3 months on ...
For the record (not that it matters much) but here's what I wrote in a big old rant before the fall of Baghdad.
I got the bodycount wrong, but the rest ...
This is a *classic* colonial adventure and Rummy should read some fukcing history books.
The world is a damn sight more dangerous now.
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The US will win. Saddam won't use any WOMD. Basra and Bagdad will fall in a couple of months in a good old fashioned war decided by people shooting at each other with guns and artillery, during which the city will get trashed and thousands of people will die. The people of Iraq remain remain utterly opposed to being invaded and will make the place an absolute hell for the occupying army at first -- and chill a bit when the water and electricity get reconnected (don't doubt but that they're going to get disconnected first). They'll tell of the hell of living under Saddam, which will be worse then we ever thought. Knowing when the war is over will be tricky, as suicide bombs and assassination of US officials will never end throughout Iraq during the period of occupation. They will chill a bit but they will always hate you.
Then, within months, while the US army keeps the peace, the UN will install a Muslim to lead a transitional government who will have the clamouring support of every Iraqi; the country will become a shining beacon of peace and civil wealth as the economy rebuilds itself with oil money flowing into local industrial companies who rebuild the country enriching ordinary citizens who feel, for the first time in decades, free. A proud, rich, democratic Arab state.
Oops, my mistake. A retired US general will turn up for an indefinite period (years) and Iraqi oil money will be used to rebuild the country by paying rich American companies. Iraqis will work for them resentfully and angrily, feeling that all their suspicions of a neo-colonial adventure were absolutely justified. The administration will make choices to the benefit of US interests and not Iraq (Will Jay Garner join Iraq up in OPEC, which is in its interest? Will Iraq join Afghanistan and get a nice new American CDMA mobile network incompatible with all its neighbours and 80% of the world?). Maybe the constant unrest sees the US administration promising to hand over to Iraqis "once there is peace in the land."
Best case. The case that doesn't see Syria and Iran involved at this stage (their time will come). Or Turkey. Or Israeli nukes.
---
I got the bodycount wrong, but the rest ...
This is a *classic* colonial adventure and Rummy should read some fukcing history books.
The world is a damn sight more dangerous now.
---
The US will win. Saddam won't use any WOMD. Basra and Bagdad will fall in a couple of months in a good old fashioned war decided by people shooting at each other with guns and artillery, during which the city will get trashed and thousands of people will die. The people of Iraq remain remain utterly opposed to being invaded and will make the place an absolute hell for the occupying army at first -- and chill a bit when the water and electricity get reconnected (don't doubt but that they're going to get disconnected first). They'll tell of the hell of living under Saddam, which will be worse then we ever thought. Knowing when the war is over will be tricky, as suicide bombs and assassination of US officials will never end throughout Iraq during the period of occupation. They will chill a bit but they will always hate you.
Then, within months, while the US army keeps the peace, the UN will install a Muslim to lead a transitional government who will have the clamouring support of every Iraqi; the country will become a shining beacon of peace and civil wealth as the economy rebuilds itself with oil money flowing into local industrial companies who rebuild the country enriching ordinary citizens who feel, for the first time in decades, free. A proud, rich, democratic Arab state.
Oops, my mistake. A retired US general will turn up for an indefinite period (years) and Iraqi oil money will be used to rebuild the country by paying rich American companies. Iraqis will work for them resentfully and angrily, feeling that all their suspicions of a neo-colonial adventure were absolutely justified. The administration will make choices to the benefit of US interests and not Iraq (Will Jay Garner join Iraq up in OPEC, which is in its interest? Will Iraq join Afghanistan and get a nice new American CDMA mobile network incompatible with all its neighbours and 80% of the world?). Maybe the constant unrest sees the US administration promising to hand over to Iraqis "once there is peace in the land."
Best case. The case that doesn't see Syria and Iran involved at this stage (their time will come). Or Turkey. Or Israeli nukes.
---
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