Supply chain predicts 2017 MacBook sales will top 15M thanks to recent refresh, Kaby Lake ...

Posted:
in Future Apple Hardware edited January 17
Analysts from the supply chain are predicting that sales of Apple's portable MacBook and MacBook Pro lines will exceed 15 million in 2017, on the strength of sales of the 2016 MacBook Pro, and improvements to the line with the Kaby Lake processor and possibly 32GB of RAM later in the year.




According to the Chinese language Economic Daily News, sales year-over-year of the MacBook and MacBook Pro will grow 10 percent. The publication is also expecting to see a decrease in the price of the 13-inch MacBook Pro without Touch Bar, and predicts that it will replace the 13-inch MacBook Air in Apple's product lineup.

Part of the estimates are based on KGI Securities Ming-Chi Kuo prediction on Monday that Kaby Lake-based 13- and 15-inch MacBook Pros would start mass construction in the early third quarter. Intel Kaby Lake processors suitable for the MacBook Pro weren't even detailed by Intel until the 2017 Consumer Electronics Show earlier in January.

The Kaby Lake processors replacing roughly equivalent Skylake chips in the 2016 MacBook Pro aren't significantly faster, but do consume less power for the slightly improved performance.

The apparently sought-after 32GB version of any new MacBook Pro would necessitate a different kind of RAM other than the LPDDR3 currently used, and would require a more power-hungry RAM controller. Mass production of a 15-inch MacBook Pro is not likely to start production until the fourth calendar quarter, according to KGI.

In October, KGI Securities predicted tepid demand for the new MacBook Pro because of pricing.

it is not clear where KGI securities or the Economic Daily News have sourced the report, but both have a decent track record of predictions regarding general timetables of Apple's upgrade plans, if not the specifications of them.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 15
    wood1208wood1208 Posts: 1,001member
    Possible but wonder if refresh with kabylake is coming in 4Q17 than how much positive impact it can have ? If Apple wants to sell lots of Macbook Pro than pay attention lower end mackbook pro without touch strip. Add extra power and have consistence USB Type-C ports across the board. Off course bit lower price on lower end Macbook pro can move lots of MBP.
    edited January 17
  • Reply 2 of 15
    wood1208 said:
    Possible but wonder if refresh with kabylake is coming in 4Q17 than how much positive impact it can have ?
    A simple refresh to kaby lake only interests those that wait for shiny new things.... even when there is no real improvements for your average user :smile: 

    watto_cobra
  • Reply 3 of 15

    The apparently sought-after 32GB version of any new MacBook Pro would necessitate a different kind of RAM other than the LPDDR3 currently used, and would require a more power-hungry RAM controller. Mass production of a 15-inch MacBook Pro is not likely to start production until the fourth calendar quarter, according to KGI.
    It might be a mistake to assume that because the currently released Kaby Lake chips cannot support 32GB of LDDR3 memory that there will not be one in development for uses by Apple in the fall.  I would bet it would be slightly more likely than Apple using desktop memory.
    tmay
  • Reply 4 of 15
    bkkcanuck said:

    The apparently sought-after 32GB version of any new MacBook Pro would necessitate a different kind of RAM other than the LPDDR3 currently used, and would require a more power-hungry RAM controller. Mass production of a 15-inch MacBook Pro is not likely to start production until the fourth calendar quarter, according to KGI.
    It might be a mistake to assume that because the currently released Kaby Lake chips cannot support 32GB of LDDR3 memory that there will not be one in development for uses by Apple in the fall.  I would bet it would be slightly more likely than Apple using desktop memory.
    The LPDDR3 spec doesn't allow for more than 16GB of RAM. LPDDR4 allows for more, but LPDDR4 isn't supported in KL. So, for more than 16GB of RAM, Apple's got to use a different kind of RAM or come up with some sort of wacky RAM controller.
    edited January 17 watto_cobra
  • Reply 5 of 15
    blastdoorblastdoor Posts: 1,610member
    Sure... if Apple can update Mac hardware at the same pace as the rest of the industry, then Mac sales growth is a no brainer. That's because the macOS guys are doing their jobs -- they're delivering regular updates. The hardware side needs to catch up. 
  • Reply 6 of 15
    netroxnetrox Posts: 389member
    I am thinking that if the MacBook Pro is plugged in, it will use all RAM but if it's not plugged, it will simply use the first 16 GB that is power efficient. I think that is certainly something pros can accept.
    canukstormavon b7watto_cobra
  • Reply 7 of 15
    People who are pooh-poohing the Kaby Lake offering no clock improvements are predicting the wrong thing.  The new Kaby Lakes support Optane.  What if that were to appear in macs in 2017 ?
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 8 of 15
    People who are pooh-poohing the Kaby Lake offering no clock improvements are predicting the wrong thing.  The new Kaby Lakes support Optane.  What if that were to appear in macs in 2017 ?
    By the time Optane is ready for use other than maybe a 16GB or 32GB cache.... the next generation processor is going to be out.... so it would be stupid to base the decision to upgrade to Kaby Lake because it supports Optane now....  got all hyped up years ago about Optane, but it was all vapourware so far :open_mouth: 
  • Reply 9 of 15
    bkkcanuck said:

    The apparently sought-after 32GB version of any new MacBook Pro would necessitate a different kind of RAM other than the LPDDR3 currently used, and would require a more power-hungry RAM controller. Mass production of a 15-inch MacBook Pro is not likely to start production until the fourth calendar quarter, according to KGI.
    It might be a mistake to assume that because the currently released Kaby Lake chips cannot support 32GB of LDDR3 memory that there will not be one in development for uses by Apple in the fall.  I would bet it would be slightly more likely than Apple using desktop memory.
    The LPDDR3 spec doesn't allow for more than 16GB of RAM. LPDDR4 allows for more, but LPDDR4 isn't supported in KL. So, for more than 16GB of RAM, Apple's got to use a different kind of RAM or come up with some sort of wacky RAM controller.
    Sorry if I was not clear, just because the current Kaby Lake processor does not support more than 16GB of laptop spec'd RAM does not mean that a processor won't be one by the time Apple releases an update in the Autumn (if the rumours are correct).  Apple does have more negotiating power at this point than in the last few years -- which means it would not be more likely that Intel makes a Kaby Lake chip that can support 32GB than it would be for Apple to come up with a fancy non-standard memory controller or use desktop RAM (power hungry) in any laptop.  It was widely expected that Kaby lake would support it, it might just be the first set of released Kaby lake were released because the upgraded memory controller Kaby Lake was not ready yet.
  • Reply 10 of 15
    netroxnetrox Posts: 389member
    Optane technology seems certain and will likely use it for RAM cache.

    http://www.anandtech.com/show/10932/kaby-lake-systems-with-intel-optane-ssds-coming-soon
  • Reply 11 of 15
    bkkcanuck said:
    bkkcanuck said:

    The apparently sought-after 32GB version of any new MacBook Pro would necessitate a different kind of RAM other than the LPDDR3 currently used, and would require a more power-hungry RAM controller. Mass production of a 15-inch MacBook Pro is not likely to start production until the fourth calendar quarter, according to KGI.
    It might be a mistake to assume that because the currently released Kaby Lake chips cannot support 32GB of LDDR3 memory that there will not be one in development for uses by Apple in the fall.  I would bet it would be slightly more likely than Apple using desktop memory.
    The LPDDR3 spec doesn't allow for more than 16GB of RAM. LPDDR4 allows for more, but LPDDR4 isn't supported in KL. So, for more than 16GB of RAM, Apple's got to use a different kind of RAM or come up with some sort of wacky RAM controller.
    Sorry if I was not clear, just because the current Kaby Lake processor does not support more than 16GB of laptop spec'd RAM does not mean that a processor won't be one by the time Apple releases an update in the Autumn (if the rumours are correct).  Apple does have more negotiating power at this point than in the last few years -- which means it would not be more likely that Intel makes a Kaby Lake chip that can support 32GB than it would be for Apple to come up with a fancy non-standard memory controller or use desktop RAM (power hungry) in any laptop.  It was widely expected that Kaby lake would support it, it might just be the first set of released Kaby lake were released because the upgraded memory controller Kaby Lake was not ready yet.
    Still not. The LPDDR3 limitation is the architectural limitation of the memory technology, and the limit has zero to do with KL. KL doesn't support LPDDR4 which can go to 64GB, IIRC.

    Intel's not going to modify either the LPDDR3 spec, nor the underpinnings of KL to support it, when the generation after KL, Cannonlake will support LPDDR4. As with KL's slow release, quad-core chips from Cannonlake will probably see the light of day at this time next year if not later.
    edited January 17
  • Reply 12 of 15
    ksecksec Posts: 1,258member
    bkkcanuck said:

    The apparently sought-after 32GB version of any new MacBook Pro would necessitate a different kind of RAM other than the LPDDR3 currently used, and would require a more power-hungry RAM controller. Mass production of a 15-inch MacBook Pro is not likely to start production until the fourth calendar quarter, according to KGI.
    It might be a mistake to assume that because the currently released Kaby Lake chips cannot support 32GB of LDDR3 memory that there will not be one in development for uses by Apple in the fall.  I would bet it would be slightly more likely than Apple using desktop memory.
    The LPDDR3 spec doesn't allow for more than 16GB of RAM. LPDDR4 allows for more, but LPDDR4 isn't supported in KL. So, for more than 16GB of RAM, Apple's got to use a different kind of RAM or come up with some sort of wacky RAM controller.
    1. Intel could still make a small update for their CPU, the lacking support of LPDDR4 is purely artifical because Intel has already shipped Atom SoC with LPDDR4 support.
    2. There isn't a DDR4L Spec. And most memory manufacture have no plan to produce it in 2017.
    3. I ponder on switching to AMD, but AMD CPU just make Zero sense on Notebook / Laptop. For Desktop it has a strong case, on Laptop Intel still make the best.

    So i am thinking this is the return of 17" Macbook Pro. With the huge space for battery, those DDR4 memory energy usage wouldn't be a problem. 
  • Reply 13 of 15
    I wish Mac Pro comes back.
  • Reply 14 of 15
    hmmhmm Posts: 3,400member
    I wish Mac Pro comes back.
    I wouldn't count on it. They skipped 2 cpu generations and kept the same gpu. Updating once every 4 or more years isn't a very good sign. It no longer impacts me though.
  • Reply 15 of 15
    nhtnht Posts: 3,417member
    People who are pooh-poohing the Kaby Lake offering no clock improvements are predicting the wrong thing.  The new Kaby Lakes support Optane.  What if that were to appear in macs in 2017 ?
    I guess that depends on how IO bound you are and how they end up using it. 

    They can make returning from standby and boot much faster and the system would feel teh snappier with 16GB for standby and 16GB for OS (assume Apple goes with the 32GB module expected this year).

    Alternatively it could be used as part of a Fusion Drive of 32 GB Optane+SSD.

    10X faster storage is pretty cool but the real paradigm shift will occur when it's 128GB+ and replaces both RAM and Storage (with a small amount of RAM for caching).  That's likely a few years out.

    Speed shift V2 would likely have more impact on teh snappy if Apple writes speed shift support into MacOS.  That would allow the CPU to ramp to max in 10-20ms for activities that are spiky in nature (some types of web browsing for example).


    edited February 5
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