Trump Administration's impact on jobs

Posted:
in PoliticalOutsider
Despite Trump's focus on increasing jobs via, "Buy American.  Hire American", I fear the opposite will happen.

Our isolationist policies will anger other countries, and they will retaliate with a "Do NOT buy American" stance.  Without orders, US firms will have to reduce their workforces.


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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 40
    flaneurflaneur Posts: 4,346member
    Apple in particular is threatened by such policies from the Bannon-Trump administration, because no other company has had to draw so much on the supplies and skills of the entire world for their manufacturing.

    Now it happens just when Apple is going to be reorganizing their strategies based on their new headquarters and its staffing needs. Their personnel requirements are going to expand, and the available talent pool should not be based on an isolationist, captive, second-class American roster. Much of the most advanced production engineering in consumer electronics, for example, now resides in Asia. 
  • Reply 2 of 40
    There are a number of possible outcomes. Let me look at one of these.

    If you look at the present situation you have a whole lot of H1B's earning money in the USA and spending some of it there on Food, housing and all the rest.
    If you remove the H1B's is there enough skilled Americans to take their place?
    Their rates are sure to increase due to a shortage. This in turn costs the American company more money.
    So they look at the returns on their investment and say, 'Hey guys, if we move the entire team to India or Malaysia or wherever our costs will be 50% lower than doing the same work here in the USA. The stockholders will love it.'

    So not only are the H1B jobs gone, there will be less Americans employed in the company. The local economy will suffer as less $$$ are spent locally and so it goes on.
    Eventually, the company decides that because 60% of their sales are made overseas, they would be better off moving the whole thing abroad.
    No taxes to Uncle Sam, less employment and money in the local economy.
    The USA has hundreds if not thousands of towns that boomed and went bust as the RR or some other industry moved on to pastures new.
    See it gets worse.

    Any MBA from a reputable college would know this.
    It is a pity that the PHB's don't get it.

    Only one possible scenario but one that I have experienced at first hand in the late 1990's.

  • Reply 3 of 40
     'Hey guys, if we move the entire team to India or Malaysia or wherever our costs will be 50% lower than doing the same work here in the USA. The stockholders will love it.'
    Trump has stated on several occasions that companies that chose to move operations outside of the U.S. will pay a steep economic price (additional tariffs or tax burdens, who knows?). That is what he believes will keep companies from leaving. I'm not saying I agree with his strategies, or that they will work, I just wanted to point that out.
  • Reply 4 of 40
    Should be a de facto requirement that foreign businesses who want access to US markets must manufacture, assemble or hire US workers. This same requirement is applied to US businesses everywhere they go in the world. There's no such thing as actual free trade because in reality, politics prevents things from happening more often than making them happen!
    edited January 30
  • Reply 5 of 40
    k2kwk2kw Posts: 518member
    There are a number of possible outcomes. Let me look at one of these.

    If you look at the present situation you have a whole lot of H1B's earning money in the USA and spending some of it there on Food, housing and all the rest.
    If you remove the H1B's is there enough skilled Americans to take their place?
    Their rates are sure to increase due to a shortage. This in turn costs the American company more money.
    So they look at the returns on their investment and say, 'Hey guys, if we move the entire team to India or Malaysia or wherever our costs will be 50% lower than doing the same work here in the USA. The stockholders will love it.'

    So not only are the H1B jobs gone, there will be less Americans employed in the company. The local economy will suffer as less $$$ are spent locally and so it goes on.
    Eventually, the company decides that because 60% of their sales are made overseas, they would be better off moving the whole thing abroad.
    No taxes to Uncle Sam, less employment and money in the local economy.
    The USA has hundreds if not thousands of towns that boomed and went bust as the RR or some other industry moved on to pastures new.
    See it gets worse.

    Any MBA from a reputable college would know this.
    It is a pity that the PHB's don't get it.

    Only one possible scenario but one that I have experienced at first hand in the late 1990's.

    But the railroads didn't go out of business because they couldn't hire conductors from India, China, England, or any other place.  Railroads changed to freight as passenger traffic moved to car and plane.

    In terms of taxes American programmers probably would be paid more and pay more in taxes.
  • Reply 6 of 40
    Our isolationist policies will anger other countries, and they will retaliate with...
    They’ll retaliate with their own protectionism and the world will be made whole again. They can scream all they want, but they’ll be drowned out by the cheers of their own people, counting their newfound riches. The world needs us. As we go, so do they. The administration is actively working to destroy the EU. We’re going to fix the last century’s worth of wrongs. It’s going to be glorious.
  • Reply 7 of 40
    buccibucci Posts: 100member
    Despite Trump's focus on increasing jobs via, "Buy American.  Hire American", I fear the opposite will happen.

    Our isolationist policies will anger other countries, and they will retaliate with a "Do NOT buy American" stance.  Without orders, US firms will have to reduce their workforces.


    The "do not buy American" stance will be enforced in other countries by tariffs on US goods. US companies will feel the loss of revenue and to keep investors happy, will cut staff and increase prices. Fewer jobs and less buying power for the American public. 
    edited February 2
  • Reply 8 of 40
    volcanvolcan Posts: 1,219member
    tallest skil said:
    We’re going to fix the last century’s worth of wrongs. It’s going to be glorious.
    The GOP has traditionally supported protectionism and economic nationalism since its founding and during much of that time, GOP control was more the rule than the exception. It wasn't until Reagan came into office that the notion of free trade began to be supported by the GOP.  Until Trump's election the GOP mantra has been Reagan economics and free trade. They are reluctantly supporting Trump's tariff plan now, but only for the sake of party unity.

    After the civil war GOP protectionism was directed at Britain with its much more advanced manufacturing which the GOP felt threatened smaller American business start ups. Although there was rapid economic expansion at the time, it was not really attributable to protectionism. It was fueled by US population and industrial growth along with the European decimation after WWI. Ultimately with the GOP in control, the US fell into the great depression.

    Now things are eerily similar except the threat is from China with its massive manufacturing infrastructure, far out pacing the US's capabilities. Protectionism didn't work out last century and it probably won't this century either with a high likelihood that it will lead to another economic crisis. I seriously doubt it will be glorious for the US or our current trading partners.
    edited February 2 crowleybuccifrac
  • Reply 9 of 40
    maestro64maestro64 Posts: 3,315member
    Despite Trump's focus on increasing jobs via, "Buy American.  Hire American", I fear the opposite will happen.

    Our isolationist policies will anger other countries, and they will retaliate with a "Do NOT buy American" stance.  Without orders, US firms will have to reduce their workforces.



    Do you know most countries depend on US consumers buying their products. If these countries do not start buying US made goods and services without requiring US companies to operate in their own boarders they have for more to loose than the US. If consumers in the US can not buy something made in another country there will be people and companies who will be happy to fill the demand in the US. The US has the resources, knowledge and ability to make anything it wants. Others counties economies are depended on the US more than we depend on their consumers to by our products.

    I am not saying Buy American will not have a less than positive impact nor am I saying this is the only solution. While the US tends to play more fairly, the trading partners tend not to play by the same rules and Trump is just calling them on the carpet.

    These other countries need to stop putting VAT on US good and services and need to work toward a balance in the trade.

    jbdragon
  • Reply 10 of 40
    maestro64maestro64 Posts: 3,315member
    bucci said:
    Despite Trump's focus on increasing jobs via, "Buy American.  Hire American", I fear the opposite will happen.

    Our isolationist policies will anger other countries, and they will retaliate with a "Do NOT buy American" stance.  Without orders, US firms will have to reduce their workforces.


    The "do not buy American" stance will be enforced in other countries by tariffs on US goods. US companies will feel the loss of revenue and to keep investors happy, will cut staff and increase prices. Fewer jobs and less buying power for the American public. 
    Most the trade deals Tariffs are not allowed, these are fee paid at the port of entry. Most countries including Mexico has a VAT which is put on US goods at time of purchase at the cash register. These are method which other country use to collect money on goods from outside the country. Yes in the US we have sales taxes at the state and local level and those help cover the cost of government service that promote commerce like roads and infrastructure (I know the government spend it elsewhere) and these taxes are on everything, and do not vary by country of origin. Now it the US put a VAT which would be know as national sales taxes and this has been talked about and did it based on country of origin what do you think would happen.
    jbdragon
  • Reply 11 of 40
    volcan said:
    After the civil war GOP protectionism was directed at Britain with its much more advanced manufacturing which the GOP felt threatened smaller American business start ups.
    Well, that and the British funding of the Confederacy.
    Ultimately with the GOP in control, the US fell into the great depression.
    Yeah, the Federal Reserve sure had fuck all to do with that.
    Protectionism didn't work out last century



    Globalism destroys currencies.
    and it probably won't this century either with a high likelihood that it will lead to another economic crisis.
    The Fed existing is what will cause the crisis. It will be blamed on France leaving the EU and Eurozone (and Britain leaving the EU), but history will remember otherwise.
    jbdragon
  • Reply 12 of 40
    volcanvolcan Posts: 1,219member
    tallest skil said
    The Fed existing is what will cause the crisis. 
    Not sure how that relates to the topic of tariff and protectionism and I haven't read anything about Trump's stance on the Fed.

    Many Trump supporters from the Midwest are not very well versed in international trade. They just bought into his tretoric of bringing jobs back to America.

    The supporters being mostly from the Midwest should know that as much as 30% of US agricultural products such as wheat, soybeans, cotton and pork bellies are exported to China. If Trump starts a trade war these farmers will go bankrupt since they have borrowed heavily to increase their production to service the China market.

    These Midwest supporters unknowingly voted in someone who ironically may actually take their jobs away.
    edited February 3
  • Reply 13 of 40
    buccibucci Posts: 100member
    maestro64 said:
    bucci said:
    Despite Trump's focus on increasing jobs via, "Buy American.  Hire American", I fear the opposite will happen.

    Our isolationist policies will anger other countries, and they will retaliate with a "Do NOT buy American" stance.  Without orders, US firms will have to reduce their workforces.


    The "do not buy American" stance will be enforced in other countries by tariffs on US goods. US companies will feel the loss of revenue and to keep investors happy, will cut staff and increase prices. Fewer jobs and less buying power for the American public. 
    Most the trade deals Tariffs are not allowed, these are fee paid at the port of entry. Most countries including Mexico has a VAT which is put on US goods at time of purchase at the cash register. These are method which other country use to collect money on goods from outside the country. Yes in the US we have sales taxes at the state and local level and those help cover the cost of government service that promote commerce like roads and infrastructure (I know the government spend it elsewhere) and these taxes are on everything, and do not vary by country of origin. Now it the US put a VAT which would be know as national sales taxes and this has been talked about and did it based on country of origin what do you think would happen.
    If Trump starts levying tariffs, other countries will follow suit with similar tariffs or non-monetary trade barriers. Adding a VAT only hurts the majority of US citizens by reducing their buying power.  

    Either way, it's not good. 
  • Reply 14 of 40
    buccibucci Posts: 100member
    maestro64 said:
    Despite Trump's focus on increasing jobs via, "Buy American.  Hire American", I fear the opposite will happen.

    Our isolationist policies will anger other countries, and they will retaliate with a "Do NOT buy American" stance.  Without orders, US firms will have to reduce their workforces.



    Do you know most countries depend on US consumers buying their products. If these countries do not start buying US made goods and services without requiring US companies to operate in their own boarders they have for more to loose than the US. If consumers in the US can not buy something made in another country there will be people and companies who will be happy to fill the demand in the US. The US has the resources, knowledge and ability to make anything it wants. Others counties economies are depended on the US more than we depend on their consumers to by our products.

    I am not saying Buy American will not have a less than positive impact nor am I saying this is the only solution. While the US tends to play more fairly, the trading partners tend not to play by the same rules and Trump is just calling them on the carpet.

    These other countries need to stop putting VAT on US good and services and need to work toward a balance in the trade.

    If this was several decades ago, I would agree. However, where we have retreated in the global market, China has seen the opportunity to move in and fill the void. They have the manufacturing capability and market size. 

    And I have to disagree about manufacturing returning to the US. The US no longer has the knowledge to make anything it wants. For example, replicating iPhone production in the US would be difficult because the work force is not familiar with it. It's possible but would take years, and considerable cost that would be passed on to consumers.  
  • Reply 15 of 40
    VAT is a Sales TAX operated at a national level. Here in the EU it applies to goods sold to the end user (the consumer). It is applied no matter where the goods or services come from. The price you see on the shelf is the price you pay unlike the USA.
    Making an exception for stuff coming from the USA would be illegal.

    frac
  • Reply 16 of 40
    larz2112 said:
     'Hey guys, if we move the entire team to India or Malaysia or wherever our costs will be 50% lower than doing the same work here in the USA. The stockholders will love it.'
    Trump has stated on several occasions that companies that chose to move operations outside of the U.S. will pay a steep economic price (additional tariffs or tax burdens, who knows?). That is what he believes will keep companies from leaving. I'm not saying I agree with his strategies, or that they will work, I just wanted to point that out.
    Of Apple or any other company moves a team abroad they don't have to brief Trump on it.
  • Reply 17 of 40
    k2kwk2kw Posts: 518member
    bucci said:
    And I have to disagree about manufacturing returning to the US. The US no longer has the knowledge to make anything it wants. For example, replicating iPhone production in the US would be difficult because the work force is not familiar with it. It's possible but would take years, and considerable cost that would be passed on to consumers.  
    The biggest reason manufacturing went over to China was because it was so much cheaper.    If higher tariffs increases the cost of products, Apple and other countries will find a way to bring manufacturing back to the USA.

    Tech companies have been paying off the Democratic Party (and some republicans to a lesser extent) in order to get H1B visas.    They run around saying they support Diversity and helping illegal aliens, but this is just about money / the cost of hiring talent.    Same reason Apple, Google, etc.  colluded several years ago to keep salaries down by not hiring each others workers.

    We will see if Trump will follow through on his promises.
    jbdragon
  • Reply 18 of 40
    k2kw said:
    bucci said:
    And I have to disagree about manufacturing returning to the US. The US no longer has the knowledge to make anything it wants. For example, replicating iPhone production in the US would be difficult because the work force is not familiar with it. It's possible but would take years, and considerable cost that would be passed on to consumers.  
    The biggest reason manufacturing went over to China was because it was so much cheaper.    If higher tariffs increases the cost of products, Apple and other countries will find a way to bring manufacturing back to the USA.

    Tech companies have been paying off the Democratic Party (and some republicans to a lesser extent) in order to get H1B visas.    They run around saying they support Diversity and helping illegal aliens, but this is just about money / the cost of hiring talent.    Same reason Apple, Google, etc.  colluded several years ago to keep salaries down by not hiring each others workers.

    We will see if Trump will follow through on his promises.
    Trump has followed through on every promise so far. The legal block on his travel restrictions is just a hint of the pushback yet to come from all of the corrupt entrenched interests he's taking on. Just imagine the riots that will sweep D.C. as thousands of government-fed employees are laid off.
    tallest skil
  • Reply 19 of 40
    maestro64maestro64 Posts: 3,315member
    bucci said:
    maestro64 said:
    bucci said:
    Despite Trump's focus on increasing jobs via, "Buy American.  Hire American", I fear the opposite will happen.

    Our isolationist policies will anger other countries, and they will retaliate with a "Do NOT buy American" stance.  Without orders, US firms will have to reduce their workforces.


    The "do not buy American" stance will be enforced in other countries by tariffs on US goods. US companies will feel the loss of revenue and to keep investors happy, will cut staff and increase prices. Fewer jobs and less buying power for the American public. 
    Most the trade deals Tariffs are not allowed, these are fee paid at the port of entry. Most countries including Mexico has a VAT which is put on US goods at time of purchase at the cash register. These are method which other country use to collect money on goods from outside the country. Yes in the US we have sales taxes at the state and local level and those help cover the cost of government service that promote commerce like roads and infrastructure (I know the government spend it elsewhere) and these taxes are on everything, and do not vary by country of origin. Now it the US put a VAT which would be know as national sales taxes and this has been talked about and did it based on country of origin what do you think would happen.
    If Trump starts levying tariffs, other countries will follow suit with similar tariffs or non-monetary trade barriers. Adding a VAT only hurts the majority of US citizens by reducing their buying power.  

    Either way, it's not good. 


    I do not believe Trump would put tariff in place, first it will violate so may trade treats which have been in place for a long time and only congress and change the laws. He is making threats, and the US could but in place VAT without being in violations of trade treats. What Trump is trying to do is actual get other countries to stop their taxing activities on US goods and services.

    I'll give you an example with Canada, my wife works for a software company, and they have Canadian clients, and time to time she has to visit the clients their to do consulting and training on the product. Well Canada does not allow this, well do not allow it with out a contracted they Canadian company signed and where it clearly states they her services could not be provided by someone in Canadian. Not a problem since their product is proprietary and know one by people who work for her company knows the product and services they provide. 

    China does some things which are similar. Their methods are more complicated, but in the end it meets their needs which it to make products in their countries which must leave the country for sale somewhere else. If the product which is made in china comes back in it is hit with big VAT. The only way a product which is made in china can be sold in china it must meet all kinds of requires like all the materials used in making the product must be purchase in china and if they are not bought in china they have to be bought using Chinese currency.

    It is all these games various countries play so to reduce the value of US goods and service in their country or drive up the cost so consumers will not buy it.

  • Reply 20 of 40
    maestro64 said:
    bucci said:
    maestro64 said:
    bucci said:
    Despite Trump's focus on increasing jobs via, "Buy American.  Hire American", I fear the opposite will happen.

    Our isolationist policies will anger other countries, and they will retaliate with a "Do NOT buy American" stance.  Without orders, US firms will have to reduce their workforces.


    The "do not buy American" stance will be enforced in other countries by tariffs on US goods. US companies will feel the loss of revenue and to keep investors happy, will cut staff and increase prices. Fewer jobs and less buying power for the American public. 
    Most the trade deals Tariffs are not allowed, these are fee paid at the port of entry. Most countries including Mexico has a VAT which is put on US goods at time of purchase at the cash register. These are method which other country use to collect money on goods from outside the country. Yes in the US we have sales taxes at the state and local level and those help cover the cost of government service that promote commerce like roads and infrastructure (I know the government spend it elsewhere) and these taxes are on everything, and do not vary by country of origin. Now it the US put a VAT which would be know as national sales taxes and this has been talked about and did it based on country of origin what do you think would happen.
    If Trump starts levying tariffs, other countries will follow suit with similar tariffs or non-monetary trade barriers. Adding a VAT only hurts the majority of US citizens by reducing their buying power.  

    Either way, it's not good. 


    I do not believe Trump would put tariff in place, first it will violate so may trade treats which have been in place for a long time and only congress and change the laws. He is making threats, and the US could but in place VAT without being in violations of trade treats. What Trump is trying to do is actual get other countries to stop their taxing activities on US goods and services.

    I'll give you an example with Canada, my wife works for a software company, and they have Canadian clients, and time to time she has to visit the clients their to do consulting and training on the product. Well Canada does not allow this, well do not allow it with out a contracted they Canadian company signed and where it clearly states they her services could not be provided by someone in Canadian. Not a problem since their product is proprietary and know one by people who work for her company knows the product and services they provide. 

    China does some things which are similar. Their methods are more complicated, but in the end it meets their needs which it to make products in their countries which must leave the country for sale somewhere else. If the product which is made in china comes back in it is hit with big VAT. The only way a product which is made in china can be sold in china it must meet all kinds of requires like all the materials used in making the product must be purchase in china and if they are not bought in china they have to be bought using Chinese currency.

    It is all these games various countries play so to reduce the value of US goods and service in their country or drive up the cost so consumers will not buy it.

    If China isn't going to be kicked out of the WTO, the US should leave it and renegotiate agreements on a country by country basis.
    tallest skil
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