Goodbye iBook series?

dhagan4755

I have been doing a lot of thinking lately



Could the iBook series be on its last legs?



The Signs...



1. 12-inch PowerBook is introduced that is essentially an iBook G4.

2. Recent pricing drops on PB's increase the blur between consumer and pro lines.

3. Apple Online Store redesign removes quadrant layout -- the only differentiation highlighted is between Portables and Desktops.

4. Rumors indicate 970 processor is up to 35% cheaper than the G4.



This could apply for the iMac too.



I think that Apple may get rid of the imac and iBook and have a uniform product where the distinction between pro and consumer is defined by the speed of the processor.



What do you guys think???

thegelding

maybe...but i still see the market for a white plastic portable for students...i would rather get that than a metal portable for my daughter...kids are tougher on their stuff than adults (in general...i would get an iBook style for my mom over the PB also because she is a flake and would be rough on it too)...consumer and pro could have the same processor and have the distinction be speed and graphics and other things...it has worked for dell and others...but i would like different enclosures to separate the lines...



g

programmer

No, if anything Apple might add new iBook models and update the whole line. This is the "year of the laptop" not the "year of the powerbook", and Apple isn't going to drop their whole consumer lineup -- that's where much of their strength is these days.



I expect great things in the future from improved low power processors from IBM and contiunally improving battery technology. The future of consumer portables from Apple is bright.

o and a

I think because of the price similarity an update is coming around.

cubedude

Perhaps lower priced iBooks to match the eMac's new prices? An $800 iBook would be sweet.

chucker

Maybe they'll turn it into an eBook - slightly lower pricing, less features (no monitor out?), etc.



Then they should also turn the eMac into a G3.

nofeer

if the 970 is so much cheaper why not the full line of macs as 970 that way they can get a lowest price ibook for schools and students or just consolidate the entire line two ibooks and 3 power books, consolidation can help production efficiencies and inventory costs

If i was trying to sell in this environment saving 35% on a major or most expensive part of the unit then i would go full line of 970 and differenciate by speed and features

pscates

I've thought of possible across-the-board lower pricing for the iBook. If they can drop G4-based laptops (with SuperDrives, many video-out choices, etc.) down by $200 or so, then I'd like to believe that a simple G3-based product like the iBook could also get well below it's current baseline of $999.



I think by this time next year, we'll see a $799 (possibly even lower) 12" iBook. I just do. Not even saying what kind of chip or specs or features it has, I just think there will be a REALLY affordable iBook within a year's time.



Man, I'm chomping at the bit here, people!







SO much has happened in just this year. Hell, in just this week and past month or so. Think about it!



Imagine the last half of 2003 and all that could happen: back-to-school season coming up, as well as the holidays.



You never know.

ompus

When you say the 970 is 30% cheaper than the g4, are you referring to the 7455 or the much smaller and modestly priced 7457?.

The 1.0 ghz 7457 draws 7.5 watts. How many watts does the 1.2 ghz 970 pull?

Are there any engineering costs associated with adopting the cheaper, more efficient 7457?

keyboardf12

they may be 35% cheaper but what happens if the mb, cost of companion chip, or the memory or the addition of gpu's or dolby 5.1 or 7.1, add to the cost. those costs are not there on current machine so it may negate the price drop of the chip itself.

carson o'genic

I don't think that in the year of the laptop that Apple would kill a well recognized brand name such as "iBook." It takes time, money and effort to build recognition of product names. People know what the iBook stands for- a consumer level laptop. They may change the design but not the name. From that end, I don't expect the 12" PowerBook to be rebranded as an iBook-that would be strange. So, my vote is for a new iBook line at some point in the future, not that i think the current lineup is that stale from a design point of view.

lemon bon bon

Quote:

I think by this time next year, we'll see a $799 (possibly even lower) 12" iBook. I just do. Not even saying what kind of chip or specs or features it has, I just think there will be a REALLY affordable iBook within a year's time.

I think you could be right.



1. Lower the iBook price across the range.



In the Uk, the iBook entry level is 799 inc VAT. I think Apple could get that down lower by another hundred or so. A £595 or £695 iBook would certainly get sales moving again. They've taken a hit since the launch of the Powerbook 12 incher.



2. Expand the Powerbook 12 model.



I think Apple must learn the lessons of the past to get the growth they're after. They don't have to be the cheapest. But they do need to be cheap-ER. A hundred off across the board would be a start. Cheaper chips from IBM would help. Increased purchasing power of Taiwanese components will enable Apple to keep or slightly lower margins and reduce prices while still making profits while hopefully enabling growth.



Bumping the iBook range down by a hundred each and expanding the Powerbook 12 incher would be a good move in my opinion.



Both would contribute further to the year of the laptop.



But, most of all, I think getting faster G3s in the iBook will help. In particular the G3+SIMD.



Also, sticking the 970 in the flagship Powerbook laptops would be a killer move. Apple should, in my opinion, be moving heaven and earth and all their engineering resources to make that happen this year. That way, they can build upon their higher than average of the industry laptop growth. My wife's already got an iBook anyhow. For what she does, a 600 mhz iBook is fine. A 970 17 inch laptop would get me sweating. I may just buy something like that.



Lemon Bon Bon

lemon bon bon

...and fer cryin' out loud. Advertise 'em to death.



Lemon Bon Bon

keyboardf12

and make sure one of these has a "p4" painted of the side of it.

shaktai

The iBook line is far from dead. I think Apple will continue to improve and differentiate their Pro and Consumer lines in different ways. Different machines for different customer bases and different needs.



And forget Motorola. They are going to have to prove they can produce quality chips in volume before they should even be mentioned. The 7457 doesn't exist as a desktop chip, nor has Motorola given any indication they are willing to make it available as a desktop chip. It is intended to be an embedded chip.



Even if it did, it would still have a strangled bus relative to the 970. My money is on later generation IBM G3's. Motorola hasn't delivered on time in years. IBM I think will.

amorph

Quote:

Originally posted by Shaktai

The 7457 doesn't exist as a desktop chip, nor has Motorola given any indication they are willing to make it available as a desktop chip. It is intended to be an embedded chip.

The 7455 and the IBM G3 are both embedded chips. Apple will use whatever they feel is best for the job, regardless of how it's labelled.



Whether and how Apple uses the 7457 depends on when they're available in quantities Apple can use, what price they command, and whether there's a product that they're suitable for. (And whether Apple has a reason to keep any ties to them.)

Quote:

Even if it did, it would still have a strangled bus relative to the 970. My money is on later generation IBM G3's. Motorola hasn't delivered on time in years. IBM I think will.

Whether its bus is strangled relative to the 970 is not interesting from the point of view of the iBook; it's whether the bus is strangled relative to the other processor options for the iBook. The G4's bus is more efficient than the G3's 1994-vintage technology, and that will remain true until the G3 adopts an onboard memory controller and RapidIO.



The 7457 is apparently shipping now. We have no idea when this G3+SIMD beast will appear, but given that the 750fx just appeared not long ago, it won't be soon. The '57 is a pin-compatible drop-in replacement for the '55, so Apple can use their mature (and how!) motherboard tech to support it until either the G3 trickles up or the 970 trickles down.



I can see the iBook adopting the '57 easily. It's an unambiguous step up from what it currently has, it's inexpensive, and it would allow the iBook to get on the multimedia authoring bandwagon. The iBook has been a strong seller despite a relatively weak CPU, so I don't think adoption of the 7457 would in any way set it back.



Oh, and I don't think the iBook is going anywhere, either. We'll see Apple continue to push the price down a bit further, and bump the technology up. Imagine a laptop with a SuperDrive and a G4 for $999.

matsu

Lower PB prices can only mean that the iBook will get cheaper still. A 799 G3 based machine is easily within reach. For the 999-1299 range, I see 7447's (no cache) on essentially the current PB12 Mobo, and a 14" (widescreen, a la Pscates mock-up)



PB's will either get much faster 7457's (with L3) or 970's, but I really don't think those have a chance in anything other than the 17" model untill sometime in mid to late '04.



Transitions have typically seen the PB lag with the previous gen chip for a while, and the iBook move to said chip 6-12 months before the PB moves on. Only happened once, yes, we know, but the iBook didn't exist before that.



I'd guess that before the year is out there will be a 14" G4 iBook not unlike the PB12 I'm using right now, and 7457 based Pbooks, all with L3 and DVI out, better battery life, and 1.33-1.6Ghz speeds, possibly pushing the FSB up to 200Mhz.



MAYBE, mebbe, and only mebbe, a 970 based lapzilla.

pscates

I could deal with that. I only wish it would happen before I pull the trigger on my planned mid/late August laptop purchase.



I'll jump off a bridge if I plunk down $2000-2700 for a new 15" aluminum PowerBook and they come out with a perfectly cool G4 iBook (whose styling and rugged nature I MUCH prefer) that more than meets my needs for $1499 two weeks later!







All I can hope is that they saw my mockup linked below, got inspired, fast-tracked it and are going to announce it in the next couple of months.







I just want a G4-based laptop. iBook, PowerBook...I don't care. BUT, if I buy a PowerBook, I want the DVI and cache. I EXPECT it. It only makes sense.



But if I get a G4-based iBook, then I'm much more flexible on things like that (as long as it reasonably matches the specs/features of the iMac and/or eMac in terms of bus speed, video/graphics, hard drive, drive choices, etc.) because for the low-mid $1000s, I'm not expecting those "pro" features. I know, going in, the iBook isn't going to have that type of stuff, just the way my iMac doesn't have all the higher-end coolness of the towers.



And that's perfectly fine and cool with me.



I'm only saving for a PowerBook because, as of this moment, it's the only laptop I can get with a G4. But I certainly wouldn't mind saving a grand or so if they want to whip out a white plastic G4 laptop with an "i" in the name and sell it for around $1500.







That $1000 or so I save by getting a G4 iBook will buy me a gob of RAM, an AirPort Card and Base Station, a nice digital camera (or 15GB iPod) and a spiffy carrying case/bag!

johnsonwax

Quote:

Originally posted by thegelding

maybe...but i still see the market for a white plastic portable for students...i would rather get that than a metal portable for my daughter...kids are tougher on their stuff than adults...

Well, I'd argue that my 12" PB is much more solid than my old iBook. It's way, way better than the 15" PB which I agree is pretty delicate.

junkyard dawg

I see a new iBook line with either G4s or a "G3+" with Altivec and a RIO bus, or some other FSB that supports DDR and high-bandwidth (whatever is on the 970...I don't know the name for it).



Although the 970 is cheaper, the G4 would probably be cheaper overall because Apple could use a cheaper mobo with antiquated technology and such. If rumors are true it would be nice to use a G4 with a RIO bus, but I believe that any G4-based iBook would be stuck with an FSB no faster than 200 MHz, and with no true DDR RAM support. But it's an iBook, so that's ok for a short while. Better than using an ultralame G3 like they do now.



I suspect Apple will recycle the mobos from the 12" and 15" Powerbooks, clothe them in new enclosures, and call 'em iBooks. For kiddie usage, iBooks need to be more rugged and durable than Powerbooks, so the case should be plastic, and shell covering the screen should be thicker and stronger. I think Apple should really push this aspect of the iBook, since it's something not done by any other Wintel maker that I'm aware of.



Sadly, I don't think Apple will use the 970 in the iBook, because of the supporting mobo price, and because of marketing. The best we can hope for is either the G4, or if we are real lucky, a G3+SIMD unit and RIO bus. The nice thing about a G3+ is that it would scale well--if Apple puts a G4 in the iBook then it will bog down at 1 GHz while the closest other Mac will be a 2 GHz eMac. Apple plays a dangerous game using Motorola CPUs, and I for one would like to see Apple thrust a stake into the heart of Moto SPS.

matsu

Where's the statement from IBM that commits/guarantees the 970 will be cheaper than a G4?



I highly doubt it.



It might be cheaper for IBM to make a 970 than it is for moto to make a G4, but that only means that it will be a highly profitable CPU for IBM itself to produce and sell. Given that Apple can't really turn to anyone else, and that the 970 would enter into the upper echelon of desktop CPU's, expect a comensurate price per part. 300mm wafers and .13u fab process are good for IBM, eventually they'll be good for Apple too, but I stress eventually, at least in terms of costs, in terms of performance a 970 would be good right now! I fully expect that MOST PPC 970 parts cost more than all but the top speed G4's and Apple wouldn't put those into an iMac/iBook anyway. With .13u G4's and SMC partnership, G4 yeilds will improve, and moto's prices will come down too.