Data suggests tens of millions of iPhone users ready to fuel 2017 'supercycle'

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 56
    macxpress said:
    cali said:
    It's gonna be called the iPhone 9. Officially. 
    I hope they just simply call it, iPhone. It doesn't need number after it. 
    What about iPhone XE

    Short for 10th anniversary edition.

    iPhone XE
    iPhone 7s
    iPhone SE

    It wouldn't rule it out as a possibility.
  • Reply 22 of 56
    rogifan_newrogifan_new Posts: 1,603member
    Sure they are ready, but question if upgrade to iPhone or move/upgrade to Android device. Apple would be much more ready if it did not experiment with phone jack removal and disabling remote in-line controls just to promote that fancy but so-so clips... pardon me... earbuds that do not represent any sound quality and hurt some people's ears (I use full headphones like many do). So they may decide for some if next device is going to be iPhone or good bye Apple phone if they at least provide dongle that allows wired in-line control of phone with some quality headphones (I use Sennheisers so do not ask about quality if you haven't tried anything on that level and above).
    I use Audio Technica cans which I really like. But I think headphone snobs are a tiny percentage of iPhone users.
  • Reply 23 of 56
    Something few people seem to have thought of is: there is no indication that Apple intends to stop producing the "#" series, with the 7s this year, and perhaps another model next year.

    The new design of the iPhone XE isn't necessarily the replacement design of the 6/7 series...it is more likely a newer, swankier, more expensive line altogether. Even if there is only 1 model, for now.

    I could easily see Apple continuing with not only 7s this year, but yet another iterative improvement on that product again next year. All the while, a great smartphone at a lower cost than the iPhone XE and whatever its successor is in 2018.
  • Reply 24 of 56
    SoliSoli Posts: 2,897member
    I may actually not update this year. The iPhone 7 Plus is such a great phone that they'd really have to "wow" me with a feature for me to upgrade. I doubt a new look and feel would be enough.
  • Reply 25 of 56
    Sure they are ready, but question if upgrade to iPhone or move/upgrade to Android device. Apple would be much more ready if it did not experiment with phone jack removal and disabling remote in-line controls just to promote that fancy but so-so clips... pardon me... earbuds that do not represent any sound quality and hurt some people's ears (I use full headphones like many do). So they may decide for some if next device is going to be iPhone or good bye Apple phone if they at least provide dongle that allows wired in-line control of phone with some quality headphones (I use Sennheisers so do not ask about quality if you haven't tried anything on that level and above).

    Didn't apple provide an adaptor for lightning to 3.5mm headphone jack along with iphone 7? Also an earphone with lightning port. Most likely they won't be providing it in the next generation iphones, but they are NOT that expensive anyway. So what is the actual problem? Personally I don't like it, but it is a non-issue for most of the people due to the alternate options (lightning port earphones for non-audiophiles, dongles for people who do use high quality headphones) available to everyone.
  • Reply 26 of 56
    Soli said:
    I may actually not update this year. The iPhone 7 Plus is such a great phone that they'd really have to "wow" me with a feature for me to upgrade. I doubt a new look and feel would be enough.

    You know you are stating the obvious, aren't you? The next generation iphones are targeted at people who own 2 or more years old phones, not the ones with <= 1 year.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 27 of 56
    SoliSoli Posts: 2,897member
    Soli said:
    I may actually not update this year. The iPhone 7 Plus is such a great phone that they'd really have to "wow" me with a feature for me to upgrade. I doubt a new look and feel would be enough.
    You know you are stating the obvious, aren't you? The next generation iphones are targeted at people who own 2 or more years old phones, not the ones with <= 1 year.
    Consider that I've had every iPhone right after it came out , except for the iPhone 4S, which is a year I skipped.
    pscooter63watto_cobra
  • Reply 28 of 56
    frantisekfrantisek Posts: 230member
    melgross said:

    i believe the 6/6+ series sales rose 48% from the year before, and the 6S/6S+ series dropped 15% from that level. Consequently, people were saying that Apple had hit a peak, and it would be downwards after that. But the reality is different, and for good reasons. Many people upgrade every two years. The 6/6+ had a major redesign. Two new phones instead of one, and, for Apple, a super sized model too. As a result, upgraders went wild. The opportunity to match the sizes of Android models was too much of a draw to ignore.
    .
    The reason of iPhone 6 success was big screen. So everybody who wanted bigger iPhone could buy it finally. When 6s came most of those who wanted bigger iPhone, already had 6. So no hurry to upgrade.
    Soli
  • Reply 29 of 56
    brucemc said:
    I honestly don't see how Apple will sell more each year on year. There are only an finite number of customers and with the main competition (Galaxy S8/S8+) generally getting a good reception the competition will be fiercer than ever. Then if Google ever gets its 'Pixel' line properly sorted out then we are in for a three way split in many markets if not an increase in the % of device running Android.
    With that, how can these guys say that there is gonna be a bumper year with a straight face?
    Although debating with someone who has a preconceived outcome is generally useless, it is Friday so why not try for fun?
    - Clearly the iPhone will not be able to increase sales "forever".  That is simply a stupid straw man statement.
    - iPhone sales do not necessarily increase "every year" (as last year showed0 but have & are expected to increase when looked at 2-3 year periods
    - The sales battle isn't really Apple vs. Samsung, Apple vs. Google, etc.  It is iPhone vs. high-end Android phones, for the small % that are likely to make a decision that way, instead of iOS vs Android OS/ecosystem.  A Google Pixel is more likely to take sales from Samsung than Apple.  Android has the dominant market share by far - that isn't going to change - the question is about iPhone sales.  Samsung had their best phone last year in Galaxy 7, yet Apple increased its sales from previous year.  
    - Apple continues to increase its iPhone installed base.  Some estimates are to the tune of ~100M new users a year for past few years.  As installed base grows, so does the potential for upgrades (which is counter-acted by fact the average time between upgrades lengthens).
    - There are still new markets for Apple, such as India.  As global average incomes rise, there is a small but still increasing number that enter the financial range to purchase premium phone if they want to (even if they had a very cheap Android phone before).

    I do agree that "super cycle" might be misplaced here, as iPhones simply are very durable and are lasting longer.  No one is predicting iPhone will grow (averaged over a few years) at a high % - but there is still growth to be had.  iPhone itself should get to 1B users in next few years - that is not counting iPad.
    But... Wall St will be expecting Apple to increase sales year on year. This is normal for them. Not meeting their expectations will result in a stock price will drop. Wall St loves Apple stock to drop.

    I don't agree with your surmise that it is a battle between Apple and high end Androids.
    Even budget Androids are good enough for most people these days. How long can Apple justify the high prices? What if enough people decide that $1000 is a big step too far and opt for a far cheaper Android?
    As for India... I've been there a number of times and worked with many Indians. For many a phone is a tool and not a status symbol. Cheapo phones abound and do the job. My perception is that is it not the status symbol that many people in other countries consider it to be.
    This may change over time with the rise in the niumber of middle class Indians.

    Personally, I think that the phone market is reaching maturity like the PC market. Growth will be small if any at all.
    In order to keep growing market share Apple, Samsung and the rest will face an uphill battle. Just being the latest thing on the block or with added bling won't hack it.

    I'm not saying that this will happen but I get the feeling that it might.
    avon b7
  • Reply 30 of 56
    SoliSoli Posts: 2,897member

    Sure they are ready, but question if upgrade to iPhone or move/upgrade to Android device. Apple would be much more ready if it did not experiment with phone jack removal and disabling remote in-line controls just to promote that fancy but so-so clips... pardon me... earbuds that do not represent any sound quality and hurt some people's ears (I use full headphones like many do). So they may decide for some if next device is going to be iPhone or good bye Apple phone if they at least provide dongle that allows wired in-line control of phone with some quality headphones (I use Sennheisers so do not ask about quality if you haven't tried anything on that level and above).
    Didn't apple provide an adaptor for lightning to 3.5mm headphone jack along with iphone 7? Also an earphone with lightning port. Most likely they won't be providing it in the next generation iphones, but they are NOT that expensive anyway. So what is the actual problem? Personally I don't like it, but it is a non-issue for most of the people due to the alternate options (lightning port earphones for non-audiophiles, dongles for people who do use high quality headphones) available to everyone.
    Because a biennial is most common, I can see them providing it for another cycle. Ultimately, I think it comes down to how the numbers crunch in models that deal with emotion and psychology, more than anything else. For example, will not inlacing it and then charging under $10 for one make the customer feel nickel-and-dimed? Of course there will be a certain number of those people, so the question is really how many they think they will have that will feel this way that may not buy and iPhone or cause bad press that could hurt sales in comparison to the cost of including one? They'd also consider how including one could negatively affect sales of AirPod and Lightning headphones. Or just BT headphones in general, as the faster we reach a tipping point of people moving away from the 3.5mm jack the faster Apple can move in other areas.
  • Reply 31 of 56
    frantisekfrantisek Posts: 230member
    melgross said:
    An examination of iPhone ASPs shows that during FY2016 (iPhone 6S/6S Plus) Apple sold more iPhone 6 units than it did iPhone 6S units.

    Ergo, the base of 6/6S iPhones will be at least 2 years old come October 2017, but importantly, with well over half (2/3s?) being 3 years old technologically.

    Average December quarter bi-annual upgrade rate of the last 4 years (5S/C, 6/Plus, 6S/Plus, 7/Plus)) is ~36"%".  Applying that rate to FQ1/2016 unit sales (74,772,000) yields FQ1/2018 unit sales of  101 Million units.

    I believe Apple is going to announce an iPhone 7S (4.7"), an iPhone 7S Plus (5.5") AND an iPhone "X"*. (OLED 5.0") that will be offered at $969 with 128 GB memory.  Although this price may limit iPhone "X" sales it will raise iPhone ASPs significantly nevertheless.

    I also believe the iPhone "X" will only be available during FY2018 as a special iPhone, that will be replaced by an iPhone 8/Plus in FY2019.  By discontinuing the iPhone "X" Apple makes room for a $769 iPhone 8 (64 GB 5.0" OLED) and an $869 iPhone 8 Plus (64 GB 5.8" OLED) in FY2018.

    Without the iPhone "X" I do not see iPhone unit sales growing by the implied 36% bi-annual rate.  With an iPhone "X" I see that growth rate as very doable.
    That could happen when Apple will be able to secure enough hi-tech parts from suppliers to feed mass production otherwise there can be premium model even in 2018.
  • Reply 32 of 56
    brucemc said:
    I honestly don't see how Apple will sell more each year on year. There are only an finite number of customers and with the main competition (Galaxy S8/S8+) generally getting a good reception the competition will be fiercer than ever. Then if Google ever gets its 'Pixel' line properly sorted out then we are in for a three way split in many markets if not an increase in the % of device running Android.
    With that, how can these guys say that there is gonna be a bumper year with a straight face?
    Although debating with someone who has a preconceived outcome is generally useless, it is Friday so why not try for fun?
    - Clearly the iPhone will not be able to increase sales "forever".  That is simply a stupid straw man statement.
    - iPhone sales do not necessarily increase "every year" (as last year showed0 but have & are expected to increase when looked at 2-3 year periods
    - The sales battle isn't really Apple vs. Samsung, Apple vs. Google, etc.  It is iPhone vs. high-end Android phones, for the small % that are likely to make a decision that way, instead of iOS vs Android OS/ecosystem.  A Google Pixel is more likely to take sales from Samsung than Apple.  Android has the dominant market share by far - that isn't going to change - the question is about iPhone sales.  Samsung had their best phone last year in Galaxy 7, yet Apple increased its sales from previous year.  
    - Apple continues to increase its iPhone installed base.  Some estimates are to the tune of ~100M new users a year for past few years.  As installed base grows, so does the potential for upgrades (which is counter-acted by fact the average time between upgrades lengthens).
    - There are still new markets for Apple, such as India.  As global average incomes rise, there is a small but still increasing number that enter the financial range to purchase premium phone if they want to (even if they had a very cheap Android phone before).

    I do agree that "super cycle" might be misplaced here, as iPhones simply are very durable and are lasting longer.  No one is predicting iPhone will grow (averaged over a few years) at a high % - but there is still growth to be had.  iPhone itself should get to 1B users in next few years - that is not counting iPad.
    But... Wall St will be expecting Apple to increase sales year on year. This is normal for them. Not meeting their expectations will result in a stock price will drop. Wall St loves Apple stock to drop.

    I don't agree with your surmise that it is a battle between Apple and high end Androids.
    Even budget Androids are good enough for most people these days. How long can Apple justify the high prices? What if enough people decide that $1000 is a big step too far and opt for a far cheaper Android?
    As for India... I've been there a number of times and worked with many Indians. For many a phone is a tool and not a status symbol. Cheapo phones abound and do the job. My perception is that is it not the status symbol that many people in other countries consider it to be.
    This may change over time with the rise in the niumber of middle class Indians.

    Personally, I think that the phone market is reaching maturity like the PC market. Growth will be small if any at all.
    In order to keep growing market share Apple, Samsung and the rest will face an uphill battle. Just being the latest thing on the block or with added bling won't hack it.

    I'm not saying that this will happen but I get the feeling that it might.

    I was wondering what you were up-to in the previous post, but this post is absolutely spot on. In the earlier post, the discussion was about fierce competition between iPhone vs Samsung S8 vs Pixel 2nd generation. In the premium segment, Apple is the King and will be for the foreseeable future (unless an fiasco happens equal to that of Note 7 which is extremely hard to even imagine, let alone to actually happen). There is just no competition, particularly after the Note 7 fiasco. With S7/S7 edge, Samsung moved 1 step forward last year in premium segment AND went 10 steps back with Note 7.

    But the fact that only a finite number of people are there to buy "premium" products and that IPhones have nearly reached the ownership of that segment of people would indicate a steady performance in the years to come with no growth or small +ve or -ve growth. And Wall st would expect growth forever and declare the results as disappointing even when the actual performance of Apple compared to the competition would be excellent.

  • Reply 33 of 56
    Definetly I am going to upgarde my Iphone this year, I have a 6S and my plan is due in december so I am going to have enough time to compare and decide wether de /s or the new flagship iPhone is te right one for me.

    watto_cobra
  • Reply 34 of 56
    I will be upgrading both my wife's and my own iPhone 6 models. We are both pretty happy with our phones, but my two kids have hand-me-down iPhone 5 models and they are the ones who need new phones. We already replaced swollen batteries in both phones at least once. So we will upgrade the "adult" phones to the latest model and pass our 6 models down to the kids. I am sure I am not the only one in this situation.
    edited April 21
  • Reply 35 of 56
    volcanvolcan Posts: 1,259member
    macxpress said:
    Now that most (if not all) carriers have dropped 2yr plans I think a lot more people down the road could upgrade whenever they want versus before they could only upgrade every 2yrs unless they wanted to pay for the full price of the phone which some did. Thats being said, perhaps Apple could benefit from this in the future. 
    Exact opposite for me. Once the subsidy plans were dropped, I skipped my usual 2 year upgrade cycle. I'm on an iPhone 6. There is no penalty for keeping an older phone now as long as it is working well and you are satisfied with the feature set. The 6 still runs the latest iOS so I probably won't upgrade this cycle either. But I will replace it when it is no longer supported.
  • Reply 36 of 56
    boltsfan17boltsfan17 Posts: 1,318member
    Soli said:
    I may actually not update this year. The iPhone 7 Plus is such a great phone that they'd really have to "wow" me with a feature for me to upgrade. I doubt a new look and feel would be enough.
    For me personally, the addition of an OLED screen is a good enough reason to upgrade. 
  • Reply 37 of 56
    macxpressmacxpress Posts: 2,743member
    volcan said:
    macxpress said:
    Now that most (if not all) carriers have dropped 2yr plans I think a lot more people down the road could upgrade whenever they want versus before they could only upgrade every 2yrs unless they wanted to pay for the full price of the phone which some did. Thats being said, perhaps Apple could benefit from this in the future. 
    Exact opposite for me. Once the subsidy plans were dropped, I skipped my usual 2 year upgrade cycle. I'm on an iPhone 6. There is no penalty for keeping an older phone now as long as it is working well and you are satisfied with the feature set. The 6 still runs the latest iOS so I probably won't upgrade this cycle either. But I will replace it when it is no longer supported.
    There was no penalty before. Nobody made you upgrade your phone every 2yrs. You just weren't eligible to upgrade until your 2yr contract was up. There was no issue at all keeping an iPhone 5 around if the iPhone 7 was out. 
  • Reply 38 of 56
    volcanvolcan Posts: 1,259member
    macxpress said:
    There was no penalty before. Nobody made you upgrade your phone every 2yrs. You just weren't eligible to upgrade until your 2yr contract was up. There was no issue at all keeping an iPhone 5 around if the iPhone 7 was out. 
    There was a penalty, at least with AT&T. Even after you were off contract, you still paid the full subsidized cost month after month. Now you only pay for the service with a bring your own phone.
  • Reply 39 of 56

    About a month after launch, my T-Mobile 7+ order got screwed up, so I decided to wait until this September (2017) to make a decision.


    My 6+ battery is still OK, but there is an annoying yellowish streak on the right side of the screen. This 6+ will be 3-years-old in early November 2017, so it is ready for an upgrade. But, I may decide just to replace the battery if there are no compelling new features.


    In order of importance here is my current new feature wish list:


    1. Wireless range charging, five day battery life, or five minute quick charging 
    2. Foldable - preferably from a 6+ into an iPad mini size
    3. Smaller (more modern) bezels
    4. AR system like what Facebook just revealed where objects can be deleted or added to a scene 
    5. AR system like Samsung's Bixby, which allow real world objects to be recognized and then links provided for purchase and/or links for more info
    6. Vastly improved Siri (don't know if this will be hardware specific)
    7. The ability to connect the phone to an external screen, keyboard and mouse and turn it into a MacOS like computer with windows and file management


    I don't care about face unlock, a better screen, or a faster processor, unless the processor is needed to make AR and the like MacOS feature work seamlessly. 


    If the new phone just has a better screen, better camera, slimmer bezels, and a few, half-baked AR features then I will probably just wait another year. 

  • Reply 40 of 56
    Even budget Androids are good enough for most people these days.
    Define "good enough".
    watto_cobra
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