Apple cedes ground in growing Chinese smartphone market as consumers await redesigned 'iPh...

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in iPhone
The iPhone is being overtaken in China by a raft of new locally-produced smartphone rivals, according to a new report, which shows Apple's market share dropping despite greatly increased smartphone shipments in the region.




In the fourth quarter of 2016, the Chinese smartphone market grew 18.7 percent year-on-year to 135.7 million, figures from analytics firm IDC suggest. For the full year, shipments in 2016 were up 8.7 percent to 467.3 million units, compared to 429.9 million for 2015.

It is claimed iPhone shipments in the quarter reached 14.9 million units, but in Q4 2015 the shipment volume was 17.1 million, representing a year-on-year decline of 12.8 percent. Apple's iPhone shipments to China have also reduced on a yearly basis, down from 58.4 million in 2015 to 44.9 million in 2016, a contraction of 23.2 percent.

The increased growth of the market in China means Apple's market share has also contracted, from 15 percent in Q4 2015 to 11 percent the next year. On an annual basis, Apple's moved from a market share of 13.6 percent in 2015 to 9.6 percent last year.




By comparison, local producers Oppo, Huawei, and Vivo have enjoyed increased sales in the region, with Oppo in particular enjoying quarterly year-on-year growth of 109.2 percent and annual growth of 122.2 percent.

IDC notes this marks the first time Apple saw a year-on-year decline in the Chinese smartphone market, and that while new black iPhone options received some attention in the country, the iPhone refresh "did not create as much of a frenzy compared to the past."

Despite the reduction in sales, IDC suggests the reduced market share is not down to Chinese producers becoming more successful in the region. It is believed most iPhone users are holding out for this year's iPhone, with the 10-year anniversary iPhone also expected to attract more users of high-end Android devices.

In Apple's latest financial results, revenues from Greater China decreased 12 percent year-on-year, but still brought in $16.2 billion. Apple CEO Tim Cook advised during the conference call that the weak exchange rate affected revenue, that mainland china sales were actually up by six points, and that the revenue is being compared with the all-time record of $18.4 billion set in 2016.

Also during the call, it was noted the iPhone install base grew in "strong double digits," seemingly against IDC's reported figures.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 30
    maestro64maestro64 Posts: 3,315member

    The problem is most iPhone consumers have no idea what Apple is up to, nor do they know about the so called rumors of the 10 yr anniversary phone. Most consumers are not waiting for what is next, they just not upgrading since what most everyone has does exactly what they need it to do and everything which was been made in the last 4 yrs runs the latest software and apps. Except for those who convinced themselves they need the latest phone, the rest of the world is fine with what they got.

    IDC acts as if Apple has been marketing the next phones to consumer and they are already aware of it, one thing we all know Apple does well is not tell anyone what is next.

    edited February 6 rare commentwatto_cobraavon b7
  • Reply 2 of 30

    "It is believed most iPhone users are holding out for this year's iPhone, with the 10-year anniversary iPhone also expected to attract more users of high-end Android devices. "

    Passive-voice, unattributed assertion.  It doesn't even make logical sense.  A significant proportion of "iPhone users" just upgraded to the 7 or 7 plus, so they aren't "holding out."  There's another batch of users who haven't bought an iPhone in years and haven't really thought about what's next; they aren't "holding out" either.  Therefore, I find it hard to believe that 50.0%+ of iPhone users fall in this category.

    StrangeDayssuddenly newtonrare commentwatto_cobra
  • Reply 3 of 30
    "They'll be back. They allllways come back."
    watto_cobrakudu
  • Reply 4 of 30
    calicali Posts: 2,905member
    maestro64 said:

    The problem is most iPhone consumers have no idea what Apple is up to, nor do they know about the so called rumors of the 10 yr anniversary phone. Most consumers are not waiting for what is next, they just not upgrading since what most everyone has does exactly what they need it to do and everything which was been made in the last 4 yrs runs the latest software and apps. Except for those who convinced themselves they need the latest phone, the rest of the world is find with what they got.

    IDC acts as if Apple has been marketing the next phones to consumer and they are already aware of it, one thing we all know Apple does well is not tell anyone what is next.


    Patented technology should be respected. A lot of people want an iPhone but they settle for a cheaper knockoff. I believe companies should either license or bring their own creations to the market. Now every damn phone looks like iPhone. For all we know a better solution than iPhone could have been created but people just want to steal and sell.

    Point is, it frustrates me seeing all these lost sales that belong to Apple. People talk about "profit share" but profit comes from SALES. I bet Apple loses over $100 billion a year to cheap knockoff who make less than $10 billion profit combined. 
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 5 of 30
    sog35sog35 Posts: 12,198member
    The average iPhone buyer has no idea what the next iPhone will be.

    No one is waiting. really silly thing to say.
    randominternetperson
  • Reply 6 of 30
    "They'll be back. They allllways come back."
    Not if a major war is occurring. Some people might continue to upgrade on a regular schedule, but many will hold back on "luxuries" in a time of uncertainty. 

    The chance of the U.S. sending hundreds of thousands of troops into the Middle East was probably around 10% before the U.S. election. When a Republican won the election the chances probably got pushed to 40%. Since Trump mentioned the U.S. should take Iraq's oil the chance got pushed again to 60%. If the neocon, Elliot Abrams, is hired as Assistant Secretary of State  then there is probably an 80% chance of a major U.S. involved war in the Middle East.

    I also imagine the false flag will be larger than 911 this time and precipitate a draft. This means the people between the ages of 18-30 will be fretting about going to war. Do you think these future soldiers are going to be purchasing the latest iPhone, Playstation, car, house, vacation?

    And what about the rest of the world? People in Mexico are already boycotting many American products because of Trump's rhetoric. Will consumers in Europe and China buy iPhones when the U.S. commits another folly into the Middle East? 
    kamilton
  • Reply 7 of 30
    "They'll be back. They allllways come back."
    Not if a major war is occurring. Some people might continue to upgrade on a regular schedule, but many will hold back on "luxuries" in a time of uncertainty. 

    The chance of the U.S. sending hundreds of thousands of troops into the Middle East was probably around 10% before the U.S. election. When a Republican won the election the chances probably got pushed to 40%. Since Trump mentioned the U.S. should take Iraq's oil the chance got pushed again to 60%. If the neocon, Elliot Abrams, is hired as Assistant Secretary of State  then there is probably an 80% chance of a major U.S. involved war in the Middle East.

    I also imagine the false flag will be larger than 911 this time and precipitate a draft. This means the people between the ages of 18-30 will be fretting about going to war. Do you think these future soldiers are going to be purchasing the latest iPhone, Playstation, car, house, vacation?

    And what about the rest of the world? People in Mexico are already boycotting many American products because of Trump's rhetoric. Will consumers in Europe and China buy iPhones when the U.S. commits another folly into the Middle East? 

    I'm told there is a forum elsewhere on AI for political conversations.  I suggest most of this post belongs there. 
  • Reply 8 of 30
    sog35sog35 Posts: 12,198member
    "They'll be back. They allllways come back."
    Not if a major war is occurring. Some people might continue to upgrade on a regular schedule, but many will hold back on "luxuries" in a time of uncertainty. 

    The chance of the U.S. sending hundreds of thousands of troops into the Middle East was probably around 10% before the U.S. election. When a Republican won the election the chances probably got pushed to 40%. Since Trump mentioned the U.S. should take Iraq's oil the chance got pushed again to 60%. If the neocon, Elliot Abrams, is hired as Assistant Secretary of State  then there is probably an 80% chance of a major U.S. involved war in the Middle East.

    I also imagine the false flag will be larger than 911 this time and precipitate a draft. This means the people between the ages of 18-30 will be fretting about going to war. Do you think these future soldiers are going to be purchasing the latest iPhone, Playstation, car, house, vacation?

    And what about the rest of the world? People in Mexico are already boycotting many American products because of Trump's rhetoric. Will consumers in Europe and China buy iPhones when the U.S. commits another folly into the Middle East? 
    total and utter BULLSHIT

    None of the other wars stopped iPhone growth

    Smartphones are the single most important product people use today. People won't cheap out on it anytime soon.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 9 of 30
    "They'll be back. They allllways come back."
    Not if a major war is occurring. Some people might continue to upgrade on a regular schedule, but many will hold back on "luxuries" in a time of uncertainty. 

    The chance of the U.S. sending hundreds of thousands of troops into the Middle East was probably around 10% before the U.S. election. When a Republican won the election the chances probably got pushed to 40%. Since Trump mentioned the U.S. should take Iraq's oil the chance got pushed again to 60%. If the neocon, Elliot Abrams, is hired as Assistant Secretary of State  then there is probably an 80% chance of a major U.S. involved war in the Middle East.

    I also imagine the false flag will be larger than 911 this time and precipitate a draft. This means the people between the ages of 18-30 will be fretting about going to war. Do you think these future soldiers are going to be purchasing the latest iPhone, Playstation, car, house, vacation?

    And what about the rest of the world? People in Mexico are already boycotting many American products because of Trump's rhetoric. Will consumers in Europe and China buy iPhones when the U.S. commits another folly into the Middle East? 

    I'm told there is a forum elsewhere on AI for political conversations.  I suggest most of this post belongs there. 
    This is a strategic conversation. Apple, their partners, and other U.S. companies have to prepare for this contingency.
    avon b7
  • Reply 10 of 30
    davendaven Posts: 397member
    I believe you are seeing the strengthening of nationalism around the world. The problem is that many American and other developed nation companies moved manufacturing to China en masse and now China has the manufacturing and logistics expertise and it will take years or decades to come back up to speed. The wild card is automation may rapidly level the playing field where distribution cost may counteract the low wage advantage of China.
  • Reply 11 of 30
    "They'll be back. They allllways come back."
    Not if a major war is occurring. Some people might continue to upgrade on a regular schedule, but many will hold back on "luxuries" in a time of uncertainty. 

    The chance of the U.S. sending hundreds of thousands of troops into the Middle East was probably around 10% before the U.S. election. When a Republican won the election the chances probably got pushed to 40%. Since Trump mentioned the U.S. should take Iraq's oil the chance got pushed again to 60%. If the neocon, Elliot Abrams, is hired as Assistant Secretary of State  then there is probably an 80% chance of a major U.S. involved war in the Middle East.

    I also imagine the false flag will be larger than 911 this time and precipitate a draft. This means the people between the ages of 18-30 will be fretting about going to war. Do you think these future soldiers are going to be purchasing the latest iPhone, Playstation, car, house, vacation?

    And what about the rest of the world? People in Mexico are already boycotting many American products because of Trump's rhetoric. Will consumers in Europe and China buy iPhones when the U.S. commits another folly into the Middle East? 

    I'm told there is a forum elsewhere on AI for political conversations.  I suggest most of this post belongs there. 
    This is a strategic conversation. Apple, their partners, and other U.S. companies have to prepare for this contingency.

    I'm not falling for this trap.  Yes, if the world dissolves into war, that would affect iPhone sales.  Everything else in your post is political debate that doesn't belong here.
    StrangeDays
  • Reply 12 of 30
    sog35sog35 Posts: 12,198member
    "They'll be back. They allllways come back."
    Not if a major war is occurring. Some people might continue to upgrade on a regular schedule, but many will hold back on "luxuries" in a time of uncertainty. 

    The chance of the U.S. sending hundreds of thousands of troops into the Middle East was probably around 10% before the U.S. election. When a Republican won the election the chances probably got pushed to 40%. Since Trump mentioned the U.S. should take Iraq's oil the chance got pushed again to 60%. If the neocon, Elliot Abrams, is hired as Assistant Secretary of State  then there is probably an 80% chance of a major U.S. involved war in the Middle East.

    I also imagine the false flag will be larger than 911 this time and precipitate a draft. This means the people between the ages of 18-30 will be fretting about going to war. Do you think these future soldiers are going to be purchasing the latest iPhone, Playstation, car, house, vacation?

    And what about the rest of the world? People in Mexico are already boycotting many American products because of Trump's rhetoric. Will consumers in Europe and China buy iPhones when the U.S. commits another folly into the Middle East? 

    I'm told there is a forum elsewhere on AI for political conversations.  I suggest most of this post belongs there. 
    This is a strategic conversation. Apple, their partners, and other U.S. companies have to prepare for this contingency.
    sorry dude.

    Apple just had its biggest and best quarter ever. Your fears are unwarranted.
  • Reply 13 of 30
    "They'll be back. They allllways come back."
    Not if a major war is occurring. Some people might continue to upgrade on a regular schedule, but many will hold back on "luxuries" in a time of uncertainty. 

    The chance of the U.S. sending hundreds of thousands of troops into the Middle East was probably around 10% before the U.S. election. When a Republican won the election the chances probably got pushed to 40%. Since Trump mentioned the U.S. should take Iraq's oil the chance got pushed again to 60%. If the neocon, Elliot Abrams, is hired as Assistant Secretary of State  then there is probably an 80% chance of a major U.S. involved war in the Middle East.

    I also imagine the false flag will be larger than 911 this time and precipitate a draft. This means the people between the ages of 18-30 will be fretting about going to war. Do you think these future soldiers are going to be purchasing the latest iPhone, Playstation, car, house, vacation?

    And what about the rest of the world? People in Mexico are already boycotting many American products because of Trump's rhetoric. Will consumers in Europe and China buy iPhones when the U.S. commits another folly into the Middle East? 
    Cool story bro. Never mind the fact that Trump is an isolationist, so foreign wars are less likely IMO.
  • Reply 14 of 30
    "They'll be back. They allllways come back."
    Not if a major war is occurring. Some people might continue to upgrade on a regular schedule, but many will hold back on "luxuries" in a time of uncertainty. 

    The chance of the U.S. sending hundreds of thousands of troops into the Middle East was probably around 10% before the U.S. election. When a Republican won the election the chances probably got pushed to 40%. Since Trump mentioned the U.S. should take Iraq's oil the chance got pushed again to 60%. If the neocon, Elliot Abrams, is hired as Assistant Secretary of State  then there is probably an 80% chance of a major U.S. involved war in the Middle East.

    I also imagine the false flag will be larger than 911 this time and precipitate a draft. This means the people between the ages of 18-30 will be fretting about going to war. Do you think these future soldiers are going to be purchasing the latest iPhone, Playstation, car, house, vacation?

    And what about the rest of the world? People in Mexico are already boycotting many American products because of Trump's rhetoric. Will consumers in Europe and China buy iPhones when the U.S. commits another folly into the Middle East? 
    Ridiculous wars in the Middle East won't stop the Chinese from buying iPhones. However, a major trade war initiated by Trump just might. 

    And Trump has been against committing the use of ground troops in the Middle East. That discussion, however, belongs in the political forum. 
  • Reply 15 of 30
    maestro64maestro64 Posts: 3,315member
    cali said:
    maestro64 said:

    The problem is most iPhone consumers have no idea what Apple is up to, nor do they know about the so called rumors of the 10 yr anniversary phone. Most consumers are not waiting for what is next, they just not upgrading since what most everyone has does exactly what they need it to do and everything which was been made in the last 4 yrs runs the latest software and apps. Except for those who convinced themselves they need the latest phone, the rest of the world is find with what they got.

    IDC acts as if Apple has been marketing the next phones to consumer and they are already aware of it, one thing we all know Apple does well is not tell anyone what is next.


    Patented technology should be respected. A lot of people want an iPhone but they settle for a cheaper knockoff. I believe companies should either license or bring their own creations to the market. Now every damn phone looks like iPhone. For all we know a better solution than iPhone could have been created but people just want to steal and sell.

    Point is, it frustrates me seeing all these lost sales that belong to Apple. People talk about "profit share" but profit comes from SALES. I bet Apple loses over $100 billion a year to cheap knockoff who make less than $10 billion profit combined. 

    You realize, the reason all those companies are coping what Apple is doing, they do not have money to R&D, lucky for apple they taking all the profits and leaving nothing but crumbs on the talk for all the other supplier to fight over. I do not believe Apple lost a single sale, reason being, you would have to believe every consumer would be willing to pay the higher price for an Apple. They are not, so apple lost nothing to them. Apple selling another phone at a lower profit would have not made them much more. I believe Apple is operating at a point of diminishing returns. The other thing Apple has working for them which other suppliers do not, the demand for their product is not perishable. meaning if apple does not have the right product at the right time consumers will move on to someone else's product and they loose sales. Apple fan will wait for the next product when every it shows up. Apple competitors are always losing and gaining sales depending on who has what product on the market at the time or who happens to be having a BOGO deal.

    Steve fought people who copies out of principle, Cook is not fighting since I believe is know the figure will not yield more sales since most people who buy the competitor buys solely on price. Apple is not interested in the race to the bottom. Just look at Motorola and Nokia, bit got caught in the race to the bottom trying to go after one more sale at a lower price point and burned too many resources making it happen.

    watto_cobra
  • Reply 16 of 30
    sog35 said:
    "They'll be back. They allllways come back."
    Not if a major war is occurring. Some people might continue to upgrade on a regular schedule, but many will hold back on "luxuries" in a time of uncertainty. 

    The chance of the U.S. sending hundreds of thousands of troops into the Middle East was probably around 10% before the U.S. election. When a Republican won the election the chances probably got pushed to 40%. Since Trump mentioned the U.S. should take Iraq's oil the chance got pushed again to 60%. If the neocon, Elliot Abrams, is hired as Assistant Secretary of State  then there is probably an 80% chance of a major U.S. involved war in the Middle East.

    I also imagine the false flag will be larger than 911 this time and precipitate a draft. This means the people between the ages of 18-30 will be fretting about going to war. Do you think these future soldiers are going to be purchasing the latest iPhone, Playstation, car, house, vacation?

    And what about the rest of the world? People in Mexico are already boycotting many American products because of Trump's rhetoric. Will consumers in Europe and China buy iPhones when the U.S. commits another folly into the Middle East? 

    I'm told there is a forum elsewhere on AI for political conversations.  I suggest most of this post belongs there. 
    This is a strategic conversation. Apple, their partners, and other U.S. companies have to prepare for this contingency.
    sorry dude.

    Apple just had its biggest and best quarter ever. Your fears are unwarranted.
    The 7 series are spectacular devices, and sales should of been millions more than what was achieved, especially with the Samsung debacle.

    1. iPhone sales have decreased in China over the last several quarters YoY. Obviously, Trump's negative talk about China is not helping sales there: We have all seen the smashing iPhones with bats videos and Chinese companies threatening their employees from purchasing iPhones, etc.

    2. AAPL decreased by around 20% soon after 911. It did rebound fairly quickly, but Apple was a much smaller company back then. 

    It doesn't take a genius to realize the more threatening the U.S. gets towards the rest of the world the more that sales will suffer.
  • Reply 17 of 30
    maestro64maestro64 Posts: 3,315member
    "They'll be back. They allllways come back."
    Not if a major war is occurring. Some people might continue to upgrade on a regular schedule, but many will hold back on "luxuries" in a time of uncertainty

    The chance of the U.S. sending hundreds of thousands of troops into the Middle East was probably around 10% before the U.S. election. When a Republican won the election the chances probably got pushed to 40%. Since Trump mentioned the U.S. should take Iraq's oil the chance got pushed again to 60%. If the neocon, Elliot Abrams, is hired as Assistant Secretary of State  then there is probably an 80% chance of a major U.S. involved war in the Middle East.

    I also imagine the false flag will be larger than 911 this time and precipitate a draft. This means the people between the ages of 18-30 will be fretting about going to war. Do you think these future soldiers are going to be purchasing the latest iPhone, Playstation, car, house, vacation?

    And what about the rest of the world? People in Mexico are already boycotting many American products because of Trump's rhetoric. Will consumers in Europe and China buy iPhones when the U.S. commits another folly into the Middle East? 

    True statement except I do not believe that economy factor applies to Apple. The majority of Apple consumers has more disposable income than most, people with money tend to always have money in good and bad times. Apple consumer electronic or tech company who grew its business during the economy going south in the last 15 yrs. Why? because they sold to people with money and did not care about people who could not afford their products.

    To you other points, Trump is not going to rage any war, actually part of the reason he want to shut the door on certain countries is to force them to solve their issue in their home countries instead of running away and leaving a mess there. If these people have no place to go they may turn around and begin helping themselves and their countries. I do not understand some of these people they leave their home countries for a better life and turn around and do thing in the US which they did not like in their home counties.

    Also, Mexico boycotting US Brand is stupid since most all of them are made in Mexico, if they do not buy those products they only hurt the people in Mexico, Us companies are not going to lay off US workers in the US because people in Mexico are not buying the products which are actually made in Mexico. Very little is actually made in the US and shipped south other than food products and I do not think Mexico is going to stop buying corn to prove a point to US farming companies.

  • Reply 18 of 30
    maestro64maestro64 Posts: 3,315member
    "They'll be back. They allllways come back."
    Not if a major war is occurring. Some people might continue to upgrade on a regular schedule, but many will hold back on "luxuries" in a time of uncertainty. 

    The chance of the U.S. sending hundreds of thousands of troops into the Middle East was probably around 10% before the U.S. election. When a Republican won the election the chances probably got pushed to 40%. Since Trump mentioned the U.S. should take Iraq's oil the chance got pushed again to 60%. If the neocon, Elliot Abrams, is hired as Assistant Secretary of State  then there is probably an 80% chance of a major U.S. involved war in the Middle East.

    I also imagine the false flag will be larger than 911 this time and precipitate a draft. This means the people between the ages of 18-30 will be fretting about going to war. Do you think these future soldiers are going to be purchasing the latest iPhone, Playstation, car, house, vacation?

    And what about the rest of the world? People in Mexico are already boycotting many American products because of Trump's rhetoric. Will consumers in Europe and China buy iPhones when the U.S. commits another folly into the Middle East? 

    I'm told there is a forum elsewhere on AI for political conversations.  I suggest most of this post belongs there. 
    This is a strategic conversation. Apple, their partners, and other U.S. companies have to prepare for this contingency.

    yeah it is call the Trump Strategy, not any different from any other time. Companies have to have strategies around every sitting president, as much as they say they not going to play with the economy they all do at some point.

    BTW the single largest indicator in our economy about uncertainty is the stock market. It hates uncertainty and look what it is doing, the markets is not fearing Trump, can say what would have happen if Hillary got in, but I can tell you all my money was coming out until the dust settle.

  • Reply 19 of 30
    sog35sog35 Posts: 12,198member
    sog35 said:
    "They'll be back. They allllways come back."
    Not if a major war is occurring. Some people might continue to upgrade on a regular schedule, but many will hold back on "luxuries" in a time of uncertainty. 

    The chance of the U.S. sending hundreds of thousands of troops into the Middle East was probably around 10% before the U.S. election. When a Republican won the election the chances probably got pushed to 40%. Since Trump mentioned the U.S. should take Iraq's oil the chance got pushed again to 60%. If the neocon, Elliot Abrams, is hired as Assistant Secretary of State  then there is probably an 80% chance of a major U.S. involved war in the Middle East.

    I also imagine the false flag will be larger than 911 this time and precipitate a draft. This means the people between the ages of 18-30 will be fretting about going to war. Do you think these future soldiers are going to be purchasing the latest iPhone, Playstation, car, house, vacation?

    And what about the rest of the world? People in Mexico are already boycotting many American products because of Trump's rhetoric. Will consumers in Europe and China buy iPhones when the U.S. commits another folly into the Middle East? 

    I'm told there is a forum elsewhere on AI for political conversations.  I suggest most of this post belongs there. 
    This is a strategic conversation. Apple, their partners, and other U.S. companies have to prepare for this contingency.
    sorry dude.

    Apple just had its biggest and best quarter ever. Your fears are unwarranted.
    The 7 series are spectacular devices, and sales should of been millions more than what was achieved, especially with the Samsung debacle.

    1. iPhone sales have decreased in China over the last several quarters YoY. Obviously, Trump's negative talk about China is not helping sales there: We have all seen the smashing iPhones with bats videos and Chinese companies threatening their employees from purchasing iPhones, etc.

    2. AAPL decreased by around 20% soon after 911. It did rebound fairly quickly, but Apple was a much smaller company back then. 

    It doesn't take a genius to realize the more threatening the U.S. gets towards the rest of the world the more that sales will suffer.
    God, you are ignorant.

    The falling China sales have happened WAY BEFORE Trump won. This happened in the beginning of 2016, way before Trump was a viable candidate.

    Apple has $250 billion in cash. Any storm will be easily weathered and is only temporary.
  • Reply 20 of 30
    maestro64 said:
    "They'll be back. They allllways come back."
    Not if a major war is occurring. Some people might continue to upgrade on a regular schedule, but many will hold back on "luxuries" in a time of uncertainty. 

    The chance of the U.S. sending hundreds of thousands of troops into the Middle East was probably around 10% before the U.S. election. When a Republican won the election the chances probably got pushed to 40%. Since Trump mentioned the U.S. should take Iraq's oil the chance got pushed again to 60%. If the neocon, Elliot Abrams, is hired as Assistant Secretary of State  then there is probably an 80% chance of a major U.S. involved war in the Middle East.

    I also imagine the false flag will be larger than 911 this time and precipitate a draft. This means the people between the ages of 18-30 will be fretting about going to war. Do you think these future soldiers are going to be purchasing the latest iPhone, Playstation, car, house, vacation?

    And what about the rest of the world? People in Mexico are already boycotting many American products because of Trump's rhetoric. Will consumers in Europe and China buy iPhones when the U.S. commits another folly into the Middle East? 

    I'm told there is a forum elsewhere on AI for political conversations.  I suggest most of this post belongs there. 
    This is a strategic conversation. Apple, their partners, and other U.S. companies have to prepare for this contingency.

    yeah it is call the Trump Strategy, not any different from any other time. Companies have to have strategies around every sitting president, as much as they say they not going to play with the economy they all do at some point.

    BTW the single largest indicator in our economy about uncertainty is the stock market. It hates uncertainty and look what it is doing, the markets is not fearing Trump, can say what would have happen if Hillary got in, but I can tell you all my money was coming out until the dust settle.

    I think the market is completely irrational at this point. What is the PE today - 26? And it seems to be rising daily. The only other expansion period since 1880 that has seen a higher PE was in the late 1990s. Back in those days personal computers were proliferating at an exponential rate and the Internet was creating new opportunities. Liquidity also significantly increased in those days.

    Eventhough IT has created substantial wealth recently, and the promises of lower taxes are causing people to salivate dollar signs, I think the market has gotten too far ahead of itself.
    edited February 6
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