Apple's established 'staircase model' suggests 'iPhone 8' price could reach $1100

Posted:
in iPhone
A new analysis details Apple's historical pricing trends with the iPhone, and predicts that the 256-gigabyte "iPhone 7s Plus" could reach a price as high as $1100, with the "iPhone 8" at that point or even higher.



Image credit Nodus and Gordon Kelly

Asymco's Horace Dediu has published a breakdown of new iPhone pricing that he calls the "staircase model," dating back to the original release. The graphs shows a "high degree of consistency of pattern" with the floor of the staircase a consistent $400, with the ceiling growing every three years by $100, now sitting at $950 for a 256GB iPhone 7 Plus.




Dediu notes that should historical trends for the last decade continue, the ceiling is due for another $100 jump this year, with the ceiling hitting $1100 for some model of the device -- likely any "iPhone 7S Plus" and probably the "iPhone 8" as well.

There are changes in pattern, such as the iPhone SE, and the increase in storage to 256GB. However, the impact of a full-featured device like the rumored iPhone 8 would likely be one of those pattern-shifts in the upwards direction as well.




As a result of the staircase pricing, the average price of the phone stays mostly the same, minus effects of outlying models, like the iPhone SE and possibly the "iPhone 8."

"The iPhone can be seen as controllingthe $650 point, the Mac $1200, the iPod $200 and the iPad $450," writes Dediu. "Thispricing signals the product's value and the value of thebrand."

Speculation has emerged that the tech-loaded "iPhone 8" would likely retail for $1000 or more, with some discussions centering around a $1200 price point.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 57
    rogifan_newrogifan_new Posts: 4,297member
    Don’t get greedy Apple. No Apple Watch Edition stupidity. Remember how successful the iPhone SE was in comparison to the 5C. People will pay a “premium” but don’t want to feel like they’re being gouged. Don’t give consumers any reason to think of moving to S8.
    mattrogers_278Banditzoetmbwaverboy
  • Reply 2 of 57
    dachardachar Posts: 330member
    The chart certainly shows what incredible value the SE 64 is against earlier models of the same size. It is not all increasing prices.
    radarthekatcornchip[Deleted User]lolliver
  • Reply 3 of 57
    mattrogers_2mattrogers_2 Posts: 10unconfirmed, member
    How much of this is to adjust for inflation? It has been 10 years now. $650 in 2007 is $786 in 2017 dollars. The value proposition has gotten far better with time as the phones have only increased in quality and greater features, while the base price stayed the same....FOR TEN YEARS.
    StrangeDaysalbegarcradarthekatcornchippscooter63watto_cobra[Deleted User]lolliver
  • Reply 4 of 57
    Don’t get greedy Apple. No Apple Watch Edition stupidity. Remember how successful the iPhone SE was in comparison to the 5C. People will pay a “premium” but don’t want to feel like they’re being gouged. Don’t give consumers any reason to think of moving to S8.
    What if Apple is able to "differentiate" the new iPhone Pro/X (8 doesn't make any sense to me) from the regular 7s/7s plus AND people are willing to pay a premium for those differentiating factors? Why would they move to S8 which has its own usability issues (particularly with FPS) apart from having a high price of its own? Those who don't want to pay a premium will go for 7s/7s plus or even 7/7 plus (considering that majority of people who upgrade would be owning models older about 2 years+), isn't it?
    netmagewatto_cobralolliver
  • Reply 5 of 57
    StrangeDaysStrangeDays Posts: 12,821member
    Don’t get greedy Apple. No Apple Watch Edition stupidity. Remember how successful the iPhone SE was in comparison to the 5C. People will pay a “premium” but don’t want to feel like they’re being gouged. Don’t give consumers any reason to think of moving to S8.
    Do you honestly beleieve Apple decision makers are reading these forums, and that your wants affect their pricing and profit strategy?

    Dreamland aside, i think your premise that having a higher priced tier will drive customers to another brand rather than opting for a lower tier is pretty nuts. I didn’t want the Edition watch so i got the steel. I didn’t get a Samsung POS instead. 
    edited July 2017 pscooter63netmageRonnnieOcornchipwatto_cobraRayz2016[Deleted User]lolliver
  • Reply 6 of 57
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 33,407member
    Word from Samsung headquarters in South Korea is indicating the iPhone 8 will be $5,000... so how about buying a Samsung Galaxy device instead?  /s
    cornchipwatto_cobralolliver
  • Reply 7 of 57
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 4,053member
    Don’t get greedy Apple. No Apple Watch Edition stupidity. Remember how successful the iPhone SE was in comparison to the 5C. People will pay a “premium” but don’t want to feel like they’re being gouged. Don’t give consumers any reason to think of moving to S8.
    What if Apple is able to "differentiate" the new iPhone Pro/X (8 doesn't make any sense to me) from the regular 7s/7s plus AND people are willing to pay a premium for those differentiating factors? Why would they move to S8 which has its own usability issues (particularly with FPS) apart from having a high price of its own? Those who don't want to pay a premium will go for 7s/7s plus or even 7/7 plus (considering that majority of people who upgrade would be owning models older about 2 years+), isn't it?
    What about exclusive Iris Scanner and Touch ID under the glass together with OLED screen. Additional to 4GB+ of RAM, 64GB to start out and then 256GB/512GB? 7S/7S+ still get Touch ID in front with updated camera, CPU, GPU, new colors?
    edited July 2017
  • Reply 8 of 57
    Don’t get greedy Apple. No Apple Watch Edition stupidity. Remember how successful the iPhone SE was in comparison to the 5C. People will pay a “premium” but don’t want to feel like they’re being gouged. Don’t give consumers any reason to think of moving to S8.
    Do you honestly beleieve Apple decision makers are reading these forums, and that your wants affect their pricing and profit strategy?

    Dreamland aside, i think your premise that having a higher priced tier will drive customers to another brand rather than opting for a lower tier is pretty nuts. I didn’t want the Edition watch so i got the steel. I didn’t get a Samsung POS instead. 
    Apple uses anonymous opinions posted on the Internet to decide on everything. Or was that Samsung? I forget.

    In all likelihood, if someone wants an iPhone 8 but can't afford one, they'll get a 7s or 7s Plus. That's why Apple has a "pricing staircase." The S8 does not automatically win over those customers.
    StrangeDayscornchippscooter63watto_cobralolliver
  • Reply 9 of 57

    Don’t get greedy Apple. No Apple Watch Edition stupidity. Remember how successful the iPhone SE was in comparison to the 5C. People will pay a “premium” but don’t want to feel like they’re being gouged. Don’t give consumers any reason to think of moving to S8.
    What if Apple is able to "differentiate" the new iPhone Pro/X (8 doesn't make any sense to me) from the regular 7s/7s plus AND people are willing to pay a premium for those differentiating factors? Why would they move to S8 which has its own usability issues (particularly with FPS) apart from having a high price of its own? Those who don't want to pay a premium will go for 7s/7s plus or even 7/7 plus (considering that majority of people who upgrade would be owning models older about 2 years+), isn't it?
    It's a false dilemma, of course. The choices aren't restricted to only iPhone 8 or S8.
    netmagepscooter63lolliver
  • Reply 10 of 57
    robjnrobjn Posts: 275member
    We don't know the specs yet.

    what if...
    it has sapphire front and back?
    and the supposed stainless steel sides are actually a tough Bulk Metallic Glass alloy?

    now there's a $1700 phone!
  • Reply 11 of 57
    robjnrobjn Posts: 275member

    Don’t get greedy Apple. No Apple Watch Edition stupidity. Remember how successful the iPhone SE was in comparison to the 5C. People will pay a “premium” but don’t want to feel like they’re being gouged. Don’t give consumers any reason to think of moving to S8.
    Customers will have more choice than ever and there will be an iPhone for almost everyone. If this is really a luxury model in limited supply we will we probably see Apple actively 'anti-selling' it.

    It won't be for everyone. It's always silly for people to get offended when Apple release a product that is not for them personally.
    StrangeDayscornchippscooter63watto_cobralolliver
  • Reply 12 of 57
    rogifan_newrogifan_new Posts: 4,297member
    Don’t get greedy Apple. No Apple Watch Edition stupidity. Remember how successful the iPhone SE was in comparison to the 5C. People will pay a “premium” but don’t want to feel like they’re being gouged. Don’t give consumers any reason to think of moving to S8.
    What if Apple is able to "differentiate" the new iPhone Pro/X (8 doesn't make any sense to me) from the regular 7s/7s plus AND people are willing to pay a premium for those differentiating factors? Why would they move to S8 which has its own usability issues (particularly with FPS) apart from having a high price of its own? Those who don't want to pay a premium will go for 7s/7s plus or even 7/7 plus (considering that majority of people who upgrade would be owning models older about 2 years+), isn't it?
    There needs to be a reason for the price increase though and a reason that Apple can clearly articulate why it’s so much more expensive. Just raising the price because they can and some will pay for it doesn’t seem like a good enough reason, I’m hoping Gruber’s theory is right - that the higher price is Apple delivering next years iPhone this year. And I hope the 7S (or whatever Apple calls it) is not just a 7 with new SoC and better camera. I hope it’s a brand new design that makes it desirable for the masses.
  • Reply 13 of 57
    rogifan_newrogifan_new Posts: 4,297member
    Don’t get greedy Apple. No Apple Watch Edition stupidity. Remember how successful the iPhone SE was in comparison to the 5C. People will pay a “premium” but don’t want to feel like they’re being gouged. Don’t give consumers any reason to think of moving to S8.
    Do you honestly beleieve Apple decision makers are reading these forums, and that your wants affect their pricing and profit strategy?

    Dreamland aside, i think your premise that having a higher priced tier will drive customers to another brand rather than opting for a lower tier is pretty nuts. I didn’t want the Edition watch so i got the steel. I didn’t get a Samsung POS instead. 
    Can’t compare. When it comes to flagship phones I think it’s pretty even (at least from a hardware standpoint). And I mentioned the 5C. I think one reason it didn’t sell as well as the SE is because it was more that people wanted to pay for what they were getting. If the 8 is a marvel of engineering and manufacturing and leapfrogs everyone else in terms of flagship smartphone hardware that’s another story. If it’s just more expensive so Apple can raise ASPs (or just test how much some people are willing to pay) and if the tech press & other media scream overpriced then I think there’s a problem.
  • Reply 14 of 57
    I've been saying for a while now:

    iPhone 8 128 GB - $969
    iPhone 8 256 GB - $1069

    $100 premium over 7s Plus. Like everything else.

    And now that they've introduced 512 with the iPads...I could see that model too.

    iPhone 8 512 GB - $1169
  • Reply 15 of 57
    StrangeDaysStrangeDays Posts: 12,821member
    Don’t get greedy Apple. No Apple Watch Edition stupidity. Remember how successful the iPhone SE was in comparison to the 5C. People will pay a “premium” but don’t want to feel like they’re being gouged. Don’t give consumers any reason to think of moving to S8.
    What if Apple is able to "differentiate" the new iPhone Pro/X (8 doesn't make any sense to me) from the regular 7s/7s plus AND people are willing to pay a premium for those differentiating factors? Why would they move to S8 which has its own usability issues (particularly with FPS) apart from having a high price of its own? Those who don't want to pay a premium will go for 7s/7s plus or even 7/7 plus (considering that majority of people who upgrade would be owning models older about 2 years+), isn't it?
    There needs to be a reason for the price increase though and a reason that Apple can clearly articulate why it’s so much more expensive. Just raising the price because they can and some will pay for it doesn’t seem like a good enough reason, I’m hoping Gruber’s theory is right - that the higher price is Apple delivering next years iPhone this year. And I hope the 7S (or whatever Apple calls it) is not just a 7 with new SoC and better camera. I hope it’s a brand new design that makes it desirable for the masses.
    When has an S-series ever been anything but updated internals? It’s never a whole new design. If it were, it wouldn’t be the same number-series. So if it’s a 7s, it’s going to look like the existing 7. 
    radarthekatcornchippscooter63watto_cobralolliver
  • Reply 16 of 57
    StrangeDaysStrangeDays Posts: 12,821member

    Don’t get greedy Apple. No Apple Watch Edition stupidity. Remember how successful the iPhone SE was in comparison to the 5C. People will pay a “premium” but don’t want to feel like they’re being gouged. Don’t give consumers any reason to think of moving to S8.
    Do you honestly beleieve Apple decision makers are reading these forums, and that your wants affect their pricing and profit strategy?

    Dreamland aside, i think your premise that having a higher priced tier will drive customers to another brand rather than opting for a lower tier is pretty nuts. I didn’t want the Edition watch so i got the steel. I didn’t get a Samsung POS instead. 
    Can’t compare. When it comes to flagship phones I think it’s pretty even (at least from a hardware standpoint). And I mentioned the 5C. I think one reason it didn’t sell as well as the SE is because it was more that people wanted to pay for what they were getting. If the 8 is a marvel of engineering and manufacturing and leapfrogs everyone else in terms of flagship smartphone hardware that’s another story. If it’s just more expensive so Apple can raise ASPs (or just test how much some people are willing to pay) and if the tech press & other media scream overpriced then I think there’s a problem.
    First, don’t rewrite history — the 5c was a big seller. In the US carrier stories the 5s and 5c were the top two selling handsets. 

    https://www.cultofmac.com/248616/iphone-5s-is-best-selling-smartphone-while-iphone-5c-comes-in-2nd-or-3rd/

    http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/10/04/apples-iphone-5s-tops-sales-charts-at-big-4-us-carriers-iphone-5c-close-behind

    I hardly think tech press screaming over anything is relevant. It’s usually ignorant nonsense and not aligned with normals.

    I doubt Apple will offer a higher priced device without having value-adding reasons why. See iPad. See Mac. 

    So again, having a high priced tier won’t push users to Samsung as you claimed. 
    edited July 2017 netmageradarthekatcornchippscooter63watto_cobralolliver
  • Reply 17 of 57
    johnbearjohnbear Posts: 160member
    It's not gonna sell like hot potatoes anymore. If you are on a 7/7plus which finally's got 3GB Ram to catch up with the 2012 android, there's no need to upgrade. Maybe for those who come from a 4 or 5SE, but again those who hold on these crapy phones in 2017 are not willing to pay $1100 for a phone. Maybe for the 6/6s crowed? But at that price not easy since the phone market is mature, lots of nicely built phones out there that cost much less. 
    edited July 2017
  • Reply 18 of 57
    rogifan_newrogifan_new Posts: 4,297member

    Don’t get greedy Apple. No Apple Watch Edition stupidity. Remember how successful the iPhone SE was in comparison to the 5C. People will pay a “premium” but don’t want to feel like they’re being gouged. Don’t give consumers any reason to think of moving to S8.
    Do you honestly beleieve Apple decision makers are reading these forums, and that your wants affect their pricing and profit strategy?

    Dreamland aside, i think your premise that having a higher priced tier will drive customers to another brand rather than opting for a lower tier is pretty nuts. I didn’t want the Edition watch so i got the steel. I didn’t get a Samsung POS instead. 
    Can’t compare. When it comes to flagship phones I think it’s pretty even (at least from a hardware standpoint). And I mentioned the 5C. I think one reason it didn’t sell as well as the SE is because it was more that people wanted to pay for what they were getting. If the 8 is a marvel of engineering and manufacturing and leapfrogs everyone else in terms of flagship smartphone hardware that’s another story. If it’s just more expensive so Apple can raise ASPs (or just test how much some people are willing to pay) and if the tech press & other media scream overpriced then I think there’s a problem.
    First, don’t rewrite history — the 5c was a big seller. In the US carrier stories the 5s and 5c were the top two selling handsets. 

    https://www.cultofmac.com/248616/iphone-5s-is-best-selling-smartphone-while-iphone-5c-comes-in-2nd-or-3rd/

    http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/10/04/apples-iphone-5s-tops-sales-charts-at-big-4-us-carriers-iphone-5c-close-behind

    I hardly think tech press screaming over anything is relevant. It’s usually ignorant nonsense and not aligned with normals.

    I doubt Apple will offer a higher priced device without having value-adding reasons why. See iPad. See Mac. 

    So again, having a high priced tier won’t push users to Samsung as you claimed. 
    One could argue the additions to the iPad didn’t require a price increase. What determines a price increase anyway? BOM + standard margin? So retina screen and Touch ID didn’t require price increase but whatever is coming to the next iPhone will?
    airnerd
  • Reply 19 of 57
    rogifan_newrogifan_new Posts: 4,297member
    Don’t get greedy Apple. No Apple Watch Edition stupidity. Remember how successful the iPhone SE was in comparison to the 5C. People will pay a “premium” but don’t want to feel like they’re being gouged. Don’t give consumers any reason to think of moving to S8.
    What if Apple is able to "differentiate" the new iPhone Pro/X (8 doesn't make any sense to me) from the regular 7s/7s plus AND people are willing to pay a premium for those differentiating factors? Why would they move to S8 which has its own usability issues (particularly with FPS) apart from having a high price of its own? Those who don't want to pay a premium will go for 7s/7s plus or even 7/7 plus (considering that majority of people who upgrade would be owning models older about 2 years+), isn't it?
    There needs to be a reason for the price increase though and a reason that Apple can clearly articulate why it’s so much more expensive. Just raising the price because they can and some will pay for it doesn’t seem like a good enough reason, I’m hoping Gruber’s theory is right - that the higher price is Apple delivering next years iPhone this year. And I hope the 7S (or whatever Apple calls it) is not just a 7 with new SoC and better camera. I hope it’s a brand new design that makes it desirable for the masses.
    When has an S-series ever been anything but updated internals? It’s never a whole new design. If it were, it wouldn’t be the same number-series. So if it’s a 7s, it’s going to look like the existing 7. 
    Except the 7 wasn’t much of a change from the 6S. It was basically not much more than tweaking the antenna lines and camera bump. There’s no way someone would put a 7 next to a 6S and call it a whole new design. If the 7S looks just like the 7 and the 8 has a starting price over $1000 this will not be another iPhone super cycle.
  • Reply 20 of 57
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 13,377member
    fallenjt said:
    Don’t get greedy Apple. No Apple Watch Edition stupidity. Remember how successful the iPhone SE was in comparison to the 5C. People will pay a “premium” but don’t want to feel like they’re being gouged. Don’t give consumers any reason to think of moving to S8.
    What if Apple is able to "differentiate" the new iPhone Pro/X (8 doesn't make any sense to me) from the regular 7s/7s plus AND people are willing to pay a premium for those differentiating factors? Why would they move to S8 which has its own usability issues (particularly with FPS) apart from having a high price of its own? Those who don't want to pay a premium will go for 7s/7s plus or even 7/7 plus (considering that majority of people who upgrade would be owning models older about 2 years+), isn't it?
    What about exclusive Iris Scanner and Touch ID under the glass together with OLED screen. Additional to 4GB+ of RAM, 64GB to start out and then 256GB/512GB? 7S/7S+ still get Touch ID in front with updated camera, CPU, GPU, new colors?
    Not worth it.   Those are just rehashed features from previous machines.  
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