announcement)!

Awesome! 

Exactly as I predicted 16 days ago, today marks the turnaround in Apple's stock price! 

On Jan 6th, I predicted that the stock would begin to rise 4 days before earnings are announced and that it wouldn't stop until it surpassed $150!

Today is 4 days before earnings are announced and we're up 5%!  How many of the analysts called *that*?  :

http://forums.appleinsider.com/discussion/comment/2819571/#Comment_2819571

Let's hope that the rest of my predictions are also true and that this isn't just a coincidental "blip".  $160 by July!

frijolero

rogifan_old said:

sog35 said:

Nonsense?

The stock was $134 last year. $150 is only an 11% increase in stock price.  If Apple grows profits by 10% this year that would give Apple a 12 PE sans cash with a $150 share price. There is nothing ridiculous about it.

What's non-sense is Apple's current price and ridiculous sub 7 PE sans cash.

Don't forget that the iPhone buying population is increasing by tens of millions each year.
Don't forget that China is adding tens of millions of middleclass people each year.
Don't forget many millions have skipped 6/6s and will buy 7.

Apple only has to grow revenue/profits by 10% to reach $150

No what's nonsense is this idea that iPhone 7 will be some major catalyst to see the stock increase 50% or whatever stupid number Munster came up with. IF people aren't buying the 6S what's going to make them buy the 7?

The 6s has sold very well but demand for iPhones always tapers in anticipation of a new model. Every year we get this gloom and doom about market saturation and how it's over for Apple, then they come out with a new phone or some other product and prove the naysayers wrong. I suspect it won't be any different this time.

jason98

I am afraid Apple being up today was just a part of the broad market sucker rally. So good opportunity to short (not just AAPL).

adamc

No what's nonsense is this idea that iPhone 7 will be some major catalyst to see the stock increase 50% or whatever stupid number Munster came up with. IF people aren't buying the 6S what's going to make them buy the 7? Because they skip the 6s to buy the 7.

jason98

adamc said:

No what's nonsense is this idea that iPhone 7 will be some major catalyst to see the stock increase 50% or whatever stupid number Munster came up with. IF people aren't buying the 6S what's going to make them buy the 7?

IMO, it will be worth to buy for waterproof feature alone.

anantksundaram

Meh. It's a ridiculously undervalued stock. I bought some more last week, but it's become too big a part of my portfolio. 

Must.stop.doing.this. 

anantksundaram

sockrolid said:

Rule #1 for AAPL investors: Buy on rumor, sell on news.

This is an old and well-known Wall Street adage, and is generally thought to apply to all stocks. 

anantksundaram

Exactly as I predicted 16 days ago, today marks the turnaround in Apple's stock price! 

On Jan 6th, I predicted that the stock would begin to rise 4 days before earnings are announced and that it wouldn't stop until it surpassed $150!

Today is 4 days before earnings are announced and we're up 5%!  How many of the analysts called *that*?  :

http://forums.appleinsider.com/discussion/comment/2819571/#Comment_2819571

Let's hope that the rest of my predictions are also true and that this isn't just a coincidental "blip".  $160 by July!

What do you do for a living? Astrology?

latifbp

sog35 said:

The stock was $100 over THREE YEARS AGO.  Since then Apple has added $130 billion in profits, $100 billion in cash, and $700 billion in sales.

Its an absolute joke that this stock isn't $150 right now.

If this stock had the PE of Coke it would be $200.

If you have money to spare go buy Apple stock NOW. I wish I could buy more but I'm at my max.

I bought a bunch more two weeks ago, doubling my portfolio. I'm just waiting for Tuesday's earnings call and hope Tim Cook body slams some fools! I know these jackasses will drive it down again leading up to March quarter and beyond June but I'm confident about the company and I'm hoping it translates to AAPL. I'm pissed like you as well because so much valued was just pissed away for no good reason.

latifbp

adamc said:

No what's nonsense is this idea that iPhone 7 will be some major catalyst to see the stock increase 50% or whatever stupid number Munster came up with. IF people aren't buying the 6S what's going to make them buy the 7?

- People haven't risen above the contract cycles dictated by subsidies of two year contracts. Once the carriers pry us all into their leasing programs people will upgrade more expediently and realize the value. There'll no longer be a point to keep your iPhone 4 all the way until 2016. It'll become apparent that it's equal the cost to keep the same iPhone or upgrade. Some will keep it as either they are old dogs slow to learn new tracks or environmentalists not wanting to support Apple producing a bunch of new iPhones into the world. But most will just roll it over to the new iPhone and catch Apple fever.

ksec

For some reason I am not optimistic. Apple may likely see first decline in iPhone sales over previous year quarter. And Even if they break record, their guardian and prediction for next quarter will likely be lower.

This is enough to drive the stock price back down.

I hope i am wrong though.

5150iii

Like many of you I look at this from many different angles. I originally bought back in after AAPL dropped 2 years ago after earnings and then sold before last years Jan. report out of fear of a repeat and lost out on a nice move. I do believe that due to the price and overall environment a low bar is baked in so a huge beat and upbeat guidance can make for a nice move higher to get it moving again. I trust Cook when he talks about China and the open field in front of them. I will say, again on a hunch, that AAPL will go higher at the expense of all or most of FANG. It may not play out but it makes sense to me at least. I would also support moving towards a total iOS Unit number/IB(Rogifan) instead of granular breakdowns as well as a willingness to defend the stock when sh!t starts getting thrown by outsiders. It promises to be an interesting Tuesday afternoon!