June-quarter iPhone shipments likely to disappoint on Wall Street, analysts say

AppleInsider

Apple's iPhone sales are likely to remain soft through the June quarter, on top of a decline already expected for the March quarter, analysts with Rosenblatt Securities and UBS indicated on Tuesday.

Previous concerns about Apple cutting orders have been justified, said Rosenblatt's Jun Zhang in an investor memo seen by AppleInsider. This is allegedly backed by supply chain sources, Apple's recent guidance, and various news reports. One of the reports is presumably a Friday story by Nikkei, which indicated that Apple is encountering "sluggish" iPhone 6s sales which won't be compensated for by the iPhone SE, launched in March.

"We believe the market is too focused on iPhone SE's initial sell-in and over- looked the iPhone 6s sell-through," Zhang wrote. 6s sales have allegedly been trending downwards month-over-month in March and April, which is said to back the idea of a production cut in the June quarter, and be consistent with previous Rosenblatt notes on a 4 million unit production cut.

Both Zhang and UBS analyst Steve Milunovich cited weak performance by Apple processor supplier TSMC as another sign of iPhone orders.

Milunovich noted that UBS is raising its iPhone forecast for the June quarter from 42 million units to 48 million -- over the 44 million Wall Street consensus -- but warned that the firm's prediction could be too high. On top of TSMC, other Apple suppliers like Largan are said to be pointing downwards.

The analyst is maintaining a "Buy" rating for Apple stock with a $120 price target, anticipating June quarter revenues of $49.5 billion, above a $47.6 billion consensus. Zhang is offering a "Neutral" evaluation but no estimates for the current quarter.

Apple's results call for the March quarter is scheduled for Monday, April 25 at 2 p.m. Pacific, 5 p.m. Eastern. The company has already guided to a year-over-year decline in iPhone sales, its first ever.

wonkothesane

I stopped reading after "UBS". They never liked APPL. Maybe because Apple caused a dent in the holy watch market?

foggyhill

Soft compared to what? The record breaking surprise quarter last year that way out into left field and no one had right?

That's the ridiculous thing about all this. Apple is punished for its mega success.
If they had a meh quarter last year like it's usual for the summer one, they'd likely be growing this year.

ceek74

Geez, too bad Apple doesn't make anything besides iPhones.

Rayz2016

sog35 said:

I'm not going to waste anymore time on Wall Street bullshit.

If only that were true…

ericthehalfbee

Meh. There will come a point where iPhone sales will no longer continue to grow every quarter. We're probably getting close right now.

At which point Apple will have to "settle" for only selling 250 million iPhones every year to upgraders and "sufffer" with the $150 billion or so in revenue they will generate. Apple is doomed.

fallenjt

keep trashing and I'll by 100 more shares when AAPL drops below $100.

wonkothesane

WallSt. 1984: "don't bother. These hippies are just a one trick pony."

WallSt. 1998: "ok. Two trick pony. But still - don't bother."

WallSt. 2007: "well then. Three trick. Won't you finally frickin go down? You're like the bumblebee refusing to acknowledge it cannot fly. Spare us all the embarrassment and die pls."

WallSt. 2010: "ah, still alive? That doesn't even count as a full trick. So everybody don't bother. Still a few-trick-soon-ending pony"

WallSt. 2016: "I will show you I'm right. No matter how much money you make I will find a twist to sell it as your final epic fail"


TBC



Oh, and in the meantime certain people milked the same story over and over again successfully bolstering their bank account. 

omalansky

The only word those greedy morons on Wall Street understand is "More!" Pathetic.

512ke

I am an Apple Believer but as a shareholder I'm a bit worried about the iPhone market. I mean, iPads got to the point where they last a long time, and people aren't really compelled to upgrade them very often. We may be reaching that point with smartphones. The 7 better have a compelling reason to upgrade, beyond Even More Thinness.

NY1822

So UBS is saying iPhone sales to remain soft for June quarter, but yet they are raising their forecast for June from 42 million units to 48 million units (with Wall St Consesus at 44 million). 
This is the best line: "but warned the firm's prediction might be too high"
    they are down, wait no, they are up, but wait, they might be up, but maybe not, so they will be up more than than most think, but we might be wrong.....can't make this crap up

dysamoria

sog35 said:

Apple needs to go private.

I'm not going to waste anymore time on Wall Street bullshit.

That was what I came here to say, too. Wall Street is the worst thing in American capitalism.

Wall Street can bite my shiny metal ass. 

foggyhill

NY1822 said:

So UBS is saying iPhone sales to remain soft for June quarter, but yet they are raising their forecast for June from 42 million units to 48 million units (with Wall St Consesus at 44 million). 
This is the best line: "but warned the firm's prediction might be too high"
    they are down, wait no, they are up, but wait, they might be up, but maybe not, so they will be up more than than most think, but we might be wrong.....can't make this crap up

They mean probably soft compared to last year, but last year's sale took everyone by surprise, even Apple.
The sales are not soft if you discount this massive unforeseen blip.

josu

foggyhill said:

NY1822 said:

So UBS is saying iPhone sales to remain soft for June quarter, but yet they are raising their forecast for June from 42 million units to 48 million units (with Wall St Consesus at 44 million). 
This is the best line: "but warned the firm's prediction might be too high"
    they are down, wait no, they are up, but wait, they might be up, but maybe not, so they will be up more than than most think, but we might be wrong.....can't make this crap up

They mean probably soft compared to last year, but last year's sale took everyone by surprise, even Apple.
The sales are not soft if you discount this massive unforeseen blip.

Given that WS consensus is forecasting a drop in sales and shipments anyway, where is the smoke that indicates a worrying decline, the consensus is more than three million units lower sales than last year and around two billion less in revenue.

lkrupp

ericthehalfbee said:

Meh. There will come a point where iPhone sales will no longer continue to grow every quarter. We're probably getting close right now.

At which point Apple will have to "settle" for only selling 250 million iPhones every year to upgraders and "sufffer" with the $150 billion or so in revenue they will generate. Apple is doomed.

We need to get our heads around the disconnect between Apple the company and AAPL the stock. There are lots of successful companies who make lots of money but whose stock is not favored by Wall Street because they are not growing at the rate investors think they should be. I think Apple is slowly becoming a value stock rather than a growth stock. In other words it’s becoming a bluechip like AT&T, whose stock price trades in a very narrow range but lots of people own it because it pays good dividends and is reliable, not much of a gamble. It’s utter nonsense to believe that Apple or AAPL is on the brink of collapse and only the stupid would even entertain such an idea. But never underestimate the stupidity of iHaters and Fandroids.

josu

lkrupp said:

ericthehalfbee said:

Meh. There will come a point where iPhone sales will no longer continue to grow every quarter. We're probably getting close right now.

At which point Apple will have to "settle" for only selling 250 million iPhones every year to upgraders and "sufffer" with the $150 billion or so in revenue they will generate. Apple is doomed.

We need to get our heads around the disconnect between Apple the company and AAPL the stock. There are lots of successful companies who make lots of money but whose stock is not favored by Wall Street because they are not growing at the rate investors think they should be. I think Apple is slowly becoming a value stock rather than a growth stock. In other words it’s becoming a bluechip like AT&T, whose stock price trades in a very narrow range but lots of people own it because it pays good dividends and is reliable, not much of a gamble. It’s utter nonsense to believe that Apple or AAPL is on the brink of collapse and only the stupid would even entertain such an idea. But never underestimate the stupidity of iHaters and Fandroids.

Well that process is well underway since last year listing in the DJIA. The companies there are all viewed mostly as value stocks. That don't means that those stocks not get to all time high stock values, GM higher value was in 2000. Anyway the stock has got a good run nearly non-stop from the bottom at the beginning of the year to more than 110, so it needs a pull-back to resume its growth. If the stock right now is over the 200 moving average there is a leg up. If the stock is still below the 200 moving average, and given that have crashed with the downtrend line it could be a pull-back or maybe a follow up of a long term downtrend. But to me to be this last case Apple must give a very bad June quarter guidance. Much lower than consensus forecasts. If the guidance is higher than the consensus, there could be a breaking of the downtrend line and another leg uo for the stock. On Monday we will know...

All this even if iPhone 6s sales are cut or not. There is life in Apple beyond the iPhone Wall Street wants to see it or not, and we don't know for sure how much services have grow this quarter, or how much can growth next. It seems that Apple Music is adding around a million subscribers every month right now is 13 million, so at this rate it could be more or less 22 million at the end of the year.

quadra 610

Here we go again.

  

hentaiboy

sog35 said:

Apple needs to go private.

I'm not going to waste anymore time on Wall Street bullshit.

sog35 said:

If this goes to $95-$100 I'm loading up

Make your mind up

Reasonable907

Yes, darn that massive influx of investor dollars. The long and the short of it is: AAPL is worth whatever the market says it is worth, and so far the market hasn't exactly been impressed with what it's seen lately. Apple is a solid performer and in no danger of crashing (we all know that, so please, enough with the "Apple is doomed" sarcasm. It wasn't funny three years ago, it's less so now) but the market gauges success on growth, not maintenance. Perhaps Apple is a victim of it's own success and there is very little room to grow at this point. Perhaps they are a victim of their own past ingenuity, and the market is waiting for them to launch the next big "One More Thing." In today's market, Apple has become "consistent," and while consistent is good, consistent is also McDonalds. Why do we still get the occasional Quarter Pounder because we know what to expect, and frankly, that's what post-Steve Jobs Apple has become. Again, not a bad thing as far as business goes, just further proof that we need to accept the days of Earth-shaking reality-altering announcements and sales numbers are gone, and here we find ourselves, computing in the sweet hereafter. 

slurpy

Wall Street is a much bigger disappointment than Apple could ever be. Maybe these people should step back and try to figure out why the fuck they're wrong about everything, instead of predicting how much Apple will disappoint every quarter. 

foggyhill

josu said:

foggyhill said:

They mean probably soft compared to last year, but last year's sale took everyone by surprise, even Apple.
The sales are not soft if you discount this massive unforeseen blip.

Given that WS consensus is forecasting a drop in sales and shipments anyway, where is the smoke that indicates a worrying decline, the consensus is more than three million units lower sales than last year and around two billion less in revenue.

Did you actually read what I wrote. I don't think so.
Last year was off the chart, no one predicted, sales.
It even surpassed Apple's own guidance and certainly what anyone else was predicting.

So, that this year would be lower than that is almost expected. Yet. you basically , just doddered the Wall street echo.

Wall Street is NEVER IMPRESSED, or they would have had a much higher PE ratio 2 years ago .

Basically, for Wall Street, the bottom has been dropping out almost for even year of the last 15 years....
If it wasn't the case, the PE ratio would actually be more than a grocery store...

Stock price went up, but much much less than other tech firms with similar growth (or a lot less growth...) over the last 15 years.